Nyjer Morgan - Is it Time to Move On?

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure people understand what's being suggested here?

 

First, isn't every team perpetually rebuilding because players age? It's not like we can just build up a team and keep that team forever. How does selling a completely redundant piece in Morgan equal constant rebuilding? How does not being able to resign Greinke equal constant rebuilding?

 

The point many are trying to make is that if we're going to lose the players to FA agency anyway, what's the best possible return? Personally I'll always take top prospects over draft picks because a draft pick's value is nearly impossible to define and they are closer to contributing to MLB. I'd much rather acquire a player who is 1 or 2 years away than a player who is 4 years away.

 

Last year there was much discussion that Jungmann would be able to help the rotation if he signed right away, mostly because that's exactly what Melvin said during an interview. That's proven to be completely untrue, he's doing fine in A+ but he's not laying waste to the league. He may get a promotion to AA here at some point but I'm guessing he won't be ready for MLB until sometime in 2013 or 2014 and he was the 12th overall pick in the draft. I would much rather take a prospect like Danny Hultzen today than wait and try to draft him in 2013 and have him ready by 2015, that's a college type arm, high school players are much farther away... I don't mean to suggest that Hultzen would actually be available for trade I'm saying that he's your best case college arm in a typical draft, but the problem is that we have to be able to draft in the top 5 or maybe at worst the top 10 to get that kind of talent anyway. We won't draft that high playing .500 baseball, so that type of talent won't be available to us in the draft if we hang around trying to make a run. High School kids are typically going to be 4-5 years away so any HS pitcher we'd draft in 2013 wouldn't be available until 2018 and while you certainly can acquire better talent that you let you go in that scenario, there is also no immediate help to solve the team's pitching issues for 2013.

 

I understand that many people would like to watch the best possible baseball throughout the entire season or for as long as possible, but again the new CBA has completely changed the rental player market. To maximize the return and do what's best for the organization sometimes it will require us to punt early on a season to be better in the following years. That's the idea that's being pushed here, and there's simply no way that draft picks are as valuable as prospects when the discussion is how to cheaply replace talent lost for 2013 and 2014. So if you're bound to lose a player regardless at the end season the question becomes can you get back more in a trade than the value of those draft picks? The answer depends entirely on the market for a particular player there is no right and wrong for discussion sake, because we don't know what teams would be willing to offer.

 

Unfortunately Melvin isn't the guy who I'd want to be making decisions about what to acquire for Greinke or any MLB player on the roster so the idea worries me a little bit as I'm afraid he'd be looking to get players that are already in MLB and I don't see many teams being willing to trade young pitching anymore. However the theory of looking to acquire more value than would be available through the draft is sound.

[paul253]

And they swept the Dodgers on the road where they had previously only lost a total of 5 games? Not to mention without the backend of our all-star pen blowing up, we could have easily swept the Royals and our starting pitching is pitching exceptionally well.

 

o a 9 game streak in the first half of the season is going to make your decision?

 

No I'm not making my decision based on 9 games. My decision has already mostly been made by the first 66 games of the year. After having seen them go .500 against four of the worst teams in all of baseball, I was thinking maybe if they had shown some life against some of the better teams and gained ground on the first place team I might be able to be talked off the ledge a bit. You, on the other hand, seem to be using one 4 game series as your evidence that they could be a magical team while failing to acknowledge that outside of that 4 game sweep they are 10 games under .500

 

And as far as this "all-star pen" blowing up. This isn't last year. I don't know what happened to them but they obviously aren't performing at the level they should be. Instead of taking it for what it is you just go back to what it could be. That is the attitude I was referring to. "Oh if Axford K-Rod, Weeks, Ramirez, and Morgan all start playing better we'll be fine". I like to focus less on what they are capable of doing and more on what they are actually doing.

Yeah, and did the Cards "mortgage," their future last year with their trade deadline trades

 

You are comparing apples to oranges. The Cards didn't hold onto valuable upcoming free agents with the insane idea of making the playoffs when they were 6 games under .500 and in 4th place.

