Mr. Hart

[Outlander]

I'm a big fan of Hart but what do the Giants have that the Brewers might want. I could see him potentially falling to the Giants but it's still likely somebody before them would claim him.

[reillymcshane]

I'm a big fan of Hart but what do the Giants have that the Brewers might want. I could see him potentially falling to the Giants but it's still likely somebody before them would claim him.

Here's some suggestions for a Hart trade:

 

1B Brandon Belt - Belt is a career .343 minor league hitter. That hasn't translated to the big leagues (yet). He's now got over 500 ABs in SF, and has a .748 OPS. Nothing great for 1B. But he's been modestly successful this year - upping his BA to .267 and OBP to .362. However, the power hasn't been there. Will it develop? Interestingly, while he's a lefty, he's hit southpaws better than righties. I believe he is supposed to be a good fielder - but that's just going by memory. Belt is a guy the team would have to look at, and determine if he's a good player who just needs consistent PT to be good.

 

CF Gary Brown - not having a great year at AA, but was a monster last year at A+, hitting .336 with an OPS over .900. He reportedly plays a very good centerfield - and is very fast - Keith Law rated him an '8' on the speed scale (the best you can get). He's hitting .280 this year with a .346 OBP. Not great, but decent for a CF. He'll be 24 next month. He was ranked as the #38 prospect by BA coming into 2012. John Sickels has him at 43 coming into 2012, but dropped him to 68 at his mid-season review. Most of the reviews I've seen of him say he's a mature guy - and could easily be ready in 2013 if needed.

 

Kyle Crick - Pitcher in A ball. Only 19. Supplemental pick a couple of years ago. Throws smoke - 112 K in 100 innings this year (but he also has 62 BB). Only given up 59 hits. He has a 2.34 ERA. Would be a nice guy down the road. Sickels has him as his 99th prospect in his mid-season review. Obviously young and it's only A ball - but I like getting big arms.

 

These are just some interesting pieces. I'm not saying this is a trade SF would make.

 

EDIT: Changed an OPS to an OBP

[monty57]

He's hitting .280 this year with a .346 OPS. Not great, but decent for a CF.

 

I assume you mean OBP :-)

[paul253]

If I am trading Corey Hart I am looking for a team's 3rd-5th ranked prospect, depending on who the team is. I don't like Belt because we already have a guy who can play first and has good minor league numbers (Gamel). I want a Segura type prospect, preferably either a pitcher or third basemen. If we trade Hart in the offseason the trading team would be able to receive compensation should he leave. That should increase his value a bit. But as much I've been on board with trading Hart it is only if we receive a fairly regarded prospect or two in return.

[reillymcshane]

He's hitting .280 this year with a .346 OPS. Not great, but decent for a CF.

 

I assume you mean OBP :-)

Doah! However, I think .346 was Izturis' OPS.

[HiAndTight]

This is going to be long, please bear with me.

 

This whole fire sale idea doesn't make much sense to me. Most of the names thrown around (including Marcum due to injury) have little to no value right now. It's not like the farm is going to be replenished by moving these guys.

This isn't fire sale, I'm not sure why you keep spinning it as such. The idea here is to try to get back better value than you would get out of draft picks. It's sound business considering the Brewer's future needs, they don't have the money to resign all these guys even if they wanted to so the question becomes to how to get the most value possible out of each guy. Why would the Brewers even offer someone like K-Rod a qualifying arbitration contract to hopefully get draft picks when no one is going to pay him that much money and he'd just accept again? Instead why not flip him and see if you can some kind of return on your investment? How did riding out Sheets into FA work out? What kind of draft picks did we get for Sabathia?

 

Hart is being tossed around because he's the most valuable trading chip the Brewers have outside of Braun and Gallardo considering he's not a rental. If you don't have enough pitching to compete why does it matter if you have Hart in RF or 1B for 1 more season?

 

Ramirez is being tossed around by Monty because that last year + buyout carries significant risk of being an albatross. We aren't talking about Ramirez in 2012, we're talking about him in 2014 when he's 36 years old with a $16 million contract and a $4 million buyout.

 

As for Greinke, if they lose him, put me on record as saying that the near future will be anything but bright. I'd rather play out most of July, just in case.

