Mr. Hart

[RockCoCougars]

I put very little stock in Baseball America, it'd be easy for anybody with a set of minor league statistics and a list of draft status to put a list together. Honestly, I think that they know little more than a lot of fans, and I think that they put these lists together solely based on minor league stats and/or draft position. I'd be willing to bet that the bust rate of their Top 100 lists 10 and more years out is quite high.

 

I, just, wow.

 

Why? Look at the results based on their past lists. Go ten years and out and look.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

 

The 75-100 players are generally about 80% misses, with many laughable. They aren't much better on their 20-74 rankings. Heck, a lot of years their Top 10 rankings are a joke in hindsight. My point is that their ratings should be taken with a grain of salt not as the gospel as a lot of people here seem to do. I'm not saying that their ratings are completely worthless, but they shouldn't be given the reverence that many give them. Again, this is not a video game, guys' 'rankings' don't translate automatically to their skill in the game.

 

As for trading quality for quantity, almost exactly 16 years ago, Sal Bando traded Greg Vaughn for a package including two guys from BA 'Top 100'. I'd bet that a lot of people here would have been all over that, especially when Marc Newfield started off as hot as he did.

 

Bottom line, prospects are far for a sure thing. It is a major risk to start dumping all of your established talent for them, especially when you have a fallow farm system. Your odds of 'retooling' certainly are very low, you are more likely to end up in a Sal Bando/Dean Taylor cycle. If you start dumping guys for young talent, may as well do it full bore and admit that you are rebuilding. Do you think that Attanasio and especially Melvin are going to be on board for that at this point?

[logan82]

My attitude toward breaking up a team that went to the NLCS less than a year ago solely to stockpile 'Top 100' prospects certainly has been dismissive.

Let me just stop you right there. This team is already partially broken up and certainly will be by the end of the year. A couple good trades would give us a much better chance of a short turn around ater a down year next year.

[monty57]

You do realize that being a top 75 prospect in all of MiLB is a really big honor, right? I can only speak for myself, but your dismissive attitude toward not just prospect rankings, but indirectly those who read and discuss them, has been pretty off-putting lately.

 

In this kind of discussion, "gives great value" & "*has given* great value..." are two very different things.

 

Just saw this. My attitude toward breaking up a team that went to the NLCS less than a year ago solely to stockpile 'Top 100' prospects certainly has been dismissive. I believe that a bird in the hand is greater than two in the bush. I've been following the Brewers for a long time, and if I know one thing it's that prospects are far from a guarantee. I put very little stock in Baseball America, it'd be easy for anybody with a set of minor league statistics and a list of draft status to put a list together. Honestly, I think that they know little more than a lot of fans, and I think that they put these lists together solely based on minor league stats and/or draft position. I'd be willing to bet that the bust rate of their Top 100 lists 10 and more years out is quite high. BTW, Antoine Williamson and countless other Brewer busts over the years have been 'Top 75'. Saying that being 'Top 75' is not much more of an honor than saying that so and so was a 'former first round pick'.

 

Frankly, the attitude of some fans here who I see as treating the team like a video game has been a bit off-putting to me. I've asked several times here, 'if you trade Hart and/or Ramirez, Weeks, Gallardo, etc., where will you spend the money". I haven't gotten one good answer yet. It seems that these folks want to relive the '92-02 era where you trade any talent that 'gets expensive' for the best offer of minor leaguers/MLB players not good enough to play a role on a contending team, then sign overpaid mediocrity on the free agent market to fill holes. I hear about the Tampa model, but they have been a team that has drafted (admittedly pretty well as of late) high for several years, and they are under significant cost constraints due to ownership and the fact that they have to play in a dump. There are also a lot of Beane disciples here as well.

 

Bottom line, I honestly think that a lot of people have been spoiled by the high success rate that the Brewers have had on prospects over the past decade... Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, Hart, Weeks, Hardy, etc. with very few busts/injury derailments mixed in. I'd argue that this is the exception and not the rule, and I think that causes people here to overvalue prospects in general. I get that it's fun to talk about trade rumors and such is the nature of the web. That said, I've been through enough rebuilding projects as a fan of this team to start another one so soon.

