Tyler Thornburg called up, Tim Dillard Outrighted off 40-man roster

[HiAndTight]

I almost don't want them to do well during this stretch because then they won't sell off Greinke, KRod, etc. or worse, they might actually buy. I know I've said it a lot but this is not a playoff team (even if you added Thornburg and a couple of guys to the bullpen) and they likely wouldn't make it far even if they made the playoffs. Now is the time to restock for the future.

 

 

 

Respectfully, I think this is asinine. Again, I'm very honestly not trying to come off as a jerk here, but to say this is or isn't a playoff team if they get hot and go on a run is ridiculous in my opinion.

 

They haven't PLAYED like a playoff team early, but neither have SEVERAL of the teams that have been in the WS and won it over the last decade.

 

If you have a rotation of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum coming back, Fiers, Estrada and Wolf...whoever is in there.

 

A BP that sees Axford and K-Rod pitch like they've pitched most of their career prior to this year, same with Veras get the ship righted, and Thornburg can come up and provide a big boost out of the pen, then they've EASILY got the pitching potential to put it together.

 

Offensively, you're already starting to see this team turn it around. Weeks has been hot as of late, Braun's having a BETTER year than before, Aoki is performing at very high level and has been an exceptional leadoff hitter. Ramirez is doing what he always does, Lucroy coming back, and Maldonado provide an exceptional catching tandem....

 

And if they can pick up a SS they want to roll the dice on for cheap, this team absolutely CAN be a playoff team. And with Hart at first, our IF defense seems night and day different.

 

This team has not PLAYED like a playoff team, but they've absolutely got the potential. They need the players struggling a great deal to turn it around, and that's happening for the most part, and they need a couple X factors. Fiers has turned into one, and if he can keep doing what he's doing or close to it, we're in great shape, and if Thornburg can come up and cut his teeth out of the pen and give us a similar upgrade, there's no reason at all we can't be a playoff team. And a dangerous one once we get in.

 

 

Now there is a HUGE gap from potential to production, and this team has to prove itself before it gets lumped in with the Marlins from '02(I think), the Rockies from a few years ago, the 83 win Cardinals, the couple A's teams from the early 2000's, the Giants from a couple of years ago, all teams that I'm sure had fans saying, "this is NOT a playoff team."

 

Just just strictly with the POTENTIAL they have on the mound, and the big bats they've got, there is no QUESTION they're a team that could go on a run and be a playoff team.

 

 

 

***I will say I don't want to go into the trade deadline where we are right now and hope that those things fall into place, but wishing we don't do well so we don't try to add a player to help us in what is shaping up to potentially be the last potential shot we're going to have in a VERY long time...is just beyond foolish to me. Why the heck WOULDN'T we want them to get back into the race out of the break? So we can get a head start on the 75 win teams once we lose our Free Agents and become disinterested in the big league club? It's very much a long shot this team manages to do anything meaningful this year. But they certainly have a team capable of going from 5 under to 5 over in a two week period, and the Pirates are NOT a great team, nor are the Reds. Nor where the Cardinals who overcame a what, 9 game deficit last year to make the playoffs in the last MONTH!

 

I remember reading their board on ESPN.com about how they weren't a playoff team either. Lets give them a couple weeks vs the teams they're contending with, give Thornburg and Fiers a shot to be those X-factors just about every team needs to make it to the WS and THEN declare definitively we are not a playoff team.

[brewmann04]

I don't think Marco should be going back to the Pen and has pitched better than Wolf. But if you move Wolf they be a concern for all RHP rotation. If they are going for it in the next 9 games

they need to sit Ransom and Izturus also.

[Thurston Fluff]

I almost don't want them to do well during this stretch because then they won't sell off Greinke, KRod, etc. or worse, they might actually buy. I know I've said it a lot but this is not a playoff team (even if you added Thornburg and a couple of guys to the bullpen) and they likely wouldn't make it far even if they made the playoffs. Now is the time to restock for the future.

