Mr. Hart

[KCBrewerfan34]

The Brewers should definitely be exploring an extension with Hart, he likes it here and he can play 1B, which should prolong his career. He's been pretty darn good over there (6"6 sure helps)

[paul253]

According to Buster Olney, if the Brewers decide to sell, Hart will not be available.

Why would they? He may have the most trade value on the team and is on the downside of his career, but gosh darn it he is a veteran and we all know veterans are always automatically better than the younger guys. Why even bother seeing what other teams would give us for him?

he likes it here and he can play 1B, which should prolong his career. He's been pretty darn good over there (6"6 sure helps)

 

To resign him you'd probably have to give him at least 3 years. So you can pretty much write off Hunter Morris and Mat Gamel. Just like you could write off Taylor Green when Ramirez was signed. We are all sitting here wondering why we couldn't get Prince Fielder signed or why we don't have enough money to offer Greinke. But then we turn around and offer multiyear deals worth tens of millions of dollars to guys in their mid 30's. Quite honestly I'd rather take my chances on a guy like Mat Gamel or Hunter Morris for a tenth of the cost then Corey Hart. I like Hart. He's been a valuable member of the team for a long time. But offensively he is replaceable. He'll get you your home runs but he doesn't get on base, doesn't hit for average, and strikes out a ton. He's the kind of guy the Brewers need to walk away from, as opposed to overpay, so they can continue to compete and so you can have the resources available when you need to resign the superstars like Fielder or Greinke. I'll take Greinke and Gamel over Hart and Estrada any day of the week.

[RockCoCougars]

Paul, I think that you are going to be as happy when Hart is gone as I was when Suppan was released.

[PrinceEatMeat]

If we aren't even considering trading Hart, it's pretty obvious that he'll be extended this offseason.

[craigharmann]

he can play 1B

 

Yes, but there was quotes that when the possible 1B move was talked about in the offseason that he didn't like playing 1st. So there's that.

[paul253]

Paul, I think that you are going to be as happy when Hart is gone as I was when Suppan was released.

I'll be happy if Doug Melvin finally maximizes someone's value and trades them before they fall apart. I'd also be happy to offer Hart a one year deal when his contract runs out and take draft picks for him if he turns it down. I will not be happy offering a 3 or 4 year deal to a 32 year old first basemen who gets on base at a .320 clip.

 

Like I said, I don't dislike Corey Hart. I just have a problem when a team with as few resources as the Brewers doesn't use them wisely. Multi-year deals need to be reserved for players you consider "franchise players". At one time he was one. So was Weeks. But that time has come and gone. We need to move on.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Paul, I think that you are going to be as happy when Hart is gone as I was when Suppan was released.

I'll be happy if Doug Melvin finally maximizes someone's value and trades them before they fall apart. I'd also be happy to offer Hart a one year deal when his contract runs out and take draft picks for him if he turns it down. I will not be happy offering a 3 or 4 year deal to a 32 year old first basemen who gets on base at a .320 clip.

 

Like I said, I don't dislike Corey Hart. I just have a problem when a team with as few resources as the Brewers doesn't use them wisely. Multi-year deals need to be reserved for players you consider "franchise players". At one time he was one. So was Weeks. But that time has come and gone. We need to move on.

 

I'm with you on this one. I've been in the camp of trading Hart while he value was high for a few years now. Now that's even more of the case. Except I fear that his success at 1B will make Melvin and Attanasio want to extend him for 3-4 years for a contract they may regret and keep him there. I'd probably rather just get a good return for him now, and put Gamel back at 1B next year. Because with Hart at 1B, we'll just be back to the Gamel conundrum again. However, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have Hart at 1B. If it was actually a reasonable deal to keep him, it would make some sense. I just feel that they could get a good return for him at this point. But maybe they just plan to let him go into a contract year next year, and not extend him. Maybe trade him next year at the deadline if need be.

[monty57]

I don't think our not selling him this season means we're extending him. As long as we trade him prior to the start of next season, the receiving team would be able to get comp picks, so his value in trade now probably isn't that much higher than his value would be this offseason. Melvin has gone on record many times saying that he feels you get better value for pitching during the season and for bats in the offseason. We could very easily let Hart play our this season while Gamel is hurt, and then trade him in the offseason for a pretty good return.

 

Even if we decide to sell, Attanasio and Melvin will not want to look like they're completely rebuilding. That would cause fans to stop attending games, and that is something they don't want to happen. They can sell the fans on "we're trading guys before we lose them for nothing" this season, and hope the excitement of watching the young players will keep coming out to the ballpark. Then in the offseason, they can spin a Hart trade as "Gamel is our 1B and Aoki is our RF, so that makes a 30-something Hart expendable," and most fans won't pay it much heed as they will be more worried about the Packers.

