Can the Brewers be serious contenders for the division in 2013?

[benji]

Given the fact that 2012 is not working out as we expected with so many facets of the team under performing, the inevitable sell off of Grienke, Marcum and hopefully K-Rod and Wolf will probably occur. If that happens the Brewers starting staff will be Gallardo, Fiers?, Thornburg? Peralta? and Estrada/Narveson or prospect from trade. Free agents like Hamels, Grienke, Shields would probably be too pricey to sign. Gavin Floyd or E. Jackson might be targets, but I am not sure if that would be enough. I don't know if 2013 is realistic to contend. Might have to wait until 2014 for Jungmann and Bradley if they work out. Thoughts?

[Oldcity]

Their only realistic shot seems to be if Greinke re-signs. If they have a firesale and manage to get some MLB-ready guys, possibly.

[markedman5]

Even if Greinke re-signed it's hard to see how. So many holes to fill. 1b, SS, CF,....bullpen needs a massive overhaul.....Narveson? Wolf will be let go.

 

The bench? Will Weeks bounce back? I mean outside of Braun, Luc, and Gallardo do we have any guys who can be depended on for good to excellent production?

 

Melvin has got his work cut out for him.

[Oldcity]

If Greinke were to re-sign, they'd still have some money to play with that they wouldn't be paying Marcum/Wolf/K-Rod. Now, some of that would go to Greinke and raises to Weeks, Hart, and other arbitration cases, but they could fill shortstop and first base. I think CF is fine with some of the guys they have in their system.

 

Of course, I am not expecting Greinke to re-sign, so this is probably all moot.

[owbc]

I'm tempted to say no, but you never know with that 2nd wild card. There's probably not going to be a blockbuster, but they will be able to fly under the radar and hopefully get some help from the minors, especially in the 2nd half of 2013. There's going to be a lot of money spent in the NL, but probably not much in the NL Central. The Pirates are the team that should go for it in 2013. It's too early to tell though, we will know more if they sell some pieces in the next month and a half.

[RockCoCougars]

Agreed that it all hinges on Greinke. In my view, Attanasio needs to go big or go home, because with no Greinke, this team is sunk. I hear all this talk about how ZG wants to win, etc., but in the end money talks. If the Brewers trade him before holding good faith negotiations, I will be livid. The offense and bullpen have been horrendous this season, but I think that they can be tweaked and with luck improved. That said, a rotation of Gallardo and ?,?,?,? is almost guaranteed to be bad. On the other hand, any team with a one two like Greinke and Gallardo has a shot. If I've said this once, I've said it a dozen times on here, but in my view the only trading chip with real value is Greinke. You may get something decent for Marcum, and that's it, unless you want to move your core guys. Getting anything for guys like KRod, Morgan, etc. is a pipe dream.

 

In the end, I just hope that they don't start making trades for the sake of making trades, especially with a barren farm system. Last time this happened, Dean Taylor made this team unwatchable for a few years, trading one guy after another for 'prospects' or 'guys' that other teams felt expendable. He fleeced Cleveland for Sexson, but every other trade brought pretty much pure garbage in return.

 

I guess that I don't buy into the idea that it is possible to replenish a farm system by solely trading guys. It's going to take a few good drafts and several years for that to happen. In the meantime, I don't want to endure another long stretch of brutal baseball.

[trwi7]

I just don't see it. Let's just be generous and say Greinke re-signs for $15 million a year, you're already at $61.25 million between Greinke, Gallardo, Weeks, Braun, Hart and Ramirez. Aoki, Lucroy, Gamel and Green are under control for cheap. Axford will be heading to arby, Gomez and Morgan will be heading to arby again, unless they non-tender Morgan and go with Schafer. You're paying $1.5 million to Wolf for the buyout. You still have three spots in the rotation to fill. You still have to go and find a shortstop and possibly depth at 1st. Veras is very likely non-tendered. Loe may be non-tendered.

 

There are just so many holes to fill and only so much money to do it.

