Was the "Hardy for Gomez trade" the biggest mistake Melvin ever made?

[ELCABALLO45]

If only the Brewers kept Cruz and then arranged to play half their games in Arlington, it would have been awesome!

 

Do you really thing that playing 81 games at Miller Park compared to 81 in Arlington would really effect his numbers that much?

[RobertR]

Trading position players for relief pitchers is horrible value, so it was a terrible trade, and in no way strengthened the franchise on the whole. It's not revisionist history, it's simply the truth. We ended up trading 2 every day players for 2 backups and a relief pitcher.

 

That should be All Star quality relief pitcher. In general I agree with the principle, but the Brewers weren't resigning Lee and there's a pretty good argument to be made that 1.5 years of Cordero was worth more to a team trying to make the playoffs than 0.5 years of Lee.

 

Heck, the supplementary pick they got for losing Cordero to free agency was Odorizzi which obviously was a key part of the Grienke deal. Yeah, they would have got supplementary picks for Lee as well, but they nailed that pick.

 

I agree that the stuff surrounding the Lee/Francisco part of the swap turned out terrible for the Brewers. The centerpiece of the swap turned out exactly how they envisioned.

 

I think the Doug Davis, Dana Eveland, and David Krynzel for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, and Greg Aquino trade was Melvin's worst. Doug Davis had some effective years left in him and nobody coming back performed much above replacement level. I guess that Melvin knew more about Eveland's attitude and work ethic than we did at the time, but that could have really blown up in the Brewers faces if he had turned out.

 

Robert

[HiAndTight]

The worst trade the Brewrs have made is Marcum for Lawrie and I don't think that one is even going to be close.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes he did.

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2007.shtml.

 

No, he didn't:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=hartco01&t=b&year=2006

 

Mench got more starts for about two weeks, then Hart started almost every game from August 12th on. After the trade Hart got 46 starts and Mench 31. Then take a look at 2007 and tell me who the starter was, Hart or Mench?

 

Mench started a ton of games in 2007, mostly in LF. Mr. Braun was at 3B. Which is interesting, because if Cruz was kept and started in LF the lst few years, Braun would be at 3B, and probably playing it pretty well. Which means no ARam... and the domino effect keeps going. No McGehee at 3B last year, which means no reason to trade him for that gas can Veras.

 

But I digress. Trading anyone is not the problem, it's what you get in return. And what makes that trade so bad is that Cruz was just thrown in there.

[jjfanec]

I know these Hardy threads are easy post when he is one of his hot streaks. I love JJ hence my screen name but he is not as good as some here make him out to be.

 

His line for this year is now .216/.254/.373 which leads to an OPS of .628. Only 5 of 22 SS have a lower OPS than him and his OBP is dead last.

 

Now Gomez hasnt been good but his line is better than Hardys this year

[DHonks]

jjfanec, should we move Gomez to SS? We have 4 competent (or better) CF's and no competent SS's. I'd trade Gomez for Hardy 100% of the time

[HiAndTight]

1) I really don't want to rehash Nelson Cruz yet again. Any other team could have had him for free at a certain point, so every other MLB GM had the same perception of him at the time as Melvin did when he included Cruz in that deal.

 

So that makes it better? Every other team could've had him, so it's not Doug's fault!

 

He traded a 25 year old who was crushing the ball in Nashville before he even got a chance with the team. He traded that player, along with our best trade asset at the time for a reliever with 1.5 years left on his contract, a weak side platoon outfielder and an outfielder who was a year younger than Cruz, had almost 800 major league at bats and a .286 OBP. If he trades Cruz, that's fine but when you trade him and our best trade asset for that group of players, people will have a problem with it.

 

 

I'm a little late to the party here, but after hearing the trade rumors for Prince Fielder with a full year left, how much exactly do you think Carlos Lee was going to net a team knowing he was going to become a FA in short order? The Brewers were at a different point then. They were trying to get competitive and get interest in the team.

 

And now the underwhelming market that is apparently out there for Greinke, just what DO you think Carlos Lee was worth?

 

And yes, that DOES make it better. That Nelson Cruz was later waived and available to every single team in baseball and still nobody wanted him. Not sure how it doesn't mitigate the downside of making that trade. That's kinda common sense.

[HiAndTight]

I get that Lawrie is still only 22 or whatever, but he hasn't been very good this season. He hasn't been horrible, but not great either. Offensively, he'd be toward the low end of AL 3rd basemen. I should know because he's been one of the bigger disappointments on my fantasy team. Maybe last year was a bit of a mirage.

 

Last season was definitely a mirage in that he shouldn't have been expected to instantly be a HOF-caliber bat. But I do believe he's going to return to that level of production once he really hits his stride. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if he were to have a big second half this year, either. He's just very naturally gifted as a hitter, he has bat speed you simply can't coach. I realize some people read posts like this & assume that I mean I'm guaranteeing that he'll be a star, but that's not the case. He simply has the type of physical ability necessary to be a star.

1) I really don't want to rehash Nelson Cruz yet again. Any other team could have had him for free at a certain point, so every other MLB GM had the same perception of him at the time as Melvin did when he included Cruz in that deal.