Nobody's saying trade Thornburg for a 1 year rental, so lets chill on the mortgaging of anything.

Holding onto your best trade chip, someone that should bring back another team's top prospect at minimum, and then letting him walk for nothing more than 2 draft picks, all because you have some idea of them making a historical comeback (Colorado) or another team having a historical meltdown (Atlanta) qualifies as mortgaging your future in my opinion.

 

But as long as bring up the name if not Thornburg who are you going to trade? Who is left? This isn't like last year where we needed to fix a few minor issues. Unless you plan on making a push for the playoffs with Cody Ransom at shortstop and a bullpen that can't get anyone out you are going to need some major upgrades. Trading Kentrail Davis or Mark Rogers isn't going to net you a whole lot.

We're a team that can easily spend 110-115 next year so all we need is a SS and we were fine with Gonzalez.

How can you say that? We are at about $100 million now, which even Mark A. acknowledged was kind of pushing the limit, and next year we can just automatically assume a 10 or 15 percent payroll increase? In a year when attendance will likely drop? I wouldn't be so sure about that.

 

So we need a serviceable SS, and MAYBE a solid arm out of the pen. Not mortgaging the future.

 

Really? That's all we need? A serviceable shortstop and this is a playoff team? I can at least understand where you are coming from but I don't feel as though you are being realistic. It'd be great if all of a sudden everyone turned things around and started playing as well as they can but it very rarely works that way. Rickie Weeks should be in the minors right now trying to remember how to hit. He looks absolutely lost. I don't see how you can just assume he'll turn it around. Ramirez and Morgan aren't playing at the level they can be. Axford and K-Rod look pedestrian out of the bullpen, a bullpen which by the way only 2 pitchers currently have an ERA under 4. And quite honestly Corey Hart and his .313 OBP could use an improvement as well. Plus, who knows what Lucroy will do after breaking his hand. It may have big affect on his hitting. This team is a lot more than one shortstop away from the playoffs. But again, even assuming you can find a decent shortstop on the trade market, who are you going to give up for him?

[Thurston Fluff]

when all I'm claiming is that the likelihood of us making the playoffs this year is probably not strong enough to make going for it more desirable than setting ourselves up for 2013 and beyond.

 

The season is far from over. In football it would be like giving up on the season at 3-4. Nobody ever suggests that as a time to give up in football. Why is it so easy to do in baseball? I know apples and oranges but the point is teams can and often do produce far different results from one end of the season to the other. Last season St Louis was far worse than Atlanta for the first part of the season. Remember when Houston went from terrible below .500 to playoff team two consecutive years? One of which went to the WS.

How does selling a completely redundant piece in Morgan equal constant rebuilding?

 

How is a player playing the same role on the same team somehow now redundant? He has a similar style as Aoki but they both play side by side not one for the other. To me saying Morgan is redundant because we have similar style players would be like saying we didn't need Prince because he was redundant to Braun.

[reillymcshane]

If Nyjer has a bad/mediocre year, I'd totally let him go in the off season. I love the guy. He's got great energy and brings some attitude (which can be good and bad - but I think the good outweighs the bad with him).

 

But he's not worth the money he'd make in 2013.

 

Not only his batting average declining, so are his extra base hits. The guy has 3 doubles and 2 HR in 35 hits. And he still has an atrocious walk rate. He'll be 32 next month - not old, but not young either (for a baseball player).

 

He makes $2.35 million this year. I'd rather pay Schafer a fraction of that, and let him and Gomez (who we have for one more year) handle CF (with Aoki handling RF and Corey going to 1B).

[adambr2]

I'm not sure people understand what's being suggested here?

 

First, isn't every team perpetually rebuilding because players age? It's not like we can just build up a team and keep that team forever. How does selling a completely redundant piece in Morgan equal constant rebuilding? How does not being able to resign Greinke equal constant rebuilding?

