Crew signs Livan Hernandez

[RightFieldCoder]

Per... stay with me on this... Bill Hall.

 

"@BillHall_III: Just seen Livan Hernandez n the airport in Chicago.He's on his way 2 Milwaukee 2 help their starting rotation.Talked briefly sounded excited"

 

 

Mod note: this has since been confirmed by multiple sources

Maybe his role is both long man and to be a kind of secondary coach to the young pitchers we now have?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The only way to really know Livan's true age is either to cut off a leg and count the rings or if he sadly goes on the permanent DL due to natural causes.

 

His ERA must be a point lower solely due to pitching against the Brewers.

[HiAndTight]

Or there's a deal in the works to move Greinke. . .

 

 

Then why even bother with Livan Hernandez? I think people read too much into things.

 

Signing an aging vet with some history of success to help keep you afloat after a rash of injuries wouldn't jive in any way with just waiving the white flag and giving up on the season.

[HiAndTight]

Nothing againgst Hernandez, but this is just another way to keep a potentially useful young player in AAA. Hernandez will take the long reliever role, Estrada to the rotation, Fiers to the minors when Marcum's ready. Then Green (who's behind Random in Roenicke's book) will head back when Ishikawa returns.

 

I see nothing wrong with that. Those potentially useful players haven't shown themselves to be more useful now than their replacements and can be more useful by getting better in AAA. None of them are finished learning at that level so why rush them to make a lateral move production wise? Fiers looks good for a rookie but not better than Estrada or Marcum. I can see the argument of leaving Fires in the rotation to help the pen but that cheats Estrada out of a job he kind of deserves. I think that is a bad precedent to set. We can let Hernandez pitch in low leverage situations as an innings eater and save our pen a lot of wear and tear without losing any games by doing so. It would put the rest of the pen back to their normal roles to boot.

Green should be getting regular time in AAA since he's not going to get much time anyway with Weeks, Ramirez and Hart ahead of him. Why let him sit on the bench when Ishikawa has done better in that role this season so far? Add in the maintenance of depth keeping those veterans provides and every one of those moves seems to me to be obvious.

 

 

This line of thinking, with all due respect, it starting to get tiresome.

 

That you just automatically send the younger guy down so he can get regular AB's or isn't done learning there.

 

1-Not every major leaguer is going to be a regular, so sometimes players like Green are going to have to get used to playing 2-3 times a week.

 

2-Beyond that, if they ARE going to be regulars like Fiers or Green, how much better would you like them to perform before moving them up?

 

This is how starting jobs at the big league level are earned. A player gets a chance and he plays well. I think Fiers has been absolutely outstanding and I think if Marcum's injured he absolutely should be in the rotation. And to be honest, I think that if Marcum does come back and is ready to go when he comes off the DL, Fiers SHOULD still stay in the rotation.

 

I don't understand at all why it's a bad "precedent," to set? What, that a younger guy who's pitched VERY well in his first few starts, and his entire minor league career.

 

Lets not also forget that Estrada was our long man to start the season and 30 year old big league pitchers lose their jobs routinely to younger prospects if said prospect performs a well or better.

While Estrada has a 5.00 FIP

Fiers has a 2.67 FIP in 10 fewer innings pitched including two 7 inning outings to save our BP when they were desperately needed.

 

So I don't see how it sets a bad precedent to go with the better player.

 

Now lets say Taylor Green was a 22 year old Rickie Weeks, fine. But he's not. He's a player who may start for a couple years, but his value for the most part will be in his ability to move around and play different positions and PH. So...I'm not seeing the problem.

 

 

I think the Brewers owe it to themselves to see what they have in Fiers, see if he can continue to give us that boost we so desperately need while Marcum's out, and maybe just as importantly when he comes back.

 

I honestly believe Fiers will finish the season with an ERA below 4.00 if given the chance.

[bacon06]

This has nothing to do with the Brewers needs. It was just their turn to have him on the team.

 

This post didn't get the attention it deserved. Well done sir.

[TooLiveBrew]

Pretty funny to see that graphic that Fox put up when Livan was warming in the 'pen -- this is his 9th MLB team.

 

And I completely agree on Thurston's post, bacon06. Definitely worthy of praise.

