Mr. Hart

[Raw Biz]

I also wanted to address the draft pick compensation that people have been throwing around like it hadn't changed. I was under the impression that they had to be a top 10 player financially and you had to offer that much in arbitration to get the picks, or in other words only Greinke would grant us picks. I doubt Marcum fits into that build and Corey Hart wouldn't either. I haven't double checked the actual rules though if anyone knows better than I do.

 

You can offer anyone a, I believe this is what it is called, qualifying offer which is a one year contract that is the average of the 125 or so highest paid players. If the player accepts he gets the contract. If he declines you get picks from the team that signs him. It's almost exactly the same as the NFL's Franchise Tag.

 

This is correct. This year, that amount should be around 12.5-13 million. It doesn't matter who the player is or how much he made previously. That's why it's a no-brainer for some to accept (i.e. a guy like Izturis who is bad and made little money) and for some to decline (Greinke, who is awesome and made more than the likely offer). So obviously Izturis or someone like that wouldn't be offered a contract but it will be interesting for guys like Marcum or even KRod if he had a better year and we didn't already have a closer.

[jmeks23]

Thanks for the clarification guys, I was thinking it was top 10 at each position but it's just top 125 overall. Even still they won't offer that much to Marcum most likely and maybe to Hart, it depends on his production the next two years.

[reillymcshane]

Thanks for the clarification guys, I was thinking it was top 10 at each position but it's just top 125 overall. Even still they won't offer that much to Marcum most likely and maybe to Hart, it depends on his production the next two years.

If Marcum comes back and pitches well, i bet they offer him arby. A one year deal at $12-13 million is okay. It's nice not having the long term commitment to a guy. Plus, Marcum is likely going to be looking for a multi-year deal. If he can end up pitching well once he comes back, I wouldn't see it hard for him to land a 3-year (or longer) deal at $12+ million a season.

 

If for some reason he doesn't get the deal, we have a huge hole in the rotation filled for 2013, without the long term commitment.

[RockCoCougars]

Somebody somewhere on here said that we could get a 'Top 75 prospect' for Hart, and they were in for that. That's not selling high if you ask me, not even close. It would take a ton for me to trade Hart this season, if for no other reason than I'd have to watch the brutal Green/Ishikawa mashup at first for the rest of the season.

[trwi7]

It would take a ton for me to trade Hart this season, if for no other reason than I'd have to watch the brutal Green/Ishikawa mashup at first for the rest of the season.

 

What an awful reason not to trade a player or to not want to trade a player from a fan's perspective.

 

BTW:

 

Ishikawa - .247/.317/.479/.796

 

Hart - .251/.314/.498/.812

[fondybrewfan]

I don't know that having to watch Ishi and Green for 1/2 a season would be the worst thing in the world. If we are going to lose we might as well lose as much as possible. Ishi hasn't been that bad but I don't think he could keep it up on a regular basis.

 

The emergence of Hunter Morris as a legitimate prospect might make trading Hart a little more palatable. Plus you obviously have Gamel as well.

[igor67]

Morris has taken a big step forward as a prospect, but he is still far below what Hart's prospect status was. I'm not opposed to trading Hart, but our best current position prospects have ceilings that touch what Corey has done. Which makes it difficult to just plug in a replacement and project similar performance. I suspect part of the difficulty of putting Corey in perspective has been that his offensive peak has largely coincided with the league wide decline in offense. a 130 OPS+ is pretty good as a RF or 1st basemen. Not perennial All-Star, but pretty hard to replace. This year the OPS+ is down to 112 right now, but that looks largely driven by a lower than normal batting average. Barring a really good offer of talent with how Corey has gone back to playing 1st base I think most of the best combinations of teams going forward probably have him playing first, and sorting out CF and RF from the host of players with similar values, but different skill sets.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree that Hart has been a better bat than some have given him credit for, but the comparison should be btw what a prime-aged Gamel or Morris would be able to hit v. what a 32+ Hart would be able to hit... and further, what value Hart would provide compared to how much it'd take to re-sign him (something like 4 yrs./$70M)

[paul253]

One guy I've always thought would be a good option at first base is Khris Davis. Obviously he's never played there yet but from what I understand he has a Moises Alou type arm in the outfield? He hits for a ton of power and while not "tall" he's not short either. With Ryan Braun entrenched in left field and his arm not good enough for right a move to first down the line may be a wise move.