 

I 'm sorry but I don't buy the doom and gloom. This team is essentially the same one they had last season minus Fielder. Remember several year back when the Astros where sub .500 around the all star break. They then went on to win the division and go to the World Series. How about the Rockies a few years ago? Same thing. That happens frequently enough to think a talented team can win even if it starts out poorly. This team has talent. Their weakness is the bullpen. They are addressing that weakness in an effort to make a playoff push. Over the course of a season I want the team to always try to get to the playoffs until it is no feasible way to get there. They now have a 9 game stretch that will go a long way towards determining that feasibility. I want them to do everything possible to win now. This move as well as the Bianchi move do just that. Teams who have talent should never give up on a season until necessary. The more season's you try to get into the playoffs the more chances you have of actually making them. Conversely the more times you quit the fewer chances you have.

[HiAndTight]

Good move, glad to see the Brewers are shaking things up a bit, Thorny gets some more MLB innings and possibly put into the rotation if/when we trade Greinke/Marcum.

 

Must we do this with everyone?

 

Although, I'm sure RR is already one step ahead of us here.

 

I think when we as posters are adding "y" and "ie" on the end of the players names, it is meant as sarcasm, directed at RR's cute little disgustingly creepy nicknames...

 

 

This is a shot at RR? I think this is a shot at baseball in general. This is how all managers talk(hyperbole obviously, but most of them). Yost used to get made fun of for it, and I hear every team doing the exact same thing with their players....and the players themselves do the same thing.

 

Nobody ever says a players actual name. If you can add the "ie," or "y" to it,you do. Otherwise you cut it short. Luke(for Lucroy...ect..etc..etc...).

 

 

 

Just another one of baseball's silly little quirks. And I fully admit it does sound creepy to hear a guy in his mid 50's call a 20 year old kid Thorny or something to that affect, but that's the game we all love!

[PrinceEatMeat]

I love this move. Thornburg should be able to help the pen, and limit his innings at the same time. It's a good way to get his feet wet, and then he can move into the rotation when the need arises. It's very similar to Chris Sale as previously mentioned.

[paul253]

I would guess most posters here agree with the move, I do

 

I don't. I hate this move. You take the number #1 pitching prospect in the entire system, one who is probably going to be counted on heavily next season at the major league level as a starter, and ship him off to rot in the bullpen while Randy Wolf and Marco Estrada continue to make starts? Why? We have a dozen other guys who could do that. Wily Peralta came up and pitched out of the bullpen and when he returned to the Nashville rotation he fell apart. He is just now getting back into a groove. I can't say it was completely related but why even risk that with Thornburg? Why do anything to disrupt his normal routine?

 

This move just defines to me how Doug Melvin and his managers run this organization and renews my fear the even if he does trade Zack Greinke he is going to blow it by insisting on lower ceiling major league talent in return. This organization just will not give a young player the benefit of the doubt and give him a chance without making him prove himself first. The few times they do (Lucroy, Fiers) happen out of absolute desperation when there is literally nobody else to turn to.

 

And for all those who point to the fact that we are only 6 out of the wildcard spot, while it's true, we just have to hope we can pass Miami, Arizona, San Francisco, St Louis, New York and Atlanta. My point being that while we are only 6 out, there are 6 teams in a better position to grab the last wildcard spot right now than we are. Changing the long man in your bullpen isn't going to make any sort of significant impact on your chances. Tim Dillard isn't the reason we are 5 games under .500 right now.

[chuckiehacks]

I'm ok with this. There have been success stories with teams that have brought guys up and started them in the pen. The Twins have done it a few times, someone else already mentioned Sale. One other thing to consider is that there are scouting reports (Keith Law is the one that immediately comes to mind) that do not project Thornburg to stay as a starter due to his flyball tendencies and lack of downhill plane. Now might be a good time to see what he can do in a late inning role. Just because he's taking Dillard's spot on the roster doesn't mean he's taking Dillard's role. I'd like to see what he can do with some high leverage 7th innings.

