Gamel's future...

[HiAndTight]

monty57,

 

The Brewers weren't all that sold on Gamel going into this season. He got the job basically by default. If he performed reasonably well, then he'd stay there. If not they were ready to move Hart, injury or no injury and they would not have waited an entire season. They also kept Ishikawa as insurance in case of failure. If they were sold on Gamel, neither move would have been made.

 

 

Please support that statement on how the Brewers "felt," about a particular player, because they sure as hell sounded pretty sold on him.

 

That they brought in a player who was signed to a minor league contract and he made the team doesn't really say a whole heckuva lot.

 

And how long WOULD they have waited? Why don't you tell us? Because that was one thing that RR stressed. How patient they were going to be with Gamel. He's 26, he's been blocked by our 4 best players(or 4 of 5) the last couple years while putting up huge numbers in the minors.

 

Those are FACTS. Telling us their feelings or what they might have done with Gamel is just pure conjecture. Which is fine, but it's presented as fact.

 

 

What's also changed is Gamel is missing nearly an entire season. He's never hit over an extended period in the major leagues so your comment he "should be able to hit" is much less certain than you suggest. Change the word "should" to "could" and there is a huge difference.

 

Guess who also hasn't hit over an extended period of time in the major leagues? Me! Because I haven't PLAYED in them. See? Pretty simple. I'm obviously being sarcastic, but he's never been given a shot to hit for an extended period of time until this year when he had a fluke injury.

 

Giving up on a 26 year old with his minor league track record of hitting everywhere and his ability just seems foolish for a team likely headed toward a 110 million dollar payroll(or at the very least, close to maxed out on money). Where is the logic in that?

 

 

What's changed is now they know Hart can play there. They also know they have a cost efficient player in Aoki that can play RF. They also will make room for Schafer if not later this season, certainly next year.

 

This is the part I find to be the most off the mark for lack of a better way to put it without sounding like a jerk, but let me see if I've got this straight.

 

Logan Schafer who has been beset by injury himself, and the Brewers haven't thought enough of to bring up to at a MUCH weaker position to give HIM an extended look.

 

So Gamel's done, he's proven in the scrap's that he's played that he should be a throw in for another team despite massively outproducing Schafer all throughout the minor leagues.

 

And Gamel is ONE year older than Schafer. So you're basically punishing Gamel for out-producing Schafer(in the minors) and not putting up big numbers when he got jerked around massively by the manager, and rewarding Schafer because he hasn't yet been deemed valuable enough, again, a MUCH weaker postions(and three of them) to be called up for any period of time yet.

 

 

One last thing, by the time next season starts, Schafer, will be Gamel's age when this season started. Would you be ready to make Schafer a "throw in," type player in a deal if he had a freak injury going back to the wall and twisting his knee when he's basically been playing very good baseball.....which Gamel had. And we all know he had. It's easy to look at the season line in such an ridiculously small sample size, but we all saw how athletic he looked, the big plays he made, the little things he did on the base paths that showed us how much better an athlete he was than we realized, and his eye and his swing at the plate. He was hitting the ball hard.

 

Gamel looked good this year IMO. I believe personally, the only way you can argue he didn't, is by using a tiny fraction of numbers. As I said, playing hard, great base running, good at bats, solid defense and more athletic ability than I think most expected.

 

 

So tell me how it makes sense he gets just thrown out basically and Schafer handed a job. Of course what I think should ultimately happen is that Schafer AND Gomez should be on the team, Gamel playing in RF having to earn his role a little more, Schafer roaming the OF with the majority of the time going to Aoki and Gomez leaving Schafer as a 4th OF'er type. And they should have Gamel playing RF in instructional and working on it all off-season. No reason he shouldn't be able to play it. I'd say at this point he's more of an athletic player than Hart in terms of straight line speed and throwing arm from the OF.

[monty57]

What's changed is now they know Hart can play there...

 

...The relative merits of extending or not extending Hart have nothing to do with Gamel. Gamel will have to earn his way onto a roster and into a lineup.

 

Those two statements are contradictory. We know Hart can play first, which is the position Gamel plays. If it makes sense to trade Hart (which I think it does), then it makes it more likely that Gamel is our first baseman. If we don't trade Hart, or even extend him, then Gamel would essentially be fighting with Aoki/Gomez/Morgan/Schafer for playing time, as Hart would either play Gamel's position (1B) or he'd play RF, taking time from one of the OF's. What happens with Hart dramatically effects Gamel's future.