[logan82]

Even if Greinke re-signed it's hard to see how. So many holes to fill. 1b, SS, CF,....bullpen needs a massive overhaul.....Narveson? Wolf will be let go.

 

The bench? Will Weeks bounce back? I mean outside of Braun, Luc, and Gallardo do we have any guys who can be depended on for good to excellent production?

 

Melvin has got his work cut out for him.

Let's see

1B - Gamel

SS - Gonzalez, Maysonet, Ransom(not ideal but the last 2 won't hurt us much)

CF - Morgan, Gomez, Aoki, Schafer.

 

The only thing I see keeping us from contending next year is signing Greinke and a big bounceback from the pen.

[Invader3K]

Agreed that it all hinges on Greinke. In my view, Attanasio needs to go big or go home, because with no Greinke, this team is sunk. I hear all this talk about how ZG wants to win, etc., but in the end money talks. If the Brewers trade him before holding good faith negotiations, I will be livid.

 

What is that supposed to mean? That the Brewers haven't been negotiating with him honestly up to this point?

 

The latest rumors say that the Brewers and Greinke are still far apart in terms of what it would take to extend him. I think the writing is on the wall that he will "test" free agency after the season. I would rather see him traded sooner than later and get maximum return, rather than see him walk and maybe get a decent comp pick for him.

[3and2Fastball]

Greinke won't sign with the Brewers unless he sees them as serious contenders, and therein lies part of the problem.

 

There are a lot of "if" factors at work: Rickie Weeks, does he start playing like Rickie Weeks or does he continue to play like Chone Figgins? Personally I think Martin Maldonado should be made the new starting catcher and they should find another starting spot for Lucroy (RF with Hart to 1B? 2B if Weeks is Figgins?) but I seriously doubt the Brewers would even consider that. I think Lucroy could be a .320 hitter every year if he only caught once every 5 games....

 

Anyways, back to realistic possibilities: Thornburg & Jimmy Nelson may be ready to contribute in 2013, especially Nelson.

 

The Brewers will need to make a smart free agent signing along with signing Greinke, another impact player is needed.

 

It is possible for the Brewers to win the division w/o Greinke but then the "if" factors increase tenfold: if other teams have unexpected player slumps (i.e. if Brandon Phillips starts hitting like Figgins, if Joey Votto becomes a .260 hitter) and injuries.... if unexpected Brewers become stars (Gindl becomes a ROY candidate, Gomez hits .290/.370 and steals 70 bases)...if Braun has a career year and hits .340 with 50 HR's... if Aramis Ramirez discovers the fountain of youth and hits 35 HR's....

 

None of that is likely (other than Phillips suddenly hitting like Chone Figgins)

 

Who knows, maybe Mark A loses part of his mind and signs Greinke and Josh Hamilton.... not likely

[fondybrewfan]

They are going to have a ridiculous amount of money to spend this offseason if they so choose. I don't think it is possible right now to predict 2013. If they sit back and don't spend we aren't going to contend. 2013 could still be entertaining though with a new wave of prospects up.

 

Right now this team looks like it has a lot of holes to fill for 2013; even with all that money it still looks like it would be an uphill battle to field a Division Championship team. However if Weeks comes back in 2013 and we get good performance out of Lucroy, Braun, Ramirez and Hart the offense will be good enough. The big question mark is the pitching; both starters and the bullpen. Both will probably be overhauled pretty substantially

[3and2Fastball]

There is a big huge 290 pound, 6 veggie burgers for lunch Hole in the middle of our lineup right now. That hole doesn't look like it will be filled from within. (Maybe one of our first round draft picks from this year can fill it, but that'd be in 2014/2015 at the very "Harper/Trout" earliest).

 

We'll need to fill that Hole through a trade or free agency. A tough tough challenge.

 

Aramis Ramirez was either a stopgap move or an epic fail depending on how the Brewers realistically looked at it when they signed him.

[patrickgpe]

i don't think signing Greinke is enough to contend next year. the brewers would have to use almost all of their Free Agency budget to get him. They still will need to get a ss minimally and may have to do a complete makeover of the pen and maybe there is still a huge question mark at 1st.