[RockCoCougars]

No problems with the move whatsoever. The bullpen has been trash, and maybe this will help during this big stretch of games. From what I've seen, many project Thornburg to be a reliever at some point anyway. Even if they plan on starting him down the road, lots of guys have started in the pen before becoming very successful starters.

[craigharmann]

"they're 6 games out of the Wild Card."

 

Being 6 games out of the race to have a 50% of making the real playoffs doesn't sound very exciting to me. And as you pointed out, there are a million teams ahead of them. 5 times are within half a game of the first wildcard spot! If the Brewers win and the Reds, Braves, Giants, Mets and Cards lose on Friday, the Brewers will gain a full game!

 

Coolstandings.com gives the Brewers a 5.0% chance of securing a wildcard spot and playing one game to determine whether they make the playoffs. In addition, hey give the Brewers a 1.5% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs outright. I'm OK with holding off for 9 games before selling but if the Brewers are in a similar position after that, give it up already.

 

I understand and agree with you, but last year, at the All-Star break, did anyone really see the Cardinals getting on their tear? Heck, even the Central isn't guaranteed. The Cardinals are fragile, have a rookie manager, the Pirates are young and very well may or may not come back to earth, so there's always that potential. However, the only way anything changes is if the Brewers start winning. Not just 1 or 2 games here or there, 8 out of 10 or more along those lines. If that doesn't happen, especially over the next 9 games and following, then, yeah, I'm all on board with selling. Sadly, what we're selling probably won't get much or a return, if at all.

[paul253]

From what I've seen, many project Thornburg to be a reliever at some point anyway. Even if they plan on starting him down the road, lots of guys have started in the pen before becoming very successful starters.

 

The guys has had a tremendous amount of success as a starter at every single level he's pitched at and you are ok with him moving to the bullpen because some scouts said he looked like a reliever? And yes some guys have started off as relievers before moving to the rotation but even more of them have gone directly to starting. Pitching out of the bullpen is not a requirement to be a major league pitcher.

[Raw Biz]

If a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ass when he hopped.

 

Yes this team has potential. But Manny Parra has had potential for years. Jose Veras had potential because of his stuff. What I'm saying is I don't see this team being able to live up to that potential. KRod has always given up lots of baserunners but this year he hasn't been able to keep them from scoring. Axford has had trouble locating his curveball all year. Wolf has looked pretty bad. We don't know when Marcum is coming back. There's just too many WHAT IFS for me.

 

I really think they that Melvin & Co. think they can be last year's Cardinals. Their bullpen was a mess too last year and they were like 8 games out but won it all. Of course the main reason that happened was an epic collapse by the Braves, as well as the trades for Furcal, Rzcepskcaioejaofiaski, and Jackson. I really don't want the Brewers trading anyone else away thinking they can follow in the Cards footsteps.

 

Look at what Russ wrote regarding percentages and making the playoffs. Yeah I know those percentages aren't gospel but they aren't very inspiring either. I'm usually optimistic but I'm also trying to be realistic here. There are too many WHAT IFS and I think losing Greinke/Marcum/Wolf/KRod/Etc. for a few draft picks won't do anything to help the team for 4-5 years.

 

I just think it's smarter to get some value now (obviously if you're getting value back and I think there will be talent available for at least Greinke) instead of waiting for that slim chance that everything falls exactly into place. I'd rather try to stock up a bit and prepare for 2014 and beyond than hope everything goes right this year and then have to wait until 2017 and beyond.

[paul253]

I understand and agree with you, but last year, at the All-Star break, did anyone really see the Cardinals getting on their tear?

 

It wasn't just the Cardinals going on a tear, it was the Braves falling apart too. This argument only helps if there is one team ahead of you. Currently there are 6.

[HiAndTight]

"they're 6 games out of the Wild Card."

