2013 & Beyond?

[pacopete4]

So to go off of the post topic about "Wasting Money" I wanted to create a thread about salaries and how they affect the Brewers going forward. I hope this is in the correct category. (I don't want to make anyone mad) I love looking at how the team breaks down contracts and what they possibly can afford and what not. Here is the players under contract for next season (2013).

 

Starting Lineup Salary 2013:

Ryan Braun- LF ($8.5M)

Norichka Aoki- CF/RF ($1.25M)

Corey Hart- RF/1B ($10M)

Rickie Weeks- 2B ($10M)

Aramis Ramirez- 3B ($10M)

Jonathan Lucroy- C ($1.9M)

Alex Gonzalez- SS ($4M)

TOTAL(7 players): $45.65 Million

 

The Rest:

Mat Gamel- 1B ($480K)

Taylor Green IFUtil ($480K)

Martin Maldonado- C ($480K)

TOTAL: $1.44M

 

Other Missing Players:

CF: Schaffer- $480K, Gomez- $2M+(arby)

SS/Util: League minimum guy or minor league guy- $480K

TOTAL: $960K

 

GRAND TOTAL FOR 12 Players for 2013: $48.05 Million

[pacopete4]

Roughly $50 million is going to be spent on our lineup and bench next season. What can we do with another $50 million(if Mark will allow us to be at $100 million again) on our pitching staff?

 

Our pitching staff really only accounts for $9 million because most guys are free agents next season. ($7.75 to Gallardo)

 

If you toss in $20-25 million to Greinke, can they fill out their rotation and bullpen (along with signing Axford) and still keep it at or below $100 million? I think it's possible if they are creative in going about it.

[Baldkin]

Gonzalez's deal is not guaranteed, and as a 36 year old having suffered a major knee injury most of who's value is tied to his ability to move quickly laterally on defense... I doubt he'll be back.

 

Here's a solid list for 2013 and beyond:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz1FL3X6KldYXIoGOHXpv6A&output=html

 

Every guy in Arb will get some sort of raise.

[craigharmann]

Well, a Greinke, Yo, Thornburg, Wolf and Fiers rotation looks a whole lot better than a Yo, Wolf, Thornburg, Fiers, Estrada rotation, doesn't it? I would say give the best offer possible to Greinke without breaking the bank, and fill in with younger guys.

[pacopete4]

No way Wolf is around next season. Not good enough to pay $10 mil.

[TURBO]

Gonzalez and Wolf are gone, however, if Wolf continues to look good from here on out, you can bet they will try and get him back. Put the Wolf money into Greinke please, and save us from another OLD GUY Letdown...

[pacopete4]

No one gives Gonzalez a chance to comeback? Is there any FA to be at that position?

[TURBO]

I only wish Scooter could play SS...

 

Gonzalez, being 36 years old, should only be looked at as a back-up SS in the future... If we are banking on that type of player to be our everyday SS, we are in for some hard times at that position once again.

 

No way he can ever get another 4 million dollar contract at 37 years old, not to mention, coming back from major surgery at that age isn't a given.

[pacopete4]

Ya Scooter is an interesting player. What do we do with him? Weeks isn't going anywhere.

[Dollarbill13]

No way Wolf is around next season. Not good enough to pay $10 mil.

 

Especially since there's a glut of starting pitching available in free agency this offseason, including severall 2/3/4 starters. More than likely, Doug will pick up one of those guys. Hopefully, given the excessive supply on the market, he'll be able to scoop someone up for a reasonable price.

[pacopete4]

Anabal Sanchez is a guy that intrigues me.

[RockCoCougars]

This is precisely why I feel that Greinke can be signed. There is roughly $35-40 million opening up in the payroll for next season. Where could it be better spent? Give Greinke about what Cain got, spend a bit on a SS and maybe a cheap LH 1B/OF on one year deals. Go with Estrada/NRI vet starter and let two of the prospects fill out the rotation. There should be enough left over to keep at least two of Parra/Veras/Loe for the bullpen through arby.

[pacopete4]

Is there a SS or RP worth sending Hart over for? Let Gamel play first, Aoki RF. I like Hart but his contract is almost up, could maybe get something for him now. Unless we play to resign him again and I would only do that as a first basemen

[paul253]

Yeah I see no reason not to give Greinke the money he wants. Let Wolf go. KRod is gone. I'd even consider trading Hart and his $10 milllion salary. My idea would be to move A-Ram to first and let Green play third.

 

A lineup would be something like:

1) Aoki

2) Gomez/Schafer

3) Braun

4) Ramirez

5) Lucroy

6) Weeks

7) Green

8) SS

 

Bench would consist of Gamel, Gomez/Schafer, Maldonado, and a couple of utility guys (Jack Wilson? Ryan Theriot? Maysonet?)

 

The rotation would obviously start with Greinke and Gallardo. You'd have to fill in the final three with some combo of Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Estrada and Narveson. Or maybe a back end free agent like Maholm or Sanchez.

[monty57]

Ryan Braun- LF ($8.5M)

Norichka Aoki- CF/RF ($1.25M)

Corey Hart- RF/1B ($10M)

Rickie Weeks- 2B ($10M)

Aramis Ramirez- 3B ($10M)

Jonathan Lucroy- C ($1.9M)

Alex Gonzalez- SS ($4M)

TOTAL(7 players): $45.65 Million

 

I don't believe Gonzalez's contract is guaranteed unless he makes a certain number of starts (which of course he won't). However, you've missed Gallardo, who will make $7.75MM and Wolf's buyout of $1.5MM which is part of the "guaranteed" money for 2013 if his option isn't exercised. I figure committed money to be at $50.9MM for seven players plus Wolf's buyout.