 

I've laid out my budgetary concerns mulitple times and no one has given me an answer. We were budgeted for an upper-80's payroll this year and ended up around $100MM. There's a good chance the Brewers lose money this year. We will probably see a significant decrease in attendance next season, so I could see us budgeting for a $80MM or so payroll for 2013. With our current obligations, we need salary relief to field a MLB-caliber team and stay within budget. I've asked multiple times for someone to lay out a realistic plan to field a good team next year while staying in budget, and I haven't gotten a good answer. The "sign Greinke at any cost" crowd doesn't seem to care too much about budgetary concerns.

 

To topic, if we trade Hart prior to next year, the receiving team will be able to get compensatory draft picks for him, so they will be willing to offer a lot more in trade. Why do you worry about where we're going to spend the money saved? I would be happy that we could turn a year of Hart (when we're probably not going to compete for the playoffs) into multiple pre-arby players to fill several holes. As an added benefit, we could have some financial flexibility in case we needed it - just because we have money in a budget doesn't mean we need to spend it, but if we need a mid-season upgrade, or if a team in financial distress is willing to give us a good player for salary relief, then we will be able to take advantage of the situation.

[paul253]

With the return for Greinke it doesn't look like any of the guys are going to help us out much next season. Don't get me wrong, I love getting Segura back but counting on him to not only be the everyday SS next season but to put up good numbers right away may be wishful thinking.

 

So my question is, since next year may be a bit of a down year anyway wouldn't it make sense to trade Hart now? His value is much higher than it will be at this time next season and he should be able to bring back at least one high ceiling prospect, probably two. Cleveland has already reportedly inquired about him. I have to imagine Pittsburgh would be interested. Texas is said to be looking for an outfielder. I floated the idea in another thread about maybe Hart to Pitt for Marte and Heredia. Wouldn't that trade make even more sense now?

 

Short of actually bringing Greinke back as a FA I just don't see this team competing next season. So why not take another step towards improving the future of the team now as opposed to hanging to guys who may not even be here in 2014? Trading Hart just makes too much sense to me.

[jjfanec]

With the return for Greinke it doesn't look like any of the guys are going to help us out much next season. Don't get me wrong, I love getting Segura back but counting on him to not only be the everyday SS next season but to put up good numbers right away may be wishful thinking.

 

So my question is, since next year may be a bit of a down year anyway wouldn't it make sense to trade Hart now? His value is much higher than it will be at this time next season and he should be able to bring back at least one high ceiling prospect, probably two. Cleveland has already reportedly inquired about him. I have to imagine Pittsburgh would be interested. Texas is said to be looking for an outfielder. I floated the idea in another thread about maybe Hart to Pitt for Marte and Heredia. Wouldn't that trade make even more sense now?

 

Short of actually bringing Greinke back as a FA I just don't see this team competing next season. So why not take another step towards improving the future of the team now as opposed to hanging to guys who may not even be here in 2014? Trading Hart just makes too much sense to me.

 

If you are going to make a run at Greinke in the off-season you keep Hart until you see where Greinke goes. You can always trade Hart in the off-season

[monty57]

I can't imagine Melvin is going to make roster moves based on what he thinks Greinke would feel about it.

 

Trading Hart makes a lot of sense. First, as was just mentioned, the Brewers probably aren't odds-on favorites to contend next year, so Hart's good bat would be "wasted" in a down year before he bolts for free agency. Second, we have Aoki playing for 10% of Hart's salary in RF, and Gamel playing for 5% of Hart's salary at 1B. I like Hart, but we have in-house replacements for him. Finally, Hart should get a lot back in trade as he's good, he's signed to a reasonable deal for next year, and the receiving team would be able to get a comp pick for him.