 

The point many are trying to make is that if we're going to lose the players to FA agency anyway, what's the best possible return? Personally I'll always take top prospects over draft picks because a draft pick's value is nearly impossible to define and they are closer to contributing to MLB. I'd much rather acquire a player who is 1 or 2 years away than a player who is 4 years away.

 

Last year there was much discussion that Jungmann would be able to help the rotation if he signed right away, mostly because that's exactly what Melvin said during an interview. That's proven to be completely untrue, he's doing fine in A+ but he's not laying waste to the league. He may get a promotion to AA here at some point but I'm guessing he won't be ready for MLB until sometime in 2013 or 2014 and he was the 12th overall pick in the draft. I would much rather take a prospect like Danny Hultzen today than wait and try to draft him in 2013 and have him ready by 2015, that's a college type arm, high school players are much farther away... I don't mean to suggest that Hultzen would actually be available for trade I'm saying that he's your best case college arm in a typical draft, but the problem is that we have to be able to draft in the top 5 or maybe at worst the top 10 to get that kind of talent anyway. We won't draft that high playing .500 baseball, so that type of talent won't be available to us in the draft if we hang around trying to make a run. High School kids are typically going to be 4-5 years away so any HS pitcher we'd draft in 2013 wouldn't be available until 2018 and while you certainly can acquire better talent that you let you go in that scenario, there is also no immediate help to solve the team's pitching issues for 2013.

 

I understand that many people would like to watch the best possible baseball throughout the entire season or for as long as possible, but again the new CBA has completely changed the rental player market. To maximize the return and do what's best for the organization sometimes it will require us to punt early on a season to be better in the following years. That's the idea that's being pushed here, and there's simply no way that draft picks are as valuable as prospects when the discussion is how to cheaply replace talent lost for 2013 and 2014. So if you're bound to lose a player regardless at the end season the question becomes can you get back more in a trade than the value of those draft picks? The answer depends entirely on the market for a particular player there is no right and wrong for discussion sake, because we don't know what teams would be willing to offer.

 

Unfortunately Melvin isn't the guy who I'd want to be making decisions about what to acquire for Greinke or any MLB player on the roster so the idea worries me a little bit as I'm afraid he'd be looking to get players that are already in MLB and I don't see many teams being willing to trade young pitching anymore. However the theory of looking to acquire more value than would be available through the draft is sound.

 

Thank you. This is exactly what I am trying to say, I don't know what is so controversial about it. This is based on a few premises:

 

1) Our chances of making the playoffs this year are very slim, probably less than 10%. We are not better than the Reds, so I don't know why it's so hard to believe that making up 8.5 games on the Reds throughout the rest of the season is an unlikely scenario.

 

2) We are going to be facing an uncertain future in 2013. We currently have one guaranteed returning starter in Gallardo. If we can't re-sign Greinke, and it doesn't look like we will be able to, 2013 may be a rebuilding season. If there is a short rebuilding process, in order to make it easier, it would be better to maximize return on pieces that we are very unlikely to keep anyway. Even if you want to re-sign Greinke, and I do, there is no prohibition on us trading him in a season if we won't make the playoffs anyway, and attempting to sign him again in the offseason.

 

No one is suggesting blowing up the team. And certainly no one is suggesting having an auction and just selling off our best pieces to the highest bidder, that's not what it's about. If you can't get any bites on Greinke and Marcum that definitively outweigh the value of the potential draft picks, then don't do it.

 

But I'd like the brass to be realistic about the direction and future of this team, not just blindly optimistic to the point that harms us next year. I keep hearing that if we rattle off 6 in a row or 8 in a row, we're right back in it. Sure, that might be true. Have you seen anything that makes you think that's in the cards this year? Do you think this team is capable of a 21-7 August like the 2011 team did?

[TooLiveBrew]

Last year there was much discussion that Jungmann would be able to help the rotation if he signed right away, mostly because that's exactly what Melvin said during an interview.