Just in case what exactly? The entire central division collapses and the Brewers make the playoffs? To what end? Currently Milwaukee would have to jump 3 teams to win the division and 6 teams to get a Wild Card. Is that a realistic target?

 

Once again I'm personally not content just getting to the playoffs, the only thing I care about is being able to compete for a World Series. Yes you can't reach the World Series without getting into the playoffs, but there's also the question of being able to adequately compete in the playoffs. We don't have starting pitching that regularly will get you deep into a game nor do we have a bullpen that will lock down the game. Of the teams below .500 we do have the best run differential at -11 but as team we have the 13th best ERA in the NL even though we've scored the 6th most runs in the NL. To put this a different way, the Brewers have allowed the 5th most runs in the NL at 355, the next closest tean we're chasing in the division is STL at 328, CIN and PIT are the 2nd and 4th best teams in the NL at 298 and 291 respectively.

 

I've always felt the post season was about impact pitching and defense, because just about every team that gets there is going to be able to score runs. I think we have a pretty decent defensive club outside of 3B, but our pitching doesn't stack up with any of the top teams in the NL or AL. If Yo and Greinke don't pitch a complete game then what happens? What are the odds that everyone in the pen gets hot at the same time at the end of the season?

 

Furthermore, once we decide that we only have 1 solution to the problem, we eliminate every other alternative and back ourselves into a corner, which is what Melvin seems to do, we always seem to end up with limited options. Losing Greinke doesn't have to be the death blow to 2013 and 2014 that is being predicted, there are many different ways the Brewers could acquire enough impact pitching and/or talent to remain competitive. Making Greinke the focal point is a self fulfilling prophecy because then you don't try to do anything else and if you can't resign him then you're left with nothing but middling FAs because you haven't made any other moves. We have more options than that but I found the following quote from Shortstop key for Brewers if Greinke’s dealt pretty infuriating:

The Brewers probably will take one more run at Greinke, who is eligible for free agency after the season, before the July 31 trade deadline. But if the sides remain far apart and the team does not get its act together, general manager Doug Melvin will begin entertaining offers for Greinke, who has been scouted heavily by clubs in need of pitching. To this point, suitors have been told "not yet."

Not yet!?!?! Queue the, "that's just GM speak" responses... I know. However, what has Melvin said on the air during the telecasts or in print that leads anyone to believe he's capable of being a good seller at the deadline? His one deadline deal as a seller in the past wasn't exactly awe inspiring (Carlos Lee). Last time I saw him in the booth he was talking about just needing a hot streak of "8 or 9 out of 10 games" to get back in the race, TH obviously took the "not yet" directly from someone in the front office for his story. The problem here is timing, every deal that gets made reduces Melvin's options and every day that passes makes the players with expiring contracts less valuable.

 

 

 

First of all, what type of prospects did we get back for Sabathia? Well, we WOULD have gotten Trout back for Sabathia most likely if not for a very rare situation in which the Yankees signed the #1 and #2 type A FA's that year, especially when they weren't even in the Texiera running until Boston...or so it seemed. . Though I fail to see any similarity. You don't trade for a guy in a playoff race to get back prospects.

 

We also drafted Odorizzi the following year. I don't recall if he was the CC pick or not. But that seems totally besides the point as does the Sabathia reference.

 

What did we get back for Sheets? AGAIN, you're-in-a-playoff-race. Why would the thought of trading Sheets even cross your mind at the time we'd have traded him(July/August during our first playoff appearance in over 25 years while Sheets was pitching lights out?

 

He ALSO was a fluke scenario as he was very close to signing a contract with the Rangers, in fact, HAD a contract worked out only to have it not go through because of the physical. So I see absolutely no correlation between those scenario's and trading Corey Hart OTHER than to try and once again yell fire regarding Doug Melvin when there isn't even the whiff of smoke.

 

Second, does the trade for an elite Shortstop, Hellweg and Pena do enough for you to stop declaring that Doug Melvin is terrible when it comes to in-season trades, something that's been pretty clearly proven to be false? Just curious.

 

 

Are you still "infuriated," because he wasn't ready when you wanted him to be? Do you think we could have gotten more for him in the new era of FA compensation? Or are we just simply on to the next thing that Melvin did or didn't do?