 

If we could trade Hart for some good players who we would "control" for six years at a low price, I think we should do it. As I've said before, I'm hoping for "young and exciting" in 2013 and "playoff contender" in 2014. Hart only fits in those plans as a trade chip. But in that role, he could be very important.

[Mr Southpaw]

The Braves have always liked Corey and he fits a need right now for them. They just don't make stupid trades, so I am not sure if we would get back a whole lot. Maybe Joe Terdoslavich (gotta like the the name, good or bad) and a pitcher?

[paul253]

I can't imagine Melvin is going to make roster moves based on what he thinks Greinke would feel about it.

 

Unless he is 100% Greinke will resign with us you can't base decisions on that.

 

Hart has value. Not only will he help a team this year but next year as well. And the team that gets him could theoretically get a draft pick if he leaves. And his salary isn't that bad. I think a team like Pittsburgh, maybe SF, would make sense. Atlanta may still be interested. But you don't just give him away. From Pitt I'd need Marte plus and from Atlanta I'd want Teheran and Pastornicky.

 

I just hope Melvin has a plan. I do give him credit for the Greinke deal but again, unless Greinke resigns I don't see this team contending next season. I'd still like to see him make a few more trades to help get the payroll back in order and to set up a yearly run beginning in 2014. That means Ramirez and/or Hart.

[jjfanec]

The main reason I would trade Hart now is because the teams vying for him will be limited. Who would really need him? People say the Braves but they have Heyward, Prado, and Freeman at Hart's positions. I could see the Giants. I think the off-season is the best time when teams all have hope

[StearnsFTW]

I put very little stock in Baseball America, it'd be easy for anybody with a set of minor league statistics and a list of draft status to put a list together. Honestly, I think that they know little more than a lot of fans, and I think that they put these lists together solely based on minor league stats and/or draft position. I'd be willing to bet that the bust rate of their Top 100 lists 10 and more years out is quite high.

 

I, just, wow.

 

Why? Look at the results based on their past lists. Go ten years and out and look.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

 

The 75-100 players are generally about 80% misses, with many laughable. They aren't much better on their 20-74 rankings. Heck, a lot of years their Top 10 rankings are a joke in hindsight. My point is that their ratings should be taken with a grain of salt not as the gospel as a lot of people here seem to do. I'm not saying that their ratings are completely worthless, but they shouldn't be given the reverence that many give them. Again, this is not a video game, guys' 'rankings' don't translate automatically to their skill in the game.

 

As for trading quality for quantity, almost exactly 16 years ago, Sal Bando traded Greg Vaughn for a package including two guys from BA 'Top 100'. I'd bet that a lot of people here would have been all over that, especially when Marc Newfield started off as hot as he did.

 

Bottom line, prospects are far for a sure thing. It is a major risk to start dumping all of your established talent for them, especially when you have a fallow farm system. Your odds of 'retooling' certainly are very low, you are more likely to end up in a Sal Bando/Dean Taylor cycle. If you start dumping guys for young talent, may as well do it full bore and admit that you are rebuilding. Do you think that Attanasio and especially Melvin are going to be on board for that at this point?

 

 

2006:

76. Jay Bruce

77. Dustin Pedroia

78. Kendry Morales

79. Jason Hammel

80. Josh Johnson

87. Ricky Romero

89. Andre Ethier

96. Matt Kemp

 

2007:

80. Jeff Samardzija

81. Daniel Bard

84. Ubaldo Jimenez

87. Brandon Morrow

88. Drew Stubbs

89. Kurt Suzuki

90. Matt Harrison

97. Wade Davis

 

2008:

93. Neftali Feliz

97. Chris Perez

99. Jeff Niemann

100. Drew Stubbs

 

2009:

77. Jonathan Niese

79. Jeff Samardzija

80. Desmond Jennings

81. Brett Lawrie

87. Freddie Freeman

88. Gerardo Parra

91. Chris Perez

97. Gio Gonzalez

98. Daniel Bard

 

That's a lot of really good players in the 76-100 range. I didn't think prospects in that range were as good as they are until you pointed it out.

