in honor of adambr2....my trade candidates

[DHonks]

I don't favor giving up on the season, but I'm at the point where I'm willing to make some changes. My targets are positional prospects and relievers, since we have plenty of starting prospects, and here is what I'd try to move:

 

1) K-Rod--let's get something for 2013 for him

2) Gomez and Morgan-- Gomez is having a Betancourt-like season, only he can actually play defense. Morgan has been very good since April. Yet they combine for about $5 million and both will likely be traded or non-tendered in the off-season

3) Kottaras-- he's expendable not because of his production, but because of Maldonado's emergence

4) Wolf-- He's been fine this year, but if we move him in about two weeks we should be able to time it for when Marcum is coming back.

 

Without knowing what we could get back, I'd hope it's a couple of decent relievers, and hopefully a decent SS prospect.

 

I think we don't need to rebuild, but rather let's focus on our key players and trying to retain some pitchers, while adding cheaper, younger, and decent players. We can compete next year if we can retain 1 starter. The big dilemma will be Hart or Gamel at 1b. It would be nice to move Hart's salary next year if we have the chance to keep a pitcher. But he plays very good defense at 1b and is adequate offensively.

 

I'd also like to promote Rogers to the bullpen...he can always be moved to the rotation next year if needed. His numbers compare somewhat with Wainwright's last season in AAA...and we know Wainwright wasn't known for control until he used his year in the bullpen to learn how to attack hitters. I'd consider Wooten for the big league short relief job, and I'd replace Dillard with McClung (I always didn't like McClung, but I at least think he can jump into a blowout without giving up runs seemingly EVERY time). McClendon should also be on this team. Basically, we need more 7th/8th inning guys, and I have no faith that Veras, Dillard, or Parra can get people out when we're ahead or close

[brewmann04]

I would add Henderson to the mix . Just not sure what Krod is going to bring at this point. Wolf last start hurts big time but a lefty is worth something add kottras to that deal.

[paul253]

KRod has been pretty good the last two months. His awful start still make his numbers look rather pedestrian. If he can put together a good July I'd be willing to guess you could get something decent for him, especially if you don't demand pitching back.

[sveumrules]

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here but I just fail to see how we get anything useful for any of these guys.

 

We gave up next to nothing for KRod and he is a year older and worse. Same story with Nyjer. Wolf is a 4/5 starter for any team that is hoping to make the postseason. Kottaras and Gomez are useful role players at best. I just don't see any way that a contending team values any of these players enough to give up anyone with even a modicum of upside.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, I don't see anyone here bringing back anything above maybe a C prospect (possibly K-Rod). If they want good returns, it needs to be Greinke, Marcum, Hart, Axford, etc. Out of those, I'm sure Melvin would only consider Greinke and Marcum.

[trwi7]

I laughed when I read Wolf has been fine this year.

[DHonks]

I never suggested we could get lots of value for these guys. I was just saying that I'm at the point with some players where I could see some lateral moves being good as they'll cut our costs and at least give us a chance. Remember, Carlos Villanueva was worse than a C-level prospect when we got him. Sometimes dumping Wayne Franklin and Leo Estrella can actually yield a result.

[adambr2]

4) Wolf-- He's been fine this year,

 

(Diet Coke spit take)

 

An ERA around 4.25 from Wolf would be fine. One near 6 in July is most certainly not.

 

Also, I love how you were quite critical of me when I simply inquired as to whether or not Kottaras had any legitimate trade value, and now you're flat out suggesting that we trade him.

[DHonks]

given the success of Estrada/Fiers, he's effectively been our 5th starter. Wolf will probably have a good second half and finish with an ERA in the 4.40-4.80 range. That's exactly what we pay him for.

[adambr2]

given the success of Estrada/Fiers, he's effectively been our 5th starter. Wolf will probably have a good second half and finish with an ERA in the 4.40-4.80 range. That's exactly what we pay him for.

 

#1 - If we're paying Wolf $10M a year for a 4.40 - 4.80 ERA, we really need to reconsider our investments.

 

#2 - In that case, your definition of "fine" is a very optimistic assumption of Wolf carrying a 3.39 ERA the rest of the season, which is exactly what he will need to do to put together a 4.60 ERA, the midpoint of your projection for him.

[trwi7]

Wolf will probably have a good second half and finish with an ERA in the 4.40-4.80 range. That's exactly what we pay him for.

 

This seems more like wishful thinking than anything based in reality. And if that's what we're paying him, it was an awful deal.