I don't have the link to back up what I'm saying here, but I absolutely remember that comment from Melvin being waaaay over-interpreted. Iirc the answer he gave clearly sounded like an answer to the question, 'Is there any chance Jungmann could help next season?'... and answered that yeah, technically he supposed there was a chance. It certainly wasn't an answer where DM was publicizing that he expected Jungmann to reach the bigs anytime soon... more of just answering a hypothetical.

 

I realize that has nothing to do with Morgan, but I don't want this comment I quoted from you to turn into the new 'The Giants offered Cain for Hart & DM passed!'

[DHonks]

Reillymcshane, I agree on letting Morgan go in the off-season. I'd like to see us let him and Gomez walk since both will be overpriced

 

And Adam, I can't say the Reds are clearly better. They've beaten up on the East, while we have done fine against the West. Our NL Central records are similar. In our head-to-head series we were out-scored 11-10. We have 12 head-to-head games remaining, although 9 are on the road. With our pitching coming around and offense improving, I would expect us to go 4-5 in those games. The big thing is me need to take care of business vs the Astros, Cubs, Pirates, and the NL East

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not sure how you can hold the NL East & NL West in the same regard, top to bottom.

[DHonks]

I was analyzing that we haven't played the East and they haven't played the West. Can't really compare common opponents because of that. But both of us have done fine out of division.

[adambr2]

And just to clarify what I've been saying, I don't think all hope is lost, I just think too unlikely to make standing pat or buying worthwhile.

 

Yes Weeks could come around, Lucroy is coming back, and the bullpen should pitch better. But 8.5 games against the Reds is a lot to make up.

 

Come to think of it, I'm kind of surprised to see but they are somehow only 5 GB of the Wild Card. So I do understand that they're still within distance enough to make some feel that they should go for it. If so, they need to play a lot better, obviously.

[monty57]

If there was no such thing as free agency and we didn't have to worry about losing players, then I would be shouting that this team still has a chance and not to give up.

 

There is free agency and we are losing a lot of players at the end of the year, so that slight chance that we could make a "miracle run" for the playoffs is outweighed in my mind by the reality that if we don't do something to help future Brewer teams, those future Brewers teams could be pretty bad. The players we're losing could be used to help bring back some talent which could help make these future teams better.

 

That, and that alone is why people are saying "sell." Not because they are unaware of the fact that teams have made "miracle runs" in the past.

[HiAndTight]

No, Fan, I have not.

 

But I'm not going to re-hash all that and dive into every post just to prove a point.

 

Also, we were never 8 1/2 out last year. It's not impossible, but it's a big hole, and things have to go right. I don't recall calls for selling when we were 13-19 last year.

 

I don't think I'm being unreasonable here. We are 6 games under .500. I said after the Dodger sweep that the next 15 games should decide our direction -- that we had a really easy stretch coming up, we had a chance to make hay and rise to the occasion, and if we could go 10-5, we would be back to .500 and right back in it. Well, we didn't go 10-5, we didn't get back to .500, we didn't rise to the occasion, we played like a mediocre team and went 7-8 over that stretch and made the Dodger sweep look like a fluke. I thought the season might be turning around after the Dodger series, but there was absolutely nothing I saw from this team the last 15 games since then to make me think they're playoff caliber.

 

But the bigger issue is the position we're in. At this point, this pitching staff is being gutted next year. It's a pretty uncertain future right now, and there are certain actions that should be taken to ensure this is a smooth transition where we are able to remain competitive, and not a painful rebuilding process. I am not, nor have I ever said trade anyone for the sake of doing so, but it would be negligent of Melvin not to consider the opportunity if such an offer was presented.

 

As far as your infield answers, I'm more referring to the left side of the infield. Ramirez is fine for now, though at a high price tag, but I have not seen any indication that the organization has any belief that Taylor Green is the 3B of the future. SS is a much larger concern.

 

And both of you are ignoring that I indicated that if we re-signed Greinke, I might feel differently. At this point I think there's about a 5% chance that they re-sign Greinke before he hits free agency and 20% at best of bringing him back -- and that will certainly require overpaying after the Cain deal.