[adambr2]

Not that it should come as any surprise, but both Mayonset and Perez cleared waivers and are headed back to Nashville.

[WV Brew]

Jamie Moyer is now available as well. Could have a real veteran presence.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would rather have seen Hernandez start the 10th inning today than Manny Parra.

[Thurston Fluff]

1-Not every major leaguer is going to be a regular, so sometimes players like Green are going to have to get used to playing 2-3 times a week.

 

Why would you keep him over someone who has better numbers in that role than he has? Ishikawa has about the same number of ab's and has done better. What you seem to think is the way to go is to risk losing Ishikawa to keep Green. Yet Ishikawa has better numbers as a bench guy this season and we would probably lose him if he was DFA'ed. We can send down Green, keep them both in case of injury, and let Green play everyday so he might someday be more than just a bench guy. How is that not a better option? There is no reason at all to keep Green over Ishikawa at this point other than an infatuation with young players.

2-Beyond that, if they ARE going to be regulars like Fiers or Green, how much better would you like them to perform before moving them up?

 

I'd say slightly better than a 4.42 ERA or a .759 OPS in AAA.

Lets not also forget that Estrada was our long man to start the season and 30 year old big league pitchers lose their jobs routinely to younger prospects if said prospect performs a well or better.

 

Lets also not forget RRR said publicly Estrada deserved a chance for what he did in the past. Setting that aside usually that happens when the minor leauger does really well in the minors and forces the team's hand and typically not done for guy three years his junior.

I don't understand at all why it's a bad "precedent," to set? What, that a younger guy who's pitched VERY well in his first few starts, and his entire minor league career.

 

He has done well but his minor league time shows he isn't as good right now as his major league level numbers suggest. He has a bright future but I think his 4.42 ERA and poorer peripherals in AAA than the majors shows he can still learn more there before we can expect continued production at the same level as he is now.

 

While Estrada has a 5.00 FIP

Fiers has a 2.67 FIP in 10 fewer innings pitched including two 7 inning outings to save our BP when they were desperately needed.

So far those numbers suggest he is a better at getting out major league hitters than minor league ones. That should be enough to tell you all you need to know about them. Frankly his minor league numbers are too small a sample to be useful this season as well and there is more of them than there are major league ones right now. Simply put we don't know if past performance is indicative of future ones at this point.

 

Now lets say Taylor Green was a 22 year old Rickie Weeks, fine. But he's not. He's a player who may start for a couple years, but his value for the most part will be in his ability to move around and play different positions and PH. So...I'm not seeing the problem.

The problem is he hasn't shown he is as good at it as his replacement in that role and we would most likely lose said replacement if we kept him. We'd lose production and depth for no gain at all.

I think the Brewers owe it to themselves to see what they have in Fiers, see if he can continue to give us that boost we so desperately need while Marcum's out, and maybe just as importantly when he comes back.

 

I think the Brewer owe it to themselves to see what they have in both Estrada and Fiers. We can do that by moving Fiers down when Marcum comes back. If they believe Fiers can help in the pen I am all for that. He has shown enough to stay if needed. But I just don't think he has done enough to supplant Estrada at this point. Another couple outings like yesterday coupled with a few poor ones by Estrada and I may change my mind. But baseball is not about rushing things. It is about taking enough time to get as accurate a read on a player as you can get.

I honestly believe Fiers will finish the season with an ERA below 4.00 if given the chance.

 

What are you basing that on? He may very well be good but his ERA in AAA was 4.42 in more innings pitched. How does that translate to a sub 4 ERA in the majors over a season? I know it seems like I'm bashing the guy but I'm not. I'm just calling for some rational objective thinking about his start and what should, or more importantly shouldn't, be done in the future based on that.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why would you keep him over someone who has better numbers in that role than he has? Ishikawa has about the same number of ab's and has done better.

 

Because Taylor Green actually has a chance to have a decent career & has more talent as a hitter than Ishikawa... and can defend positions aside from the easiest one on the field. Not to mention Green himself can play a passable 1B. Green has more value than Ishikawa, period... and that's why you keep him.

