Tyler Thornburg called up, Tim Dillard Outrighted off 40-man roster

[Oldcity]

Any time a pitcher under 25 has his innings increased by more than 30 from the year before, he is at risk. Thornburg has 136 innings this year. He's at 85 now, so he's on pace for about 160. If he hits 160, he's in great shape for just about a full season next year--hopefully in Milwaukee.

 

Move him to the bullpen, and he doesn't even reach the 136 he had last year in all likelihood. Suddenly, they're looking at either cutting off his season early next year or--more likely--increasing the injury risk of their top prospect.

[ninja33]

Any time a pitcher under 25 has his innings increased by more than 30 from the year before, he is at risk. Thornburg has 136 innings this year. He's at 85 now, so he's on pace for about 160. If he hits 160, he's in great shape for just about a full season next year--hopefully in Milwaukee.

 

Move him to the bullpen, and he doesn't even reach the 136 he had last year in all likelihood. Suddenly, they're looking at either cutting off his season early next year or--more likely--increasing the injury risk of their top prospect.

 

Well then complain about it in 2 or 3 weeks if he's still in the bullpen (and the team is still treading water). Like many have said there's no reason he can't move to the rotation after trading a starting pitcher. Which would leave him with a good chance to hit 150-160 innings. He may need a few AFL starts to get there, but a few weeks in the bullpen aren't going to ruin him. And maybe he thrives there and the team turns it around (Chris sale has been mentioned a few times in this thread)

 

I just don't think it's a big deal until its after the deadline and he's still in the bullpen (unless he looks great and the team is on a tear)

[Baldkin]

Any time a pitcher under 25 has his innings increased by more than 30 from the year before, he is at risk. Thornburg has 136 innings this year. He's at 85 now, so he's on pace for about 160. If he hits 160, he's in great shape for just about a full season next year--hopefully in Milwaukee.

 

Move him to the bullpen, and he doesn't even reach the 136 he had last year in all likelihood. Suddenly, they're looking at either cutting off his season early next year or--more likely--increasing the injury risk of their top prospect.

 

Figure 6IP/start, that means he needs 12 or so starts to get up to 160. Starting every 5.5 days (a longer estimate) means he only has to start for 9ish weeks... which means they have a solid 3 weeks to get him into the rotation.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Any time a pitcher under 25 has his innings increased by more than 30 from the year before, he is at risk. Thornburg has 136 innings this year. He's at 85 now, so he's on pace for about 160. If he hits 160, he's in great shape for just about a full season next year--hopefully in Milwaukee.

 

Move him to the bullpen, and he doesn't even reach the 136 he had last year in all likelihood. Suddenly, they're looking at either cutting off his season early next year or--more likely--increasing the injury risk of their top prospect.

 

Figure 6IP/start, that means he needs 12 or so starts to get up to 160. Starting every 5.5 days (a longer estimate) means he only has to start for 9ish weeks... which means they have a solid 3 weeks to get him into the rotation.

 

Exactly. 3 weeks happens to be right after the trading deadline too. If both Greinke and Marcum are gone, then Thornburg will just slide right into the rotation. This plan will work out fine.

[logan82]

Remember how the Astros acted at every single trade deadline year after year and how bad they sucked for so many years? Yeah, I don't want to be like that.

[Fear The Chorizo]

So the Brewers bring up Thornburg to start off in a bullpen role. That limits his innings during the dog days of the season - If the Brewers fall out of contention and decide to trade a FA starter or two before the deadline, Thornburg shifts into the rotation and easily reaches his hypothetical innings limit of 160, half of which come in the major leagues (which sets up well to giving him every opportunity to start 2013 in Milwaukee's rotation).

 

If by some twist of fate the Brewers play well between now and the trade deadline and are in legitmate playoff contention, it would be very easy to send Thornburg back down to make room for Marcum coming off the DL, where Thornburg could still easily reach his hypothetical innings limit in the minors + arizona fall league.

 

Plus Tim "Kurk-gem" Dillard is no longer throwing gasoline at open flames in the Brewers' bullpen. How is this a bad move again?

[monty57]

It's a bad move only if he remains in the bullpen the rest of the season, because then he will not have enough innings built up to be in the starting rotation all of next year.

 

As to selling, I don't care if we wait nine days unless that nine days means we get a worse package in return. We'll never know how much better the offers are now vs later, but they would be better.

 

As to "should we sell every year the odds are against us," not necessarily. At least nit in grand scale. However, we are in a situation where we are going to lose a pot of talent at the end of the season... probably more than any season in Brewer history. That has to be accounted for. Everything isn't done in a vaccuum.