 

So that makes it better? Every other team could've had him, so it's not Doug's fault!

 

He traded a 25 year old who was crushing the ball in Nashville before he even got a chance with the team. He traded that player, along with our best trade asset at the time for a reliever with 1.5 years left on his contract, a weak side platoon outfielder and an outfielder who was a year younger than Cruz, had almost 800 major league at bats and a .286 OBP. If he trades Cruz, that's fine but when you trade him and our best trade asset for that group of players, people will have a problem with it.

 

You can't ever guarantee that a player will be a star. But you sure as hell can predict it, and I long ago predicted that Brett Lawrie's peak value, his top 3-4 seasons will be as good as Ryan Braun's. He's probably never going to hit like Braun, especially in the pitching packed AL East. But he CAN play 3rd, which to me it's almost baffling why after moving from C, the Brewers didn't just move him there. He doesn't have the great quickeness to play 2nd, but he sure has enough to play 3rd, and he has a good enough glove and a very strong arm. He's proving to be a very good 3rd basemen defensively.

 

Trading Lawrie for Marcum is going to be a move that has Brewers fans saying "what if," for years.

 

Hell, lets start here. What if we had Lawrie who's having a better year than Aram, is making 450 and we signed Edwin Jackson this year? I just hope I don't see "what if we could have had back to back HOF candidates in Lawrie and Braun, a GREAT 3-4. A Prince-Braun like 3-4 by the time that Lawrie, who's currently the age Braun was when he was in A+ and AA ball matures and hits 24-25.

 

 

 

Of course another almost equally frustrating "what if," is what "if," the Yankee's didn't get the ONE guy who was rated higher than CC and ended up drafting Trout with what should have been our 1st round pick, arguably the AL MVP this year.

 

But you have to get pretty lucky to actually end up with two guys like Lawrie and Trout to go with Braun. Though it was a realistic possibility. Then again, so was Jordan Zimmerman in the 3rd round several years ago. Which is why a thread like this can spiral out of control so fast.

I'm a little late to the party here, but after hearing the trade rumors for Prince Fielder with a full year left, how much exactly do you think Carlos Lee was going to net a team knowing he was going to become a FA in short order? The Brewers were at a different point then. They were trying to get competitive and get interest in the team.

 

And now the underwhelming market that is apparently out there for Greinke, just what DO you think Carlos Lee was worth?

 

And yes, that DOES make it better. That Nelson Cruz was later waived and available to every single team in baseball and still nobody wanted him. Not sure how it doesn't mitigate the downside of making that trade. That's kinda common sense.

[HiAndTight]

I know these Hardy threads are easy post when he is one of his hot streaks. I love JJ hence my screen name but he is not as good as some here make him out to be.

 

His line for this year is now .216/.254/.373 which leads to an OPS of .628. Only 5 of 22 SS have a lower OPS than him and his OBP is dead last.

 

Now Gomez hasnt been good but his line is better than Hardys this year

 

 

 

Carlos Gomez can and will be a 3-4 WAR players(which "the Biz suggests that means that I think the rest of the players on the team such a Hart, Weeks, Lucroy and company have zero value and are worth zero war for some re

ason).

 

I'm shocked I thought this earlier this year, but Gomez made a fundamental change to his game coming out of the gate this year. When he went down, he was hitting .280, though his WAR, much like Lawrie's was inflated because of his defensive metrcis was severely deflated as his defense was graded out as terrible at that time.

 

Anyway, had he not gotten hurt, I think he was finding his groove. He needs to play every day or he gets all hyper and be the player he's been most of his big league career. A spaz. But when he gets regular playing time as he did in the minors, he walks more, and he takes more pitches...which he was doing this year.

 

Not to mention when he came back, there happened to be several groundballs he normally outruns for hits and balls in the OF he just couldn't get to.

 

We're at a point not where it'll never happen, just as we may be with Gamel. And that's often the reason why teams move players who end up posting a three-four year run in which they post 9-14 WAR. Because they just haven't proven themselves, move on to a bad team, play everyday and settle in. Neither Gamel nor Gomez really has here and as soon as either has, something's happened.

 

But this is the first year where I wish, especially if we're a team that doesn't sign Greinke next year, we give Gomez 150 starts in CF and just see what he can do. But then of course we couldn't do the same with Gamel and I think he's a better bet.

 

The problem is management is in a place right now where they think they can reload and they just don't have enough rounds in the chamber. Hart should be traded, Gamel at 1st, Greinke traded, Fiers a mainstay. Marcum offered arby, hopefully trade him next year. Wolf traded(or dumped), Thornburg a mainstay. Every trade-able player traded. The question is Aoki.. 30 years old. I'm really just not sure...seems like a guy who'll age well meaning at 34-35 he could easily be a great 4th OF'er for us or even still doing what he's doing now.

 

Love that guy. Just knows how to play the game. Anyway...

[jjfanec]

jjfanec, should we move Gomez to SS? We have 4 competent (or better) CF's and no competent SS's. I'd trade Gomez for Hardy 100% of the time

 

Hardy would be nice but if Alex Gonzalez doesnt have a freak ACL tear we have a better hitting SS for less cost than Hardy. I wouldnt mind having Hardy, especially if you knew the Greinke trade was coming but since you didnt and there was what a year between the two trades.