 

Think of it this way -- would you rather develop & retain a clone of Mike Fontenot, or keep a guy who can only play 1B & is a well-below avg. hitter at that spot. You can literally find a guy like Ish for free every offseason. There's nothing special about him & no reason to keep him over continuing Green's development at the big-league level. Are you under the impression that keeping Ish over Green is going to be that push over the hump & into the postseason this year? Because if you don't, you let Ish walk & keep Green ten times out of ten.

[Raw Biz]

I honestly believe Fiers will finish the season with an ERA below 4.00 if given the chance.

 

What are you basing that on? He may very well be good but his ERA in AAA was 4.42 in more innings pitched. How does that translate to a sub 4 ERA in the majors over a season? I know it seems like I'm bashing the guy but I'm not. I'm just calling for some rational objective thinking about his start and what should, or more importantly shouldn't, be done in the future based on that.

 

Why are you only using his ERA from this season alone? This was easily his worst ERA in the minors for his career. He had an ERA under 2 last year in a much larger sample.

[Thurston Fluff]

Because Taylor Green actually has a chance to have a decent career & has more talent as a hitter than Ishikawa.

 

Two points. 1- That is the exact reason why I think we let him play everyday in AAA.

2- What he has a chance to be and what he is now are two separate things. So far in the limited sample we have shows he isn't better than what we have. Given the limited ab's he likely to get going forward I doubt we will be able to tell. Again getting rid of a player who is no worse and lose the depth along with development time for a young player to boot seems like a stupid move as a franchise both now and for the future.

 

and can defend positions aside from the easiest one on the field.

 

WE have two other players who play more positions than he does so I don't see why we need a redundant player who is hitting about the same as the rest...which is to say he's not. If he was actually playing well I could see the argument but he isn't. If we want to get him to play well I think it better to get him ab's so he can continue to progress. Maybe then if someone like Ramirez or Weeks get hurt we have a guy playing well to take over. As it is I would hate to see him take a couple weeks to get up to speed before he hits. That would be the worst case scenario for this season.

Green has more value than Ishikawa, period... and that's why you keep him.

 

More value how? I'm not saying he doesn't have more potential. I'm also hot saying he couldn't be a better everyday player. But that is not what we need form him NOW. He is not a good pinch hitter so far, every position he plays is covered by two others and he is the only one who can't possibly be lost if we demote him. To keep him means losing depth on an already shallow team. He is not a better fit for what the team needs now. So while he may be a more valuable player in a vacuum he is not of more value to this team at this point in the season, period...That is why you put him in AAA and get the most value out of him as possible for the longest period of time possible.

would you rather develop & retain a clone of Mike Fontenot, or keep a guy who can only play 1B & is a well-below avg. hitter at that spot.

 

Those are not mutually exclusive. I would rather have both. Which was what I have been advocating for all along. Keep the guy who has done better so far this season and maintain our depth while simultaneously developing a Mike Fontenot clone. Perhaps he will even develop into more than that given regular playing time. Unless the minors are no longer where players develop I think you posed false options.

You can literally find a guy like Ish for free every offseason.

 

This isn't the offseason.

There's nothing special about him & no reason to keep him over continuing Green's development at the big-league level.

 

I think I've listed the reasons already but here goes once again. Ishikawa is playing better as a bench player right now. His stats show that. Now I realize the small sample issues but they are what we have with these two. Well Ishikawa has enough of a track record to know he's going to probably have a +700 OPS as a role player. He's done so for parts of five seasons now. But Green we don't know. All we know is he hasn't been over .700 yet in 111 ab's. Now add in the anecdotal evidence such as Ishikawa already knowing how to play irregularly and that veterans tend to do better as role players to begin with and I can't see a single argument that shows me Green will out perform Ishikawa as a part time player this season. If we were talking about a starting role then I would think otherwise. When it comes to the next season I really don't give two hoots because the future is not being harmed by having Green play everyday in AAA. In fact it could help more than hurt. I don't see anything about Green's development that will be better served playing part time vs playing everyday in AAA. He had one season of good play after some struggles coming back from an injury. He is an intriguing player but he is not a finished product. When he has learned all he can at AAA he may even be more than a bench player. So why limit his growth by rotting on the bench?

 

Are you under the impression that keeping Ish over Green is going to be that push over the hump & into the postseason this year?

 

No I'm just not under the impression that Green will get us there where Ish would not.