[monty57]

The main reason I would trade Hart now is because the teams vying for him will be limited. Who would really need him? People say the Braves but they have Heyward, Prado, and Freeman at Hart's positions. I could see the Giants. I think the off-season is the best time when teams all have hope

 

If Melvin doesn't get a good offer now, there's no problem waiting for the offseason. I just think he should be traded prior to next season, as his trade value will drop after the start of next season.

 

As to the Braves, Prado has been playing a lot of 3B and even SS, so they may have a spot for Hart. On that note, they may have a spot for Ramirez this offseason when Chipper's gone. I think right now they're looking for a stud SP, but if they set their sights on Hart, I'm sure Doug's still interested in their minor league pitching.

[PilprinBuddha]

I only trade Hart if i think Aoki and Gamel will man the positions that he plays. Otherwise I keep him. I like him better as a 1b than an OF.

[jjfanec]

The main reason I would trade Hart now is because the teams vying for him will be limited. Who would really need him? People say the Braves but they have Heyward, Prado, and Freeman at Hart's positions. I could see the Giants. I think the off-season is the best time when teams all have hope

 

If Melvin doesn't get a good offer now, there's no problem waiting for the offseason. I just think he should be traded prior to next season, as his trade value will drop after the start of next season.

 

As to the Braves, Prado has been playing a lot of 3B and even SS, so they may have a spot for Hart. On that note, they may have a spot for Ramirez this offseason when Chipper's gone. I think right now they're looking for a stud SP, but if they set their sights on Hart, I'm sure Doug's still interested in their minor league pitching.

 

I didnt realize Prado was playing those other positions. I would be very open sending Hart their way if they are willing to part with some pitching or a 3B prospect. Not sure what their system looks like

[monty57]

I don't doubt that Hart would put up better numbers than Gamel at 1B next year, but then he'd leave as a free agent. I'd let Gamel get a year at 1B (in a year we probably won't compete anyway) to see if he can be an answer at 1B for a few years, or at least to build up his trade value so we can move him when Morris is MLB ready.

 

Right now, with 1.5 years of "control" at a reasonable price, Hart could probably bring a package similar to what we got for Greinke. If we wait until trade deadline next year, he would bring back significantly less. If we were stocking up for a World Series run in 2013, I'd keep Hart and let him help the Brewers as a player. In the situation we're in, I'd trade him and let him help the Brewers by bringing back some guys who can be part of the run in 2014 and beyond, and who we'll control for six years.

[monty57]

The main reason I would trade Hart now is because the teams vying for him will be limited. Who would really need him? People say the Braves but they have Heyward, Prado, and Freeman at Hart's positions. I could see the Giants. I think the off-season is the best time when teams all have hope

 

If Melvin doesn't get a good offer now, there's no problem waiting for the offseason. I just think he should be traded prior to next season, as his trade value will drop after the start of next season.

 

As to the Braves, Prado has been playing a lot of 3B and even SS, so they may have a spot for Hart. On that note, they may have a spot for Ramirez this offseason when Chipper's gone. I think right now they're looking for a stud SP, but if they set their sights on Hart, I'm sure Doug's still interested in their minor league pitching.

 

I didnt realize Prado was playing those other positions. I would be very open sending Hart their way if they are willing to part with some pitching or a 3B prospect. Not sure what their system looks like

 

Yeah, it shows how little faith the Braves have in Pastronicky. When Simmons went down, they called him up, but sat him on the bench while Prado played SS, and then traded for Janisch.

[Mr Southpaw]

Back to Atlanta. Living here, all people talk about is when will Chipper get hurt again and the lack of a right handed power bat off the bench. Prado has to play both short and third quite a bit because Chipper is an old man at third and they really don't have an answer at short. Corey Hart fits their needs right now and so does A Ram. I thindk Dougie needs to be shopping in Atlanta!