[TURBO]

I saw Khris Davis play in Appleton for an entire season, and his arm was not that bad. Not once did I watch him play and think that his arm sucks. I'd say he was average in that department, not below average, but average. Also, he is short, not sure what he is listed as, but I doubt he is any taller than Prince. We have become spoiled when watching Hart at 1B, picking things in the dirt and reaching all over the place for balls Prince wouldn't be able to get to. I like a tall lanky 1B myself, and that is exactly what Hart is.

[TURBO]

I saw Khris Davis play in Appleton for an entire season, and his arm was not that bad. Not once did I watch him play and think that his arm sucks. I'd say he was average in that department, not below average, but average. Also, he is short, not sure what he is listed as, but I doubt he is any taller than Prince. We have become spoiled when watching Hart at 1B, picking things in the dirt and reaching all over the place for balls Prince wouldn't be able to get to. I like a tall lanky 1B myself, and that is exactly what Hart is.

[paul253]

Well he's listed at 6'0'', so two inches taller than Prince. I believe Mat Gamel is also listed at 6'0'' and we seemed ok with him at first. Good to hear Davis' arm isn't as bad as I thought it was. Perhaps Braun will eventually move to right?

 

But my reasoning for bringing him up is because, along with Morris and Gamel, it seems like we have plenty of options for people who have the ability to hold down first base in the near future. So again, I just question the reasoning behind signing a 32 year old to a 3 or 4 year deal at $10-$15 million a year when you have other options. That money could be spent better elsewhere. For $10 million you could probably get two good to really good bullpen arms. Not the elite closer type but solid arms.

[monty57]

I agree that Hart has been a better bat than some have given him credit for, but the comparison should be btw what a prime-aged Gamel or Morris would be able to hit v. what a 32+ Hart would be able to hit... and further, what value Hart would provide compared to how much it'd take to re-sign him (something like 4 yrs./$70M)

 

...and you have to consider what you would get back in trade for Hart.

[TheCrew07]

if for no other reason than I'd have to watch the brutal Green/Ishikawa mashup at first for the rest of the season.

 

I've been avoiding this idea for a long time because I didn't want to offend not just you but people who share your similar opinion.

 

Isn't it awfully selfish and shortsighted to view the team from this perspective? It's like what people are really saying is that they want to watch meaningful baseball as long as possible so let's wait to do anything until the last minute and then we have football as a distraction so they won't care anymore. Which of course makes it very easy to dismiss the various well thought out posts about getting the best ultimate value from the situation. Is that why the same throw away lines keep getting repeated by so many, it doesn't matter how intelligent the counter argument is if the idea is contrary to what we want out of our personal fandom? I want the playoffs every year so the end always justifies the means?

 

Another buy thread popped up again as well... buy with what? Or rather buy with whom? If we're competing head to head I'll fight until the bitter end, I just won't quit, I'm too spiteful a competitor for that, always have been. However all of this discussion is about making the best out of a bad situation... we have contracts that are expiring, we have a maxed payroll, we have a thin farm system, we have a ton of injuries... Shouldn't the question be how do we position ourselves so this scenario (which could have happened last year as well) doesn't happen again, not how can I watch meaningful baseball for as long as possible? This isn't about what we would do between the lines if we had the talent, it's about how to properly manage the situation to move the organization forward.

[RockCoCougars]

It would take a ton for me to trade Hart this season, if for no other reason than I'd have to watch the brutal Green/Ishikawa mashup at first for the rest of the season.

 

What an awful reason not to trade a player or to not want to trade a player from a fan's perspective.

 

BTW:

 

Ishikawa - .247/.317/.479/.796

 

Hart - .251/.314/.498/.812

 

Well, that's not my primary reason for wanting to hold onto him. He gives great production for his pricetag. $9 million for someone who is probably going to hit enough homers this season to have averaged around 30 the past three years. That's a steal, and I'm not giving him away for some fringe prospect, just because some rag says they are "Top 75".

[TooLiveBrew]

You do realize that being a top 75 prospect in all of MiLB is a really big honor, right? I can only speak for myself, but your dismissive attitude toward not just prospect rankings, but indirectly those who read and discuss them, has been pretty off-putting lately.

 

In this kind of discussion, "gives great value" & "*has given* great value..." are two very different things.

[Outlander]

That is your opinion, I tend to agree with him. Very few of those prospects will have as good a career as Hart or be able to even match his production over the remainder of his career.

[Eye Black]

You do realize that being a top 75 prospect in all of MiLB is a really big honor, right? I can only speak for myself, but your dismissive attitude toward not just prospect rankings, but indirectly those who read and discuss them, has been pretty off-putting lately.

 

In this kind of discussion, "gives great value" & "*has given* great value..." are two very different things.

 

+1. Well stated.

