Mike Fiers - Your 2009, 22nd round pick

[CheezWizHed]

Its only a waste if you think this is lightning in a jar and it won't happen again.

 

I don't think that Fiers is going to remain sub 3.00 ERA (not many pitchers do). But I've held for a long time that he has a good chance to be better than only a 5th SP.

 

What this season has allowed Fiers is the chance to prove to the Brewers that he is a viable option for an SP. That is a chance he wouldn't have been afforded on last year's staff.

 

So, IMO, its not a waste at all.

[slappzilla]

What this season has allowed Fiers is the chance to prove to the Brewers that he is a viable option for an SP. That is a chance he wouldn't have been afforded on last year's staff.

Exactly what I was getting at.

 

The Brewers now have another option going into next year. No way Wolf, Marcum, and Greinke all stay on roster. I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 weren't back.

[torts]

mike fiers, 7 ip, 1 er, 9 k, 1 bb

[homer]

At this point it's beyond the "well the hitters haven't seen scouting reports on him yet". He seems legit.

[adambr2]

Our pen has looked good?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+pitching&sectionType=st&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1341447784672&league_code='NL'&split=rp

 

Yeah, we were still 15th out of 16th in the NL in bullpen ERA before yesterday. Our pen hasn't looked good at any point this season.

[adamds22]

Our starters have been getting it done lately for the most part. I don't know the stats for runs scored each inning by our opponent but my guess it is pretty swayed towards the end of the game.

[torts]

Our starters have been getting it done lately for the most part. I don't know the stats for runs scored each inning by our opponent but my guess it is pretty swayed towards the end of the game.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=MIL&year=2012#innng::none

 

the 3rd inning is by far the worst inning for the brewers, followed by the 8th and then the 6th so far in terms of ER and ERA. though i think the 8th is the worst, batters are hitting .312, 105 hits with a 1.94 SO/BB ratio.

[reillymcshane]

Our starters have been getting it done lately for the most part. I don't know the stats for runs scored each inning by our opponent but my guess it is pretty swayed towards the end of the game.

I don't know about runs at the end of the game, but here's a look at starters vs relievers.

 

Our starters are slightly above average for 2012. They ranked 14th in the major leagues with a 4.02 ERA. They have given up 220 earned runs in 490 innings pitched.

 

Our relievers ranked 29th in ERA (4.79). Obviously, this is awful. They have given up 124 earned runs in 220 innings.

 

Interesting note - our relievers have surrendered 21 unearned runs. Our starters have 11 unearned runs.

 

If our relievers were pitching as well as the starters (4.02 ERA), we'd be right in the middle of the pack in the majors - 17th.

[adamds22]

Just checked over the last month of games and it looks like this:

 

1st: 11, 2nd: 6, 3rd: 16, 4th: 10, 5th: 4, 6th: 17, 7th: 20, 8th: 20, 9th: 18 and in 7 extra innings games we've given up 5 runs in extras

[TooLiveBrew]

Greg Maddux made a pretty good career out of throwing 89mph fastballs. When you have pinpoint control, lots of movement, and a great changeup you don't need to throw 96.

 

Yo, Fiers, one of Marcum/Greinke, and then two of Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers, and Estrada (Estrada is statistically above average for a #4/#5 starter as well as cost-controlled) with the other two plus Burgos & Nelson backing up in AAA/AA for depth. They don't need to go outside the org for a FA.

Just wanted to remind people that LE has been the pres. of the Fiers fanclub for some time now. You had the good taste to not make an 'I told you so post', but I'll do it for ya.

[stalton]

Fiers is 2nd for rookies with 9.64 k/9 next to Yu Darvish...not too shabby so far

[TheCrew07]

It's hard to project Fiers for a best case result given so few players with middling stuff get there, but he does have plus command which is maybe the most import aspect of pitching.

 

I highly doubt he's a sub 3 ERA pitcher, plenty of rookies have come in and had a nice first year.

 

We aren't past the point where everyone has a book on him either, it's one thing to read an advanced scouting report, and it's another to see the guy in action. The true test here will be when he starts seeing teams the 2nd and 3rd time, then we'll know.

 

This guy is a good lesson in that kind phenomenon. I'm not comparing them as pitchers, they don't even throw with the same hand, I'm just saying lets not get carried away until repeats success against the same teams. Which is very similar to my take on pitchers at the start of a minor league season, lets see what happens the second time they face the same team.

 

I'm very excited for him and I love that a prospect came up and pitched well enough to stay, though I have a bad feeling he'll be the guy sent down or sent to the pen when Marcum comes back. However that could just my perceived Milwaukee anti-prospect cloud hanging over the discussion.

