Mr. Hart

[Mudville9]

With the Carlos Lee deal falling apart between the Dodgers and the Astros, you'd think Los Angeles would be interested in Hart since he's younger and puts up similar stats. What do you think we could pull from the Dodgers for him if we decide to finally sell? Could we get a decent bat or arm and maybe save some cash?

[Kelbysdaddy]

Rumor was Gould for Carlos and there was also talk of la starting the talks with zack Lee and Gould for lowrie. Maybe the crew could get something like Jerry sands and zack lee for hart.

[Hate those Rodents]

I'd do Gould and Lee for Hart plus a little extra. I'd hold onto Hart, or choose another team to deal with, if I only got back Lee and Sands.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, like I said in another thread, I'm surprised the Brewers aren't discussing it with the Dodgers (maybe they already are and we haven't heard about it).

[monty57]

1.5 years of Hart is pretty valueable, as in addition to receiving 1.5 years of an All-Star player, the receiving team would get comp picks after next season if he is traded prior to the start of the 2013 season. The Dodgers would certainly want him, but I think there are probably better trading partners.

 

I'd try to get the Dodgers to bite on Aramis Ramirez. They don't seem too worried about money, so his contract shouldn't discourage them, and their current 3B (Juan Uribe) is sporting an OPS around .530. I would think Ramirez could bring back a similar deal to Lowrie (Zach Lee & Gould), and it would rid us of a big contract over the next two seasons.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah, like I said in another thread, I'm surprised the Brewers aren't discussing it with the Dodgers (maybe they already are and we haven't heard about it).

 

The Dodgers want someone now, and Attanasio and Melvin aren't going to wave the white flag until the last week of July if at all.

[monty57]

Yeah, like I said in another thread, I'm surprised the Brewers aren't discussing it with the Dodgers (maybe they already are and we haven't heard about it).

 

The Dodgers want someone now, and Attanasio and Melvin aren't going to wave the white flag until the last week of July if at all.

 

You may be right, but I really hope you're wrong. What Melvin/Attanasio do over the next few weeks can set ourselves up for a good future or can cause us to suffer for the next decade.

[RockCoCougars]

Yeah, like I said in another thread, I'm surprised the Brewers aren't discussing it with the Dodgers (maybe they already are and we haven't heard about it).

 

The Dodgers want someone now, and Attanasio and Melvin aren't going to wave the white flag until the last week of July if at all.

 

You may be right, but I really hope you're wrong. What Melvin/Attanasio do over the next few weeks can set ourselves up for a good future or can cause us to suffer for the next decade.

 

How so? Trading proven guys for prospects is a crap shoot at best, not to mention that reportedly teams aren't exactly dangling their best pieces out there- even for Greinke. So best case, you are adding borderline prospects to a barren farm system. Then you trade guys who are under a reasonable contract for next season like Hart? How exactly do you replace that production in the near term, by signing guys in free agency and likely overpaying to get them to come here?

 

This whole fire sale idea doesn't make much sense to me. Most of the names thrown around (including Marcum due to injury) have little to no value right now. It's not like the farm is going to be replenished by moving these guys. As for Greinke, if they lose him, put me on record as saying that the near future will be anything but bright. I'd rather play out most of July, just in case.

[TheCrew07]

This is going to be long, please bear with me.

 

This whole fire sale idea doesn't make much sense to me. Most of the names thrown around (including Marcum due to injury) have little to no value right now. It's not like the farm is going to be replenished by moving these guys.

This isn't fire sale, I'm not sure why you keep spinning it as such. The idea here is to try to get back better value than you would get out of draft picks. It's sound business considering the Brewer's future needs, they don't have the money to resign all these guys even if they wanted to so the question becomes to how to get the most value possible out of each guy. Why would the Brewers even offer someone like K-Rod a qualifying arbitration contract to hopefully get draft picks when no one is going to pay him that much money and he'd just accept again? Instead why not flip him and see if you can some kind of return on your investment? How did riding out Sheets into FA work out? What kind of draft picks did we get for Sabathia?

 

Hart is being tossed around because he's the most valuable trading chip the Brewers have outside of Braun and Gallardo considering he's not a rental. If you don't have enough pitching to compete why does it matter if you have Hart in RF or 1B for 1 more season?