 

Scoffing at the idea of acquiring prospects not ranked in the top 10 seems short-sighted. Obviously some top 100 prospects don't work out. But sometimes they end up being pretty darn good. A few that come to mind: Fielder (BA #78 in 2002), Grienke (BA #52 in 2002), Braun (BA #49 in 2005, #26 in 2006), and Hart (BA #91 in 2002).

[trwi7]

One thing to also note is just because a guy is ranked 75th on a prospect list doesn't mean he'll stay there or drop on the prospect list later. Anthony Rizzo was rated the 75th best prospect in 2011 and moved up to 47 in 2012. Would anyone here not trade Hart for Rizzo if the oppurtunity came along? Jay Bruce was the 76th best prospect by BA in 2006 and jumped to 14th in 2007. Prince Fielder was 78th in 2003 and jumped to 10th in 2004.

[paul253]

Very few of those prospects will have as good a career as Hart or be able to even match his production over the remainder of his career.

 

We don't need to measure a "career" for a prospect vs Hart's career when determining whether or not to trade him. We've already had Corey Hart for the prime of his career. We just need to determine if what we can get back will be more valuable to us down the road than what Corey Hart will give us.

 

Scenario A: You keep Hart and extend him for 3 years and $40 million. He puts up decent numbers and plays good defense at first.

 

Scenario B. You trade Hart for a prospect who starts in Milwaukee in 2013. He's paid the league minimum and is cheap for a number of years. He puts up decent numbers but not quite as good as Corey Harts.

 

You could argue, depending on what you value more, on which scenario is better. In Scenario A you get a well liked guy who puts up better numbers. But in Scenario B you get a guy who is cheaper and may allow you to use that money elsewhere to improve your team....say in the bullpen. So what do you do? I tend to take the position that even though Mat Gamel may not put up the power numbers Corey Hart does I'd be ok giving him the job at first because a) I'd like to see what he can do. His numbers in the minors suggest he has the ability to be a good offensive player b) he is much younger and c) he is much cheaper. This team needs help. A lot of help. I don't believe putting Corey Hart at first base over Mat Gamel is going to make as significant an impact on the team's chances next year as signing two solid relievers would. Or using Hart's money to sign Greinke would.

 

And you aren't just giving Corey Hart away. I would expect a fairly high ranked prospect in return for him, be it a pitcher, shortstop, or whatever. His trade value should be pretty high considering he still has an entire year left on his contract.

[NievesNoNO]

if for no other reason than I'd have to watch the brutal Green/Ishikawa mashup at first for the rest of the season.

 

....... Shouldn't the question be how do we position ourselves so this scenario (which could have happened last year as well) doesn't happen again, not how can I watch meaningful baseball for as long as possible? This isn't about what we would do between the lines if we had the talent, it's about how to properly manage the situation to move the organization forward.

 

At this point this is my feeling as well. I'm all about making a run at a championship when it presents itself. I'd do the past trades for CC, Greinke, and Marcum over again. They made a run and it and didn't get there. It was fun and worth while. Now there's a real opportunity, as you stated, to improve the franchise in a year where they're not in a very good position to make the playoffs. The extra wild card should actually help teams looking to sell. The Brewers have had some bad luck this year and plenty of under-performers so why not build up the system a bit. The do have a strong enough nucleus I believe to turn things back around in short time, maybe even next season.

 

As for Hart, I'd be open to trade most anybody for the appropriate return. He should be able to net a very nice prospect as a top 15-25 outfielder. He should be able to return two prospects in the top 100.

 

With Greinke, Hart, Weeks, Marcum and maybe K-Rod they could do a nice job or restocking the system.

[Eye Black]

Per Rosenthal, the Indians inquired on Hart and were told he is unavailable. I am curious if it's "he is unavailable until we decide we are sellers" or "he is unavailable, and don't call back".

[paul253]

If he is completely unavailable I am going to be very upset. Melvin's over-reliance on older veterans really gets to me sometimes.

[logan82]

If we're competing head to head I'll fight until the bitter end, I just won't quit, I'm too spiteful a competitor for that, always have been.

I agree with you on a lot of things but I don't believe this at all. You didn't like the CC trade or the Greinke trade. How can you state you will fight to the bitter end but dislike going for it in some years?

[TheCrew07]

Because there's a difference between playing a game, any game, being a fierce competitor on the field, court, whatever... hell my brother and I even go at it playing ping pong, that's just how we are wired... but that's a far cry from watching how an organization is operated from afar. I will say I haven't been to a game this year, I dropped my limited season package a couple of years ago, that's the only way I can really voice my opinion is to not buy tickets when I don't agree with the organization's direction. I think Melvin is completely the wrong type of GM for a small market like the Brewers and I won't renew until he's gone, most people in my own family don't agree me. Instead I go to T-Rat games and I still do watch Brewer games on TV though not as anywhere near as much as I did through 2010 so I still support the organization but I'm not going out of my way to do so like I did in the past.

