Was the "Hardy for Gomez trade" the biggest mistake Melvin ever made?

[pebadger]

The Hardy trade wasn't a bad move at the time it was made. The bad moves came in prior to that which resulted in the trade essentially becoming necessary. Not saying JJ didn't contribute to what became an inevitable dissolution of the relationship between team and player.

[Polish Falcons]

I could be forgetting something but I don't recall Betancourt's defense having an impact on the final outcome of any playoff games. .

 

I mean this in a completely respectful way but I wish I could forget how bad Betancourt's D was, especially in the Cardinals series

 

http://www.fox11online.com/dpp/sports/brewers_and_mlb/cardinals-take-3-2-lead-in-nlcs

 

It wasn't just the error in Game 5, it was all the balls he didn't get to with his Grandma range throughout the postseason

 

 

I also mean this in a completely respectful way. As terrible as the play may have been it was completely inconsequential to the result of that game, series, and playoffs. It took the brewers from a 1-4 deficit to a 1-5 deficit in a game they lost 1-7. It really has no bearing whatsoever on JJ Hardy pushing the Brew Crew to the WS.

[Invader3K]

1) Giving up Nelson Cruz for nothing.

 

2) Not matching Yankees offer for Sabathia. Now THAT would have been going "all in." WS Title last year very likely with Sabathia/Greinke/Yo. Although that may have been a Mark A decision, not Melvin.

 

1) I really don't want to rehash Nelson Cruz yet again. Any other team could have had him for free at a certain point, so every other MLB GM had the same perception of him at the time as Melvin did when he included Cruz in that deal.

 

2) Even if they had matched the Yankees' offer to Sabathia, the Yankees would have just upped their ante to a stratosphere the Brewers simply couldn't go to. The comments from Hank and Hal Steinbrenner made it clear they would stop at nothing to get Sabathia.

[rluzinski]

What Hardy is doing now has nothing to do with whether the Brewers traded him or not. He's been a free agent. The Brewers were free to try and resign him.

 

When trying to analyze a trade, you compare the dollar value of the players' contracts at the time they were traded. Then you have the choice of either looking at the estimated expected future production at the time of the trade or the actual production (hindsight).

[RockCoCougars]

What Hardy is doing now has nothing to do with whether the Brewers traded him or not. He's been a free agent. The Brewers were free to try and resign him.

 

Thanks in large part to Doug, Hardy never hit free agency. He had the choice to, but chose to sign an extension with Baltimore in-season. Imagine that, a guy not 'testing the market'. Can't blame the guy for taking the sure money on the table...he was probably gun shy after he got sent to Nashville for a few weeks to knock his service time back.

[rluzinski]

What Hardy is doing now has nothing to do with whether the Brewers traded him or not. He's been a free agent. The Brewers were free to try and resign him.

 

Thanks in large part to Doug, Hardy never hit free agency. He had the choice to, but chose to sign an extension with Baltimore in-season. Imagine that, a guy not 'testing the market'. Can't blame the guy for taking the sure money on the table...he was probably gun shy after he got sent to Nashville for a few weeks to knock his service time back.

 

Fair enough but the point remains, the Brewers never owned 2012 Hardy. Maybe they would have had the opportunity to resign him and maybe that contract would have been ultimately favorable to the Brewers but we'll never know.

[monty57]

Imagine that, a guy not 'testing the market'. Can't blame the guy for taking the sure money on the table...he was probably gun shy after he got sent to Nashville for a few weeks to knock his service time back.

 

Because of how Hardy had played the prior few seasons coupled with his depression troubles, that was a pretty risky signing by Baltimore, and I hope it works for them. I'm not surprised at all that Hardy would jump at the extension at the time it was offered.

 

Generally speaking, when a player gets to the final few months of his current contract (or into his final arby year), the team is not going to get a discount to sign a player unless there is a lot of risk affiliated with said player. In my humble opinion, the time to extend a player is when there is still a lot of risk on the table for the player, so the team can get a substantial discount in return for taking on the risk, like we did in Braun's original contract, and recently with Lucroy.

[nate82]

 

Maybe Gamel or one of the OF'ers goes to KC instead of Alcides and we still get Greinke.

 

No we wouldn't have gotten Greinke by taking out Alcides and replacing him with Gamel. Why would the Royals want Gamel or another OF when they had Moustakas and Hosmer at positions that Gamel would be filling? That makes absolutely no sense for the Royals to even want Gamel at all.

 

That's why I said "or one of our OF'ers."

 

That still doesn't get it done. None of the OF'ers would be enough talent wise to replace Escobar. The Royals were looking specifically for a SS, CF, and a pitcher for Greinke. Adding another OF to the deal doesn't fix the wanting of a SS in the deal. Without Escobar in the trade the Greinke trade does not happen as Escobar was one of the key components to that trade. You can't substitute an OF for Escobar and then say the trade could go through because it wouldn't as none of the other players especially the ones in the OF are even on the same level as Escobar is and was at the time of the trade. The Royals were already getting Cain adding another OF to the mix just doesn't make any sense for the Royals. To be honest there wasn't much the Royals were interested in that was in the Brewers farm system. Cain, Escobar, Jeffrees, and Odorizzi were really the only valuable pieces to the Royals at the time this trade went down. If you add Hardy back to the Brewers Escobar is still going to be in that trade deal as you can't replace him with another player as there is no other player that the Royals would have had interest in that was in the Brewers farm system.

