Perhaps a more rational discussion of the bullpen woes

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Is there a statistical out there to see how many more wins we would have with a league average bullpen? I am just interested what our record could be with a decent bullpen

It looks like the Brewers are about .8 ERA over the average in the first half for relievers. If they average roughly 3 innings/game, that's a little over .26 runs/game over the average.

 

Maybe Russ can help here...over 81 games, giving up an extra quarter run per game...how many losses is that?

 

I guess another way would be to look at Russ's analysis on how many blown saves we've had over the average. I'm not sure how that works, since Veras or KRod have blown saves by not holding leads as well. I think they have 15 blown saves ytd with Axford having 5 of them. If he was closer to 1/8 of the attempts, and adding in fewer blown saves (or holds) for the 7th & 8th inning guys...not sure what that would be. I'm guessing these ways would put the pen adding 3-5 losses so far.

 

Maybe expecting a repeat of 2011 was asking too much, but I certainly thought they'd be at least league average.

[PKBadger]

The odds of a pitcher recording an out on the first 3 batters is about 28%. Allowing a base runner in 23 out of 28 innings isn't a big deal.

 

 

Starting every batter you face with a 1-0 count can't help those odds. The guy is allergic to throwing strikes.

[reillymcshane]

Jose Veras has a WHIP of 1.83.

 

For players with 20 or more innings pitched, he ranks 370th out of 378 pitchers.

 

That is really sucking.

[FVBrewerFan]

Dillard has better numbers across the board compared to Veras. Case closed. But back to the original question, what do they do next year? We need a better plan than "oh well, bullpens are inconsistent."

[torts]

Dillard has better numbers across the board compared to Veras. Case closed. But back to the original question, what do they do next year? We need a better plan than "oh well, bullpens are inconsistent."

 

spend a full draft year and pick nothing but pitchers who can hit or hitters who can pitch

[slappzilla]

So when you responded to the writer did you use Axford's twitter handle so he would see it or was he following you?

I retweeted the writer's tweet when I responded to him and ya, Axford's handle was in the retweet. It wasn't purpose at all.

[jerichoholicninja]

Dillard has better numbers across the board compared to Veras. Case closed. But back to the original question, what do they do next year? We need a better plan than "oh well, bullpens are inconsistent."

 

Frankly, I would get rid of them all. Trade Axford and non-tender everyone else. Next year put Peralta and the other top starting prospects who don't make the rotation in the bullpen and sign whatever relievers don't have a job come spring training to minor league deals. If nothing else it will be a cheap bullpen and make it easy to cut the guys that suck.

[Polish Falcons]

Is there a statistical out there to see how many more wins we would have with a league average bullpen? I am just interested what our record could be with a decent bullpen

 

 

One way to look at it - the average bullpen in the national league has a 67% save rate. The Brewers bullpen only has a 53% save rate (16 saves out of 30 chances). If the Brewers bullpen saved 67% of all chances, they would have 20 saves instead of 16 for a difference of 4 more wins. Then they wold be 42-40 instead of 38-44. 4 games out instead of 8. I'm sure there are more advanced ways to look at it, yet this sounds about right to me.

 

There are also times when the bullpen comes into a tie game or a close game, and ruin everything, which doesn't relate to save opportunities. So maybe they would have another 1-2 wins if they just keep the team in close games, but I wouldn't know how to measure that against the league average.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/league/nl/type/expanded

[jjfanec]

Is there a statistical out there to see how many more wins we would have with a league average bullpen? I am just interested what our record could be with a decent bullpen

 

 

One way to look at it - the average bullpen in the national league has a 67% save rate. The Brewers bullpen only has a 53% save rate (16 saves out of 30 chances). If the Brewers bullpen saved 67% of all chances, they would have 20 saves instead of 16 for a difference of 4 more wins. Then they wold be 42-40 instead of 38-44. 4 games out instead of 8. I'm sure there are more advanced ways to look at it, yet this sounds about right to me.