 

 

And yes, trading a majority of your best players IS in fact what people are referring to when they say "fire-sale." You want to trade Hart, Ramirez, Greinke(who was rightfully traded) and you DON'T think that's a fire sale? You've also mentioned trading Weeks if a team would have him. So that's 3/4ths of your IF you've advocated trading, K-Rod and, as you've put it, anyone else of value(excluding a small number of players). Pretty much fits the term "fire sale," to a T.

[monty57]

To me, a fire sale is trading anyone for anything, not caring about the return. This is usually done either to get out of a budget pinch or because you're losing them all as free agents at the end of the year. That differs from saying "I'd trade Hart while he has a year of team control left and should net a good return while we have other options for RF (Aoki) and 1B (Gamel)."

 

There have been some saying that we should dump Ramirez for nothing just to get out of the contract, which I don't think is a good move. If we could've traded him to the Dodgers for some good prospects, I'd have been fine with it, but certainly not for nothing.

 

I believe the only person who has said we should trade everyone except Braun is you when you said that if we didn't extend Greinke we should do a full scale rebuild, gutting the entire MLB roster. Since we didn't extend Greinke, your jumping on TC07 sounds a little like "the pot calling the kettle black." Plus, you quoted a post from sometime in early July... are you just trying to do an "in your face" retort because Melvin did actually (for the first time in his tenure) bring back prospects in a trade instead of insisting on "proven MLB talent?"

 

I'm glad Melvin made the trade he did for Greinke. I'm glad he made the trade he did for Kottaras. I hope this is leading to a new methodology going forward. If he continues to pick up top prospects and insert them for league-minimum into the lineup, I'm sure a lot of the people who have complained about how he's run the team will be elated.

[markedman5]

Like I said before...Corey wants to stay. Should be an interesting off season. He could be traded or they could extend him. Business is buisness but as I have said I have a soft spot for guys like Corey. Will do whatever is asked of him to help the team and loves Milwaukee.

 

Tough decisions await DM and MA.

 

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/2012/08/21/hart-hopes-to-spur-extension-talks/

[trwi7]

I'd ask him if he'd be willing to come back if he's traded.

[reillymcshane]

I think a 3 year deal at a reasonable rate would be beneficial. I guess it all comes down to what is 'reasonable' to the team and to Corey. I'm thinking in the line of what guys like Cuddyer ($11.5 million), Willingham ($9 million) and LaRoche ($8 million) got the last few years. I'm not counting the insane Ethier deal. That was just idiocy. If Corey is thinking $14-15 million a year - I'd let him play out his contract and let him go.

 

I'd keep him at 1B. He should get better in the field with more and more time. I like that he wants to be here. That's a bonus.

 

As a 1B he's certainly not great, but very solid. He's not hitting quite as good as last year (lower walk rate, higher K rate), which concerns me. But I have to give him kudos for the in-season move to 1B. He's done it pretty flawlessly. He's had some injuries in the past, but maybe the move to 1B would help him stay healthy.

 

A three year deal would cover is age 32-34 seasons. He has a good chance to retain his value over those years. If he can produce 25-30 HR, hit .270-280 - that's a solid player.

 

Perhaps the team feels that they can replace Corey with a cheaper player down the road. Hunter Morris would be one candidate, but I don't think anyone feels he's a sure thing. He's had a great season at AA. I heard he's shortened his swing up a bit - a major concern earlier in his career. We drafted some other young players as well - but they are a ways away.

 

I'd say 3 years, $10-12 million a year. If he takes it, we are set at 1B (or RF) for the next four years.

[Invader3K]

I'm kind of torn on this. I'm glad to hear Corey Hart wants to stay, and I think he would probably sign a team friendly deal. There's no way the Brewers would give him an Ethier type contract, and I don't think Hart would be holding out for that either. That said, I'm not sure of the wisdom for a team like Milwaukee to extend him when he's almost done with his prime years as a player. I really do like Corey Hart and feel like he's been underrated for some time, but I'm not sure if it's wise for the Brewers to make this move. They still have Mat Gamel as a possible option (though I think that's remote), and Hunter Morris might only be a year away from being ready to take over at first base.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree with everyone that it's a tough call. Morris has certainly elevated his prospect status. Hart is a beloved guy who's been productive and shown to be a very good first baseman. They did try Morris for 6 games at 3B in 2011. I'm not suggesting they try him at 3rd again, but that does mean he might have a decent enough arm to try in RF. I suppose they could always move Hart back there too.