 

I understand that we're getting some new money from the TV deal, but we will also likely see a drop in attendance after this season. In an "all in" year, we were budgeted for around a $90MM payroll, but Mark A allowed it to push around $100MM after K-Rod accepted arby because he wanted to sign Ramirez. I would expect payroll for 2013 (not an "all in" year) to be in the $80-90MM range. It will probably be less if we allow Greinke and Marcum (assuming healthy) to play to free agency, as we will have to funnel money to the "draft reserve" to sign the extra draft picks we'll receive.

 

Forgetting the draft reserve, and giving ourselves the most "wiggle room" possible, let's say we have $90MM to play with. With $50.9MM eaten up in seven players, that leaves us $39.1MM for the remaining 18 players, or $2.17MM average per player.

 

Axford is hitting arby, and even with some blowups this year he'll get a big raise, so let's say $2MM. Gomez and Morgan are in arby. I don't know what will become of them, but they'd probably earn around $2.5MM for Gomez and $3MM for Morgan. Unless he's traded, Parra will be back for his final arby year at around $2MM. Kottaras and Ishikawa are both first-year-arby-eligible and would probably get around $1MM. Narveson is our final arby eligible guy, and he's a big question mark... do we want to risk paying $1MM or so to a guy coming off a shoulder injury?

 

If we offered arby to all of them, that would be around $12.5MM for another seven guys, putting us at 14 players for $63.4MM, leaving us $26.6MM for eleven guys or an average of $2.42MM each. If we don't offer to all of them, we'll need to find talent somewhere, so even a replacement for Ishikawa will probably be around $1MM. The real way to save money on the guys above would be to trade away Morgan and Gomez and let Schafer man CF, saving around $5MM. I assume Narveson will not be offered arby, and can only hope he proves me wrong, as he was a decent, cheap option for a rotation spot.

 

Now we get to the cheap talent. The guys who can keep the Brewers competitive because they can pay key roles for league minimum salary. We have Gamel, Green, Dillard, Estrada, Fiers, Maldonado, Maysonet, Perez, and Ransom. Not really awe-inspiring. The saving grace here will be if two or three (or four) of our young pitchers make the jump from the minors to the majors for 2013.

 

If we don't "sell" this year, I think the only way Greinke is a possibility is if we keep all of the above pre-arby guys and pick our 3/4/5 starters out of Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Jungman, Nelson, etc. Even if we push the payroll to $100MM, we may be able to afford a Randy Wolf-type for our #3. We would still be a much worse version of this year's team, so I don't think Attanasio would risk losing a bunch of money for a team which could easily end up fighting the Cubs for last place.

 

More realistically, I think we'd go to the free agent market to pick up a pitcher or two for the rotation and several arms for the 'pen. Then we'd spend the rest of our money on another stopgap solution at SS and on the bench.

 

...or, we could make some trades this season to bring in some good pre-arby guys which may allow us to have more money to spend on upgrades elsewhere. If we could trade Greinke, Marcum, Hart, K-Rod, Loe, Vargas, Gomez, Morgan, Parra, etc and bring back some talent in return, we could have a lineup starting with:

 

SP: Gallardo ($7.75), {pitcher from trade - $480k}, {pitcher from trade - $480k}, Fiers/Estrada/Thornburg/Jungman/Nelson, etc - $480x2 = $960k for a total of $9.67MM for rotation

1B: Gamel $480k

2B: Weeks $10M

SS: {From trade} $480k

3B: Ramirez $10M

C: Lucroy $1.9M

OF: Braun $8.5M, Schafer $480k, Aoki $1.25M

 

That would leave us with around $50MM to "play with," which would probably allow us to re-sign Greinke in free agency if that was the path we chose. All we'd need to do is use our significant trading chips and pick up two young SP and a young SS. Maybe it's not as easy as it sounds, but it would sure help the Brewers for 2013 and beyond.

[reillymcshane]

Gonzalez won't be under contract for 2013. His 2013 salary didn't activate without reaching a high number of plate appearances. So he'll be a FA.

 

If he looks okay, the Crew (or any other team) may offer him a low salary with incentives type deal. But the $4+ million deal is gone. If we don't have anyone else available, we could certainly do that. I guess it depend on how his knee is doing. Not something I'd gamble big on.

[pacopete4]

Dbacks may not sign S. Drew, good SS with pop and bats lefty. He'd be intriguing to add to the lineup being that it is so right handed.

[TURBO]

How many games has Ramirez played at 1B in his career? I keep seeing his name tossed around as a possibility of moving to 1B.

[clancyphile]

Hart is also proving to be an option at first... and when Gamel is back..

 

Anyone else wish the NL would get with the times and adopt the DH...

[jerichoholicninja]

Anyone else wish the NL would get with the times and adopt the DH...

 

No. Wishing Doug would get with the times and find players that can play defense.

[nate82]

How many games has Ramirez played at 1B in his career? I keep seeing his name tossed around as a possibility of moving to 1B.

 

Does that really matter? If Ramirez can play 3B I am sure he can handle 1B fine. Why does a player have to play at a position especially one where it is not all that difficult to play have to play at that position at some point in their career in order to be looked at to play there?

 

I would get this if it would be a difficult position like catcher or moving someone from 3B to 2B but 1B? Come on that is the easiest position in baseball to play next to the DH. There have been plenty of players that have transitioned from OF to 1B or from any other position to 1B without a problem and they never played the position before. I don't see any problem with moving Ramirez to 1B to finish out his contract and I don't see him not playing the position ever being a problem at all.