[Invader3K]

I wonder if Melvin has already gotten some real low ball trade offers for Hart, and is "taking him off the market" just for now. Maybe if the team really falls out of contention in the next couple weeks, Doug will suddenly start listening again.

[Dollarbill13]

I'd have to think Ethier's extension would be what Hart's agent presents as a comparable. Maybe he'd settle for 4 years instead of 5 or a slightly lower AAV but I think it would take one of these:

 

4 yrs / $68M

5 yrs / $80M

 

I wouldn't want either of those, which is why I think we should trade Hart. Maybe we can get more return in the offseason but Doug should at least listen to see what's out there now.

[fondybrewfan]

Its not like Hart is 40 years old. He could easily have another 3-4 years of productivity at 1st. Sure he could drop off, but the that threat is there for everyone 30 or older. Hart has shown no evidence of a drop off; he is well on his way to posting another .800 OPS. You can't run a team scared of veterans and the chance they could fall off especially when you don't have a can't miss prospect to replace him.

 

I am fine extended him for 2-3 years beyond 2013 but obviously I am OK trading him if you get something good in return. I just don't tihnk Melvin should be going out of his way trying to trade a guy that has performed very well in the last 3 years and is still signed through next year.

[brains and braun]

But guys that OPS .800 at 1st are a dime a dozen. Why pay over 15 M/yr to a declining player for that?

[PrinceEatMeat]

There's no way Hart gets $15 mil/yr. That would be absolutely insane. I don't see any way Melvin pays that much for him. He may want to extend him, but not for that much. Ramirez got $12 mil/yr, so I think that's more in the ballpark. Still, maybe Melvin will just ride out this contract and then deal with it.

[monty57]

I just don't tihnk Melvin should be going out of his way trying to trade a guy that has performed very well in the last 3 years and is still signed through next year.

 

I don't see the Brewers being a playoff caliber team next year, which is the final year of Hart's contract. Therefore, having his bat in the 2013 lineup will not add as much value as it would if we were fighting for the playoffs. Add in that we have Gamel for 1B at league minimum next year, and Aoki in RF for around $1MM, and the marginal performance increase of Hart over Gamel or Aoki becomes far less than the marginal salary difference. However, his bat has a lot of value to a team in the playoff hunt who is in need of a 1B/RF for this year and/or next, so his trade value to the Brewers is probably a lot higher than the value of him remaining a Brewer.

 

As far as when to trade, the value we'd receive will drop off significantly if he's not traded now or this offseason. If traded prior to the start of next year, the receiving team will be able to offer him the one-year deal and get comp picks, so we should be able to get more than the value of a first rounder + comp pick if we traded him now or this offseason. If we wait until next year to trade him, then he has very little value, as all a team will recieve is a few months of an .800 OPS 1B/RF. I'd guess we'd get roughly what the Marlins gave up for Carlos Lee - an all-glove/no hit 3B and a guy who projects to be a relief pitcher.

 

Really, the biggest reason to keep him seems to be for emotional / sentimental value because we've followed him for so long, and that is something we need to get away from. Financially and long-term performance-wise I think we're better off trading him for a package of top prospects to build for a better future. Whether that means trading him now (if we sell) or trading him this offseason really makes no difference to me... I just think that if they can get some good, young players for him, they should trade him.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think the team will trade Hart because no matter what happens with Greinke, the team's leaders - Melvin and Mark A. - will look to 'retool' instead of rebuild.

 

I'm not saying that is bad or good, but I'm saying that is what I think they will do. Here's why:

 

The team will return all of it's main position players in 2013. They are 4th in the NL in runs scored. That's pretty good. There will likely be some tweaks - maybe something like swapping Schafer for Morgan - but the main players will return (Lucroy, Maldonado, Hart, Weeks, A-Ram, Braun, Gomez, Aoki). The challenge will be to find a SS and a better bench.

 

The pitching is really the issue. The club will likely lose Marcum, Greinke and Wolf. The latter is no big deal. The bullpen needs an overhaul. Of the guys there now, only Axford is set.

 

Is it doable to restructure your starting pitching and relief pitching in such as short time? Again, I think Melvin and Mark A. will say 'yes'.

 

For starting pitching, Estrada and Fiers will have the rest of the year to prove they belong in the rotation. We'll also have Narveson returning. Peralta, Mark Rogers and Thornburg are options as well (some more realistic than others).

 

The bullpen gets Axford, and then some young arms. Guys like Rogers and Peralta - if they don't make the rotation - can go here. Henderson.

 

And then they will spend some money to fill the holes in the rotation and bullpen (as well as bench depth). Morgan, K-Rod, Veras, Loe, Wolf, Marcum, Greinke, Gonzalez and Parra make around $50 million this year. Some money will go to raises - roughly $15 million for guys like Braun, Gallardo, A-Ram, Lucroy, etc. - but we should have a decent amount to add a starting pitcher or two and a couple of relievers. This can be either via free agency or trades (like how Pittsburgh added AJ Burnett).