 

I guess it all depends on whether they'll use a good chunk of cash elsewhere. If they can fill the needs in the rotation and the bullpen relatively cheaply, it might be the deciding factor.

[paul253]

If the Brewers didn't have so many legit corner outfield/first base guys I'd be all for signing Hart. I just think he'll get more money than people think ($13-$15 million a year for at least 3 years). With Braun manning one of the corner outfield spots and presumably Gomez and Schafer in centerfield, that leaves a whole bunch of guys for RF/1B. Hart. You have Gamel. You have Khris Davis (may involve moving Braun to RF). You have Morris. You have Caleb Gindl. If Victor Roache is healthy he may advance quickly.

 

I just hate to invest so much money in a guy when you have so many other options and could really use that money to shore up other areas, mainly infield depth and the bullpen.

[pogokat]

i think the Hart to willingham/Cuddyer comp was apt...3 years 30 million...isn't that the deal he's on now? yeah, something like that...he won't get more on the open market...unless someone loses their minds like the nats did with weth

[slappzilla]

I like Hart. He lives in the same neighborhood as my parents. I've met his wife and kids many times along with him. I love him in the 5 spot in the lineup. I love his power bat in the lineup.

 

That being said, it's kind of tough to give him the long term deal with Gamel and Morris in the system. The OF spots seem to be covered as well if you want to go that route.

 

As a small/mid-market team, you have to do what's right for the team. Signing Hart to a 5 year $65-$75M deal is not what's best for the team considering the team seemingly has the positions he plays covered for the future for min wage. I'm not saying Gamel or Morris are a lock to hit for the same stats as Hart, but I'd bet either can come close enough to where resigning Hart just is not worth it.

 

It just makes too much sense to trade him in the offseason or before the deadline next season due to what the Brewers have in their system.

[markedman5]

Corey said he would even go for a 2 year extension. Told Greinke he should have stayed in Milwaukee because he was happy here. Doesn't sound like he is looking to break the bank.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/coreys-heart-in-brew-city-op6jul6-167445795.html

[slappzilla]

Hey, if he signs on the cheap that's awesome.

 

Usually the $$$ wins though. I don't have to go through the lists of other guys who said they wanted to stay in Milwaukee.

[Austin Tatious]

I'd re-sign Hart. Team guy. Character guy. Productive. Home grown. Proven. Guys like that don't grow on trees. i say we reward him with an extension soon.

[Raw Biz]

I'd re-sign Hart. Team guy. Character guy. Productive. Home grown. Proven. Guys like that don't grow on trees. i say we reward him with an extension soon.

 

If rewarding him is paying him more than he's worth or even market-value, I'd pass. However, if he would take a discount, I might consider it. I just don't think it's smart to spend a lot on players past 30, especially when they could be blocking younger, cheaper players.

[nate82]

I'd re-sign Hart. Team guy. Character guy. Productive. Home grown. Proven. Guys like that don't grow on trees. i say we reward him with an extension soon.

 

If rewarding him is paying him more than he's worth or even market-value, I'd pass. However, if he would take a discount, I might consider it. I just don't think it's smart to spend a lot on players past 30, especially when they could be blocking younger, cheaper players.

 

If it is only for 2-years fine as that would be when Morris would be ready. I am not sure what the Brewers have in Gamel. At the very least Gamel will be a really good bench bat. Is having Hart over Gamel a good or a bad thing? I am not sure what the answer to that question is. I would rather have Gamel at 1B but Hart is rather good also if Hart will cost $10m or less I would go with him but I would rather have the cost savings of Gamel and adding help to the bullpen.

[HiAndTight]

To me, a fire sale is trading anyone for anything, not caring about the return. This is usually done either to get out of a budget pinch or because you're losing them all as free agents at the end of the year. That differs from saying "I'd trade Hart while he has a year of team control left and should net a good return while we have other options for RF (Aoki) and 1B (Gamel)."