[jjfanec]

 

You can't ever guarantee that a player will be a star. But you sure as hell can predict it, and I long ago predicted that Brett Lawrie's peak value, his top 3-4 seasons will be as good as Ryan Braun's. He's probably never going to hit like Braun, especially in the pitching packed AL East. But he CAN play 3rd, which to me it's almost baffling why after moving from C, the Brewers didn't just move him there. He doesn't have the great quickeness to play 2nd, but he sure has enough to play 3rd, and he has a good enough glove and a very strong arm. He's proving to be a very good 3rd basemen defensively.

 

Trading Lawrie for Marcum is going to be a move that has Brewers fans saying "what if," for years.

 

Hell, lets start here. What if we had Lawrie who's having a better year than Aram, is making 450 and we signed Edwin Jackson this year? I just hope I don't see "what if we could have had back to back HOF candidates in Lawrie and Braun, a GREAT 3-4. A Prince-Braun like 3-4 by the time that Lawrie, who's currently the age Braun was when he was in A+ and AA ball matures and hits 24-25.

 

It was hard to give up Lawrie at the time and it still hurts some, but he isnt having a good offensive year at all. His OPS (.734) is .73 points lower than ARam and he has negative value on the bases. His fielding sounds like it has been solid although there was some debate if his range factor was inflated because of shifts. He has had some error issues as well, but all in all he is solid fielding 3B.

 

All that said I am not sure why it is so matter of fact that Lawrie is having a better year than Ramirez. Lawrie also is looking like his power from last year might have been a little bit of fluke. Also Braun was only a year older than Lawrie when he made it the big leagues. We will see what Brett Lawrie shows up next year. That will determine how much sleep I lose over the trade. Right now Taylor Green could put up Brett Lawrie offensive numbers if given a chance to play everyday

[Yeti73]

Melvin's worst deal in retrospect was offering KRod Arbitration, which didn't seem like a bad idea at the time, but ended up costing a huge amount of money for mediocre performance. Obviously, the

 

You don't get Grienke to waive his no trade without Marcum, so I will maintain that was a good trade to this day. Given that we were so close to the WS, I still think it was great.

 

I think the JJ deal was a decent one, because you got a valuable and cheap player in Gogo and Hardy was about to become a FA anyway. We got more out of Gogo last year than the twins got from Hardy before he hit FA.

 

His worst trade is easily the Lee and Cruz for Coco and Munch. Coco ended up being great and we had no idea that Cruz would be this great, but Munch was awful.

[yfinn6]

Adding Mench to that trade wasn't what made it a bad deal. What made it a bad deal was the amount of playing time Mench received.

 

Add to that the ridiculous coverage his entrance into the park received as well as Daron Sutton's typical over-dramatic commentary on the situation made it that much worse.

[paul253]

Melvin's worst deal in retrospect was offering KRod Arbitration, which didn't seem like a bad idea at the time, but ended up costing a huge amount of money for mediocre performance.

 

I don't agree. KRod had an amazing season last year. The Brewers really took off after they acquired him. He was very open about wanting to go back to closing and knew he wouldn't get that opportunity in Milwaukee. The market just fell apart for him. I think the chance of getting two draft picks for him was worth offering him arby. Plus, his performance hasn't been that bad. Quite honestly he's the best bullpen pitcher we have. His ERA in July is a shade over 2. In May it was a shade over 3 and in June it was like 3.27. Minus a terrible April he's actually had a pretty decent season.

 

It's hard to say what the biggest mistake Melvin made without knowing all the trades he turned down. Of all the moves he did make, I think the Carlos Lee deal was the worst. Trading an all-star outfielder for a reliever and two below average major league outfielders who never did anything in Milwaukee was a huge mistake.

[Raw Biz]

Carlos Gomez can and will be a 3-4 WAR players(which "the Biz suggests that means that I think the rest of the players on the team such a Hart, Weeks, Lucroy and company have zero value and are worth zero war for some re

ason).

 

Dude, you keep saying/attributing stuff to me that I never said. This is part of the reason why I can't take you seriously. You have these long-winded posts that repeat the same stuff over and over. And you post like 4 times in a row, just clogging up the boards. Think about what you want to say and try to say it in as few words as possible, without repeating the same statement multiple times. Second, you can respond to individual statements all in the same post, not having to start a new post for each.

 

Finally, if you're going to call someone out, make sure that A) you're not making something up that the person never said and B) you're not attributing someone else's statement to a different person.

 

First you said I thought the ARam contract was terrible and that I constantly bemoaned it. I never said that, I made one statement that it would be nice to unload the contract now that it doesn't seem like we will contend next year. And that contract is basically market value, BTW.

 

And second, it was DollarBill who made the statement about zero value. I don't even think he was trying to put you down with that statement and you just didn't understand what he was trying to say. There was also no reason to bring that statement up since it added nothing to your point. Its almost as if you're begging for someone to pick a fight with you when you bring their name up in that context, especially if it has nothing to do with the discussion.