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2012-06-20 Blue Jays (Carreno) at Brewers (Gallardo), 1:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 8-3]

pretendastronaut
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chadomac Draft Eligible

chadomac

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just checking in sporadically this afternoon, i would like to note how incredible it is that Dillard has seemingly pitched multiple innings AND we still have the lead going into the 9th.

 

NO LEAD IS SAFE WITH THIS SQUAD!

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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Braun will be fine. He's kinda a panzy with little injuries.

 

Is this a sign that Fiers will be BP from here on out?

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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dlk9s Carolina Mudcats

dlk9s

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Isn't her 15 minutes of fame about up?

 

Talk about flaunting her stuff and craving attention. I recently saw her new photos she posted on facebook. Borderline porn. As her 15 minutes winds down, she will probably keep cranking up her appropriate levels until she poses nude someplace.

I know, right? If there's one thing I can't stand, it's an attractive woman who's not afraid to show some cleavage. And on my television set! The nerve of that woman.

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fondybrewfan ACL Brewers

fondybrewfan

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Or at the very least not terrible. Just win two of the (3) games in KC, (1) in MN, or (1) against TOR and we would have been 10-5 in the last 15. We had a legitimate shot to win every single game; we could be sitting on a 9 game winning streak right now.
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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Sorry to rehash this but:

 

You continue to argue that you can't predict player performance with a high degree of certainly. I continue to nod my head in agreement. Still, we have some statistical tools at our disposal that have proven to give some insight on the subject.

 

This sounds nice, but this does not reflect how you post around here. You say that we have some tools to give "some insight" yet you treat these tools like the word of god. Anytime EVER anyone is playing above average some poster may get excited and post about hoping the great play will continue, or someone is playing below average and a poster is concerned the poor play will continue, you come in, with the highest coefficient of smug of anyone on this board, and make some post that comes off as: "Listen you feeble minded peon, you simply do not understand that in theory statistics say everything regresses to the average and that will happen here. Your tiny brain is reacting to your primal emotional instincts and you are not capable of thinking rationally. You are acting like the average person and I am reminding you that I am above average and my theoretical knowledge is ALWAYS right"

 

You do not do this sometimes as suggested by your above post that you have tools that give you some insight, you do all the time suggesting you have the tools to always be right.

 

For example, this post from the Rickie Weeks so far this season thread from May 10th:

 

I guess when I look at a guy, I don't look at what he HAS done in his career. I look at what he is doing NOW.

 

 

Preseason ZiPS Projection: .260/.350/.460

Current Line: .164/.302/.302

Updated ZiPS Projection: .245/.342/.441

 

The updated projection takes into account his bad start to the season. Without having any knowledge of what is causing his bad start (if anything), we can only presume that his updated projection is our best guess for his production for Friday. I can see an argument that projections are based on the average guy and Weeks' start is very un-average. I recall reading a study that showed players in extreme hot and cold streaks showed a SLIGHT persistence effect. Still, you are putting too much emphasis on his most recent production in terms of projecting future production. History shows us that.

 

Current line: .181/.312/.300

Updated ZiPS Projection: .214/.328/.369

 

You are putting too much emphasis on his Updated ZiPS projection in terms of projecting future production. Reality shows us that.

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Bigblast College Ball

Bigblast

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Isn't her 15 minutes of fame about up?

 

Talk about flaunting her stuff and craving attention. I recently saw her new photos she posted on facebook. Borderline porn. As her 15 minutes winds down, she will probably keep cranking up her appropriate levels until she poses nude someplace.

I know, right? If there's one thing I can't stand, it's an attractive woman who's not afraid to show some cleavage. And on my television set! The nerve of that woman.

 

 

Agreed and she knows a ton about baseball. Such nerve. WE should have some 200 pound overweight women sitting in the front row.

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dlk9s Carolina Mudcats

dlk9s

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Anytime EVER anyone is playing above average some poster may get excited and post about hoping the great play will continue, or someone is playing below average and a poster is concerned the poor play will continue, you come in, with the highest coefficient of smug of anyone on this board, and make some post that comes off as: "Listen you feeble minded peon, you simply do not understand that in theory statistics say everything regresses to the average and that will happen here. Your tiny brain is reacting to your primal emotional instincts and you are not capable of thinking rationally. You are acting like the average person and I am reminding you that I am above average and my theoretical knowledge is ALWAYS right"

http://i.imgur.com/1Dnsw.gif

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Baseball players are not random independent variables.

You continue to argue that you can't predict player performance with a high degree of certainly. I continue to nod my head in agreement. Still, we have some statistical tools at our disposal that have proven to give some insight on the subject. You don't agree? That's your prerogative. I will continue to tout updated ZiPS projections as an objective estimate of future performance and you will continue to exclaim, "These players aren't robots"! Everything will be as it should be.

 

In many areas, such as business or science, statistics are very powerful and have been shown to be very useful. They are why casinos make money and people release political polls and predict particle behaviors, etc. Now look at sports betting, using the same tools the results are totally different. No one, from anyone's uncle's gut the MIT PhD likely employed at the MGM can predict sports at the same level as other things. There is a reason the sports book is hidden in the back of the casino and you have to walk past 10,000 slot machines to get there.

 

I have used baseball statistics to make money, so I know a lot more than you realize about what they can and can't do. Dozens upon dozens of studies have been done to quantify the uncertainty in these estimates. Why do you keep acting like that uncertainty is being ignored? This always just becomes a straw man argument where you are arguing against someone who says that projections can predict the future. Well congratulations, you won.

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RightFieldCoder First Round Pick

RightFieldCoder

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Isn't her 15 minutes of fame about up?

 

Talk about flaunting her stuff and craving attention. I recently saw her new photos she posted on facebook. Borderline porn. As her 15 minutes winds down, she will probably keep cranking up her appropriate levels until she poses nude someplace.

I know, right? If there's one thing I can't stand, it's an attractive woman who's not afraid to show some cleavage. And on my television set! The nerve of that woman.

 

 

Agreed and she knows a ton about baseball. Such nerve. WE should have some 200 pound overweight women sitting in the front row.

Just because she's less than 200 lbs she's good looking?

The poster previously known as Robin19, now @RFCoder

EA Sports...It's in the game...until we arbitrarily decide to shut off the server.

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