 

Being 6 games out of the race to have a 50% of making the real playoffs doesn't sound very exciting to me. And as you pointed out, there are a million teams ahead of them. 5 times are within half a game of the first wildcard spot! If the Brewers win and the Reds, Braves, Giants, Mets and Cards lose on Friday, the Brewers will gain a full game!

 

Coolstandings.com gives the Brewers a 5.0% chance of securing a wildcard spot and playing one game to determine whether they make the playoffs. In addition, hey give the Brewers a 1.5% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs outright. I'm OK with holding off for 9 games before selling but if the Brewers are in a similar position after that, give it up already.

 

 

I think it's totally 100 pct irrelevant how many teams are ahead of us with 80 games to play. I heard Rock say that the other day when talking about the Phillies. How they were 11 games out. Then BA said, and they're behind....however many teams and Rock said, "and that's even MORE important."

 

No, no it is not. Not halfway through the season. I guarantee they'd rather be 2 games out behind 10 teams than 11 games out and behind 5 for a playoff spot.

 

 

I agree 100 pct with your last sentence though. I'm MORE than fine with waiting a period of time to give this team a chance to come out of the break hot and maybe put together a 12-3 streak before we have a firesale.

 

I think people are underestimating this team. I think the Aoki/Hart moves, Fiers move, and now the Thornburg move with a lot of our guys playing closer to their normal levels gives this team a real shot. To play with anybody.

 

 

And if it doesn't happen, try to cushion the blow so that we can be as competitive as possible as soon as possible with the trade assets we have. But as for now, we're still talented enough, and close enough that I'm not ready to wave the white flag. Of course the back of the pen has to turn it around like a lot of other players are.

[RockCoCougars]

From what I've seen, many project Thornburg to be a reliever at some point anyway. Even if they plan on starting him down the road, lots of guys have started in the pen before becoming very successful starters.

 

The guys has had a tremendous amount of success as a starter at every single level he's pitched at and you are ok with him moving to the bullpen because some scouts said he looked like a reliever? And yes some guys have started off as relievers before moving to the rotation but even more of them have gone directly to starting. Pitching out of the bullpen is not a requirement to be a major league pitcher.

 

I didn't say that I wanted him to be a reliever forever. If he's going to be babied the rest of the way regardless, may as well do it from the pen in Milwaukee. He certainly appears to be a better option than Dillard, and I wouldn't be surprised if he steps into a starting role soon anyway.

[Baldkin]

"they're 6 games out of the Wild Card."

 

Being 6 games out of the race to have a 50% of making the real playoffs doesn't sound very exciting to me. And as you pointed out, there are a million teams ahead of them. 5 times are within half a game of the first wildcard spot! If the Brewers win and the Reds, Braves, Giants, Mets and Cards lose on Friday, the Brewers will gain a full game!

 

Coolstandings.com gives the Brewers a 5.0% chance of securing a wildcard spot and playing one game to determine whether they make the playoffs. In addition, hey give the Brewers a 1.5% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs outright. I'm OK with holding off for 9 games before selling but if the Brewers are in a similar position after that, give it up already.

 

 

I think it's totally 100 pct irrelevant how many teams are ahead of us with 80 games to play. I heard Rock say that the other day when talking about the Phillies. How they were 11 games out. Then BA said, and they're behind....however many teams and Rock said, "and that's even MORE important."

 

No, no it is not. Not halfway through the season. I guarantee they'd rather be 2 games out behind 10 teams than 11 games out and behind 5 for a playoff spot.

 

One team can fall apart. Two might. But I severely doubt all 4 teams in front of the Phillies will.

 

The Brewers don't just have to get hot. They have to get hot AND be hotter than 8 other teams just to make the wild card.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The chances the Brewers get back into the race aren't great, but unless someone beats down the door with a "Profar-like" prospect or big time haul to get the Greinke deal done they might as well give it a shot over the next couple weeks. If they are going to go for it, why not try and help the pen with a guy like Thornburg. I'd rather he stay a starter long term as well, but the experience of pitching in the bigs and potentially being effective in that role should offset any negatives of not starting for awhile. He'll still get his innings in and probably be fine for next year if that's what his role is.