 

Ramirez is being tossed around by Monty because that last year + buyout carries significant risk of being an albatross. We aren't talking about Ramirez in 2012, we're talking about him in 2014 when he's 36 years old with a $16 million contract and a $4 million buyout.

 

As for Greinke, if they lose him, put me on record as saying that the near future will be anything but bright. I'd rather play out most of July, just in case.

Just in case what exactly? The entire central division collapses and the Brewers make the playoffs? To what end? Currently Milwaukee would have to jump 3 teams to win the division and 6 teams to get a Wild Card. Is that a realistic target?

 

Once again I'm personally not content just getting to the playoffs, the only thing I care about is being able to compete for a World Series. Yes you can't reach the World Series without getting into the playoffs, but there's also the question of being able to adequately compete in the playoffs. We don't have starting pitching that regularly will get you deep into a game nor do we have a bullpen that will lock down the game. Of the teams below .500 we do have the best run differential at -11 but as team we have the 13th best ERA in the NL even though we've scored the 6th most runs in the NL. To put this a different way, the Brewers have allowed the 5th most runs in the NL at 355, the next closest tean we're chasing in the division is STL at 328, CIN and PIT are the 2nd and 4th best teams in the NL at 298 and 291 respectively.

 

I've always felt the post season was about impact pitching and defense, because just about every team that gets there is going to be able to score runs. I think we have a pretty decent defensive club outside of 3B, but our pitching doesn't stack up with any of the top teams in the NL or AL. If Yo and Greinke don't pitch a complete game then what happens? What are the odds that everyone in the pen gets hot at the same time at the end of the season?

 

Furthermore, once we decide that we only have 1 solution to the problem, we eliminate every other alternative and back ourselves into a corner, which is what Melvin seems to do, we always seem to end up with limited options. Losing Greinke doesn't have to be the death blow to 2013 and 2014 that is being predicted, there are many different ways the Brewers could acquire enough impact pitching and/or talent to remain competitive. Making Greinke the focal point is a self fulfilling prophecy because then you don't try to do anything else and if you can't resign him then you're left with nothing but middling FAs because you haven't made any other moves. We have more options than that but I found the following quote from Shortstop key for Brewers if Greinke’s dealt pretty infuriating:

The Brewers probably will take one more run at Greinke, who is eligible for free agency after the season, before the July 31 trade deadline. But if the sides remain far apart and the team does not get its act together, general manager Doug Melvin will begin entertaining offers for Greinke, who has been scouted heavily by clubs in need of pitching. To this point, suitors have been told "not yet."

Not yet!?!?! Queue the, "that's just GM speak" responses... I know. However, what has Melvin said on the air during the telecasts or in print that leads anyone to believe he's capable of being a good seller at the deadline? His one deadline deal as a seller in the past wasn't exactly awe inspiring (Carlos Lee). Last time I saw him in the booth he was talking about just needing a hot streak of "8 or 9 out of 10 games" to get back in the race, TH obviously took the "not yet" directly from someone in the front office for his story. The problem here is timing, every deal that gets made reduces Melvin's options and every day that passes makes the players with expiring contracts less valuable.

[monty57]

Trading proven guys for prospects is a crap shoot at best

 

1) "Proven guys" are often a crap shoot. Just look at Axford, K-Rod, Wolf, Weeks, etc.

 

2) The closer prospects get to the majors, the less the crap shoot. I think holding players to free agency and losing them for draft picks is much riskier than trading them for guys who are already tearing up AA or AAA, and maybe even have some MLB experience. I highly doubt that Melvin will trade for a bunch of high-upside A-ball players. It's far more likely that he will target guys who can either immediately step into the Brewer lineup or who will be in the majors by next season. There's risk in any move, but I think the riskiest thing we can do right now is "stand pat" and not trade anyone.

 

not to mention that reportedly teams aren't exactly dangling their best pieces out there

 

Where are you getting this? The Dodgers just offered up their best prospect & another high upside guy for Lowrie. The Phillies think they'll get four or five prospects for Hamels, and I'd guess they don't mean four or five bums.