[ninja33]

I don't doubt that Hart would put up better numbers than Gamel at 1B next year, but then he'd leave as a free agent. I'd let Gamel get a year at 1B (in a year we probably won't compete anyway) to see if he can be an answer at 1B for a few years, or at least to build up his trade value so we can move him when Morris is MLB ready.

 

Right now, with 1.5 years of "control" at a reasonable price, Hart could probably bring a package similar to what we got for Greinke. If we wait until trade deadline next year, he would bring back significantly less. If we were stocking up for a World Series run in 2013, I'd keep Hart and let him help the Brewers as a player. In the situation we're in, I'd trade him and let him help the Brewers by bringing back some guys who can be part of the run in 2014 and beyond, and who we'll control for six years.

 

I think you listen to offers right now, but if you're not blown away you don't make a deal. See how the offseason plays out in regards to the rotation, and if it looks like the team can be competitive then you keep him. If it's going to be Gallardo and a bunch of rookies, then you deal him and continue to set up for 2014. The team likely isn't going to scream "world series contender", but if Marcum comes back for a year and the rotation fills out nicely behind those two (i agree we'd be missing an ace) you could be looking at an 85ish win team. which with the right breaks gets you into the playoffs, and who knows from there. I'm not disagreeing with you, but there's an opportunity to reload in the offseason for 2013 without sacrificing 2014 and beyond. The team just wouldn't be set up quite as well for 2014+.

[GAME05]

i keep thinking that the December Meetings would be the perfect time to trade Hart and maybe even ARam. i don't really see any reason to keep Hart since Gamel needs a chance at full-time work and Aoki is cheap. that'd be a good amount of salary relief. i know you don't really trade for bullpen help, but we might be in a position where grabbing three pitchers with closer's potential would really help us the next few years.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I honestly think the chances are better that Hart signs an extension this offseason than gets traded. I'm not saying this is what I'd do, I just think it's what'll happen. He seems like a guy that'll be around for awhile, like it or not. Now Ramirez on the other hand, I could definitely see getting traded at some point. I do see both of them being on the opening day roster next year though, unless Doug gets blown away by an offer.

[RockCoCougars]

Again, the issue with me is if you save money on a guy like Hart, where do you apply it? Quite frankly, the FA list for the off-season is a tad appalling. The Brewers just traded number one on the list, and let's just say that the list of positional players is 'thin'. Would you want them to trade Hart and Ramirez and then give most of the money to a guy like Hamilton, who has been worse than Rickie Weeks since his early season tear? The pitching is also pretty thin, and because it's so thin, guys are going to be getting overpaid in a big way. If they dump guys like Hart and Ramirez solely for salary relief, they may as well do the old Marlins method and tear the whole thing apart, looking into moving guys like Gallardo, Weeks and Lucroy as well.

[trwi7]

Again, the issue with me is if you save money on a guy like Hart, where do you apply it? Quite frankly, the FA list for the off-season is a tad appalling.

 

Why do they have to spend it this offseason?

[RockCoCougars]

Again, the issue with me is if you save money on a guy like Hart, where do you apply it? Quite frankly, the FA list for the off-season is a tad appalling.

 

Why do they have to spend it this offseason?

 

They don't have to, but I bet that they will. With all the free agent defections and non tenders, there should be at least 25 million off the books for next season. Trade Hart or Ramirez and you are in the 35-40 million range. Maybe Attanasio would be in for a rebuild and he would consider the drop in attendance to be OK because of the lower payroll, but I doubt it. I fully expect Melvin to be in on the Dempster/Lohse, etc. sweepstakes unless Attanasio tells him to slash payroll. If they do a rebuild, I would greatly prefer a complete one then a partial, that's for sure, and in that case we are looking to be at least three years out.... to me, that means move everyone except for Braun. As we stand right now, there is only one contract that is looking bad down the road. If that means keeping Weeks too, I'm OK with that, because I think he bounces back.

[RWeeksFan23]

Again, the issue with me is if you save money on a guy like Hart, where do you apply it? Quite frankly, the FA list for the off-season is a tad appalling.