 

The relative merit of trading Hart is based in large part on the value we could receive in trade. If we could get a long-term answer at SS or SP, then I would certainly trade Hart for that SS or SP and name Gamel my first baseman. We would then have pre-arby (league minimum salary) guys playing key roles in multiple positions, which is something we need to have if we want to be able to pay big salaries to guys in other positions. Also, for once I'd like to get something in return for a player rather than watching him walk as a free agent. As to extending him, since the end of the "steroid era" I'm leery of signing/extending anyone into their mid-30's, especially someone with recurring knee problems.

[FVBrewerFan]

Problem is, no way you get a quality SP or SS for Hart. Not really directed at you in particular, I just see this type of statement in general very often. "Just trade x for x."

 

I think the approach they need to take with Hart, and lots of other players currently on the roster, is to be open-minded to any trade scenerio, but don't feel like you HAVE to trade someone. They have 3 chances to trade him. At the deadline this year, during the of-season, and at the dedline next year. Until/unless he is traded, you are geting good value for his services.

 

As far as Gamel is concerned, for those of you who want Greinke back at basically any cost- then Gael is exactly the type of player you need around. A minimum salary guy who will be serviceable at worst, and maybe very good at best. You don't need to worry about position, that usually works itself out.

 

Big picture, you make it known virtually everyone is available at the trade deadlline. You field all offers, and if you get one that makes sense and helps the team, pull the trigger. Then repeat the same thing during the off-season. Sounds simplistic, I know, but it's dangerous when you start trying to trade certain players or don't even look into trading others if the opportunity arises. For example, I'm sure someone would want Ramirez. A proven power bat. I would gladly get rid of the last two years of that contract PLUS get some talent back in return.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's now in the AAAA category as far as I'm concerned.

I'm pretty sure he's been in this "category" for you for years now

[monty57]

Problem is, no way you get a quality SP or SS for Hart.

 

It depends on whether or not you're willing to offer Hart a one-year / $13MM deal. I would offer that deal to him, so I think his return should net at least the comp picks which the receiving team would receive if they offered him the one-year deal. If you can't get better than that in return, you hold onto him for the next year and a half and then offer him the one-year deal. That's why I'd dangle him on the trade market now and in the offseason to see what you're offered. I probably wouldn't trade him next year unless a team were willing to lose a first rounder for a couple of months of Hart, which probably won't happen, so if he's traded, it should be now or this offseason.

 

As far as Gamel is concerned, for those of you who want Greinke back at basically any cost- then Gael is exactly the type of player you need around.

 

Exactly. If we are somehow able to trade some "chips" for some young league-minimum guys who can start for us, and we trust the few pre-arby guys we have (like Gamel) then we will probably have the financial flexibility to do other things, like make a realistic attempt at re-signing Greinke. If we relegate Gamel to a bench role and extend Hart, then we lose financial flexibilty, and we'll be a watered-down version of this year's team. Extending Hart would probably mean that unless we traded Braun or Yo we wouldn't be able to afford any other "expensive" players until Weeks and Ramirez fell off the books.

 

For example, I'm sure someone would want Ramirez. A proven power bat. I would gladly get rid of the last two years of that contract PLUS get some talent back in return.

 

Due to the back-end-loaded nature of Ramirez's contract, I doubt anyone would trade for him unless we eat a lot of his contract. If we could trade him right now and get something back in return, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[logan82]

If Hart will take an extension for around $12myear I would do it. I like it less and less the more you go up from there. I think he will want more but I think you have to explore that option.

 

Due to the back-end-loaded nature of Ramirez's contract, I doubt anyone would trade for him unless we eat a lot of his contract. If we could trade him right now and get something back in return, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

I would have no problem eating most of that contract if the return was good enough.

[Invader3K]

I would have no problem eating most of that contract if the return was good enough.

 

But of course, would the Brewers feel the same way?

[JohnBriggs12]

monty57,

 

The Brewers weren't all that sold on Gamel going into this season. He got the job basically by default. If he performed reasonably well, then he'd stay there. If not they were ready to move Hart, injury or no injury and they would not have waited an entire season. They also kept Ishikawa as insurance in case of failure. If they were sold on Gamel, neither move would have been made.

 

 

Please support that statement on how the Brewers "felt," about a particular player, because they sure as hell sounded pretty sold on him.

 

That they brought in a player who was signed to a minor league contract and he made the team doesn't really say a whole heckuva lot.

 

And how long WOULD they have waited? Why don't you tell us? Because that was one thing that RR stressed. How patient they were going to be with Gamel. He's 26, he's been blocked by our 4 best players(or 4 of 5) the last couple years while putting up huge numbers in the minors.

 

Those are FACTS. Telling us their feelings or what they might have done with Gamel is just pure conjecture. Which is fine, but it's presented as fact.

 

 

 

What's also changed is Gamel is missing nearly an entire season. He's never hit over an extended period in the major leagues so your comment he "should be able to hit" is much less certain than you suggest. Change the word "should" to "could" and there is a huge difference.