 

So best case, you are adding borderline prospects to a barren farm system.

 

I'd say best case is that you get a bunch of future All-Stars for some rentals. Expected case is that you would get some guys who can fill in vital roles for league minimum, some of whom will not play to their potential, but some of whom will. Worst case is what you're describing... none of the guys we trade for pan out and basically we're in the same shape we'd be in if we just held on and didn't trade anyone.

 

Therefore, trading some of our chips has a chance to make us better in the future, while not trading them means we lose them to free agency and have no talent ("barren farm system") to fill in around them, so we are forced to spend any available cash on "B" or "C" caliber free agents at $5-10MM each. All this because we have a very, very limited chance of getting one more playoff appearance before we collapse.

 

Then you trade guys who are under a reasonable contract for next season like Hart? How exactly do you replace that production in the near term, by signing guys in free agency and likely overpaying to get them to come here?

 

No, you replace their production by trading them for talented young players like those being mentioned who will be ready for the majors by next season. These players will play for around $450k, giving us the financial flexibility to do all kinds of things... maybe even make a fair market offer to Greinke.

 

We should only have to overpay guys in free agency to "fill in holes" if we don't trade some of our "chips" this season. That is the situation in which we wouldn't have MLB ready options.

 

This whole fire sale idea doesn't make much sense to me.

 

"Fire sale" denotes trading everyone for nothing simply to save salary. That doesn't make sense to me either. However, trading good players who are going to leave for nothing to a team in the playoff hunt for some top young prospects who will have 6 year of team control at a reasonable price makes tons of sense to me.

 

Most of the names thrown around (including Marcum due to injury) have little to no value right now. It's not like the farm is going to be replenished by moving these guys.

 

Depends on which poster is "throwing around names." Greinke, a healthy Marcum, and Hart should each bring back top prospects who could turn a slow, arduous rebuild into a quick rebuild. Obviously, we'll need to see if/when Marcum comes back healthy to see if we'll be able to trade him.

 

Meanwhile, guys like K-Rod and Wolf probably wouldn't bring a lot back, but possibly could bring a guy like Pastronicky who is blocked in the Braves organization but is much better than anything we have or maybe just a young relief pitcher who could keep us from having to spend several million on a veteran FA relief pitcher next year. Don't make a trade if it doesn't help you in some way.

 

As for Greinke, if they lose him, put me on record as saying that the near future will be anything but bright. I'd rather play out most of July, just in case.

 

Depends on what you get back. If we could get some qualtiy MLB-ready players from trading Grienke/Marcum/Hart/K-Rod/Wolf/etc, then we could turn things around and at least have some promise of being good in the near future. As to timing, if trading players now brings back a much better return than we'll get if we wait 3-4 weeks, then I would trade them immediately.

[paul253]

The Dodgers want someone now, and Attanasio and Melvin aren't going to wave the white flag until the last week of July if at all.

This is what frustrates me more than anything about Melvin, his unwillingness to call it a season. Milwaukee's baseball fans will not only understand but most are actually requesting it. His over reliance on expensive veterans is starting to bother me more and more. If the Dodgers are willing to overpay for Corey Hart then absolutely you trade him. But I have a feeling Melvin won't even make Hart available.

[Dollarbill13]

If we can get Zach Lee in a deal for Hart, I'd be all over it. If not, I probably would pass.

[RockCoCougars]

I just want to respond to the rebuttals to my post from this morning, but I'm not going to quote much.....

 

First of all, I have no problems trading guys like K-Rod, Marcum, etc., etc. IF the decision to 'sell' is made. I just don't think that you will get much for them. I'm sure that I made it clear that I want Greinke kept, and I think that it's foolish to trade him unless you are blown away with something. I wouldn't hold back on moving them but I certainly wouldn't expect to replenish Nashville with the guys that you get back. It follows that if guys like this are moved, yes, part of the motivation will be to perhaps add a few fringe prospects, but also to trim salary, so I'd say that it is a firesale.