[RockCoCougars]

However, we are in a situation where we are going to lose a pot of talent at the end of the season... probably more than any season in Brewer history.

 

This is a myth. Outside of Greinke and Marcum, who else of any value won't be under control? K-Rod, Gonzalez and Wolf have been non factors.

[Raw Biz]

However, we are in a situation where we are going to lose a pot of talent at the end of the season... probably more than any season in Brewer history.

 

This is a myth. Outside of Greinke and Marcum, who else of any value won't be under control? K-Rod, Gonzalez and Wolf have been non factors.

 

Well Greinke and Marcum are the 1 and 3 starters out of arguably one of, if not the best, rotations the Brewers ever had. And KRod/Wolf were definitely factors last year and they still provide some value, as they are not replacement players. Sheets/Sabathia might've been better than Greinke/Marcum but when you include another SP, setup man, and SS, that is a lot. It just means there are more holes to fill, even if those holes were "non factors" as you put it.

[hawing]

I'm late to the party, but I'd most like to focus on the fact that Tim Dillard can't hurt the Brewers on the field anymore. I've no doubt he's a good guy, but it's one less bullpen white flag for Ron to wave late in games. Thanks for playing, Tim.

[logan82]

As long as TT is back starting around the trade deadline I like this move. I would hate to see him in the pen for the rest of the season.

[paul253]

I fail to see how this is screwing anyone. Is this going to stop him from being in the rotation next year? No. Is pitching in MLB somehow going to stunt his development? Highly unlikely.

 

Let's ask Wily Peralta about this. It very well may have prevented him from being in the rotation right now. It may have also stunted his developing by the fact that he had at least 5 awful starts since he returned to the Nashville rotation and it took him two months to get back on track. To me, the risk of making him do something he hasn't done as a professional, pitch out of the bullpen, outweighs the possible reward. As another poster mentioned he'd help the team more by replacing Wolf in the rotation.

 

Like many have said there's no reason he can't move to the rotation after trading a starting pitcher.

 

If the Brewers are planning on trading a starting pitcher then what is the point of taking him out of the rotation then putting him right back in in 2 weeks? Why not just keep in the Nashville rotation until the deadline to see where he is needed instead of making him change his routine twice?

[TheCrew07]

Personally I don't think this is a good move at all.

 

If you want a bullpen arm you grab Henderson and give him a shot. You don't take your #1 prospect who needs work on his command and stick him in the bullpen where he doesn't have the opportunity to get regular bullpen sessions. Sure he could jump into the rotation, but then it would be all the hassle of not being stretched out. In fact he's not even stretched out now.

 

As for limiting his innings? To what end? Do people not realize he barely pitched at all in June? He needs to reach 160 innings this season so he's in position to go 180+ next year when he'll really be needed.

 

If this is a one week thing... maybe, maybe I could get behind it. It would have to be extremely temporary, but I don't like where this is going at all.

 

The rationale/justifications being used in this thread don't really make any sense from any kind of macro or developmental point of view. This is exactly how legitimate starting pitching prospects end up being wasted as closers like Jonathan Papelbon.

 

He doesn't need his innings further limited, that happened enough on it's own already. He needs further development as a pitcher, pitching out of Milwaukee's bullpen does nothing to help in that regard. Finally the Brewers have other relief options that deserve a shot like Hand and Henderson who are at the end the of the development cycle already.

[DHonks]

Wainwright learned command in the bullpen. I don't see how this is bad

[Oldcity]

Plus, everyone is pointing to Sale. Well, Sale is already at 30 innings above his entire season last year. The White Sox are really playing with fire there.

[gregmag]

Earl Weaver did okay breaking pitchers in as relievers. (Yeah, I'm old. What about it?)

[HiAndTight]

I understand and agree with you, but last year, at the All-Star break, did anyone really see the Cardinals getting on their tear?

 

It wasn't just the Cardinals going on a tear, it was the Braves falling apart too. This argument only helps if there is one team ahead of you. Currently there are 6.

 

And THIS argument only matters if you're talking about the last week of the season. When you have 80 games left, the number of teams ahead of you is almost insignificant as compared to the number of games you are out. Especially when you play all of those teams.

 

This whole, "we're only____ games out, but behind FOUR teams," argument holds water in late August, and Sept, not early July.

 

And the team ahead of us in the NLC is the Pirates a team that's not ready yet, the Reds, a good team, but not without flaws. The Cards are an old team.

[HiAndTight]

Basing your hopes on memories of the "miracle teams" of the past who have come from behind and won is like going to a casino, seeing the picture of the guy with a million dollar check in front of him and thinking that since he won you could win too. Sure some teams have won, but more haven't.