 

I do also hope they are realistic with themselves if they are in the same place in 2 weeks. At that point it's trade anything they can versus any potential draft picks...and take the best they can get. It just seems the Greinke to XYZ for 3-4 ok prospects deal will be there at the deadline as much as it is now. It doesn't seem the aggressor is willing to step up with the get it done type offer yet so why not play it out a little more.

[Raw Biz]

One team can fall apart. Two might. But I severely doubt all 4 teams in front of the Phillies will.

 

The Brewers don't just have to get hot. They have to get hot AND be hotter than 8 other teams just to make the wild card.

 

Exactly, that's what it seems like a lot of people are forgetting about these comebacks, especially last year. With as well as the Cards played, they still might not have made the playoffs had Atlanta won one more game. If Kimbrel hadn't blown his first save since June on Sept. 9 against the Cards, they would have been eliminated (not at the time but in terms of overall record). The Braves went 9-18 in September and the Cards went 23-9. Not only are each of those records rare (for how well each respective teams were playing at that point), but its even rarer for both to happen at the same exact time.

[RockCoCougars]

"they're 6 games out of the Wild Card."

No, no it is not. Not halfway through the season. I guarantee they'd rather be 2 games out behind 10 teams than 11 games out and behind 5 for a playoff spot.

 

One team can fall apart. Two might. But I severely doubt all 4 teams in front of the Phillies will.

 

The Brewers don't just have to get hot. They have to get hot AND be hotter than 8 other teams just to make the wild card.

 

I'm personally not convinced that the season is lost with 80 games left. Let's face it, they are chasing the Pirates. Kick the probabilities around all that you want, but what were the probabilities last year on this date that the Brewers would end up 25 games ahead of the Pirates (who they were neck and neck with at the time). Yes, they are behind a lot of teams, but look at some of those teams right now. First, they are right with Arizona and Florida, and we've seen first hand how flawed those teams are. The Dodgers are playing terrible ball right now and has anyone seen the Mets bullpen- (probably just as bad as the Brewers)? That leaves the Braves, Cardinals and Reds. The Brewers will get plenty of opportunities to gain ground on the latter two and the former collapsed big time last season and currently have a very leaky starting rotation.

 

Bottom line, the Brewers are probably going to have to play around .600 ball the rest of the way to get into the playoffs. I'd say that's possible, not likely... but not as unlikely as some here seem to think.

 

No matter what, for those calling for a slew of trades, nothing is going to be done until the end of next week at the earliest. If the Brewers play like crap against the division teams, I'll join the sell bandwagon, but there is no reason that they shouldn't be able to handle the Pirates and Cardinals at home.

[monty57]

Basing your hopes on memories of the "miracle teams" of the past who have come from behind and won is like going to a casino, seeing the picture of the guy with a million dollar check in front of him and thinking that since he won you could win too. Sure some teams have won, but more haven't.

 

Russ stated that the odds of the Brewers making the 2nd wild card spot are at 5%. Since we're losing so much talent at the end of the season, "going for it" would be like betting your house that you're going to hit 00 on the roulette wheel.

[reillymcshane]

Well, if they don't see Dillard as a major leaguer, then good for them to get rid of him.

 

I think Dillard can be successful if he's limited against lefties, but even lately he's been bad against both lefties and righties. So it's hard to argue with this one.

[brewmann04]

the Brewers will need to go at least 7-2 in their next 9 games to have any type of shot.

[RockCoCougars]

Basing your hopes on memories of the "miracle teams" of the past who have come from behind and won is like going to a casino, seeing the picture of the guy with a million dollar check in front of him and thinking that since he won you could win too. Sure some teams have won, but more haven't.