 

Bottom line, if we are talking about trading a guy like for talent that will be 'ready soon' and you allow teams to hold back their best players, you are basically trading quality for quantity. Sounds like a Dean Taylor special to me. You may be happy taking an organization's scraps because BA rated them #6 in the organization or something, but that doesn't do it for me (guys like Pastornicky, etc.). I want the elite prospects or I'm not trading a Greinke. I'll trade the other guys to take a flyer on someone, but mostly to try young talent out and as salary relief if you have no plans on keeping them or offering arby.

 

For example, I see people salivating after these guys that the Dodgers have, and they do nothing for me. The Gould kid has been knocked around in A ball and Lee averages around 5 innings a start. What am I missing here? These guys are long shots to be difference makers, and even if one/both pan out, it will be years. I don't see why you would trade Hart for that. Where are you going to get Hart's production for $10 million next year.

 

Why would the Brewers even offer someone like K-Rod a qualifying arbitration contract to hopefully get draft picks when no one is going to pay him that much money and he'd just accept again? Instead why not flip him and see if you can some kind of return on your investment?

 

I don't want anyone offered arby except Greinke. As for K-Rod he has little value outside of as a salary dump. What did he bring last season when he was pitching well? Danny Herrera. Unless I'm missing something and his value has increased, I see little return for him. Same with most of the other guys always tossed around here.

 

How did riding out Sheets into FA work out? What kind of draft picks did we get for Sabathia?

 

They made the playoffs for the first time in 25 years. That works for me.

 

I'd say best case is that you get a bunch of future All-Stars for some rentals. Expected case is that you would get some guys who can fill in vital roles for league minimum, some of whom will not play to their potential, but some of whom will.

 

Best case would be something that I'd explore, but we keep hearing more about guys who won't be available. It's more likely that we are looking at expected case and if so, I don't see how the future is bright in the near/medium term.

Once again I'm personally not content just getting to the playoffs, the only thing I care about is being able to compete for a World Series.

 

Then the best way to rebuild would be to trade for young prospects from the low minors, and put everybody on the market, including Braun and Gallardo. After all they are the most valuable commodities. Then you will need to be bad for a while to get some high picks, then you need to nail the picks. I'd rather take this Florida/Tampa Bay rebuild, than do a Dean Taylor rebuild...... trade everyone before they get expensive for scraps or low ceiling AAA/AAAA talent and waste a decent chunk of payroll signing and overpaying 'guys' on the free agent market to fill holes. I'd rather to be awful for a while then to be stuck in 1990's era 70-some win purgatory.

 

That said, I'd prefer to give it a run at least for part of July before I start moving anybody, I also prefer the team pull out all the stops to retain Greinke over the next few weeks... hence the 'just in case', 7 games back is not insurmountable by any means, and even if this season is lost, any team built around Greinke/Gallardo and Braun at least has a chance.

[Dollarbill13]

The only thing I"ll respond to from that post was the Zach Lee thing about him only averaging 5 IP per start. The guy is only 20 years old. Most teams have their lower minors pitchers on strict pitch counts. Jungmann is 2 years older and averages less than 6 IP per start. Lee is in AA right now so he should be ready for the bigs by 2014. Losing Hart would certainly hurt our chances for next year but it would also free up $10M to go after another guy. I'm not necessarily looking to trade Hart, but if there is a guy with top of the rotation potential available for him, I'd jump on it.

[paul253]

What did he bring last season when he was pitching well? Danny Herrera.

 

That was a very, very unique situation. The Mets were in a dire financial mess and KRod had a guarantee in his contract that he would have reached unless he was basically removed from the closer's role. The Mets were desperate to get rid of him. The salary relief was just as important to them as the players they got in return.

[TheCrew07]

Bottom line, if we are talking about trading a guy like for talent that will be 'ready soon' and you allow teams to hold back their best players, you are basically trading quality for quantity. Sounds like a Dean Taylor special to me. You may be happy taking an organization's scraps because BA rated them #6 in the organization or something, but that doesn't do it for me (guys like Pastornicky, etc.). I want the elite prospects or I'm not trading a Greinke. I'll trade the other guys to take a flyer on someone, but mostly to try young talent out and as salary relief if you have no plans on keeping them or offering arby

 

Of course the value of the return depends entirely on the prospects received and I've never ever lobbied for a quantity over quality deal.