 

 

 

I just believe it is too early to do so unless you're blown away with an offer, and that offer has to come FROM another team. You can't make it known publicly that you're shopping or you have guys shut down and it destroys the chemistry.

 

Second, I think we should simply give it more time. With 5 playoff slots open and the potential of our starting pitching, potential that's being realized as of late, I see no reason to force the issue before we have to. I would have to agree, if he's offered a deal early for a Profara, Castelllanos/Turner for Axford+ Grienke(and i'd do that for Porfar as well), if we get two start type players who are a year or two from being all-stars and they called you, fine.

 

 

I just don't get the damn need to discuss this. I didn't in April after a rough start, in May aftre a better month annnd now again in Maye when we'er just basically recycling the same threads

[DHonks]

6.5 back now, and 5 games below .500. A big 3 games coming up against the Reds her taking 2/3 would be huge.

[Ennder]

It was certainly a frustrating stretch because they played well enough to gain 3 games on 1st over the past 2 weeks but they blew way too many winnable games so tread water.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wasn't overly optimistic coming into this season, but there's a lot to like. The fact is they are only 6 1/2 back of a Reds team that isn't that good. That is after their bullpen and specifically their closer, frittered away 3 or 4 games over the past 2 weeks. That looked to be the strength of their team prior to the season, and I'm reasonably confident it still can be.

 

The injuries rather than devastating them actually have opened up opportunities and guys have taken advantage of them. Fiers, Maldanado, and Aoki have shown they belong in the big leagues. Hart looks like he's played 1B his entire career, and his move has helped the OF defense. Ramirez is showing he's still has life in his bat. Even Maysonet and Ransom have looked solid defensively and gotten a few hits here and there.

 

If Weeks can turn it around and there's some recent signs he may, and the back end of the pen gets it's act together, they could very well have a run in them.

 

Getting back to the issue in the forum though, that doesn't mean dealing Morgan and replacing him with Schafer is a move strictly for next year either. Same goes for if they dealt Kottaras or found someone to take Wolf.

[DHonks]

Good post johnbriggs12, however, my concern is do we know Schafer can replace Morgan? He's a solid prospect, but probably more in the class of Green and Gamel than Hart, Weeks, etc. There's a chance he could o great, but there's also a chance he doesn't sniff Morgan's performance level. It reminds me of the Hardy/Escobar situation....just because a guy is supposedly big league ready doesn't mean we need to create room for him. We've missed the SS depth ever since Hardy was dealt.

[monty57]

I just don't get the damn need to discuss this. I didn't in April after a rough start, in May aftre a better month annnd now again in Maye when we'er just basically recycling the same threads

 

Then don't discuss it. Some of us realize that there is a good chance that next year's team will be bad and are open to discussing ways to make that situation better. I find it interesting hearing what others feel is the best route to go in center field now and in the future. If that's not your cup of tea, that's fine... start a thread entitled "We have lots of money" or "All we need to do is extend Greinke and our future is fine."

 

Back to the topic of the thread...

 

my concern is do we know Schafer can replace Morgan

 

We don't, and that's why I think it would be good to let him take over Morgan's role this season to "get his feet wet." Our playoff chances are around 10%, so maybe Schafer makes that 9.8% or maybe he makes it 10.2%. Just like Schafer could be bad or good, Morgan has been bad and could continue that or could play better. I don't think replacing him with Schafer is a sure-thing upgrade or downgrade.

 

I like Morgan, but he opens an interesting case this offseason. He will probably make $3MM or so in his final year of arbitration next year. If we don't offer him arby, we lose him and can't even trade him. If we offer him arby and can't trade him, we're stuck with him at $3MM and Schafer will probably be stuck in AAA for another year. I thought it made sense to trade Morgan as soon as Braun was exonerated because I felt at the time that Aoki made Morgan expendable. With the way the season's played out, it seems even more sensible to trade Morgan.

 

Gomez and Morgan will combine for around $5.5MM in salary next year, and Schafer will cost $480k. If he proves he can handle CF, then we could save a lot of money which could be used elsewhere. Schafer could provide a really nice answer for this team, but we need to see what we have in him before we'll know if he is that answer.

