Perhaps a more rational discussion of the bullpen woes

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Going into the season this looked like the least of this team's concerns. Now with the team finally scoring runs and the starting pitching on a nice run, the bullpen has become the team's achilles heal. If we had the bullpen of 2011, they'd probably be knocking on the division leader's door. Let's not make this a vent thread. The questions are why are they struggling and what if anything do they do about it?

 

According to fangraphs, they have the second worst ERA in NL but some of the peripherals look more middle of the pack. I'll defer to the stat experts, but how much is bad luck versus bad performance?

 

It also seems there have been some comments about the pen not being completely healthy. BA & Rock were discussing this yesterday as was Haudricourt. Is this just an excuse after these bad performances or are these guys really dinged up? To me it seems something is off in Axford's mechanics, but Loe, Veras and KRod may all be playing hurt.

 

What do they do about it? Making a trade when they are this far back doesn't make sense. Do they bring up a Peralta or Thornburg and give them a shot at middle relief or are they better having them continue to work towards next year's rotation?

 

Let's try and keep the discussion on the rails...no Turnbow references please. Discuss...

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the single most important thing to keep in mind is that the Brewers got career years or career-caliber years from Ax, Hawkins, Saito, and maybe even Loe... and add in K-Rod having the RP version of Sabathia's 2008 Brewers campaign. That's called lightning in a bottle, and it allowed the team to overcome some other glaring weaknesses (aka the left side of the infield) en route to wiining the NL Central.

 

We just shouldn't have been expecting Ax to continue to be bulletproof, or that the complementary guys in the 'pen would pitch like All-Stars three or four deep again imo. Toss in some bad luck and regression, and you have your 2012 'bullpen'.

[fondybrewfan]

I don't think Axford is as good as 2011 but not nearly as bad as 2012. He has just been to inconsistent with the breaking ball this year. I also think he has sacrficed location this year in exchange for an extra 2-3 MPH on his fastball. I am seeing a lot of 98 MPH this year with erratic command. Last year he was normally sitting around 95-96 and had much better control. I think he is a good long term closer that will probably blow 5 games a year just like every other closer in MLB. Krod is on the downside of his career and the rest of the bullpen guys are really fringe MLB players. They did catch lightning in a bottle in 2011. Going forward I would really like them to focus on getting some power arms rather than a bunch of sinker ballers and junk ballers like Loe. Outside of Axford they don't really have anyone that can blow it by a hitter.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I agree with Fondy on Ax. His FB velocity is up to 96.2 vs. 95.5 last year according to fangraphs. He's striking more guys out, but he's also walking more and giving up HRs that he wasn't doing last year. While he may have been extraordinarily good last year, I would think his 2010 stats are acheivable. I think they need to get a hold of the pitching coach he had in the minors that corrected his mechanics last time.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9059&position=P

[stoutdude04]

I feel like we see Ax and Krod every game. Especially over the last 2-3 weeks. It seems like every game is coming down to the last at bat. Anyone have any idea how many last at bat wins or losses we have?

[Dollarbill13]

To add more on Axford, the biggest variables between this year and last year are his LOB% and HR%. His HR rate was very low last year and it's very high this year. Neither is likely sustainable. LOB% tends to fluctuate quite a bit and, unless he's actually paying less attention to runners, will likely stabilize. As mentioned, he's throwing his fastball at a higher velocity than last year and he's also getting more movement on his curveball without a real drop in velocity. The problem is that he hasn't been able to locate them. He hasn't been able to consistently throw his curveball for strikes this season and when they are strikes, they are more likely to be up in the zone. The biggest change that I'm seeing on fastballs is that he's missing middle-in to lefties much more often. Whether he can correct those latter two issues will probably be the difference to whether he can get back to where he was in the past (2.8-ish ERA)

[Funketown]

I think they'll continue to be a weak bullpen, but I do think they'll improve. Their BABIP is almost .350 right now, and while part of that is Manny Parra and his crazy ability to carry an absurd BABIP, it would be surprising to see it stay that high for the remainder of the year.

 

It almost seems amazing that they only have a 4.75 ERA, it seems like it should be at least 5.5. Guess that's just selective memory!

[FVBrewerFan]

Going into the season this looked like the least of this team's concerns. What do they do about it? ...

 

Actually, it was my biggest concern entering the season, for all the reasons TooLiveBrew pointed out. It was predictable that Ax/KRod couldn't be as dominant as they were last year. While Axford's fall-off is worse than I anticipated, KRod doesn't surprise me at all.

 

Bigger problem was replacing Saito/Hawkins with Veras/Loe. There was no way that combo was ever going to come close to what Saito/Hawkins did in the 2nd half last season. The pen was doomed from the start really.

 

What do they do now? I wouldn't be opposed to a trade, but it would need to benefit the Brewers beyond 2012. For example, if they traded Morgan or Wolf for a really good reliever witha couple pre-arby years left, it would be worth looking at.

 

They simply need to find a way to build a solid pen next year without spending a lot of money. I know, easier said than done but plenty of teams have found a way to do just that.

[rluzinski]

I feel like we see Ax and Krod every game. Especially over the last 2-3 weeks. It seems like every game is coming down to the last at bat. Anyone have any idea how many last at bat wins or losses we have?

I don't know how much of a factor it has actually been but RR constantly plays for 1 run, basically starting from the first batter on. Those 3 run saves are probably a bit harder to come by as a result.

[LouisEly]

Don't forget, Ax and his wife recently had a baby. Maybe he isn't getting as much sleep, which is impacting his performance.