 

I don't expect them to go after Cole Hamels - but there are middling starters that might fit the team's budget and circumstance. Then sign 2-3 good relievers in the 3-5 million range - Balfour, Mike Adams are a couple of examples. A bullpen with Axford, Mike Adams, Grant Balfour, Peralta, Rogers starts looking more interesting.

 

Also, we can't forget that if we give up 2012, we likely deal Greinke (and probably Marcum too, if he gets healthy). Guys like Wolf and K-Rod won't net anything exceptional in return, but Greinke and a healthy Marcum could land something of real quality. A shortstop would be great. A starting pitcher would help too.

 

Finally, you do need to find a SS somehow. Free agents are terrible.

 

In the end, it's a house of cards. A couple of injuries can ruin everything. But I think Doug and Mark A. have an attitude that will make them 'retool' as opposed to rebuild. That means keeping Cory for at least another season.

[paul253]

I just don't tihnk Melvin should be going out of his way trying to trade a guy that has performed very well in the last 3 years and is still signed through next year.

 

I agree with this, but I also don't think Melvin should go out of his way to hang onto Hart. In other words, he shouldn't be telling other GM's he isn't available and he should be listening to offers. The part I bolded is exactly why he should be listening to offers. Corey Hart, I don't believe, will make or break our 2013 season and I think with him looking for one final long term deal it'll take at least 3 years to get him to re-sign. If a team does think he is make or break for 2013 they may be willing to overpay. You don't trade Hart just to trade him. But you don't hang onto to him and/or extend him unless you believe he is a franchise player. At 32 years old (when his contract runs out) it's hard to envision him as a franchise player anymore.

[adambr2]

I just don't tihnk Melvin should be going out of his way trying to trade a guy that has performed very well in the last 3 years and is still signed through next year.

 

I agree with this, but I also don't think Melvin should go out of his way to hang onto Hart. In other words, he shouldn't be telling other GM's he isn't available and he should be listening to offers. The part I bolded is exactly why he should be listening to offers. Corey Hart, I don't believe, will make or break our 2013 season and I think with him looking for one final long term deal it'll take at least 3 years to get him to re-sign. If a team does think he is make or break for 2013 they may be willing to overpay. You don't trade Hart just to trade him. But you don't hang onto to him and/or extend him unless you believe he is a franchise player. At 32 years old (when his contract runs out) it's hard to envision him as a franchise player anymore.

 

This should be true of every player at any given time. Why limit your options? My car isn't for sale, but if you offer me double the blue book, I'm going to hand you the keys.

[torts]

I just don't tihnk Melvin should be going out of his way trying to trade a guy that has performed very well in the last 3 years and is still signed through next year.

 

I agree with this, but I also don't think Melvin should go out of his way to hang onto Hart. In other words, he shouldn't be telling other GM's he isn't available and he should be listening to offers. The part I bolded is exactly why he should be listening to offers. Corey Hart, I don't believe, will make or break our 2013 season and I think with him looking for one final long term deal it'll take at least 3 years to get him to re-sign. If a team does think he is make or break for 2013 they may be willing to overpay. You don't trade Hart just to trade him. But you don't hang onto to him and/or extend him unless you believe he is a franchise player. At 32 years old (when his contract runs out) it's hard to envision him as a franchise player anymore.

 

This should be true of every player at any given time. Why limit your options? My car isn't for sale, but if you offer me double the blue book, I'm going to hand you the keys.

 

yeah, but you can then just go use that money and put it towards a better, newer car, whereas, theres no actual guarantee that the brewers could get a better, newer player to replace someone like hart.

[trwi7]

yeah, but you can then just go use that money and put it towards a better, newer car, whereas, theres no actual guarantee that the brewers could get a better, newer player to replace someone like hart.

 

The point is Melvin could have an idea that Hart is worth fill in the blank to me on the trade market but I don't think a team will offer that or whatever his reasoning is. The problem is what if a team loses an outfielder or 1st baseman and doesn't have a replacement and will go above what Melvin thinks Hart is worth? If you go out and say this player isn't available, the GM may just pass on Hart without even asking because Melvin said he wasn't available.

 

If I was a GM, I would never say any player wasn't available. It makes no sense to do so. Yeah, chances are you're never going to get an offer for Braun that you would never accept but you never know.

[torts]

yeah, but you can then just go use that money and put it towards a better, newer car, whereas, theres no actual guarantee that the brewers could get a better, newer player to replace someone like hart.

 

The point is Melvin could have an idea that Hart is worth fill in the blank to me on the trade market but I don't think a team will offer that or whatever his reasoning is. The problem is what if a team loses an outfielder or 1st baseman and doesn't have a replacement and will go above what Melvin thinks Hart is worth? If you go out and say this player isn't available, the GM may just pass on Hart without even asking because Melvin said he wasn't available.

