Mr. Hart

[Dollarbill13]

We should be able to get something decent from LA for Ramirez. His contract is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be. He essentially has $33M left over 2.5 seasons or $13M per season. $13M on the free agent market will get you about 2.5-3 WAR. He's already produced 2.4 WAR for us. You can factor in some regression but Ramirez will probably be at least be worth what remains on his contract. In terms of what we could get... I'd love to have a guy like Jerry Sands in our lineup. I wonder if that would be feasible for LA.

[igor67]

Ramirez and Hart are similar in that they are both being paid about what they are worth. Mostly because of age Ramirez seems more likely to actually be a negative at some point. Based on that factor he probably makes more sense to trade, but on the other hand in the uncertain prospect world Green is the only other potential starting replacement on deck. Hart does have more people who could potentially replace him. In both cases replacing them might be harder than some imagine. Both consistently can deliver offense north of an .850 OPS. Green can't really match that , though he can make up some amount of ground defensively. To help put some of this in more perspective despite the injuries and black holes the Brewers are still 5th in the NL in runs and 4th in OPS. Braun is obviously the most important player in the line-up, but the Brewers are a good offensive team because they still have a number of other very good hitters. I'm going on a bit because a number of times is has come up that Hart or Ramirez would look better lower in the line-up. Well this is undoubtedly true, but it misleads. The Brewers have the 4th best clean-up production in the NL! If those two were hitting 5th and 6th they'd be right behind the league leaders in OPS at that batting order.

There is a substantial risk if you burn the line-up to the ground looking for younger players you will take the teams strength and leave us with the Dean Taylor years part II. I'm not saying hold onto every veteran, but lowering payroll doesn't automatically put more talent into the system!

[PrinceEatMeat]

There's no way Melvin trades Ramirez after half a season. Obviously he should consider it depending on the offer, but seems incredibly far fetched at this point. He may trade him at some point during the contract, but not after half a season. There's a reason he signed him in the first place. I think most of us are in agreement that it's a bad contract, but I don't think Melvin and Mark A agree.

[fondybrewfan]

I agree that trading Aram seems pretty darn unlikely at this point. Hart would seem the much more likely of the two to get traded. Aram's contract really isn't that bad and I do wonder why people are so eager to shed that salary. Except for a bad April he has been great. I suppose you could make the argument that you try to sell high on the guy but Mark can't just have a firesale; they need to stay atleast somewhat competitive to appease the fan base. Trading away every tradeable piece you have would be pretty unwise.

[jerichoholicninja]

Can Ramirez even be traded in the first year of his contract? I thought there was a rule that players in the first year of a multi-year deal couldn't be traded.

[gregmag]

There's no way Melvin trades Ramirez after half a season. Obviously he should consider it depending on the offer, but seems incredibly far fetched at this point. He may trade him at some point during the contract, but not after half a season. There's a reason he signed him in the first place. I think most of us are in agreement that it's a bad contract, but I don't think Melvin and Mark A agree.

 

I don't think the Ramirez contract is bad, for the reason DollarBill and others before have argued: his production actually warrants what he's being paid. The interesting variable is that a contract that's objectively "good" -- one that provides market value -- may not be good for a noncontending team. You don't want to pay market value for players when they aren't going to win you anything. On that basis, two seemingly contradictory things may be true: (1) Signing Ramirez when we thought we could contend this year (and beyond?) was a good idea. (2) Trading Ramirez as we expect not to contend this year (and beyond?) is a good idea. A lot can happen in a half season.

[Oldcity]

He's likely earning what he's getting paid now, however, his salary goes up in the coming years as his performance should be expected to decline. They won't be able to trade him then; if they're selling, they should do it now if they have a taker.

[endaround]

Can Ramirez even be traded in the first year of his contract? I thought there was a rule that players in the first year of a multi-year deal couldn't be traded.

There are two things going on here. One players who sign a FA contract can't be traded until after June 1st (I believe), Basically it keeps them from getting the Arroyo screw job if they have enough service time. The second (I think its still in the CBA), if a player signs a multiyear FA contract and is traded in the middle of it he can demand trade the following off season. So if Ramirez is traded this year, he can demand the receiving team trade him by the following (2013) offseason or he becomes a free agent.