 

Guess who also hasn't hit over an extended period of time in the major leagues? Me! Because I haven't PLAYED in them. See? Pretty simple. I'm obviously being sarcastic, but he's never been given a shot to hit for an extended period of time until this year when he had a fluke injury.

 

Giving up on a 26 year old with his minor league track record of hitting everywhere and his ability just seems foolish for a team likely headed toward a 110 million dollar payroll(or at the very least, close to maxed out on money). Where is the logic in that?

 

I wouldn't want you starting on my team either Monty. He'll be 27 next month and while it's true he's never had an extended look, it's a fact he's never produced at the major league level. I based my speculation that the Brewers weren't sold on him because they talked openly about giving Hart time at 1B and they brought in Ishikawa, who had more experience at the position at the major league level.

 

Look I didn't have a problem with the Brewers starting this season with Gamel this year as the everyday guy at first base. Despite some comments, if you'll look back, I posted several times that I thought Gamel had potential to be similar to Adam LaRoche. But the difference is by the time he turned 27, LaRoche had 3 full seasons in the majors. What's changed? Gamel isn't playing anywhere right now. He's missing almost an entire season. Any player, even with some history of success at the major league level is going to be a question mark after missing so much time. Yes he's hit as a minor leaguer. Although if you look close, his first year at AAA was fairly uninspiring: .278/.367/.473 with 89 K's in 320 AB's. Lots of guys put up big numbers in the minors. Until you do it over a period of time in the bigs though, there are questions.

[Nottso]

With all the inter-league stuff next year maybe Gamel's bat plays as DH?

[monty57]

I wouldn't want you starting on my team either Monty.

 

No, you wouldn't. Probably not even if it was a beer-league softball team as I gave that up years ago. However, that wasn't my post you were quoting, it was HiandTight :-)

[jerichoholicninja]

With all the inter-league stuff next year maybe Gamel's bat plays as DH?

 

From what I heard each team will only play 20 inter-league games next year so the effect of the DH will be minimal.

[WV Brew]

Despite the low expectations, Gamel is still the best left-handed hitter the Brewers have. Until you guys come up with a reasonable alternative, Gamel must be a factor next year. Coming back from knee surgery, he will likely have to remain at first, like it or not. Maybe back to the role for Hart as a part-time 1B if indeed he is back.

[WV Brew]

Despite the low expectations, Gamel is still the best left-handed hitter the Brewers have. Until you guys come up with a reasonable alternative, Gamel must be a factor next year. Coming back from knee surgery, he will likely have to remain at first, like it or not. Maybe back to the role for Hart as a part-time 1B if indeed he is back.

[adamds22]

He's a cost controlled player and did pretty damn well at 1B this year until his injury, if we don't trade Hart at the deadline we need to move him back to OF next year and put Gamel at 1B. If we are to restock this team in any way we need money and signing Hart to an extension would just take up more of that money when we have a capable Gamel ready to play 1B for a fraction of the cost. I personally do not think we should sign Hart to any kind of extension unless he took a pretty big hometown discount. I like the guy but we have a lot of depth at OF and a lot more glaring holes than any of our three OF spots.

[chuckiehacks]

He's a cost controlled player and did pretty damn well at 1B this year until his injury.

 

 

I'm not sure how anyone can claim this. 246/293/348 doesn't scream "pretty damn well" to me. Add to that his defense, which was nothing spectacular (and I'd argue worse than Hart), and I don't think it's a given he's a central part of the plan next year.

 

Yes, he's left handed and cost controlled, which helps, but I don't think you can cite his MLB performance as a reason for him being a starter. As others have pointed out, he's had good minor league numbers, which would hopefully lead to good MLB numbers. That just hasn't happened for a variety of reasons, some out of Mat's control, and some very much within his control.

[HiAndTight]

What's changed is now they know Hart can play there...

 

...The relative merits of extending or not extending Hart have nothing to do with Gamel. Gamel will have to earn his way onto a roster and into a lineup.

 

Those two statements are contradictory. We know Hart can play first, which is the position Gamel plays. If it makes sense to trade Hart (which I think it does), then it makes it more likely that Gamel is our first baseman. If we don't trade Hart, or even extend him, then Gamel would essentially be fighting with Aoki/Gomez/Morgan/Schafer for playing time, as Hart would either play Gamel's position (1B) or he'd play RF, taking time from one of the OF's. What happens with Hart dramatically effects Gamel's future.