 

Where a prospect is ranked within the organization is largely irrelevant, the ultimate result comes down to talent. Neftali Feliz wasn't ranked when the Braves traded him to Texas, was the #18 after 2006 for Texas, and was their #1 prospect by the end of 2008. Typically though the players with the most talent performing at the higher levels are going to be ranked rather highly so if you want players who can contribute next year or the year after you're looking at guys in AA for the most part.

 

Furthermore there is major difference in talent at any given rank between the various organizations. Coming into 2012 the Angels #1 Mike Trout had (and still has) a much higher ceiling as a player than our #1 Wily Peralta. So to use your example there is a wide gulf between the Brewers #6 prospect coming into 2012 who was Logan Schafer (best case an above average CF) and KC's #6 John Lamb (a LHP who tops out at 95 and profiles as #2 best case), or Texas #6 Neil Ramirez (RHP who reaches 96 and profiles as #2 best case). I realize of course that Lamb is still recovering from TJ and hasn't pitched in 2012 and Ramirez stunk in AAA this season but I'm highlighting the disparity in talent between various organizations at a given spot.

 

Since it's impossible to evaluate the merits of any trade without knowing who is available why are you assuming the prospects are the high floor low ceiling type that I personally despise?

 

I'm sure that I made it clear that I want Greinke kept, and I think that it's foolish to trade him unless you are blown away with something. I wouldn't hold back on moving them but I certainly wouldn't expect to replenish Nashville with the guys that you get back. It follows that if guys like this are moved, yes, part of the motivation will be to perhaps add a few fringe prospects, but also to trim salary, so I'd say that it is a firesale.

 

I completely agree about a certain SS from Atlanta, but why are you zeroing in on him? Regardless, what you describe is not a fire sale, we are not looking to dump everyone and start over from scratch. Again you use the assumption of fringe prospects, I can certainly see that for K-Rod and/or Ramirez, but again what exactly do we have to lose dumping those guys? We have a $20 million commitment to an aging 3B for 2014 and neither player should have been signed to their contracts, take what you can get and move on.

 

However Greinke, Marcum, and Hart could bring back a legitimate return in prospects. It all depends on the number teams of bidding and the length of the return. If you want an organization's best prospect for 3 months of Greinke I think you've set the bar way too high since that team no longer gets draft pick compensation as part of the deal, unless the team was positive they could also extend Greinke prior to the end of the season.

 

As soon as you start putting finite conditions on a scenario, you limit your options. The longer Melvin waits, the more he limits his options. As I said if Greinke is viewed as the only solution and it doesn't work out with him, then the idea that we need Greinke compete becomes a self fulfilling prophecy... no other moves are made because we're "hoping" to turn around 2012 and resign Greinke, then we get outbid for his services... then of course we tank because we've done absolutely nothing to address the pitching situation and we're right back to 2009 except this time we're hoping young pitchers ascend incredibly quickly and make up the difference. The 3 best pitchers that look to be available are Greinke, Hamels, and Garza, if we wait until both Hamels and Garza are dumped what kind of a return can we expect with 2 buyers already removed from the market?

 

We have more options than Greinke available to us today, and the pitching situation in 2013 and beyond is of much greater importance than if Hart stays or goes, or any other positional issue including SS. I firmly believe that whatever else happens the team needs to be built from the rotation up. 1 or 2 more young impact pitchers and I'd feel pretty good about next season, and really good about 2014.

 

I don't want to get into an in-depth breakdown of our divisional opponents for 2013 and their farm systems, I do enough of that each day in the link report. I will say that everyone has some very exciting players coming in the near future, the only team that really doesn't have impact pitching on the verge is the Cubs, but they will also have the money to sign impact pitching in free agency if they choose. Very quickly... The Cubs just moved Rizzo up and they still have Jackson and Vitters progressing in AAA, that's a core of Castro, Rizzo, Jackson, and Vitters plus whatever they might get for Garza. 2 FA pitchers and suddenly they are very dangerous team, maybe not in 2013 as the players grow into their roles, but certainly in 2014. The Pirates have Cole, Tallion, and Marte not to mention Appel who they may or may not sign. The Reds already have a potent line-up and 2 very good pitchers in AA (Corcino and Cingrani) plus Hamilton who will get bumped to AA before the end of the year. The Cards have Miller, Martinez, Taveras, and Wong on the way. Objectively I just can't put Peralta and Thornburg combined into that same level as the top 2 pitchers from our divisional rivals, and we have no impact hitting close to Milwaukee. Simply put we don't have don't have the same level of prospects as any of the teams in our division today, we're arguably deeper, but we don't have better talent at the top.