 

There are also times when the bullpen comes into a tie game or a close game, and ruin everything, which doesn't relate to save opportunities. So maybe they would have another 1-2 wins if they just keep the team in close games, but I wouldn't know how to measure that against the league average.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/league/nl/type/expanded

 

That makes sense. I would have thought we would be a few games over .500 with a decent bullpen. Sad to think we could be right in the mix but that is how it goes I guess

[RockCoCougars]

On the bright side, consider that the Cardinals bullpen blew game after game last season until they were double digits back. Then, the pen got better, the team got hot and the rest is history....

 

A guy can dream, right?

[rluzinski]

One way to look at it - the average bullpen in the national league has a 67% save rate. The Brewers bullpen only has a 53% save rate (16 saves out of 30 chances). If the Brewers bullpen saved 67% of all chances, they would have 20 saves instead of 16 for a difference of 4 more wins. Then they wold be 42-40 instead of 38-44. 4 games out instead of 8. I'm sure there are more advanced ways to look at it, yet this sounds about right to me.

 

I think that is a reasonable way to look at it but to compare apples to apples, you'd have to consider the context of those save opportunities. The bullpen has been bad anyway you look at it but the Brewers might also have had a lot more closer games than average so far.

 

A context neutral way to look first at it is to simple see how many extra runs over average the relievers have given up. Looks like an average bullpen would have given up 24 less runs over the same number of innings as the Brewers:

 

RS: 369

RA: 384

RA: 359 (with average bullpen)

 

Pythagorean: 39 wins

Pythagorean Adjusted: 42 wins

 

So the context neutral way gives us 3 extra wins. The correct answer to how many wins the bullpen has cost is "we don't know" but an estimate of 3-4 extra wins is a decent guess.

 

Last year, the Brewers won more games than their collective talent probably suggested and this year, the opposite might true. Unfortunately, the Brewers might have made the playoffs even without the little luck and this year, they have no chance with even a shred of bad luck. They projected to be a just a hair above average before all the injuries.

[reillymcshane]

My bullpen solution is as follows:

 

1. Let K-Rod go (if we bag the season now, just getting salary relief would be fine).

2. Let Loe go via FA. He's okay, but nothing special. You can consider having him back if you can get him at about $1.5 on a one year deal.

3. According to the BF.net salary page, Veras is a FA. Let him walk.

4. Let Manny Parra go. He's got one more year until FA, but he'll make $2 million and he's maddeningly inconsistent.

5. Keep Axford. It's a risk, but that's okay. He's been great for two years. Let's see if he can fix things by 2013.

6. Target a couple of good relievers in free agency - see if you can get them on 2 year deals. Examples include Mike Adams and Grant Balfour (perhaps other players fit just as well - these are just examples). Yes they cost $3-4 million or so a year. Sure those kind of guys can fluctuate in performance. Sure those kind of guys are getting older. But if they stay healthy, they are likely to be good (sometimes even great). And you don't have to pay them closer money.

7. Move Mark Rogers to the bullpen. Let him focus on mastering two pitches. Let him focus on throwing strikes. He could be a great asset if he could do so.

8. Let Dillard, McClendon and Henderson compete for spots on the roster.

9. Consider adding Peralta, Thornburg, Fiers and Estrada to the bullpen if they they don't make the starting rotation.

10. I would probably add a situational lefty.

 

No, it's not perfect. Not by a long shot. You need Axford to rebound. I'm spreading K-Rod's $8 million over a couple vets that we hope can provide some stability. You add in some young, power arms (Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers) - especially if the player doesn't make the rotation. Then you mix in other guys to round out the mix.

 

You can also, potentially, add some guys if we trade Marcum and/or Greinke.

[Raw Biz]

Consider adding Peralta, Thornburg, Fiers and Estrada to the bullpen if they they don't make the starting rotation.

