2012-06-20 Blue Jays (Carreno) at Brewers (Gallardo), 1:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 8-3]

[pretendastronaut]

[igt-2012][game-setup][logo]http://dl.dropbox.com/u/20589901/BrewerFan/2012/logos/bluejays.png[/logo][game-info][h1]June 20 | 1:10 P.M.[/h1][h2]Blue Jays (35-33) | Brewers (31-37)[/h2][h3]FSWI | MLBN | WTMJ 620[/h3][/game-info][logo]http://dl.dropbox.com/u/20589901/BrewerFan/2012/logos/brewers.png[/logo][/game-setup][pitching-photos]http://dl.dropbox.com/u/20589901/BrewerFan/2012/pitchers/bluejays/carreno-01.jpghttp://dl.dropbox.com/u/20589901/BrewerFan/2012/pitchers/brewers/gallardo-14.jpg[/pitching-photos][game-matchup][divclass=away][h2]0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP[/h2][h3]Versus Brewers | Game Log[/h3][h3]Called up from Triple-A Las Vegas for the start, Carreno has appeared in five games for Toronto this season (one start) and is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA (six earned runs in 12 innings).[/h3][/divclass][divclass=home][h2]5-5, 4.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP[/h2][h3]Versus Blue Jays | Game Log[/h3][h3]Gallardo put together his eighth quality start in his last nine outings on Friday against the Twins, allowing three runs on eight hits over six innings. Manager Ron Roenicke calling it one of his best games of the season.[/h3][/divclass][starting-lineup][divclass=away]

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1. CF Gomez
   
2. RF Morgan
   
3. LF Braun
   
4. 3B Ramirez
   
5. 1B Hart
   
6. 2B Weeks
   
7. SS Ransom
   
8. C Maldonado
   
9. P Gallardo

[/divclass][/starting-lineup][/game-matchup][game-links][h3][chat]BrewerFan Chat[/chat] | MLB Gameday[/h3][/game-links][/igt-2012]

[Funketown]

I can't wait to watch Gomez lead off! His speed ensures we'll score many runs today! Makin' things happen!!!

[3and2Fastball]

Is Gallardo pitching on short rest in this game?. I though Fiers was up next in the rotation.

 

And if so, what in the world are the Brewers thinking in having Gallardo pitch on short rest? That is a risky move to make in this garbage dump of a season.

[owbc]

Gallardo is pitching on 4 days rest like usual. Fiers is after Gallardo.

[3and2Fastball]

Gallardo is pitching on 4 days rest like usual. Fiers is after Gallardo.

 

OK thank you.

[rluzinski]

I can't wait to watch Gomez lead off! His speed ensures we'll score many runs today! Makin' things happen!!!

This is a valid reason for thinking RR does not know what he's doing. Even if we assume Gomez has to start against a righty (and unless Aoki and Green are not available, he doesn't), it is indefensible to have him lead off. Sub. 300 career obp and he doesnt even have the platoon advantage. YIKES.

[topper09er]

Well the 3 biggest problems with the team, Weeks, KRod and Axford, are all past all-stars (counting Ax's 2011 as an all-star type season) so in that sense there is still hope things can get turned this season. In reality however, its been 68 games in and they 3 still look pretty terrible. My goal is .500 by the all-star break so lets start with a series win, especially with another journeyman type starter for the Jays.

[rluzinski]

Well the 3 biggest problems with the team, Weeks, KRod and Axford, are all past all-stars (counting Ax's 2011 as an all-star type season) so in that sense there is still hope things can get turned this season. In reality however, its been 68 games in and they 3 still look pretty terrible. My goal is .500 by the all-star break so lets start with a series win, especially with another journeyman type starter for the Jays.

 

Weeks, since May 30th: 79 PA, .266/.392/.344/.736

 

You can argue that the old Weeks is still MIA (really high walk rate, little power) but that is actually really good production from a second basemen.

 

Also, 68 games is a pretty small sample for anyone and a very small sample for reliever. I am not happy with Afxord's performance in his 27 innings this year but I trust his updated ZiPS projection (3.23 ERA) a lot more than just assuming he will continue to struggle.

[GormanHarvey]

Well Yo, all you have to do is toss a CG and we should win...

[topper09er]

Well the 3 biggest problems with the team, Weeks, KRod and Axford, are all past all-stars (counting Ax's 2011 as an all-star type season) so in that sense there is still hope things can get turned this season. In reality however, its been 68 games in and they 3 still look pretty terrible. My goal is .500 by the all-star break so lets start with a series win, especially with another journeyman type starter for the Jays.

 

Weeks, since May 30th: 79 PA, .266/.392/.344/.736

 

You can argue that the old Weeks is still MIA (really high walk rate, little power) but that is actually really good production from a second basemen.

 

Also, 68 games is a pretty small sample for anyone and a very small sample for reliever. I am not happy with Afxord's performance in his 27 innings this year but I trust his updated ZiPS projection (3.23 ERA) a lot more than just assuming he will continue to struggle.

 

I dont care about sample size, we dont need anymore time to see things "even" for these guys. Axford is not sucking because of bad luck due to a high BABIP or HR/FB. He is sucking because he is cannot throw quality strikes with any of his pitches. He needs to fix this

 

Same with Weeks, he is not going through a rough patch of line drive outs. He is striking out a ton and not driving the ball at all. What did Week's ZIPs say on May 1? I would guess it would not have him entering today hitting .184. Statistics predict the group, not the individual. Maybe all league-wide ZIPS end up being pretty good but I dont put much stock into it for any individual player. Half the players outperform their ZIPs and half underperform.