 

There have been some saying that we should dump Ramirez for nothing just to get out of the contract, which I don't think is a good move. If we could've traded him to the Dodgers for some good prospects, I'd have been fine with it, but certainly not for nothing.

 

I believe the only person who has said we should trade everyone except Braun is you when you said that if we didn't extend Greinke we should do a full scale rebuild, gutting the entire MLB roster. Since we didn't extend Greinke, your jumping on TC07 sounds a little like "the pot calling the kettle black." Plus, you quoted a post from sometime in early July... are you just trying to do an "in your face" retort because Melvin did actually (for the first time in his tenure) bring back prospects in a trade instead of insisting on "proven MLB talent?"

 

I'm glad Melvin made the trade he did for Greinke. I'm glad he made the trade he did for Kottaras. I hope this is leading to a new methodology going forward. If he continues to pick up top prospects and insert them for league-minimum into the lineup, I'm sure a lot of the people who have complained about how he's run the team will be elated.

 

 

Perhaps the two of us disagree and I may have a different opinion of firesale.

 

My opinion of a fire sale is when your in a position where your team has valuable players, but isn't winning and you want to start a rebuilding project and you deal away your tradable assets.

 

I think both in reality are applicable. But if you traded Aram, Weeks, Hart, K-Rod,Marcum and Greinke, and "anyone else of value," that's a firesale, despite the fact it isn't due to financial reasons.

 

And these players where all players that TC07 was advocating trading if we could get players in return.

[HiAndTight]

Hey, if he signs on the cheap that's awesome.

 

Usually the $$$ wins though. I don't have to go through the lists of other guys who said they wanted to stay in Milwaukee.

 

No, but if you want to dismiss this, you DO need to go through a list of players who have gone so far out of their way to make it public that they'd take a under market contract for a shorter period of time(two years? If he has another good year next year, 30 HR's, .270/.340-ish, he'd get 4-5 years at 60 or so million) and THEN talks about how getting every last dollar isn't important.

 

 

You take one line about how he wants to stay in Milwaukee and then you say, "pftt, others have said the same as well," totally ignoring the rest of the...really over the top stuff he says about staying here. If anyone's EVERY sounded sincere about staying here, it's Hart. He's come out and said it only has to be two years and he's not looking for every last dollar, AND that he wants to be one of the rare guys to stay in Milwaukee.

 

It's almost like this incessant need to take everything and try and make it as negative as possible. You are still on record as saying we'll cut payroll nearly 30 million next year, right? Even with another 30 million coming into our revenue stream(at the very least)?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think both in reality are applicable. But if you traded Aram, Weeks, Hart, K-Rod,Marcum and Greinke, and "anyone else of value," that's a firesale, despite the fact it isn't due to financial reasons.

 

And these players where all players that TC07 was advocating trading if we could get players in return.

What does TC07 have to do with a post by monty?

[slappzilla]

Hey, if he signs on the cheap that's awesome.

 

Usually the $$$ wins though. I don't have to go through the lists of other guys who said they wanted to stay in Milwaukee.

 

No, but if you want to dismiss this, you DO need to go through a list of players who have gone so far out of their way to make it public that they'd take a under market contract for a shorter period of time(two years? If he has another good year next year, 30 HR's, .270/.340-ish, he'd get 4-5 years at 60 or so million) and THEN talks about how getting every last dollar isn't important.

 

 

You take one line about how he wants to stay in Milwaukee and then you say, "pftt, others have said the same as well," totally ignoring the rest of the...really over the top stuff he says about staying here. If anyone's EVERY sounded sincere about staying here, it's Hart. He's come out and said it only has to be two years and he's not looking for every last dollar, AND that he wants to be one of the rare guys to stay in Milwaukee.

 

It's almost like this incessant need to take everything and try and make it as negative as possible. You are still on record as saying we'll cut payroll nearly 30 million next year, right? Even with another 30 million coming into our revenue stream(at the very least)?

CC, Prince, and Greinke all said it, but they didn't sound as sincere as Hart (according to you) so they don't count. Ok.

 

You can buy into the "really over the top stuff he says about staying here" all you want. I'm just going to stick with the trend and base my opinion off that.