 

The only problem with this is if Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf are all gone, those are likely our 2-5 starters (without adding anyone via FA). I know you said if they don't make the starting rotation but I would bet Estrada and Fiers are pretty much locked in at this point. And if Peralta finishes the year strong, he will most likely make the rotation as well.

[reillymcshane]

Consider adding Peralta, Thornburg, Fiers and Estrada to the bullpen if they they don't make the starting rotation.

 

The only problem with this is if Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf are all gone, those are likely our 2-5 starters (without adding anyone via FA). I know you said if they don't make the starting rotation but I would bet Estrada and Fiers are pretty much locked in at this point. And if Peralta finishes the year strong, he will most likely make the rotation as well.

At this point, you have to feel Fiers is a lock for 2013. Also Gallardo.

 

That leaves Narveson, Peralta, Thornburg and Estrada in position to wrap up the rotation. It would be gutsy to go with two rookies in the rotation, but if they are the best guys, great.

 

That said, if need to find three starting pitchers, adding a FA is probably wise. You could add a modestly priced player on a one or two year deal. Someone less than $10 million annually.

 

If you lose Parra, Loe, Veras, K-Rod, Morgan, Gonzalez, Wolf Greinke and Marcum the team is shedding about $50 million in payroll. You need about $15 million to cover raises and arbitration cases, so you could spend some cash on a couple of relievers as well as one mid-back of the rotation guy. An example is a guy like Paul Malholm signed a one year deal for $5 million, with a $6.5 million option for 2013. Or Joe Saunders signed for one year/$6 million. Or the the deal that the Pirates made to get Burnett. Again, these are just examples. If you are, indeed, replacing three starters, you could fill one via free agency - or a trade like Burnett - where you aren't really doing anything but take on salary.

 

Can't forget - you still have to fill the shortstop position - so you need some money for that.

[rluzinski]

I wouldn't spend more than $2-3$ mil for any reliever, personally. They don't pitch enough to be worth much more than that anyway.

[fondybrewfan]

I don't understand why Henderson hasn't been given a shot. He certainly can't be any worse than what we are throwing out there now.

[TooLiveBrew]

You can't throw unproven young guys into the thick of a playoff race!

[TURBO]

I don't see why ANYONE hasn't been given a shot to be honest. Each and every night the guys we throw out of the bullpen don't/can't/won't get the job done. It isn't like any of them have looked good, they have all stunk the joint up. No way can anyone else do any worse.

[Thurston Fluff]

That said, if need to find three starting pitchers, adding a FA is probably wise. You could add a modestly priced player on a one or two year deal. Someone less than $10 million annually.

 

Another Bradon Looper is what you get for one or two year contracts for under $10 million.

4. Let Manny Parra go. He's got one more year until FA, but he'll make $2 million and he's maddeningly inconsistent.

 

Yes he is but same can be said of most relievers. I think the best way to do it is to take as many bites at the apple as possible. Add in an established guy or two with a decent track record of success along with Loe and Parra then get a bunch of guys who throw hard and let them fight it out for a couple spots. That's how we stabilized some bullpens in the past. We'd get a good year or so out of the likes of Turnbow or Kolb and everything sort of came together. But to get the one success we'd need more than one guy like that. Some guys who didn't pan out here went on to do better elsewhere in the same fashion too. Grant Balfour comes to mind as well as Choate to a degree.

[Funketown]

Below is a list of all FA SP's who signed deals worth between $6-12MM last offseason:

 

Harang: 100 IP, 3.51 ERA

Chen: 99 IP, 3.64 ERA

Capuano: 106 IP, 2.62 ERA

Kuroda: 108 IP, 3.50 ERA

Chen: 95 IP, 4.83 ERA

Wada: DL

Joe Saunders: 81 IP, 3.44 ERA

 

I don't expect a lot of these guys to continue to be so productive, nor do I know who would be available next offseason, but if the Brewers could get that type of production for 2 years/ $10 MM I think we'd all be happy. I'm not sure Wolf will be any better than these types of signings next year, so at $8.5MM to keep him around I don't think that happens. We all know Greinke and Marcum are gone. They're almost going to need to make at least one FA signing for a SP.

