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2012-06-20 Blue Jays (Carreno) at Brewers (Gallardo), 1:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 8-3]

pretendastronaut
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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Baseball players are not random independent variables.

You continue to argue that you can't predict player performance with a high degree of certainly. I continue to nod my head in agreement. Still, we have some statistical tools at our disposal that have proven to give some insight on the subject. You don't agree? That's your prerogative. I will continue to tout updated ZiPS projections as an objective estimate of future performance and you will continue to exclaim, "These players aren't robots"! Everything will be as it should be.

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Baseball players are not random independent variables.

You continue to argue that you can't predict player performance with a high degree of certainly. I continue to nod my head in agreement. Still, we have some statistical tools at our disposal that have proven to give some insight on the subject. You don't agree? That's your prerogative. I will continue to tout updated ZiPS projections as an objective estimate of future performance and you will continue to exclaim, "These players aren't robots"! Everything will be as it should be.

 

In many areas, such as business or science, statistics are very powerful and have been shown to be very useful. They are why casinos make money and people release political polls and predict particle behaviors, etc. Now look at sports betting, using the same tools the results are totally different. No one, from anyone's uncle's gut the MIT PhD likely employed at the MGM can predict sports at the same level as other things. There is a reason the sports book is hidden in the back of the casino and you have to walk past 10,000 slot machines to get there.

 

Some people refuse to accept this. Its like they ignore that there must be some fundamental difference between these things. We know the statistics work, so what could the problem be? Maybe the assumptions? Maybe everything doesn't just regress to the mean as ZIPs would predict. Again, what does ZIPs really tell you? Its pretty obvious to me, I can look at any player and tell you about what their ZIPs will look like, its basically intuitive. Just look at an average line between the current season and career numbers and round towards the career numbers. I really don't see what the value is in it.

 

How is Weeks doing this year, worse than usual. OK, then from now on he will do better but he has been so bad his final line will still be below his average line. How is Braun doing this year, better than usual. OK, then from now on he will do a little worse but has been so good his final line will be above his average line. That is ZIPs.

 

Its quite fine to reference ZIPs, but to present as some almighty end all be all is ridiculous, especially if you look at the actual past performances of ZIPs and you see it is very useful for the group and basically worthless for the individual, and by that I mean it performs equally as well as any person's gut feeling.

 

Once Weeks starts looking like the player he has been in his career then I would trust the ZIPs line a lot more. But ZIPs already assumes he is that same player performing the same way with as much variation in performance as any other 70 game sample in his career. If you watch him hit you know that is not true. Just today, last AB, he was thrown a AAA hanging curveball that he should have crushed. Instead, infield fly. Obviously every player will miss a meatball, but ZIPs just assumes that miss is the same as any of the other infield flys over Weeks career but he is just having an unlucky time when many of them happened to be bunched together. I think he is not playing at the same level that caused him to accumulate his previous stats right now so I dont trust any stat that uses that data until I see some evidence he has become that player again.

 

ZIPs says Weeks is a die who is just rolling a lot of 1s right now. So it says for this set of 500 rolls the average will be lower than 3.5 since we already have all these 1s, but from now on we expect 1s to occur 1/6 of the time. I am saying Weeks has turned into a die with two 1s and 3,4,5,6. Using this model you would not expect the same results. I came to this conclusion by watching Weeks miss mistake pitches and chase bad pitches more than in the past, something ZIPs does not do since it does, infact, consider the players to be robots.

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TURBO Nashville Sounds

TURBO

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Adam McCalvy pointed this out on twitter, but there is Front Row Amy impersonator in her seat today.

 

lol

 

Isn't her 15 minutes of fame about up?

 

Talk about flaunting her stuff and craving attention. I recently saw her new photos she posted on facebook. Borderline porn. As her 15 minutes winds down, she will probably keep cranking up her appropriate levels until she poses nude someplace.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Wow where did this plate discipline by Gomez come from all of a sudden?

 

And he did a nice job of crushing the first 3-0 Wisconsin avenue fastball but laying off the outside one this AB.

 

Just ground out to the right side here Nyjer, Ill take that vs a lefty

 

Edit: or that, way to pull it

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Adam McCalvy pointed this out on twitter, but there is Front Row Amy impersonator in her seat today.

 

lol

 

Isn't her 15 minutes of fame about up?

 

Talk about flaunting her stuff and craving attention. I recently saw her new photos she posted on facebook. Borderline porn. As her 15 minutes winds down, she will probably keep cranking up her appropriate levels until she poses nude someplace.

 

Playboy's alltime best seller: Milwaukee edition

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TURBO Nashville Sounds

TURBO

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How many times this season have we seen base running mistakes based on the fact that players think there are 2 outs when there is only one?

 

Man.............................when my players ever did that, it was the last time they did that!

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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TURBO Nashville Sounds

TURBO

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Adam McCalvy pointed this out on twitter, but there is Front Row Amy impersonator in her seat today.

 

lol

 

Isn't her 15 minutes of fame about up?

 

Talk about flaunting her stuff and craving attention. I recently saw her new photos she posted on facebook. Borderline porn. As her 15 minutes winds down, she will probably keep cranking up her appropriate levels until she poses nude someplace.

 

Playboy's alltime best seller: Milwaukee edition

 

Seriously, I can see her headed in that direction, she craves the attention so badly...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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TURBO Nashville Sounds

TURBO

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How many times this year has a brewer player forgot how many outs there were?

 

No excuse for that to keep happening.......

 

Exactly, and I said the same thing 2 posts up ^ lol

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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