 

If we can't sustain our MLB roster and don't have the prospects to cycle into MLB, how do we maintain our success? Outside of Braun our position players are no longer peaking, they are just getting older and more expensive by the year, plus we only have 1 impact pitcher signed for next year's rotation. I'm not sure how a legitimate argument can be made that Greinke or bust is the best or only course of action the Brewers should take. The move would certainly plug a rotation hole but the signing wouldn't address any of the other issues facing the team long-term, and would only make the payroll situation more dire as a greater percentage of payroll gets tied into fewer players.

 

I'm not convinced the Brewers can win a bidding war for Greinke even if they wanted to, including making Cain type offer to him. Larger markets can just continually tack on years which is more guaranteed money until the Brewers fall out of the bidding.

[Dollarbill13]

Okay, I know this doesn't have to do with Hart but TheCrew, you mentioned that Ramirez shouldn't have been signed to his contract. I'll just say that I completely disagree as free agent value per win is typically around $5M. We guaranteed him $36M for three years. He should easily accumulate the 7 wins over these three seasons to make the contract more than worth-while. The only problem is that his production likely won't match the amounts that he's paid each year. We'll "profit" on the signing this year but may lose a bit in year 3. That's the nature of most free agent contracts and it isn't necessarily a bad thing. I would venture to say that if Ramirez would be a free agent after this year, he'd get much more than 2 for 20.

[jerichoholicninja]

Let's take a look at a few "sell" trades of non really, really good (totally subjective) players the Brewers have made.

 

Mark Loretta for Wayne Franklin and Keith Ginter

Tyler Houston for Ben Diggins and Shance Nance

David Weathers for Ruben Quevedo and Pete Zoccolillo

Alex Ochoa for Jorge Fabregas and 2 minor leaguers

Curtis Leskanic for Alejando Machado and Wes Obermueller

 

To me this is what we are looking at for a return for K-Rod, Wolf, Veras, or Morgan. I'm not saying hold on to these guys but don't get excited about what's coming back.

 

I think Hart might actually bring back a better return than Greinke. You get Corey for a year and a half and the possibility of draft picks.

[Dollarbill13]

And I think we're in agreement that we need to improve our farm system. However, I'm not of the opinion that we should take solid major leaguers and "take what we can get" for them. If you can get a Zach Lee or a Teheran for someone who isn't signed long term, then great. But don't trade them for a lottery ticket.

[RockCoCougars]

Good post, Crew. In particular, I think that there is a ton of truth to this.

 

Typically though the players with the most talent performing at the higher levels are going to be ranked rather highly so if you want players who can contribute next year or the year after you're looking at guys in AA for the most part.

 

I am not convinced that this team will be able to compete losing Greinke and filling his and the other holes with rookies and/or free agents. IF the Brewers choose to rebuild, I would rather them do a full bore tear down than a Bando/Taylor patch job. Even if you develop talent, what happens 3-4 years down the road with a guy like Gallardo? Either he underperforms who pitches well and prices himself out of the market. Bottom line, if this team is not able to keep their own free agents on the market may as well conduct a Marlin type rebuild and trade everything that you can to get assets in the low minors. Throw a few top 5 picks into the mix and you have a young core to build around in four years or so.

 

At any rate, though it seems hyperbolic to say that a franchise's near term future rests on one player, I really think that is kind of the case with Greinke, at least as close as it possibly can be. Not just in the sense of losing his arm from your starting staff, but also from the cause/effect decisions that will come as an attempt to compensate for the loss.

[DHonks]

supporting RockCoCougars....I don't think we'll get better value back for out players than draft picks.

option a:

1/2 season of Marcum/Greinke/both, 2 draft picks each, a chance that we compete in Sept, a decent chance of resigning one

 

option b: trading for big leaguers or minor leaguers.

