2012 Brett Lawrie WAR.... How?

[rluzinski]

He is going to be a very good player but he is nowhere what his WAR says.

 

WAR isn't supposed to tell you that. Which is one of my major problems with it. It's supposed to tell you how well he did over a certain period of time not how good he is as a player.

 

Every stat gets abused by people who don't know how to use them. Some still misuse BA all the time ("He's batting .300, he's a great hitter!"). Do you have a problem with BA as a result as well?

 

Your concerns with how people misuse WAR should be kept separate from your criticisms of how WAR is constructed. Personally, I think the foundation of WAR is solid. If we can agree on that, then we can argue about the pros and cons of the particulars. I'm glad there are two popular websites with different implementations of WAR (Fangraphs and BR.com). It's an ongoing science experiment.

[Thurston Fluff]

Do you have a problem with BA as a result as well?

 

I have a problem with using it to say someone is a great hitter because I define a great hitter as someone who does more than just get base hits. I don't have a problem using it to show someone can get hits 30% of the time. Frankly I think saying someone gets hits at such and such a rate pretty insignificant overall so I don't have much use for BA. Which, not coincidentally, is the same argument I make with WAR.

Your concerns with how people misuse WAR should be kept separate from your criticisms of how WAR is constructed.

 

It is one of two arguments I make in criticizing WAR. I do keep both of them separate. Which is why I only addressed the misuse part in my last post. It was directly related to a misuse of it.

Personally, I think the foundation of WAR is solid. If we can agree on that, then we can argue about the pros and cons of the particulars.

 

We most certainly do not agree on how solid it's foundation is. I think it is fatally flawed and have stated my reasons many times. Nobody has yet given me any reason what so ever to dissuade me from that thought. You cannot use equally weighted measurements of unequal quantities and think it has any relationship to reality. Furthermore you cannot use measurements of questionable accuracy and assume accurate results. One would think Lawrie's WAR is evidence enough of that.

I'm glad there are two popular websites with different implementations of WAR (Fangraphs and BR.com). It's an ongoing science experiment.

 

I absolutely agree on this. I do not have a problem with the ongoing experiment. Only the acceptance of any current incarnation of it's current results as accurate.

[tstads20]

Do you have a problem with BA as a result as well?

 

I have a problem with using it to say someone is a great hitter because I define a great hitter as someone who does more than just get base hits. I don't have a problem using it to show someone can get hits 30% of the time. Frankly I think saying someone gets hits at such and such a rate pretty insignificant overall so I don't have much use for BA. Which, not coincidentally, is the same argument I make with WAR.

Your concerns with how people misuse WAR should be kept separate from your criticisms of how WAR is constructed.

 

It is one of two arguments I make in criticizing WAR. I do keep both of them separate. Which is why I only addressed the misuse part in my last post. It was directly related to a misuse of it.

Personally, I think the foundation of WAR is solid. If we can agree on that, then we can argue about the pros and cons of the particulars.

 

We most certainly do not agree on how solid it's foundation is. I think it is fatally flawed and have stated my reasons many times. Nobody has yet given me any reason what so ever to dissuade me from that thought. You cannot use equally weighted measurements of unequal quantities and think it has any relationship to reality. Furthermore you cannot use measurements of questionable accuracy and assume accurate results. One would think Lawrie's WAR is evidence enough of that.

I'm glad there are two popular websites with different implementations of WAR (Fangraphs and BR.com). It's an ongoing science experiment.

 

I absolutely agree on this. I do not have a problem with the ongoing experiment. Only the acceptance of any current incarnation of it's current results as accurate.

 

Right. The major issue with WAR (particularly by Fangraphs) is its major inclusion of defensive statistics. UZR is effective but flawed, it's skewing the WAR values of guys like Carlos Ruiz, who look way more value in the midst of a hot streak because of the position he plays.

 

Of course, reading WAR midseason will show some inconsistent results. That's why I shake my head when I see Ruiz rated higher in value than Andrew McCutchen.

 

Like you said, it's how you read and interpret them in context. Defense is not overrated, but its overvalued I think. Case in point: Gerardo Parra. Great defense in LF, pretty good hitter for what he brings. But who in the world would take him over Braun? Anyone? The 2011 Brewers are case in point. Very good offensive club, very good pitching, couldn't really field all that great, and came up two wins short of the World Series.

[Baldkin]

You cannot use equally weighted measurements of unequal quantities and think it has any relationship to reality. Furthermore you cannot use measurements of questionable accuracy and assume accurate results. One would think Lawrie's WAR is evidence enough of that.

 

1) Can you explain the bolded point? It makes absolutely no sense to me out of context.

 

2) Everyone worth their salt says you need 3 seasons of defensive data for it to be accurate & that would then extrapolate into an accurate WAR calculation. Why do you then assume half a season of WAR giving a wonky result makes it irrelevant?

[ninja33]

 

Right. The major issue with WAR (particularly by Fangraphs) is its major inclusion of defensive statistics. UZR is effective but flawed, it's skewing the WAR values of guys like Carlos Ruiz, who look way more value in the midst of a hot streak because of the position he plays.

 

Of course, reading WAR midseason will show some inconsistent results. That's why I shake my head when I see Ruiz rated higher in value than Andrew McCutchen.

 

Like you said, it's how you read and interpret them in context. Defense is not overrated, but its overvalued I think. Case in point: Gerardo Parra. Great defense in LF, pretty good hitter for what he brings. But who in the world would take him over Braun? Anyone? The 2011 Brewers are case in point. Very good offensive club, very good pitching, couldn't really field all that great, and came up two wins short of the World Series.

 

I don't think your Carlos Ruiz example is very good:

 

a) I don't believe fangraphs uses UZR for catchers. I am not sure how they come up with the "fielding" portion of their WAR value for catchers, but however they do it is lower than McCutchen's (2.2 vs 2.0) so that is not why he is rated higher.

b) I think you're thinking of their positional adjustments, which I do agree can be a little bit extreme. Ruiz gets more credit for being a catcher, because there's less talent at that position than CF (or something along those lines)

c) But the main reason Carlos Ruiz is rated so high is because he is absolutely mashing the ball. He has a line of .354/.416/.566. ALL of those numbers are better than McCutchen's. His wOBA (Fangraphs catch-all batting statistic which I believe is used to calculate WAR) is currently tied for 7th in the major leagues. He's had a fantastic season hitting the ball, thats the main reason his WAR is so high.

 

All of that said, I would obviously rather have McCutchen on my team. But based on their performances so far this season, Ruiz has been a better player. His WAR reflects that.

[jjfanec]

I take back everything I said about Lawrie if he decides to save his rediscovered power for the next series he plays

[jjfanec]

I saw this article and remembered this thread from a while back. I dont have Insider but the preview said the reason for Lawrie's WAR is shifts.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story?id=8179711&_slug_=the-toronto-blue-jays-progressive-approaches-defensive-shift-mlb&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fstory%3fid%3d8179711%26_slug_%3dthe-toronto-blue-jays-progressive-approaches-defensive-shift-mlb

[Baldkin]

They actually edited their calculations, and removed shifting data from them because when the Jays shift vs LHB, instead of doing what most teams do (3B playing where the SS does), Lawrie goes and plays where the 2B normally would, so he was getting huge credit for making those plays which no other 3B ever had.

[jjfanec]

They actually edited their calculations, and removed shifting data from them because when the Jays shift vs LHB, instead of doing what most teams do (3B playing where the SS does), Lawrie goes and plays where the 2B normally would, so he was getting huge credit for making those plays which no other 3B ever had.

 

So what did that do to his WAR? Where does he sit now compared to other 3B?