[Oldcity]

But then, of course, he'd give up his guaranteed money. I'm not sure he'd get a contract as lucrative this coming off-season.

[Dollarbill13]

He's likely earning what he's getting paid now, however, his salary goes up in the coming years as his performance should be expected to decline. They won't be able to trade him then; if they're selling, they should do it now if they have a taker.

 

This could easily be worked around if we threw a few million into the trade. It'd then be the equivalent of paying him, say, a $10M salary in year 1 rather than $6M and leaving less money on his contract for the last two years.

[PilprinBuddha]

If Hart is willing to continue to play 1B...I want us to keep him...We need a left handed bat in this lineup. A corner OF player might....note might...be easier to get.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, they already have a LH corner OF- Aoki. You could move him to CF, but he really isn't an ideal every day CF. The Hart/Aram combo is causing a logjam- both financially and logistically. As others have said, it's not like either one of them aren't playing up to their contracts. But like you, I would like to see a LH with power. And that most likely comes from 1B/3B.

[Invader3K]

Hunter Morris happens to be a left handed 1B who is putting up pretty nice numbers at Huntsville right now.

[paul253]

Mat Gamel is also left handed.

[endaround]

Hart has little value at 1B. His value is in RF. No reason to keep him to have him play 1B.

[TheCrew07]

I was thinking about my long drawn out response, and I could have made it much easier.

 

As far as being competitive, I'm not looking to win a season, I'm looking to beat the system and establish Milwaukee as a power organization in MLB. The ultimate goal of winning a WS will be shared between myself and many people, but how we get there is a completely different idea.

 

The prevailing wisdom in baseball is that if a small market gets "close" they need to go for it because they might not get another chance, but from where I'm sitting that's just playing into the hands of the larger market teams whom carry all of the advantage in the first place. It shortens the competitive window significantly when a small market team trades for rentals or short duration players, those impact players hit FA and become impact players for the highest bidders. The way to beat the system is to control costs by acquiring wins at far below market rate, the easiest way to do that is to control the most valuable commodity in the game which is young impact pitching.

 

I don't see myself competing with the NL Central or National League, I'm raging against the system. Like I said when our position players and Gallardo finally all arrived my focus switched to maintaining success over a long period time and building a team that could legitimately compete for a WS year after year. It was then I realized how dire the pitching situation was and it was that revelation that started my disdain for Melvin. As I became more aware of how key pitching is to baseball, my entire focus towards the Brewer organization began to change and through my research I found teams that were building the way I wanted the Brewers to build.

 

Baseball isn't either advanced metrics or scouting anymore than it is veterans/free agents or prospects, the answers to the most important questions are all in that middle ground. Many teams have proven that young players can and will succeed and contribute to WS appearances and titles, you don't need to have a veteran team to win a WS or sustain success. There are simply more and I would argue better solutions available than the tact Melvin has taken.

 

I say again that when you're simply looking to be average or better at every position because most teams are going to have holes in their roster then you are simply building to be mediocre and that's exactly what Melvin has done. That level of mediocrity directly led to Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke... not fate, not wisdom, not an aggressive nature, just simply one man's philosophy on baseball and how to ensure that he never makes a mistake like the Justin Thompson trade again..

[Dollarbill13]

I'm not sure you can pin our lack of success on developing pitching on Melvin. Jack Z was in charge of most of those drafts that produced a ton of hitting and no pitching. Now pitching is the strength of our farm system and Melvin is still here.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, I realize Gamel and Morris are LH. Pretty much what I'm saying, either Hart or Ramirez need to be moved to make room for one of them. Or any other LH bat for that matter. Corner OF isn't an option unless Aoki is not a solution there for the next 3-4 years. (And I think he is.)

[Raw Biz]

I'm not sure you can pin our lack of success on developing pitching on Melvin. Jack Z was in charge of most of those drafts that produced a ton of hitting and no pitching. Now pitching is the strength of our farm system and Melvin is still here.

 

I'm not so sure I agree Billy. Melvin was pretty good at acquiring hitting during his Texas days but wasn't very good at evaluating pitching then either. That could just be a coincidence or perhaps he really didn't give much input on pitching. I just think the Texas and Milwaukee years are both similar in that they were pretty darn good offensively but lacking in pitching (minus the past 2 years for us).