Because if you don't, you let Ish walk & keep Green ten times out of ten.

 

Our current season of injuries should be enough to tell you you never let a guy go who is no worse than the other guy if you can keep both. If anything will get us over the hump it is having depth to keep us afloat during injuries. Ten times out of ten you keep the most players of any value at all that you can. If there is no reason to think one is better than the other AT THIS TIME you keep both if possible. Part of that is having a guy get regular ab's so he can come in and hit right away if called upon.

 

Why are you only using his ERA from this season alone? This was easily his worst ERA in the minors for his career. He had an ERA under 2 last year in a much larger sample.

 

For the same reason someone would use what he did so far in the majors to show he's already a sub 4 ERA type pitcher. It was to point out some people are jumping the gun a little on where he is in his development. The new flavor phenoms takes center stage and people act like they are already proven, can't miss, players. Last season it was Peralta this season Thornburg and Fiers. I don't think that is a bad thing. It's cool to watch these guys develop and get excited about their potential. It's just not the same as being ready now to play at a high level in the majors. Like I said, if he keeps it up and Estrada falters I wouldn't have a problem with it down the road. It's just a little early to declare he's going to be a sub 4 ERA pitcher this season or that he has surpassed Estrada already. I think his future looks very bright. Nothing about his time in the minors or majors makes me believe he can't be an effective pitcher in the majors. I am not as inclined to think he is a sub 4 guy now. That is my only point.

[TooLiveBrew]

Green has more value than Ishikawa, period... and that's why you keep him.

 

More value how? I'm not saying he doesn't have more potential. I'm also hot saying he couldn't be a better everyday player. But that is not what we need form him NOW. He is not a good pinch hitter so far, every position he plays is covered by two others and he is the only one who can't possibly be lost if we demote him. To keep him means losing depth on an already shallow team. He is not a better fit for what the team needs now. So while he may be a more valuable player in a vacuum he is not of more value to this team at this point in the season, period...That is why you put him in AAA and get the most value out of him as possible for the longest period of time possible.

I respect that you do want to keep Green, but I believe that at this point Green just needs to play in the bigs. Whether he's hitting .300 right now or .200, imo he has nothing left to prove at AAA. He needs to prove it at the big-league level, and when career journeymen are playing ahead of him it irritates me. Green needs to be facing MLB pitching & getting better -- which includes struggling like he is or has been doing.

 

But this team is in no position imo to be worrying about the marginal upgrade that Ishikawa might be, if Green hits .200 all season. If Green starts to adapt to MLB pitching like many young players do, he'll be able to match or better what people would guess as high-end production for Ishikawa.

 

I think if you keep Green in AAA to try to get the maximum amount of service time value out of him, you run a very serious risk of not maximizing the player's actual talent... if that makes sense. I don't want Green until he's 32, I want him to reach his talent ceiling. I think he has a far better chance of doing the latter if he's allowed to struggle & improve right now.

[reillymcshane]

I'm beginning to think Livan was added to go into the rotation when (if) the Brewers become sellers. If this team goes on a selling spree, the likely candidates are Greinke, Marcum (assuming he's not hurt, and if he is hurt, he's not pitching, so the end result is he's gone), Wolf (assuming you can get anything for him -- even a $1 million of salary relief) - and then K-Rod in the pen. Maybe even Veras and Loe.

 

If we dropped the three starters, that leaves the rotation as Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers... and then who? From the minors you could bring up Thornburg and Peralta - but I'd rather just wait until next year. No point in wasting them in a lost season.

 

Livan would be a perfect guy to fill a spot for the rest of the year if you go on a purge.

[MoreTrife]

I'm beginning to think Livan was added to go into the rotation when (if) the Brewers become sellers. If this team goes on a selling spree, the likely candidates are Greinke, Marcum (assuming he's not hurt, and if he is hurt, he's not pitching, so the end result is he's gone), Wolf (assuming you can get anything for him -- even a $1 million of salary relief) - and then K-Rod in the pen. Maybe even Veras and Loe.

 

If we dropped the three starters, that leaves the rotation as Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers... and then who? From the minors you could bring up Thornburg and Peralta - but I'd rather just wait until next year. No point in wasting them in a lost season.