 

Russ stated that the odds of the Brewers making the 2nd wild card spot are at 5%. Since we're losing so much talent at the end of the season, "going for it" would be like betting your house that you're going to hit 00 on the roulette wheel.

 

 

 

When there is a team or two doing it every single year, someone needs to learn the definition of "miracle."

 

It'd hardly be a "miracle," for a team 6 games out at the ASB in a division that's hardly the best in the game(Arguably the worst) and behind a team that hasn't been .500 in 20 years to get hot when they have the talent this team has and make a run.

 

Someone also needs to read a little closer. I'm not "basing any hopes," I'm providing precedence. As in nearly every year a talented team makes a FAR bigger and far more impressive comeback than the Brewers.

 

 

Not to mention in reading my post, there were a number of other variables.

Fiers success, the possibility of Thornburg stabilizing the pen which I think is a pretty good bet, Weeks hitting very well as of late, Ramirez doing what he does every year and now getting back on pace to put up the numbers he puts up every year, Marcum coming back, having Greinke, Gallardo atop the rotation. And then the "if," comes with Axford and K-Rod returning to last years form.

 

And if they do this in the next month or so coming out of the break and get to .500 and are right in the thick of things, this is their last legitimate chance to contend. One shutdown BP arm along with Axford and K-Rod changes the complexion of this team 100 pct.

 

So if you think that's a "miracle," and equal to winning one million dollars, you've missed an awful lot of baseball the last 10 years especially. Not to mention the extra wild card spot.

 

To claim it would be a "miracle," for this team to get back into the race is at the VERY best hyperbole and at worst just flat out totally, 100 pct ridiculous.

[HiAndTight]

One team can fall apart. Two might. But I severely doubt all 4 teams in front of the Phillies will.

 

The Brewers don't just have to get hot. They have to get hot AND be hotter than 8 other teams just to make the wild card.

 

Exactly, that's what it seems like a lot of people are forgetting about these comebacks, especially last year. With as well as the Cards played, they still might not have made the playoffs had Atlanta won one more game. If Kimbrel hadn't blown his first save since June on Sept. 9 against the Cards, they would have been eliminated (not at the time but in terms of overall record). The Braves went 9-18 in September and the Cards went 23-9. Not only are each of those records rare (for how well each respective teams were playing at that point), but its even rarer for both to happen at the same exact time.

 

 

Again, what month is it? If it was Sept, you'd be absolutely correct. However we're not in Sept.

 

IT'S JULY 10TH. The # of teams is literally almost with 77 games remaining. And again, when it happens nearly every year that some team comes back from 5-6-7-10 games out, it's not a miracle.

 

How many teams where the Angels behind early in the season? I doubt they were as worried about being behind 10 teams as they were about being X number of games out. The number of teams becomes more important as the season moves along, but we're hardly at that point right now.

[Raw Biz]

HiAndTight, its really hard to take you serious when you're so condescending in every post. It's one thing to take a different view or even question something specifically said but when you start telling people they need to learn the definitions of words or to read a little closer, it is just inviting more personal attacks. You seem to do this in a lot of posts and it can easily derail a thread.

 

That being said, obviously its only July but like you said, a lot of things would have to go right for the Brewers for them to make the playoffs. Sure they have potential but I don't think they will reach it. I'm not sure if you would be happy with just making the playoffs but anything less than NLCS/WS is a bust for me.

 

I have no problem waiting a little bit to sell. However, I still think Melvin should at least be taking offers now to gauge interest and see what type of package he might receive. He may very well be doing that behind closed doors but we probably would've heard some rumblings if that were the case. If he decides to sell later, the return may not be as great because A) thats less starts for Greinke to make with that team and B) there was less time to negotiate/play offers against each interested team.

 

Also, at what point do you sell? I'm not sure who all plays one another next but say the Brewers wind up 6 games back after the next 3 series. Then do you sell? Again, I'm not sure if this is possible with the schedule but what if they lose every series but wind up 4 games back with a month left due to other teams playing poorly? I guess it all depends on how well/poor they are playing in combo with the number back. I just think if they're anything more than 5 out and haven't won a bunch, then its time to sell.

[bullox]

I remember way back when, when a certain Brewers minor league pitcher was destroying his competition. Tim Dillard was a beast in 2005 for Brevard County, throwing five complete games in his 28 starts that season, racking up a .977 WHIP and 2.48 ERA. At the time, his strong performances were basically overlooked. He didn't have the stuff to get big league hitters out, people said. Well maybe they were right.

 

Thanks for giving it a shot, Tim.