[thumperden]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

Playoff odds according to baseball prospectus is 24.8% after yesterday's win. That is 9th place in the N.L. I look up this resource regularly and wanted to add that to the discussion.

[paul253]

It reminds me of the Hardy/Escobar situation....just because a guy is supposedly big league ready doesn't mean we need to create room for him. We've missed the SS depth ever since Hardy was dealt.

 

I think the major difference between this case and this Hardy/Escobar case is that when we traded Hardy we pretty much told Escobar the job was his and we didn't have then, and still don't have now, any depth behind him. In this case, even if we move Morgan, we still have two capable center fielders in Gomez and Aoki. It's not like Schafer is the center fielder no matter what.

 

I'm concerned that Schafer is going to end up in the same boat Gamel and Green have. One time high profile prospects who were never really given a shot early on. If we don't plan on giving Schafer at least a chance to play everyday next season then maybe we should consider trading him. And don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting we trade him. I am suggesting we give him a shot to be the everyday center fielder next season. And that would involve moving Morgan.

[TooLiveBrew]

One thing I don't think has really been discussed in this topic (apologies if my eyes missed it) is how accepting Morgan has been of his role this season. Even very early in the season, before it became an issue that Morgan wasn't really hitting, Nyjer didn't have anything to say about his diminished playing time. I think a lot of veteran players, coming off of a season like Morgan's '11, would've been none to happy to be slipping down the depth chart... and especially behind a guy who'd never even played in MLB in Aoki.

 

Morgan has had a team-first attitude about his role, and has adjusted well enough to it that he's done pretty well at the plate for a guy who's getting very part-time playing time -- since the start of May, he's hit to roughly his career norms. The only way the kind of redundant OF depth the Brewers have can work is if guys are accepting of their roles. And to Nyjer's (& Norichika's... & Carlos's...) credit, he's definitely helping make it work.

[rluzinski]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

Playoff odds according to baseball prospectus is 24.8% after yesterday's win. That is 9th place in the N.L. I look up this resource regularly and wanted to add that to the discussion.

Which means approximately a 12% chance of getting into the "real" playoffs.

[3and2Fastball]

We don't know if Logan Schafer can hit MLB pitching. What we do know is that he is an elite defensive outfielder, and if you believe that Aoki and Gomez can continue hitting at their present levels (I do) then that makes Morgan pretty expendable after this season. Considering that Morgan's trade value is very low I don't really see any reason to move him at the trade deadline, unless he's a "throw-in" on a bigger trade.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think "elite" should be thrown around regarding Schafer's OF defense just yet. "Very good" or "getting 110% out of his skillset", sure. But Carlos Gomez he is not.

[logan82]

Morgan's greatest value right now is holding down younger player's arby clocks. Unless the Brewers are still thinking they can make the playoffs, I doubt Morgan will be around for more than a couple more years with us. He will be a free agent after the 2014 season. If we sell we can be competitive a little sooner but I doubt we will be competitive by 2014 which would be Moragn's last season.

Morgan has had a team-first attitude about his role, and has adjusted well enough to it that he's done pretty well at the plate for a guy who's getting very part-time playing time -- since the start of May, he's hit to roughly his career norms. The only way the kind of redundant OF depth the Brewers have can work is if guys are accepting of their roles. And to Nyjer's (& Norichika's... & Carlos's...) credit, he's definitely helping make it work.

True but Morgan really shouldn't be a full time player. Most of his success last year was because he was protected from LHP as much as possible. Of the three you mentioned only Aoki may be a full time player.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't think "elite" should be thrown around regarding Schafer's OF defense just yet. "Very good" or "getting 110% out of his skillset", sure. But Carlos Gomez he is not.

 

Fair enough, elite was too strong a description. I do think it is safe to say that Schafer is the 2nd best defensive outfielder in the Brewers organization and a pretty big upgrade over Morgan defensively.