[owbc]

Well the 3 biggest problems with the team, Weeks, KRod and Axford, are all past all-stars (counting Ax's 2011 as an all-star type season) so in that sense there is still hope things can get turned this season. In reality however, its been 68 games in and those 3 still look pretty terrible.

 

That's the sad part isn't it? All those injuries and they have still managed to piece together decent production at most positions. After the Lucroy injury I thought that was the end, but it's clearly not the case. The team's biggest weakness is the bullpen, which also happens to be injury-free. And the funny thing is that bullpen help is one of the easiest things to get at the trade deadline.

 

But on the other hand there are 9 teams fighting for those 2 wild card spots and the Brewers are in 9th place out of those teams. All of them are just about equally mediocre. All of them will be competing for those same trade pieces. So this team needs to give us a compelling reason why this season is worth saving in the next few weeks. We've seen signs of it, but they haven't put it all together.

[topper09er]

Well Yo, all you have to do is toss a CG and we should win...

 

Right now we are deep enough in the season to stretch out the pitchers. We need to get rid of the starter go 7 - KRod - Ax mentality. We need to change it to starter goes as long as possible

[Baldkin]

Yep, 95 degrees outside, c'mon Yo, you're good for 150 pitches or so.

[GormanHarvey]

Can somebody knock that guy down already?!

[fondybrewfan]

Yo will be lucky to get through 6; after all he feels the need to walk atleast 3-4 guys every game. The guy seems deathly afraid of contact; he tries to paint way to much

[owbc]

Nice to see Hart go the other way. Ball carrying well again today.

[GormanHarvey]

Attaboy Corey! Go back to back Rick

[topper09er]

Hart is only 4 HRs off the NL lead, held by Braun and Beltran. Not bad.

[rluzinski]

Well the 3 biggest problems with the team, Weeks, KRod and Axford, are all past all-stars (counting Ax's 2011 as an all-star type season) so in that sense there is still hope things can get turned this season. In reality however, its been 68 games in and they 3 still look pretty terrible. My goal is .500 by the all-star break so lets start with a series win, especially with another journeyman type starter for the Jays.

 

Weeks, since May 30th: 79 PA, .266/.392/.344/.736

 

You can argue that the old Weeks is still MIA (really high walk rate, little power) but that is actually really good production from a second basemen.

 

Also, 68 games is a pretty small sample for anyone and a very small sample for reliever. I am not happy with Afxord's performance in his 27 innings this year but I trust his updated ZiPS projection (3.23 ERA) a lot more than just assuming he will continue to struggle.

 

I dont care about sample size, we dont need anymore time to see things "even" for these guys. Axford is not sucking because of bad luck due to a high BABIP or HR/FB. He is sucking because he is cannot throw quality strikes with any of his pitches. He needs to fix this

 

Same with Weeks, he is not going through a rough patch of line drive outs. He is striking out a ton and not driving the ball at all. What did Week's ZIPs say on May 1? I would guess it would not have him entering today hitting .184. Statistics predict the group, not the individual. Maybe all league-wide ZIPS end up being pretty good but I dont put much stock into it for any individual player. Half the players outperform their ZIPs and half underperform.

 

Your argument is incompletely illogical. Yes, it is incredibly difficult to project the individual player. We both agree on that. But in the same breath, you are offering up your own projection for these players. You are projecting future performance by assuming that players will continue to perform exactly how they have been in the current season. You are implying that will result in a more accurate projection than one that also considers production outside the current season.

 

If you think you can predict future performance better than statistics methods can, start a blog and prove it. Hell, sell your insights to gamblers and people who play fantasy baseball. Otherwise, you are just another baseball fan convinced that they know something they don't.

[GormanHarvey]

Maldy smash!!

[topper09er]

Your argument is incompletely illogical. Yes, it is incredibly difficult to project the individual player. We both agree on that. But in the same breath, you are offering up your own projection for these players. You are projecting future performance by assuming that players will continue to perform exactly how they have been in the current season. You are implying that will result in a more accurate projection than one that also considers production outside the current season.

 

If you think you can predict future performance better than statistics methods can, start a blog and prove it. Hell, sell your insights to gamblers and people who play fantasy baseball. Otherwise, you are just another baseball fan convinced that they know something they don't.

 

I think you are convinced statistics tell you things they do not. Baseball players are not random independent variables. I also made no prediction whatsoever about how long if ever it will take Weeks, KRod and Ax to turn it around. I did say that based on previous seasons we can still be optimistic they will turn it around. So I did take things into consideration beyond their dreadful current seasons. I am basically waiting for Ax to show he can throw his curve for a strike behind in the count, or Weeks can lay of the low-outside slider and or drive it to right field. When those things start to happen on a consistent basis things may turn around for us. I made prediction at all about when that will happen.

 

I then said I really dont care about anyone's ZIPs because the only things I know to be true about ZIPs is that half the league outperforms it and half the league underperforms it and no one knows who is who.

[ninja33]

also, weeks batted ball profile this season is strikingly similar to his career numbers, outside of 1 or 2 more infield fly balls than normal. That hasn't been the case all season, and likely shows that he's making better contact (when he does, the K rate is still too high). That is backed up by his solid numbers over the past 3 weeks or so that rluz posted before. Hopefully some of his line drives start finding the gaps so he can get that slugging up.

[GormanHarvey]

CarGo!!

[owbc]

The Brewers are showing the Jays how it's done today!

[ninja33]

i wish all these homeruns could make me feel comfortable. but they don't.

 

hold that lead yo.