[endaround]

I think people are severely overestimating what $10m buys for a player these days. $10m is an average starter. Now Wolf hasn't been good but this mostly pertains to people think paying $10m to Weeks makes him super highly paid or that paying $10m for Hart isn't a great bargain.

[Roderick]

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here but I just fail to see how we get anything useful for any of these guys.

 

We gave up next to nothing for KRod and he is a year older and worse. Same story with Nyjer. Wolf is a 4/5 starter for any team that is hoping to make the postseason. Kottaras and Gomez are useful role players at best. I just don't see any way that a contending team values any of these players enough to give up anyone with even a modicum of upside.

KRod was cheap because he could only be traded to a team that had a closer or he would have made his saves total on his contract and have his huge option kick in.

 

I'm not saying we would get much for him either this year, but how we acquired or our cost for a player doesn't matter one bit now. What matters now is that player's current value and the needs of teams that may be buyers.

[Eye Black]

I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here but I just fail to see how we get anything useful for any of these guys.

 

We gave up next to nothing for KRod and he is a year older and worse. Same story with Nyjer. Wolf is a 4/5 starter for any team that is hoping to make the postseason. Kottaras and Gomez are useful role players at best. I just don't see any way that a contending team values any of these players enough to give up anyone with even a modicum of upside.

KRod was cheap because he could only be traded to a team that had a closer or he would have made his saves total on his contract and have his huge option kick in.

 

I'm not saying we would get much for him either this year, but how we acquired or our cost for a player doesn't matter one bit now. What matters now is that player's current value and the needs of teams that may be buyers.

 

K-Rod's trade value per MLB Trade Rumors: Mets Interested

[PrinceEatMeat]

It would be pretty funny to trade K-Rod back to the Mets, and get more for him than what we gave up. So essentially it would boil down to them giving us prospects to take K-Rod for a year, or basically getting him for nothing.

[adambr2]

I think people are severely overestimating what $10m buys for a player these days. $10m is an average starter. Now Wolf hasn't been good but this mostly pertains to people think paying $10m to Weeks makes him super highly paid or that paying $10m for Hart isn't a great bargain.

 

I hear this a lot, but the problem with this line of thinking IMO is that it takes nothing into consideration other than FA value. If you invest in your farm system, perhaps international prospects like we did with Aoki, get young 0 to 6 players in trade, and extend your own players early in exchange for team-friendly rates, your $10M can stretch a lot farther.

 

Lucroy is far cheaper than $10M a year for a long time, and Braun isn't going to be making more than $10M a year until 2015. Gallardo would be worth probably $15M a year or so on the open market, but he's only owed $11.25M in his last contract year with us. Marcum is worth pretty considerably more than Wolf and made quite a bit less than $10M in his last arby year.

 

That's the basic problem with the FA system in baseball and why teams with limited payrolls are IMO pretty much screwed long-term if they don't have a strong internal system.

 

And if you're going to dabble in the free agent system, it makes a lot more sense to me to invest $15M in a #1/#2 type starter than $10M in a #4 starter and $5M in a fringe starting infielder.

 

Even if Wolf isn't "overpaid" relative to his FA value (his FA value when he started with us -- he isn't getting $10M a year again after this year), it doesn't mean that he's a good buy.

[RockCoCougars]

I think people are severely overestimating what $10m buys for a player these days. $10m is an average starter. Now Wolf hasn't been good but this mostly pertains to people think paying $10m to Weeks makes him super highly paid or that paying $10m for Hart isn't a great bargain.

 

This is why people severely underrate Hart. Where would you get this type of production year after year for his salary. Just saw a post on another thread suggesting that Hart could fetch a 'Top 75' prospect. I think that it's a huge stretch to think that some guy that a magazine ranked in the top 75 minor league players would be able to replace that production. So what do you do, go to the free agent market and overpay someone else to provide it?

 

As for Wolf, he's had bad stretches every season that he's been here. I'm hoping that's the case now, but he looks cooked to me- along with his trade value at this point. He's proven me wrong and earned his money, but I wouldn't be on board for signing like pitchers to similar contracts anymore down the road. I'd rather pony up for Greinke and pair him with a rookie than sign another Suppan/Wolf combo for the same price and listen to everyone say that the Brewers paid the 'going rate' for middling 'innings eaters' on the free agent market (or the "He was the #2/#3 whatever starter available"- that one bugs the heck out of me.)