[jjfanec]

Is there a statistical out there to see how many more wins we would have with a league average bullpen? I am just interested what our record could be with a decent bullpen

[torts]

Don't forget, Ax and his wife recently had a baby. Maybe he isn't getting as much sleep, which is impacting his performance.

 

I blame twitter

[TooLiveBrew]

Don't forget, Ax and his wife recently had a baby. Maybe he isn't getting as much sleep, which is impacting his performance.

Honestly, I think we tend to overlook factors like this. I've wondered quite a bit about this one w. Ax - maybe not lack of sleep necessarily, but new baby can certainly = stress.

[slappzilla]

He used to act like a serious knob on twitter. Don't know how he acts now a days because he blocked me after I tweeted back at him to "grow up" after attacking a fan for telling him to "settle down".

[MJLiverock]

I actually like him on Twitter and judging by some of the retweets he sent out of things fans were saying he should block more than few. He had some funny comebacks and in some cases just left it up to other fans to tear into idiotic comments. I end up dropping most athletes on Twitter because they only post promotional things about themselves, don't post at all, or seem to be just running a PR show. Axford is great because the posts seem to be his real thoughts, humor, and yes even frustrations.

[slappzilla]

Last year, a beat writer, I can't remember who, tweeted his blog in which he said Axford was a "lock down" closer, and compared him to guys like Mo Rivera and Jose Valverde. I tweeted at the beat writer, saying that Axford was having a great year, but he's not quite yet a "lock down" closer and he couldn't be compared to the likes of Rivera or Valverde just yet.

 

Axford, out of nowhere, came at me, talking about how I knew nothing, and started bragging about how he shut down the phillies two nights before 1-2-3 heart of their order. We went back and forth for awhile, and I never once got rude with him. Just stated facts. He ended the back and forth by telling me to "piss off" and "get a clue".

 

It wasn't till a month later when I told him to "grow up" (like I mentioned above) when he blocked me. Whatever. Lost respect for him there.

[stoutdude04]

It wasn't till a month later when I told him to "grow up" (like I mentioned above) when he blocked me. Whatever. Lost respect for him there.

 

He was mad that you snubbed him from the lock down closer list.

[RockCoCougars]

Why these active pro athletes have Twitter accounts is beyond me. Call me an old curmudgeon, but what good can come out of it? I guess that they need to stoke their egos with 'followers' or something.

[slappzilla]

He was mad that you snubbed him from the lock down closer list.

Probably.

 

What irked me about it all was I really liked Axford. I never went at him, just the beat writer, and I never said anything bad about Axford other than the fact that I didn't believe he belonged in the discussion with elite closers yet.

[Ennder]

This is how bullpens work, they are almost always completely erratic year to year even if the pitchers stay the same.

[markedman5]

So when you responded to the writer did you use Axford's twitter handle so he would see it or was he following you?

[Glennron]

Jose Veras has 28 appearances this year in which he's thrown a full inning. He's allowed at least one baserunner in 23 of those 28 innings. I guess I'm not really sure what's average, but that seems to be one way of quantifying how awful he's been.

 

Sorry, I know this doesn't really add anything to the discussion but I figured it was better than talking about Axford's twitter.

[rluzinski]

The odds of a pitcher recording an out on the first 3 batters is about 28%. Allowing a base runner in 23 out of 28 innings isn't a big deal.

[Thurston Fluff]

Sorry, I know this doesn't really add anything to the discussion but I figured it was better than talking about Axford's twitter.

 

 

I thought it was a good question. Russ I assume you gave an overall rate. Is there a way to look up the split between relievers and starters? I only ask because I think the ability to go one inning clean would be different for each group. Both in need and ability.

[rluzinski]

I thought it was a good question. Russ I assume you gave an overall rate. Is there a way to look up the split between relievers and starters? I only ask because I think the ability to go one inning clean would be different for each group. Both in need and ability.

 

I just did a back of the envelope kind of estimate. League OBP is around .330 (off the top of my head), so the odds of making 3 outs in succession is (1-.33)^3. That doesn't include things like errors and the like but it is a reasonable estimate.

 

In reality, relievers as a whole perform better than starters, so that should be taken into account. For instance, in 2011, NL:

 

Against Starters: .320/.407/.727

Against Relievers: .319/.367/.687

 

Almost no difference in OBP in 2011. That's probably a little flukish but it works out to around a 1 in 3 chance of a clean inning. There are other things you can consider, of course but it gives you a good idea.

 

Doing these kind of estimates keeps us from having unrealistic expectations. Closers for instance. How often should they be expected to blow a save? I don't know but just a rough estimate might get us us a feel of what to expect. A 3.0 ERA pitcher is going to give up a run about every 3 innings. In reality, it's less than that because of multi-run innings but it's just a quick guess. Furthermore, I guess that closers come in for a 1 run save about half the time. They will also blow some of the games when they come in with a 2 or 3 run lead but maybe that will help balance out the previous assumption's error a bit. So they'll blow a 1 run lead about 1/3rd of the time and half their save opportunities will be in 1 run games. 1/3 x 1/2 = 1/6 = 17% is my guestimate.

 

What's the reality? There were 17 NL relievers who recorded at least 10 saves last year (selective sample to be sure). They had an average ERA of 2.73. They blew 83 saves and recorded 566 saves. That's 13% of their saves that they blew. About 1 in 8 save opportunities. Even good closers are going to have their share of blown saves without luck on their side.