 

When it comes to the Brewers, I'm not playing, I don't feel any pressure or don't associate any need to win or win now, I'm much more patient, probably because I'm not directly in control. I'm almost entirely concerned with ultimate value and building an organization that can sustain it's success outside of FA. Why? Simply because the Brewers are never going to players for marquee free agents the way the larger markets can be, there's going to be no filling of holes with that kind of impact through FA.

 

Essentially that means we're left with trades, the draft, and international signings. Escobar was the Brewers' only major success in this era from the international market though Aoki is looking to be pretty good, but neither player is really an impact player, the Brewers aren't spending the money that other teams are outside of the states to get a steady stream of Latin/international prospects to the big leagues.

 

That whittles it down to basically trades and FA. Most of Melvin's trades have been for low ceiling proven MLB talent or short duration impact talent, not the kind of trades or cycling of talent that would sustain an organization long term. We basically traded an entire wave of prospects for 4.5 seasons of pitching from 3 players, that's not good value regardless of the names. Yes we played in a NLCS but it could have just easily been this season as well because there's just no depth. Since we aren't going to be able to sustain ourselves through trades either we're pretty much down to the draft which is how we actually acquired the vast majority of our meaningful talent under Z.

 

I've rooted very hard for Seid, but his drafts haven't been all that inspiring to this point, Thornburg is probably his best draft pick thus far but Z was pulling in a couple of guys to be excited about every single draft. The Brewers scouting dept was literally raided 3 times, this isn't the same group of scouts that worked for Z, it's a different group that doesn't have any kind of proven track record drafting and developing players. So basically I don't have any of warm and fuzzy for the organization's future at this point in time.

 

The Brewers are doing many things I really believe in, the Dominican Academy turning into a classroom as a baseball academy is a fantastic idea, focusing on developing pitching, working more diligently to better develop the young athletes, they have made gains with the medical and training staffs under Melvin's watch compared to how atrocious things were prior, so there are some positive things to point towards besides the 2 playoff appearances.

 

I have a liked a small number of Melvin's moves, but overall I've pissed on every major deal he's made for pretty much the same reason, he's centered on the most expensive solution not just in terms of payroll but in cost to acquire as well in marquee named players. In his other trades he's been more concerned with ability to contribute at MLB than the actual level of the contribution, so all in all he's just an extremely conservative GM. My disdain for those trades comes from my perspective in regards to ultimate value, not from my competitive nature.

 

If you read the LRs on the minor league forum it's pretty obvious how badly I want our squads to beat up on our divisional opponents. I actually try not to interject that stuff but sometimes I just can't help myself. I hope TLB won't mind me posting this but we've had many conversations via PM, he's offered some much needed constructive criticism to me in the past, but he'd verify that I didn't enjoy last season at all because I was waiting for it to all come crashing down like it has in 2012. It appears that I'm viewing things from a much different place than people on the forum, even those that share my disdain for Melvin, but we have an aging and expensive roster with nothing much holding it up, I just don't excited about that sort of thing, it doesn't fit my value model at all.

 

Maybe as I'm thinking about my attitude here it's just that I've resigned myself to this averagishness with little spikes of success is the best we can hope for with Melvin at the helm. We aren't building or drafting to be great, we're aiming to be better than average at every position which Melvin himself has made clear on multiple occasions. I took quite a bit of flak regarding Jungmann in particular, but he just hasn't proven to be the impact player as the players drafted around him, nor has Bradley. I'm not a scout but I have been around sports my entire life, been fortunate to personally know some great coaches and professional athletes, I've literally spent 100s if not 1000s of hours reading about pitching and watching video and picking people's brains on various subjects. I've taken many of those concepts and modified them for developing QBs who actually tend to have cleaner mechanics than pitchers, and I do have a very good eye for talent, I'm just blunt and a pretty bad communicator, I do struggle to put my thoughts into words. I just have to being seeing players, value, and talent from an entirely different perspective than most. I desperately want to win a world series but I just don't see it happening with the way the organization is managed, so I've honestly become rather indifferent to what happens in Milwaukee. I used to live and die with every pitch and now the most I watched a game all season was when Thornburg pitched, I've become apathetic, it's not a good place to be as a fan, and I'm honestly not happy about it, but for whatever reason I still care about the Brewer organization.