 

The relative merit of trading Hart is based in large part on the value we could receive in trade. If we could get a long-term answer at SS or SP, then I would certainly trade Hart for that SS or SP and name Gamel my first baseman. We would then have pre-arby (league minimum salary) guys playing key roles in multiple positions, which is something we need to have if we want to be able to pay big salaries to guys in other positions. Also, for once I'd like to get something in return for a player rather than watching him walk as a free agent. As to extending him, since the end of the "steroid era" I'm leery of signing/extending anyone into their mid-30's, especially someone with recurring knee problems.

 

 

I love this post and I could not possibly agree more.

 

I'll admit a bias as I've thought for a couple years that Hart wasn't going to age well and have simply been waiting for him to fall off. He hasn't. He's put up nearly 10 WAR the last two years. BUT, if you look around at what inferior players(at least according to WAR) are getting paid, Hart looks extremely valuable, while somehow guys like Josh Willingham bounce around from team to team.

 

Hart to me has looked so good this year that I would offer him maybe a 2 year 24million dollar extension with a 3 year either vesting option of a mutual option with a 2 million dollar buyout if WE decide not to bring him back at lets say 14 million, or

I'd DEFINITELY look to trade him.

 

And the to trade him or not comes down to what you said, what can you get for him. I wonder what Texas would give up for Hart at 1st base? It's basically their only hole, however it also offers protection if Josh Hamilton leaves via free agency and you'd have to imagine he'd have 2-3 more HR's playing in Texas. Maybe the Dodgers want to upgrade LF after Kemp comes back(though Abreu is playing very well, though obviously they may want to upgrade 1st base with Loney not producing).

 

In fact, in addition to the Rangers, the Dodgers appear to be an ideal team to look to for trading partners. Evoldi for Hart is a deal I'd do in a second, or maybe Alfredo Silverio and Zach Lee for Hart.

 

It all comes down to two things;

1-What can we do over the next three weeks. Can we actually go on a little run? I personally think we're capable of being a Rockie/A's type team(or take your pick) that could run off something like 15 of 18 POTENTIALLY with their pitching. Fiers has been so good, he, Greinke/Yo/Fiers has to stay in the rotation, stuff be damned, he is a good pitcher, it's that simple, Marcum comes back and Estrada is almost back already. I think Fiers could be that X-Factor and I said this before he even came up, but in 1992, what propelled us to a big run was Cal Eldred. He went 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA(11-1 with a 1.49 until the last game of the season when he had a bad start). If Fiers can give us a 2.60 ERA the rest of the way as the least tries to figure him out, we DO have enough talent on offense that we can turn it around. Aram already is, Weeks certainly can, Aoki, Lucroy is coming back, Hart is playing well, MM is a STUD behind the plate and better stay up and catch quite a bit when Lucroy comes back. I love that kid.

 

Anyway, a simple Clint Barmes type trade could be a big boost and very cheap and if our lineup gets going, things have a way of having a domino affect.

 

 

Of course chances are we do very little of that and we have a NUMBER of sellable pieces.

Players we can legitimately get some GOOD talent for, talent that could help us in the next year or 2.

 

Hart

Greinke

K-Rod

Veras

Kottaras

A-Ram(especially the better he's playing if we eat 6-7 million of his contract, it's actually a pretty good looking deal).

Marcum-Health dependent. Gotta get him out there for at least 5-6 starts, and strong ones.

Wolf-Been pitching better, just to save money and get a flame throwing erratic young kid in rookie ball or low A. A lottery pick.

 

You could easily end up with two top 50 prospects for Greinke, a top 50 for Hart+ a top 10 in a solid system, A young guy with upside for K-Rod, same for Veras, a flier for Kottaras, and at least a top 50 plus a second in B to B- prospect for Marcum.

 

Green takes 3rd, stick with the craptastic SS position, Weeks at 2nd(only because I'm not paying 20 million to dump Weeks. Too much confidence in him). Ishikawa/Kottaras at 1st base, Lucroy/Maldonado, Braun/Gomez/Schafer/Aoki/Gindl in the OF.

Yo, Fiers, Livan, Estrada and then whoever else.

 

Play out the string, get a top 5 pick, use your trade chips to massively improve the farm system, and start fresh next year about 50 million off the payroll and rebuild.

 

 

Something maybe we should do anyway, but with Mark A, I don't see him doing it until he believes he HAS to. And sadly I don't think many of those players will be shopped.

 

 

 

 

But bottom line, it makes absolutely no sense to just dump Gamel at this point with the future we're looking at. It makes a HELLUVA lot more sense to either stay on the path we're on WITH Greinke, or then just COMPLETELY rebuild saving only Lucroy, Braun, Yo(and hell, maybe even test the market on Yo..just stick your toe in there. He's proven he's not really an ace and we're at the point if we did this we'd be terrible for the rest of his time here anywhere.