 

At this point, i'd trade Greinke. I'm sure the brewers can get a decent young shortstop, 1st baseman, and a young starter in return. If the pen can get their act together, they may be fine, since i don't see the central getting significantly better next season.

[RockCoCougars]

What is that supposed to mean? That the Brewers haven't been negotiating with him honestly up to this point?

 

No. It means that they almost certainly lowballed him as they apparently did with C.C. and Prince. In the end, if Greinke walks, Attanasio is 0 for 3 in retaining star free agents, and this during an 'upswing' of the franchise with the accompanying attendance. Not good.

[monty57]

If the Brewers make no moves and don't exercise Wolf's option, they will have $50.9MM committed to seven players (Braun, Weeks, Lucroy, Gallardo, Ramirez, Hart, Aoki and Wolf's buyout) with another seven (Axford, Gomez, Ishikawa, Kottaras, Morgan, Narveson, Parra) arbitration eligible, potentially adding another $13MM or so if they kept all of them. They currently have nine guys (Gamel, Dillard, Fiers, Estrada, Green, Maldonado, Maysonet, Perez, Ransom) who will still be pre-arby next year, but most of those are journeymen, so we don't have a lot of pre-arby talent, even with some pitchers coming up. We will have four question marks in the rotation, a bullpen which needs a complete overhaul and we'd still be looking for an answer at shortstop.

 

If they signed Greinke, that would mean around $75MM would be committed to eight players (plus the money attributable to arby & pre-arby guys). We'd have three question marks in the rotation, a bullpen which needs a complete overhaul and we'd still be looking for an answer at shortstop. Only we'd have no money to fill any of these other holes. Even with the new TV deal, we are very likely going to have decreased attendance after this season, so I doubt we'll have over a $90MM payroll next year unless Attanasio really thinks we'll be a playoff contender. Therefore, I don't think we could afford to have $75MM going to eight players and still field a team.

 

The only way I see us being competative in 2013 is if we sell this year and get some MLB-ready pieces. If we trade Greinke, Hart and Marcum for some "Top 100" prospects who could be on our roster next year, then there is a possibility we could contend in 2013, and we'd be young and inexpensive, so we could get better over the next few seasons. If we could get anything of value for K-Rod, Morgan, Loe, Veras, etc, then that would help too.

 

By trading Hart, we would have $40MM committe to six players, so we would have some financial flexibility to add pieces where needed. The big X-factor is what talent we would get in trade for Greinke, Marcum and Hart. Greinke and Marcum's return would have to be greater than a first rounder and comp pick, so I'm assuming we'd at least get a Top 100 prospect for both of them. Hart is an All Star with 1.5 years of relatively inexpensive service time remaining, so I'd assume we'd at least get a Top 100 prospect for him.

 

I don't know if this would be enough to make us a playoff team in 2013, but adding three (or more) near-MLB-ready Top 100 prospects into our system to go along with the good young pitching we have coming up and the MLB "core" we have locked up would go a long way to making us playoff-competitive for 2013-2019. I'd take punting this season and maybe being a little down next year for that scenario.

[Raw Biz]

What is that supposed to mean? That the Brewers haven't been negotiating with him honestly up to this point?

 

No. It means that they almost certainly lowballed him as they apparently did with C.C. and Prince. In the end, if Greinke walks, Attanasio is 0 for 3 in retaining star free agents, and this during an 'upswing' of the franchise with the accompanying attendance. Not good.

 

How do you know whether they lowballed him? Because we didn't offer him a $125 million contract? The Brewers can't afford to sign Greinke to something like that. You have to be realistic and realize that the Brewers are a small-market team. The fact that they have a $100 million payroll this year doesn't mean they are no longer small-market. $100 million is not sustainable long-term. CC and Prince were both the top 2-3 FAs available during their class so it's not a surprise that neither were resigned. Greinke will probably be one of the top in his class as well.