 

If Hart actually signs for a discount, then the sincerity is indeed legit, and it will be great for the Brewers. The track record of guys saying they want to stay put, and hinting at taking a home town discount in order to stay put - who actually do so, is few and far between. Tough to treat Hart any different.

 

If rewarding him is paying him more than he's worth or even market-value, I'd pass. However, if he would take a discount, I might consider it. I just don't think it's smart to spend a lot on players past 30, especially when they could be blocking younger, cheaper players.

I agree with this. If he actually does sign for a discount, I'm all about keeping Hart aboard, but even at market value (because of how jacked up the market is) I think the Brewers should pass on him (or more/less deal him) because of what they have in waiting.

[monty57]

To me, a fire sale is trading anyone for anything, not caring about the return. This is usually done either to get out of a budget pinch or because you're losing them all as free agents at the end of the year. That differs from saying "I'd trade Hart while he has a year of team control left and should net a good return while we have other options for RF (Aoki) and 1B (Gamel)."

 

There have been some saying that we should dump Ramirez for nothing just to get out of the contract, which I don't think is a good move. If we could've traded him to the Dodgers for some good prospects, I'd have been fine with it, but certainly not for nothing.

 

I believe the only person who has said we should trade everyone except Braun is you when you said that if we didn't extend Greinke we should do a full scale rebuild, gutting the entire MLB roster. Since we didn't extend Greinke, your jumping on TC07 sounds a little like "the pot calling the kettle black." Plus, you quoted a post from sometime in early July... are you just trying to do an "in your face" retort because Melvin did actually (for the first time in his tenure) bring back prospects in a trade instead of insisting on "proven MLB talent?"

 

I'm glad Melvin made the trade he did for Greinke. I'm glad he made the trade he did for Kottaras. I hope this is leading to a new methodology going forward. If he continues to pick up top prospects and insert them for league-minimum into the lineup, I'm sure a lot of the people who have complained about how he's run the team will be elated.

 

 

Perhaps the two of us disagree and I may have a different opinion of firesale.

 

My opinion of a fire sale is when your in a position where your team has valuable players, but isn't winning and you want to start a rebuilding project and you deal away your tradable assets.

 

I think both in reality are applicable. But if you traded Aram, Weeks, Hart, K-Rod,Marcum and Greinke, and "anyone else of value," that's a firesale, despite the fact it isn't due to financial reasons.

 

And these players where all players that TC07 was advocating trading if we could get players in return.

 

 

Terms like "fire sale," and "rebuild" have a derogartory connotation, but they are often used whenever someone says we should make any trades. I look at something like Boston just did as a "fire sale." It's semantics, but I think the feeling people get when they hear the term "fire sale" is a negative one, so saying that another poster (or group of posters) is calling for a fire sale is not doing justice to what that group is advocating, unless they are truly calling for the Brewers to make a trade like the Red Sox just made with the Dodgers.

 

Most posters are not proposing making tons of moves, although looking at any move in a vaccuum may make sense. In other words, I would trade pretty much any player in the right deal. It doesn't mean I'd want every player traded. If a team with a better system than our wanted to trade their whole system for ours, of course I'd do it, but that isn't going to happen. We need to make sure to look at posts as they're intended. If someone in a Weeks trade says they'd be willing to trade Weeks, and in separate Hart & Ramirez threads says they'd be willing to trade Hart/Rmairez, it doesn't mean they're advocating trading all of Hart, Weeks and Ramirez. It just means that in the right deal, they'd trade any one of them. Also, guys who are going to be free agents at the end of a season (at they time of the post you quoted: Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod, etc) should be traded if we're out of it, since they'll be gone anyways. Not a fire sale to trade away someone who is going to walk away, it's just getting something of value where you would otherwise get nothing of value.

 

I recall you being a strong advocate of re-signing Greinke, but stating that if we could not re-sign Greinke, we should trade everyone. To the best of my memory, you are the only one I can recall stating that we should do a complete rebuild, and that was contingent on our not retaining Greinke. I guess I don't get advocating a complete teardown of the MLB roster and then getting on someone else who thinks we should make some trades. Since we didn't extend Greinke, I would think you'd applaud someone who is calling for guys like Hart and Ramirez to be traded.