 

Why do they have to spend it this offseason?

 

They don't have to, but I bet that they will. With all the free agent defections and non tenders, there should be at least 25 million off the books for next season. Trade Hart or Ramirez and you are in the 35-40 million range. Maybe Attanasio would be in for a rebuild and he would consider the drop in attendance to be OK because of the lower payroll, but I doubt it. I fully expect Melvin to be in on the Dempster/Lohse, etc. sweepstakes unless Attanasio tells him to slash payroll. If they do a rebuild, I would greatly prefer a complete one then a partial, that's for sure, and in that case we are looking to be at least three years out.... to me, that means move everyone except for Braun. As we stand right now, there is only one contract that is looking bad down the road. If that means keeping Weeks too, I'm OK with that, because I think he bounces back.

What would be wrong with going after Dempster/Lohse?

[GoToHelfaer]

What would be wrong with going after Dempster/Lohse?

 

Personally I wouldn't prefer it. Lohse will be 34 in October, Dempster will be 36 next May. Signing either at the 2-4 year deals at the $15m+ per that they'll command is really risky. While the position FA market is awful, there are a decent list of pitchers that will potentially be available. I'd take the younger/cheaper approach. I mentioned them in another thread but Anibal Sanchez (29), Joe Saunders (32), Brandon McCarthy (30) and Colby Lewis (33) are a little younger and project to be much cheaper. There's more available and rumors that the Angels are going to buyout the final year of Dan Haren and Ervin Santana.

[monty57]

They don't have to, but I bet that they will. With all the free agent defections and non tenders, there should be at least 25 million off the books for next season. Trade Hart or Ramirez and you are in the 35-40 million range.

 

But trading Hart is not really about the money, as he's signed for a pretty reasonable salary next season ($10.333MM). To me, it's that the Brewers probably aren't going to be a playoff team next year, and Hart will be a free agent after the season. We can either trade him, let him walk as a free agent or extend him. Of those three options, I'd prefer trading him and if that's the direction we're headed, he should get much more return if the trade is done prior to the start of next season.

 

The fact that the Brewers would have a lower payroll and more financial flexibility is an added benefit, but not the main reason I would like to see Hart traded. If he wasn't a free agent until after the 2014 season, I doubt his name would be coming up nearly as often in trade rumors.

 

I honestly think the chances are better that Hart signs an extension this offseason than gets traded.

 

You could be right, and that wouldn't be the end of the world, but I'd rather see him traded. We have Aoki playing for 10% of Hart's salary next season in RF and Gamel at 5% of his salary at 1B. Both of them should be able to be competent MLB players. Then we have Kh Davis just getting moved up to AAA and knocking the cover off the ball, and Hunter Morris playing well in AA. Hart signed a "Brewer friendly" extension before, but would make quite a bit more to extend again, and I think we're going to have younger, cheaper options over the next few seasons making Hart expendable. If we could get a "Greinke-style" return for Hart, we could really stock up our farm, setting us up for good things in the not-too-distant future.

 

Maybe Attanasio would be in for a rebuild and he would consider the drop in attendance to be OK because of the lower payroll, but I doubt it.

 

We're not that far off from being a good MLB team, so I don't think a complete "blow up" is anywhere on the radar. I think we'll be down a bit next season because there's a chance we'll have 3-4 "unproven" guys in the starting rotation. If Fiers and Estrada can continue to pitch the way they have, we could be a decent team next year, but I'm not holding out hopes for a playoff run in 2013. We have a pretty good AA team, and they should be MLB ready by next season or 2014. If we use next year to "break in" guys like Segura, Schafer, Fiers, Peralta, Rogers, Davis, etc, we could find some gems. We'll then be able to spend some of the money prior to the 2014 season to fill any holes we'll have at that point and have a pretty good team. To topic, I just think that Hart fits into the plan better by getting traded for young guys than he does by playing out next season and leaving as a free agent, or by getting extended and blocking younger, cheaper guys who in 2-3 years could be better players than Hart.