 

If I was a GM, I would never say any player wasn't available. It makes no sense to do so. Yeah, chances are you're never going to get an offer for Braun that you would never accept but you never know.

 

thats only half of the point, the other half is, does Melvin believe he has the chance to replace Hart in the offseason with the money available, or immediately from within the system. Its not just about taking an offer that far exceeds your wants for a player, its also what are the chances to replace Hart with as good/better of a player to bide until the pieces below in AAA/AA/A are ready?

[monty57]

I just don't tihnk Melvin should be going out of his way trying to trade a guy that has performed very well in the last 3 years and is still signed through next year.

 

I agree with this, but I also don't think Melvin should go out of his way to hang onto Hart. In other words, he shouldn't be telling other GM's he isn't available and he should be listening to offers. The part I bolded is exactly why he should be listening to offers. Corey Hart, I don't believe, will make or break our 2013 season and I think with him looking for one final long term deal it'll take at least 3 years to get him to re-sign. If a team does think he is make or break for 2013 they may be willing to overpay. You don't trade Hart just to trade him. But you don't hang onto to him and/or extend him unless you believe he is a franchise player. At 32 years old (when his contract runs out) it's hard to envision him as a franchise player anymore.

 

This should be true of every player at any given time. Why limit your options? My car isn't for sale, but if you offer me double the blue book, I'm going to hand you the keys.

 

yeah, but you can then just go use that money and put it towards a better, newer car, whereas, theres no actual guarantee that the brewers could get a better, newer player to replace someone like hart.

 

He wouldn't be trading Hart for money. "Double the blue book" would mean he's getting talent back that is worth twice what Hart is worth. Just a stupid, extreme example, but if the Angels said "we don't trust a rookie for a playoff run, so we'll trade you Trout for Hart," Hart had better not be deemed "untouchable."

 

GMs in playoff hunts are always looking for ways to improve, and you never know who will come knocking on the door with a great offer. Publicly stating that Hart is not going to be traded just tells other GMs not to knock on the Brewers' door.

[torts]

also, I think hart is a bad example of this because of the depth the brewers have at AAA in OF, and Gamel/Green in IF. if Weeks or Gonzalez (had he never been hurt) been the piece up for trade, i'd say it would be harder to justify taking a huge offer for them since the depth behind them in AAA/AA is pretty thin

[jmeks23]

Are people really still taking what DM says to heart? Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE is available in a trade right now, it just depends on what is being offered. He's not going to trade Braun or Gallardo for just anybody. But he'll listen. Just because someone reported or Doug Melvin publicly said so and so is not available does not mean ANYTHING! It's GM speak, and Melvin is a master at it.

 

Hart has value still, but I honestly think he has less value now than he did when ATL wanted him in 2010, so it would be almost pointless to trade him seeing as they weren't offering a great package then either (Mike Minor was rumored). He really does have more value on the Brewers than elsewhere right now. Now that could change by July 31st when teams get desperate.

 

I also wanted to address the draft pick compensation that people have been throwing around like it hadn't changed. I was under the impression that they had to be a top 10 player financially and you had to offer that much in arbitration to get the picks, or in other words only Greinke would grant us picks. I doubt Marcum fits into that build and Corey Hart wouldn't either. I haven't double checked the actual rules though if anyone knows better than I do.

[jerichoholicninja]

I also wanted to address the draft pick compensation that people have been throwing around like it hadn't changed. I was under the impression that they had to be a top 10 player financially and you had to offer that much in arbitration to get the picks, or in other words only Greinke would grant us picks. I doubt Marcum fits into that build and Corey Hart wouldn't either. I haven't double checked the actual rules though if anyone knows better than I do.

 

You can offer anyone a, I believe this is what it is called, qualifying offer which is a one year contract that is the average of the 125 or so highest paid players. If the player accepts he gets the contract. If he declines you get picks from the team that signs him. It's almost exactly the same as the NFL's Franchise Tag.

[monty57]

I also wanted to address the draft pick compensation that people have been throwing around like it hadn't changed. I was under the impression that they had to be a top 10 player financially and you had to offer that much in arbitration to get the picks, or in other words only Greinke would grant us picks.

 

That's not how I understand it. A team can offer a one-year deal to anyone they want as long as they were on their Opening Day roster. However, the deal is the same for everyone, and I think it'll be somewhere around $12-13MM next offseason. Obviously, teams will only offer the deal to players to whom they wouldn't mind paying $12-13MM.

 

Therefore, if you believe a team would offer Hart a one-year deal after next season, then his value is 1.5 years of his service + a first rounder + a sandwich pick. He is probably worth more to another team right now than Greinke is, because he has more service time and could bring back the picks.