[yoyo49]

I know the topic was brought up in this thread, but feel free to create another thread if necessary:

 

Tim Brown ‏@TBrownYahoo

If Brewers decide to sell, Dodgers have identified Aramis Ramirez as possible 3B upgrade. Prefer Chase Headley, however.

[Oldcity]

Please...

[rluzinski]

I would trade anyone for the right package. Hart is owned a little over $4 mil more this year and $10 mil this year. He's definitely worth more than that, however. His production this year is probably irrelevant to the Brewers, so they would only be trading a year's worth of relevant production away. I only skimmed this thread but has it been mentioned that he has a partial no trade clause?

 

I assume that Ramirez would be worth much less in a trade than Hart. I would be a lot more excited to move him for even a middle of the road prospect. I didn't hate the signing when it was made but this year was obviously the best year of the deal.

[RockCoCougars]

You do realize that being a top 75 prospect in all of MiLB is a really big honor, right? I can only speak for myself, but your dismissive attitude toward not just prospect rankings, but indirectly those who read and discuss them, has been pretty off-putting lately.

 

In this kind of discussion, "gives great value" & "*has given* great value..." are two very different things.

 

Just saw this. My attitude toward breaking up a team that went to the NLCS less than a year ago solely to stockpile 'Top 100' prospects certainly has been dismissive. I believe that a bird in the hand is greater than two in the bush. I've been following the Brewers for a long time, and if I know one thing it's that prospects are far from a guarantee. I put very little stock in Baseball America, it'd be easy for anybody with a set of minor league statistics and a list of draft status to put a list together. Honestly, I think that they know little more than a lot of fans, and I think that they put these lists together solely based on minor league stats and/or draft position. I'd be willing to bet that the bust rate of their Top 100 lists 10 and more years out is quite high. BTW, Antoine Williamson and countless other Brewer busts over the years have been 'Top 75'. Saying that being 'Top 75' is not much more of an honor than saying that so and so was a 'former first round pick'.

 

Frankly, the attitude of some fans here who I see as treating the team like a video game has been a bit off-putting to me. I've asked several times here, 'if you trade Hart and/or Ramirez, Weeks, Gallardo, etc., where will you spend the money". I haven't gotten one good answer yet. It seems that these folks want to relive the '92-02 era where you trade any talent that 'gets expensive' for the best offer of minor leaguers/MLB players not good enough to play a role on a contending team, then sign overpaid mediocrity on the free agent market to fill holes. I hear about the Tampa model, but they have been a team that has drafted (admittedly pretty well as of late) high for several years, and they are under significant cost constraints due to ownership and the fact that they have to play in a dump. There are also a lot of Beane disciples here as well.

 

Bottom line, I honestly think that a lot of people have been spoiled by the high success rate that the Brewers have had on prospects over the past decade... Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, Hart, Weeks, Hardy, etc. with very few busts/injury derailments mixed in. I'd argue that this is the exception and not the rule, and I think that causes people here to overvalue prospects in general. I get that it's fun to talk about trade rumors and such is the nature of the web. That said, I've been through enough rebuilding projects as a fan of this team to start another one so soon.

[trwi7]

I put very little stock in Baseball America, it'd be easy for anybody with a set of minor league statistics and a list of draft status to put a list together. Honestly, I think that they know little more than a lot of fans, and I think that they put these lists together solely based on minor league stats and/or draft position. I'd be willing to bet that the bust rate of their Top 100 lists 10 and more years out is quite high.

 

I, just, wow.

[Raw Biz]

There is a difference in the type of prospect you trade for though. In the past 20 years, the Brewers have been all about quantity or quality. That's because they are always trying to fill holes at multiple positions. Sure the Sexson trade was great because we got quite a few useful players out of it. But that was a quantity trade. Obviously not all prospects will make it. I don't think anybody assumes that. But when you use all the tools at your disposal (scouts, scouting reports, stats, etc.), hopefully you can judge who will be more likely to make it and have an impact.

 

Sometimes things may not work out but you also need to be willing to take a risk at times. If you had a chance to trade for someone who was a high risk/high reward and you had to give up a guy like Hart, you probably wouldn't do it if you're contending. But if you don't think you have the pieces to contend for a year or two (at which point the contract will be up), then I say you go for it.