 

Yes it sucks to lose players like that but we need to realize that we will probably never be able to keep those superstars, unless you get a Braun-like contract. And Braun is a special kind of player, in that he took certainty and comfort over the risky big payday. We should focus on enjoying 5 years of control of a player (or less depending on whether traded for them) and then cycling them out for younger, cheaper, and hopefully talented players.

[FVBrewerFan]

Short answer is no. Unless they make exactly the right moves, everyone stays healthy, have a little luck, and everyone performs at or above career norms.

 

Even if Greinke is signed, we lose Marcum. Who replaces him next year that can put up the same numbers? How can the bullpen get a massive upgrade? I'm not as concerned about the bats. Gamel and Gonzalez will be back, plenty of hope Weeks will return to form, etc.

 

It's the pitching that really concerns me, even if Greinke is back.

[RockCoCougars]

How do you know whether they lowballed him? Because we didn't offer him a $125 million contract? The Brewers can't afford to sign Greinke to something like that. You have to be realistic and realize that the Brewers are a small-market team. The fact that they have a $100 million payroll this year doesn't mean they are no longer small-market. $100 million is not sustainable long-term.

 

I'd counter by asking how do you know this? Have you seen the books? By all accounts, the Brewers get new TV money next season, and no one knows what that is. I'm not sure that a payroll in the $100 million range is unsustainable with attendance in the 3 million range.

 

A ton of money is coming off the books this off season. I don't think that it's absurd to give Greinke something in the low 20's. Let Wolf walk, and stop wasting money on the bullpen and guys like Ramirez. You are going to have to pay for starting pitching anyway and there will be a ton of open spots in the rotation. Bottom line, would you rather have Marcum, a guy like Braden Looper and a rookie or Greinke and two rookies?

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't see how this team is a contender in 2013 unless there are some very nice trades pulled off by Melvin over the rest of this season. And this is why so many people have/had a problem with "going for it" in 2011. Yeah, sure, it was great to be a serious contender for one season. Trouble is, you don't get to hit the reset button & start over after that... you have to lie in the bed you made, and that's where Melving & Attanasio are currently languishing.

 

This organization is in serious trouble right now imo, and with Melvin at the helm, I'm concerned that any kind of rebuilding efforts wouldn't pan out (demanding MLB-ready players instead of high-upside players regardless of level, etc.). Sure, there's some nice pitching on the farm now, but for how much longer? Do people really expect Patcher Melvin to not trade at least some of those young arms for vet SP(s)? Melvin doesn't build an organization, he's focused nearly 100% on the MLB team in the next 1- or maybe 2-year window... and this is the result of that strategy, whether it'd worked for a WS title last season or not.

[monty57]

By all accounts, the Brewers get new TV money next season, and no one knows what that is.

 

A New York newspaper article hinted that our previous deal was for $10MM, and "the new one triples that." So I'd guess about $20MM/year in new revenue. That's pre-tax and certainly won't all be added to MLB payroll.

 

I'm not sure that a payroll in the $100 million range is unsustainable with attendance in the 3 million range.

 

That's two part.

 

First, a payroll in the $100MM range may be sustainable if we can continue to draw 3MM fans, but since many/most other teams are getting bigger TV deals, that $100MM won't buy what it used to.

 

Second, with the way this season's going, I highly doubt we get 3MM fans next year, and maybe not for a few seasons.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say next year's payroll will be around $80-90MM. The "real" value of that will probably be what a $60-70MM payroll would've bought several years ago.

 

A ton of money is coming off the books this off season.

 

Yes, but we still have around $51MM is committed to seven players plus Wolf's buyout. Throw in a few arby players worth keeping and a couple pre-arby guys that'll stick, and we'll have well over $60MM committed and we'll still need to completely rebuild our starting rotation and bullpen, find a shortstop and fill out the bench.

 

I don't think that it's absurd to give Greinke something in the low 20's.

 

Then we'd have our whole budget accounted for and still have holes in the rotation, bullpen and SS and still have no depth at most positions. We be a watered-down version of this year's team.