[torts]

Basing your hopes on memories of the "miracle teams" of the past who have come from behind and won is like going to a casino, seeing the picture of the guy with a million dollar check in front of him and thinking that since he won you could win too. Sure some teams have won, but more haven't.

 

Russ stated that the odds of the Brewers making the 2nd wild card spot are at 5%. Since we're losing so much talent at the end of the season, "going for it" would be like betting your house that you're going to hit 00 on the roulette wheel.

 

 

 

When there is a team or two doing it every single year, someone needs to learn the definition of "miracle."

 

It'd hardly be a "miracle," for a team 6 games out at the ASB in a division that's hardly the best in the game(Arguably the worst) and behind a team that hasn't been .500 in 20 years to get hot when they have the talent this team has and make a run.

 

Someone also needs to read a little closer. I'm not "basing any hopes," I'm providing precedence. As in nearly every year a talented team makes a FAR bigger and far more impressive comeback than the Brewers.

 

 

Not to mention in reading my post, there were a number of other variables.

Fiers success, the possibility of Thornburg stabilizing the pen which I think is a pretty good bet, Weeks hitting very well as of late, Ramirez doing what he does every year and now getting back on pace to put up the numbers he puts up every year, Marcum coming back, having Greinke, Gallardo atop the rotation. And then the "if," comes with Axford and K-Rod returning to last years form.

 

And if they do this in the next month or so coming out of the break and get to .500 and are right in the thick of things, this is their last legitimate chance to contend. One shutdown BP arm along with Axford and K-Rod changes the complexion of this team 100 pct.

 

So if you think that's a "miracle," and equal to winning one million dollars, you've missed an awful lot of baseball the last 10 years especially. Not to mention the extra wild card spot.

 

To claim it would be a "miracle," for this team to get back into the race is at the VERY best hyperbole and at worst just flat out totally, 100 pct ridiculous.

 

12 games remaining against pirates

6 games remaining against cardinals

9 games remaining against reds

9 games remaining against astros

7 games remaining against chicago

 

 

I still believe in this brewers team.

[slappzilla]

Believing is fine. There is a decent chance they could do it, but the odds are not on the Brewers side to say the least.

 

Let's not forget that along with the odds, there's still holes in the lineup due to injuries. That's a lot to overcome and become a contender. I'm not saying pack up and sell now, but like I said in the other thread, after the next 3 series against the division contenders will tell the tale.

[paul253]

When you have 80 games left, the number of teams ahead of you is almost insignificant as compared to the number of games you are out. Especially when you play all of those teams.

 

It is not insignificant at all. By calling it insignificant you are essentially saying that it doesn't matter if they are behind one team or they are behind nine teams because it is all the same. The number of teams ahead of them matters because every single one of them has a better chance to make the playoffs than the Brewers do. Yes there are a lot of games left but that doesn't make the number of teams ahead of them less significant.

 

And there may have 77 games left in the season but they only have 18 games left until they have to decide whether or not to be sellers. To me that number is much more important.

And again, when it happens nearly every year that some team comes back from 5-6-7-10 games out, it's not a miracle.

I'm not sure I'd call it nearly every year that a team comes back from 5-10 games at the all star break. Plus that's a fairly large range. Let's use 6 games because that's how many games we are behind. I don't think you can say that a team comes back from 6 games at the all-star break nearly every single year.

 

Beside, it's not just that were are 6 games out of the last playoff spot. What has this Brewers team shown you this season that makes you believe they can make up 6 games in less than half a season? These are not the 2011 Brewers. This team is very inconsistent, has a terrible bullpen and has been devastated by injuries.

 

I appreciate the confidence in your team. But you don't have to constantly shoot down other people's opinions like this, especially when, quite honestly, the odds are not in your favor.

 

I still believe in this brewers team.

 

I'll ask you the same thing. What has this Brewers team done that makes you believe they can overcome a 6 game lead and pass 6 other teams in the process? The Brewers are 5-10 against teams ahead of them in their division and something like 12-21 vs teams ahead of them in the wild card standings. They can't pass 6 teams by beating the crap teams and losing to everyone else. I hope in 2 months you can tell me I'm wrong but all signs point to this being a below .500 team this year.

[slappzilla]

Let's get this thread back on topic and move the "will the brewers contend" convo to the "2nd half optimism thread"

 

Thornburg was always speculated to be a bullpen arm because of his build, or lack of. I still think the Brewers will use him as long relief and then maybe have him fill a spot if Greinke is traded or if Wolf doesn't get it together, but what do you guys think going forward? Do you think he'll be a bullpen guy will he be a staple in the rotation?