 

I was looking through the organizational depth chart and it is not very promising when it comes to bullpen arms for this year and next. Henderson and Hand look like another two guys that could be back end of the bullpen guys. Wooten has pretty solid numbers but he hasn't been nearly as dominant since missing 2010. I know nothing about Jesus Sanchez but he seemed to put up solid numbers in ~25 AA innings. We've all seen Juan Perez and I'm not sure we need to see him again.

 

I'm not sure what to do about this bullpen going forward. It's a mess, and I hope it doesn't force Melvin to sign a David Riske type to a $12MM deal this offseason.

[rickh150]

Dealing K-Rod probably will happen before Greinke.

[Thurston Fluff]

While it turned out to be so I don't think the Riske deal was a bad move. He was durable and put up decent numbers over a relatively long period of time. The odds of him getting hurt or not performing were low relatively speaking. Same with Hawkins who gave us about half a season of good relief work for his two year deal. Those are two guys whose chances of being solid contributors to the pen were very good but didn't really pan out the way they should have. That doesn't make going that route a bad idea in the future. We just got unlucky.

 

AS for the list of starters lets see how they pan out. I see a few guys with either durability or past performance issues on that list. 100ish innings is not enough to think they are good options over an entire year. I would take Cappy back in a heartbeat but that has more to do with how much I root for him than anything.

[rluzinski]

I don't see why ANYONE hasn't been given a shot to be honest. Each and every night the guys we throw out of the bullpen don't/can't/won't get the job done. It isn't like any of them have looked good, they have all stunk the joint up. No way can anyone else do any worse.

 

You really have a tendency to over-react about everything.

 

Relievers who have a reasonable track record aren't going to be thrown aside because of a bad half season. I'll leave it up to you to decide which ones have a "reasonable track record" but to suggest all the under performing relievers will continue to under perform is silly.

[Funketown]

While it turned out to be so I don't think the Riske deal was a bad move. He was durable and put up decent numbers over a relatively long period of time. The odds of him getting hurt or not performing were low relatively speaking. Same with Hawkins who gave us about half a season of good relief work for his two year deal. Those are two guys whose chances of being solid contributors to the pen were very good but didn't really pan out the way they should have. That doesn't make going that route a bad idea in the future. We just got unlucky.

 

AS for the list of starters lets see how they pan out. I see a few guys with either durability or past performance issues on that list. 100ish innings is not enough to think they are good options over an entire year. I would take Cappy back in a heartbeat but that has more to do with how much I root for him than anything.

 

I don't think the Riske signing was that bad; he had outperformed his peripherals by a pretty fair margin but still projected to be a solid guy out of the pen.

 

I'm also not saying those guys are going to continue to be durable, 3.5-4 ERA type of guys, but they seem to come at a pretty decent price right now and assuming Marcum, Greinke, and likely Wolf are gone I don't see how the Brewers are going to fill out a 5-man rotation.

[BrewersAA]

Sorry about my post/vent a few days ago about the bullpen, I just needed to let it out in a forum of brewer people (live in Oklahoma now). I actually think, individually, our bullpen guys are not bad, but as a group they are just really bad right now. So, with the deadline approaching, I think that we may see not just Krod but guys like loe and parra traded. I know a lot of contending teams would like to have a proven GB specialist or lefty that throws mid 90's with a reasonable ERA. Its just unclear who would get called up and how the trades will impact the roster in regards to incomming players.

 

Right now I am in the sell camp... I think Wolf would bring something back, Krod, loe, and parra all have value. I would love for greinke to be resigned, but its unlikely so I think he should then be traded; that deal may have a reliever included. Marcum should be traded also, sure hope he comes off the DL in time, and his deal might include a reliever.

 

I expect the pen to be better in the second half.