 

I just don't see us beating the 1/2 season AND 2 first rounders via trade

[monty57]

I would venture to say that if Ramirez would be a free agent after this year, he'd get much more than 2 for 20.

 

He's actually owed $30MM for the next two seasons, including his buyout. Simply trading him may be enough for us to tender a market offer to Greinke, and the mere fact we signed him could be the reason we lose Greinke. If we could take advantage of the Dodgers' desparation and get them to send us talented prospects for Ramirez, I would be all over it.

 

I think Hart might actually bring back a better return than Greinke. You get Corey for a year and a half and the possibility of draft picks.

 

I agree, which is why we need to decide on Hart prior to the start of next season. Right now, Hart could bring us back a package of top prospects, but this time next year Hart's trade value will be pretty small. Personally, I'd trade him and let Aoki man RF next year with Gamel at 1B with the prospect(s) we get in trade filling in other holes for league minimum.

 

I am not convinced that this team will be able to compete losing Greinke and filling his and the other holes with rookies and/or free agents.

 

I believe that they will be able to compete sooner by "selling" than they will by taking the draft picks. Either way, next year will probably be down, but selling could make us competitive in 2014, while letting everyone play to free agency could mean we won't be competitive for a long time. To me, it hinges on our having a number of big guaranteed contracts paired with a lack of pre-arby talent playing for league minimum. I can't figure out how we could afford Greinke when we have to dole out millions of dollars to fill every hole in the lineup (shortstop, the bullpen, the starting rotation). Not having good pre-arby guys means that we get stuck with an expensive team that's not all the good, much like this year where we don't have the "role players" to get us over the top. When we can fill these positions for around $450k each, then we have a lot more flexibility to actually get better.

 

That's why I like the thought of getting someone like Pastronicky for K-Rod or Wolf. He's not a star player, but he could fill a gaping hole for league minimum and we could potentially pick him up for nothing. Since we'd get him for nothing, we could always dump him for nothing if a better option arises. It's also why I'm not opposed to trading some of our "lesser trading chips" for middle relievers or guys who may end up being role players on the bench. We need these type of guys, so if we can get them for players we'd lose anyway, and pay them league minimum then we should do it. We'd gain some needed players and, more importantly we'd gain financial flexibility.

 

Meanwhile, guys like Greinke, a healthy Marcum and Hart ought to be able to each bring back at least one player who could actually be good and would also play for league minimum. The most logical way for us to be able to re-sign Greinke (if that's the crux on which our future hinges) would be to get a good number of talented players surrounding him playing for league minimum. Selling would allow us to do that.

 

Even if you develop talent, what happens 3-4 years down the road with a guy like Gallardo?

 

Hopefully we'll have a group of young, talented pitchers forcing their way onto the MLB roster. If that's the case, then we can trade Gallardo to a team in need of pitching and bring back a boatload of young talent. These guys will then be able to fill in at league minimum allowing us to pay whatever expensive players we will then have on our MLB roster. We will always have a need for talented young players playing key roles for league minimum.

 

This could also be how we could "afford" to offer a long-term deal to Greinke. Maybe it's important to have him in the rotation for the next couple of years, but that doesn't mean that this would always be the case. In a few seasons, we may have a lot of talented pitchers, which would afford us the luxury of trading a 31-year-old Greinke with a couple of years on his contract... how much would someone pay for that?

[ninja33]

I'm not very high on pastornicky (and I've expressed that in other threads, probably the Greinke one), but the braves aren't going to trade him for wolf or krod. He's not a great prospect, but he still has value and a future as a good utility IF for them. They're not going to trade a 22 year old with potential (even of its league average potential) for wolf or krod.

[fondybrewfan]

Hart has a ton of trade value; if he was offered on the trade market he would no doubt be one of the best bats available. 25-30 HR guys don't grow on trees. You aren't going to get a Top 30 Prospect for him most likely; but you should definitely shoot for a Top 75 or so.

[narwhalattack]

According to Buster Olney, if the Brewers decide to sell, Hart will not be available.