 

Let Wolf walk, and stop wasting money on the bullpen and guys like Ramirez.

 

Until we can "grow" guys on the farm, Melvin is always going to have to pay too much on the bullpen, as any free agents are expensive. As long as Roenicke's around, we'll be budgeting $5MM or so for a couple of vets to be the "7th and 8th inning guys," and more than that for a closer when we aren't fortunate enough to find a good one off the scrap heap. I agree with you that I really hope we are able to start generating homegrown bullpen guys, but until we can, we'll be wasting valueable resources there. As far as Ramirez, I'm with you, but we're stuck for $30MM over the next two seasons and until we start trusting rookies, we'll continue to max our payroll out with guys like him.

 

You are going to have to pay for starting pitching anyway and there will be a ton of open spots in the rotation. Bottom line, would you rather have Marcum, a guy like Braden Looper and a rookie or Greinke and two rookies?

 

If I had to choose, and assuming Greinke's a lot more expensive and a lot longer deal, I'd take Marcum. There would be a lot less risk in a lower money/fewer year deal, and Marcum's pitched as well or better than Greinke has for the last few years. However, I wouldn't assume that the savings would be spent on "a guy like Braden Looper." Just because we picked up Looper and he sucked doesn't mean that any money not spent on a blockbuster contract will be wasted.

 

That's really all beside the point, because I think Greinke and Marcum are both all but gone. I'd trade Greinke, Marcum and Hart which I believe would bring back at least three "Top 100" prospects. If possible, I'd focus on a couple of pitchers and a SS. We could have Gallardo, {trade}, {trade}, Fiers/Thornberg/Estrada/Jungman/Peralta/Nelson/other. We'd then have a lot of money to fill in holes add depth.

 

"Going for it all" has put us in a position where the next few years will be difficult, but not impossible. "Buying" this year will probably cripple us, while "selling" would make the rebuild go a lot quicker.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Their TV money will be up...many other teams will be up more, much more.

[JJHardy7]

No. It means that they almost certainly lowballed him as they apparently did with C.C. and Prince. In the end, if Greinke walks, Attanasio is 0 for 3 in retaining star free agents, and this during an 'upswing' of the franchise with the accompanying attendance. Not good.

 

Does he get any credit for extending players (Braun, Yo, Luc, Hart, etc)?

[RockCoCougars]

Does he get any credit for extending players (Braun, Yo, Luc, Hart, etc)?

 

Some. The 'Cleveland model' is basically a calculated risk that can work (it did in Cleveland). At the same time, even the Bando/Selig did this with guys like Listasch, Valentin, Eldred, Burnitz etc. with somewhat disastrous results. I see it as more of a cost certainty move that shifts some risk to the players but also looks good to the fans. I want to see the Brewers to actually sign one of their own stars once they hit that free agency year. Say what you want about Selig and the changing economics of the game, but until Molitor left, the biggest FA defection from Milwaukee was probably Billy Travers. In the end, Greinke is not going to get much more than Cain did (it's actually kind of nice that Cain is boosting his profile as late), this amount is not going to bankrupt Attanasio. It may look horrible in five years, but without risk, there is rarely reward. If throw up your hands every time one of your stars hits free agency, things seem pretty fruitless.

[monty57]

I want to see the Brewers to actually sign one of their own stars once they hit that free agency year.

 

I don't. If they're a "core" guy, then extend him prior to him getting close to free agency. If a player doesn't want to extend when all the risk is on him, then he obviously is going for the big money in free agency. That's not the Brewers' fault, but they could get really hurt long-term if they try outbidding the big money teams for superstar players.

[adambr2]

Braun and Lucroy are really the guys to build around in the lineup. You're kind of stuck with ARam, so he stays at 3rd. SS will definitely have to be addressed through free agency. Bringing back Gonzalez would be fine with me, at a slightly smaller salary. Bring back Ransom, too -- he is owed $480,000 next year and can play every IF position. I don't want him starting, but he is exactly the kind of cost-effective utility infielder that we should be building our bench around. Please do not bring back "Izzy".