 

Russ stated that the odds of the Brewers making the 2nd wild card spot are at 5%. Since we're losing so much talent at the end of the season, "going for it" would be like betting your house that you're going to hit 00 on the roulette wheel.

 

Teams (generally multiple teams) collapse every year for various reasons. Heck, anyone who's been a Garner/Yost era-Brewers fan should know that all too well. Going further, they'd have never made the playoffs in '08 had the Mets not imploded. Knowing this, I'm not concerned about all the teams ahead of them or the probabilities that some website has for a playoff appearance. I want to know what the odds that the Brewers can win 48 of their last 80 games, because if they do that, I'd be willing to bet they make it (and maybe win the division). I think that those odds are slightly better than 1 in 20, especially considering that they won 52 of their final 80 last year. No matter what, the first 9 games are crucial.

[Oldcity]

Screwing with their top prospect to save a team whose chances are next to nil anyway.

 

Yeah, sounds like a Brewers move.

 

The funny thing is he'd help their chances more by replacing Wolf, but we all know Wolfy's job is safe as long as he's here.

[fondybrewfan]

I fail to see how this is screwing anyone. Is this going to stop him from being in the rotation next year? No. Is pitching in MLB somehow going to stunt his development? Highly unlikely. If haveing Thornburg pitching in MIL rather than Dillard going to improve the team? Yes. Hell Thornburg is even getting a nice paycheck out of this; I am sure he appreciates it.

 

I really don't understand why people are so upset about MIL using a good starting prospect in relif for 3 weeks until undoubtedly someone gets traded and he moves into the rotation. Even a best case scenario where we make a big time run just means we have a power guy in the bullpen to go to for the rest of the year. I fail to see the downside. Thornburg isn't going to get any better pitching in AAA where a large portion of the hitters are washed up retreads or roster fillers at best.

[Thurston Fluff]

The Brewers don't just have to get hot. They have to get hot AND be hotter than 8 other teams just to make the wild card.

 

I don't think how many teams are ahead means all that much until the last month or so. Yes they do have to be better than 8 other teams. But the key is how much better do they have to be? If all they have to be is slightly better I don't think it's all that big of a deal. Currently they need to be a maximum of 6 games better than all of those teams over an 80 game stretch. Considering this is a essentially the same team as last season and now was about the time we got hot last season I don't think it's out of the question.

Coolstandings.com gives the Brewers a 5.0% chance of securing a wildcard spot and playing one game to determine whether they make the playoffs. In addition, hey give the Brewers a 1.5% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs outright.

 

I'm not sure the accuracy the odds are of a particular team making a run based off how past teams fared. I honestly don't hold a lot of credence to the precise odds. Don't get me wrong I think the odds are not good but I'm not sold they are as low as 5% for this particular team. They have good starting pitching and a decent offense. Their defense has also been pretty good. The only weakness is the pen right now. But lets assume the odds are accurate for this team. The question then becomes at what odds do you sell? Is a 25% chance of making it to the playoffs enough to make a run? Should we sell when the odds are under 50%? After all the odds say you won't make it and the players could be turned over for a better future couldn't they? I do know one thing for sure. The odds of getting to the playoffs if we give up now are lower than 5%. If we sell every time the odds say it's 5% doesn't that mean we give up a lot of season's with a slim chance of the playoffs? Wouldn't it stand to reason that one of those season's we'd beat the odds. Don't we have more chances of beating the odds once if we try every time? Conversely wouldn't we guarantee not to ever beat the odds if we always give up? Are the chances of a team making the playoffs over a decade better if we play to win even when the odds are against us than if we give up every time?

I'm OK with holding off for 9 games before selling but if the Brewers are in a similar position after that, give it up already.

 

I think that is a fair compromise between the two extremes. I'm not for false hope but I'm not convinced right now that our hope is false. 9 games against teams we have to make up some ground against will go a long way towards where we stand.