[Baldkin]

Beyond the Box score had a great writeup on Fiers, and how he does an amazing job of keeping hitters off balance (and why he gets so many fly balls).

 

Question for the everyone: When is he "For real" in your opinion?

 

I am hopeful he keeps this up, I really think he could be a solid #3 or an average #2 going forward... but I still think the league will adjust.

[slappzilla]

We're all hopeful that what we're seeing out of the 22nd round from 2009 is for real, but in all honesty, I think he needs to do it at least the rest of the way this season. The sample size so far, to me, is still way too small.

 

Again, I truly hope he keeps it up, but my expectations of him are not what he's done so far, and I'm afraid there is a market correction coming.

[Outlander]

One of the interesting parts of that Beyond the Box Score is that so many of his curve balls are being called balls when they are actually strikes.

[rluzinski]

Question for the everyone: When is he "For real" in your opinion? I am hopeful he keeps this up, I really think he could be a solid #3 or an average #2 going forward...

 

I was surprised to see that Fiers had a pretty reasonable projections before the season even started and they obviously have only improved since then:

 

ZiPS preseason: 4.01 ERA

ZiPS updated: 3.68 ERA

 

Lot's of uncertainty in those estimates of course (mostly based off minor league data) but he already projected to be a #3 before he threw is first pitch this year. None of that takes into account any scouting information, though. A projection that took into account his 89 MPH fastball might not be so optimistic. Is it really that unprecedented for a guy with a high 80's fastball to have a mid-3 ERA projection, though? The Brewers already have a guy like that (Marcum)

 

Or is the question really whether Fiers is a true sub 3 ERA pitcher? If that's the question, I don't really care how hard he throws since the answer is almost certainly no.

 

...but I still think the league will adjust.

 

Is there any statistical evidence that pitchers new to the majors perform better than expected over their first whatever number of appearances? I appreciate the theory that batters need time to adjust to a particular pitcher but I am skeptical that it results in any meaningful difference in actual performance.

 

My gut says it's mostly just just random variance. Most new pitchers will randomly perform better or worse then their talent level when they first start off. People assume, that the ones that start off poorly are "obviously" just having a hard time adjusting to major league hitters. Conversely, it's assumed that the ones that do better then expected will "obviously" level off as batters adjust to them. I think the majority of it is just statistical noise. I am not aware of any study that's ever looked into the matter, however, so I don't pretend that my theory is any more valid than anyone else's.

[slappzilla]

Is there any statistical evidence that pitchers new to the majors perform better than expected over their first whatever number of appearances?

Yes, there is.

 

No book on them - hitters aren't sure what to expect. Happens all the time.

[gobrew23]

Is there any statistical evidence that pitchers new to the majors perform better than expected over their first whatever number of appearances?

Yes, there is.

No book on them - hitters aren't sure what to expect. Happens all the time.

 

You can't just say, "Yes, there is." and then not show the statistics. Do you have a link to some sort of data?

[Nottso]

Your Milwaukee Suppans

 

Putting up hangdog performances since 2007

 

Yes!

[rluzinski]

Is there any statistical evidence that pitchers new to the majors perform better than expected over their first whatever number of appearances?

Yes, there is.

 

No book on them - hitters aren't sure what to expect. Happens all the time.

 

As I just mentioned, it also "happens all the time" that new pitchers pitch worse than expected to start their major league career. I am not looking for anecdotal evidence, as you can use that as evidence to support any theory. I am just curious if there has ever been a comprehensive study performed regarding average performance for new starting pitchers.

[gregmag]

That Beyond the Box Score article is an outstanding read; thanks, Baldkin. The writer really looks carefully at Fiers and doesn't overclaim. But he makes a good case that what we're seeing from Fiers portends at least a solid midrotation talent, and I'm inclined to buy that right now. Yes, his MLB sample size is small; but it's very consistent with what he did in the minors over several seasons, and he was able to sustain his results as he moved up levels. Put it this way: if part of the equation in a Greinke and/or Marcum trade scenario is whether we should bet on Fiers to be a productive member of the 2013 rotation, I think we should.

[CheezWizHed]

Question for the everyone: When is he "For real" in your opinion?

 

IMO:

Right now, he qualifies as a legit MLB starter.

Rest of this year with a sub 4 ERA to say he is a legit #3 SP.

At least a full year of sub 3 ERA to say he is a legit #1.

[rluzinski]

It would be awesome is Fiers could effectively take Marcum's spot in the rotation next year, although there is a good chance that he would be the second best pitcher in the rotation if he does.

[homer]

His K rates in the minors were outstanding. In fact, his worst K/9 was this season before the call up.

[DHonks]

The curve analysis reminds me of Ben Hendrickson. His debut he "struck" 2 guys out looking, only to have umps call balls and then give up hits on the next pitches.