 

Livan would be a perfect guy to fill a spot for the rest of the year if you go on a purge.

 

didn't think of that. interestingthought.

[chadomac]

I'd rather have Thornburg and Peralta get their feet wet in the bigs this year when it doesn't matter and then maybe - just MAYBE - it will matter next year and they won't be so green.

[monty57]

I'm beginning to think Livan was added to go into the rotation when (if) the Brewers become sellers. If this team goes on a selling spree, the likely candidates are Greinke, Marcum (assuming he's not hurt, and if he is hurt, he's not pitching, so the end result is he's gone), Wolf (assuming you can get anything for him -- even a $1 million of salary relief) - and then K-Rod in the pen. Maybe even Veras and Loe.

 

If we dropped the three starters, that leaves the rotation as Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers... and then who? From the minors you could bring up Thornburg and Peralta - but I'd rather just wait until next year. No point in wasting them in a lost season.

 

Livan would be a perfect guy to fill a spot for the rest of the year if you go on a purge.

 

That's probably the plan. I don't mind too much if Fiers gets sent down for a while and Estrada keeps starting because it is very likely that we will need both of them in the 2013 rotation, so both of them need to start. I agree that I'd rather see Thornburg and Peralta getting more AAA starts, so Hernandez is as good an option as any to eat up starts for the rest of a year in which we "sell." That is, unless we bring back an MLB ready starting pitcher or two in trade.

 

As far as Green, he might as well get sent to AAA, as he's pretty much the last guy on the bench on Roenicke's Brewers. If he's not going to play at all, he should be starting in AAA.

[monty57]

I'd rather have Thornburg and Peralta get their feet wet in the bigs this year when it doesn't matter and then maybe - just MAYBE - it will matter next year and they won't be so green.

 

Thornburg maybe, as he looked okay until he gave up the homers when he got tired.

 

Peralta probably needs to get things straigntened out in AAA. When he was briefly up, the announcers said something to the effect that he has some confidence issues. If that's true, throwing him to the wolves in the MLB rotation when he's obviously "not right" is probably the worst thing the Brewers could do.

[TheCrew07]

Just note that the Brewers using young pitchers for the rest of the season in no way would impact their service time with the organization or super 2 status.

 

Bringing them up in July is essentially the same as having them start next season in the rotation.

 

Thornburg hadn't thrown in 10 days and he was ejected at something like 80 pitches in his last start prior to him pitching for Milwaukee, let's not make too much of his MLB appearance until wearing down actually proves to be an issue.

 

I actually don't think either Thornburg or Peralta are ready right now though I think Thornburg would be serviceable. I'm just saying from a service time standpoint the Brewers wouldn't be wasting anything by having either pitcher in the rotation this season.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Service time could be an issue if they were still moving up and down next year which is a distinct possibility.

[TheCrew07]

We'll have them through their age 31 30 seasons the way it is without a contract that buys out some FA years.

 

I don't believe service time is any kind of issue with either player, the issue is and will be performance.

 

edit. I thought they were both 24, but they are actually 23.

[reillymcshane]

If Thornburg and Peralta show they are ready for the big leagues I'm all for bringing them up. I think both would have to show some consistent success for at least a short run - perhaps 5-10 starts - before I'd be comfortable bringing them up. But if they aren't ready, make them figure out their issues at AAA.

 

Edit: I should add that if the Brewers suddenly go on a run and get back into the playoff race, and Wolf is still sucking a month or so from now - I'd have no problem giving the ball to Tyler or Willy - assuming each had earned their way to the spot.

[monty57]

and Wolf is still sucking a month or so from now

 

Wolf was pathetic in April, but has been okay in May and June. Not stellar by any means, but he hasn't been "sucking" lately.

[Thurston Fluff]

I respect that you do want to keep Green, but I believe that at this point Green just needs to play in the bigs. Whether he's hitting .300 right now or .200, imo he has nothing left to prove at AAA.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this point. I think more ab's at AAA is better than less in general. But if he is going to be a super sub type his fielding various positions could be improved much more playing every day than twice a week. That is key if he's really going to be a super sub type. I wouldn't mind seeing him get some time in the outfield either. Anything that makes him more versatile later wold be good. That is best done in AAA IMHO.