[trwi7]

1) I really don't want to rehash Nelson Cruz yet again. Any other team could have had him for free at a certain point, so every other MLB GM had the same perception of him at the time as Melvin did when he included Cruz in that deal.

 

So that makes it better? Every other team could've had him, so it's not Doug's fault!

 

He traded a 25 year old who was crushing the ball in Nashville before he even got a chance with the team. He traded that player, along with our best trade asset at the time for a reliever with 1.5 years left on his contract, a weak side platoon outfielder and an outfielder who was a year younger than Cruz, had almost 800 major league at bats and a .286 OBP. If he trades Cruz, that's fine but when you trade him and our best trade asset for that group of players, people will have a problem with it.

[jerichoholicninja]

That still doesn't get it done. None of the OF'ers would be enough talent wise to replace Escobar. The Royals were looking specifically for a SS, CF, and a pitcher for Greinke. Adding another OF to the deal doesn't fix the wanting of a SS in the deal. Without Escobar in the trade the Greinke trade does not happen as Escobar was one of the key components to that trade. You can't substitute an OF for Escobar and then say the trade could go through because it wouldn't as none of the other players especially the ones in the OF are even on the same level as Escobar is and was at the time of the trade. The Royals were already getting Cain adding another OF to the mix just doesn't make any sense for the Royals. To be honest there wasn't much the Royals were interested in that was in the Brewers farm system. Cain, Escobar, Jeffrees, and Odorizzi were really the only valuable pieces to the Royals at the time this trade went down. If you add Hardy back to the Brewers Escobar is still going to be in that trade deal as you can't replace him with another player as there is no other player that the Royals would have had interest in that was in the Brewers farm system.

 

I know Lawrie was traded before Greinke but I would guess they would have accepted Lawrie and we might have gotten to keep one of those players that we traded as well.

[RockCoCougars]

A few things....

 

I get that Lawrie is still only 22 or whatever, but he hasn't been very good this season. He hasn't been horrible, but not great either. Offensively, he'd be toward the low end of AL 3rd basemen. I should know because he's been one of the bigger disappointments on my fantasy team. Maybe last year was a bit of a mirage.

 

As for Cruz, the whole 'everybody could have had him on waivers' argument irks me a bit. It's like saying that everybody could have had Tom Brady in the draft. The fact is that the Brewers had Cruz and gave up on him without ever giving him much of a chance. They weren't going to bring him back on waivers a few months later (They only do that with Claudio Vargas). That's much more egregious to me. Incidentally, Cruz hasn't been very good this season either, so maybe this decision won't sting as bad down the road.

[Baldkin]

1) I really don't want to rehash Nelson Cruz yet again. Any other team could have had him for free at a certain point, so every other MLB GM had the same perception of him at the time as Melvin did when he included Cruz in that deal.

 

So that makes it better? Every other team could've had him, so it's not Doug's fault!

 

Yes. That means every team had him evaluated in the same way. They all thought he couldn't hit MLB pitching well enough to stick. He was striking out in nearly 25% of his AAA AB's, even though he was crushing the ball that number jumps a lot when going to MLB, the thought was he simply wouldn't make enough contact against better stuff to be an effective hitter.

 

To compare: Weeks, who everyone thinks K's too much, K'd less than 20% of the time in his short stint in the minors.

[TooLiveBrew]

I get that Lawrie is still only 22 or whatever, but he hasn't been very good this season. He hasn't been horrible, but not great either. Offensively, he'd be toward the low end of AL 3rd basemen. I should know because he's been one of the bigger disappointments on my fantasy team. Maybe last year was a bit of a mirage.

 

Last season was definitely a mirage in that he shouldn't have been expected to instantly be a HOF-caliber bat. But I do believe he's going to return to that level of production once he really hits his stride. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if he were to have a big second half this year, either. He's just very naturally gifted as a hitter, he has bat speed you simply can't coach. I realize some people read posts like this & assume that I mean I'm guaranteeing that he'll be a star, but that's not the case. He simply has the type of physical ability necessary to be a star.

[JJHardy7]

He traded a 25 year old who was crushing the ball in Nashville before he even got a chance with the team. He traded that player, along with our best trade asset at the time for a reliever with 1.5 years left on his contract, a weak side platoon outfielder and an outfielder who was a year younger than Cruz, had almost 800 major league at bats and a .286 OBP. If he trades Cruz, that's fine but when you trade him and our best trade asset for that group of players, people will have a problem with it.

 

I get what you are saying here, but there have been other guys around that age that never get the shot in MLB or when they do it doesn't pan out.

 

On the other hand, why didn't Milwaukee call up Cruz? It seems really odd that Melvin was off on Cruz given his history of either being smart or lucky with trading prospects. Does anyone recall if Texas held out for Cruz or if he was really just a throw in?

 

I don't have a problem with trading Cruz, but the return wasn't very good for Lee and Cruz.

[endaround]

If only the Brewers kept Cruz and then arranged to play half their games in Arlington, it would have been awesome!

[LouisEly]

If only the Brewers kept Cruz and then arranged to play half their games in Arlington, it would have been awesome!

 

And went back to the AL so they could have had a DH! Because...

 

"The fact is that the Brewers had Cruz and gave up on him without ever giving him much of a chance."

 

Who was he going to start ahead of, Ryan Braun or Corey Hart?

 

Going back to the title of the thread, I'll lobby that the biggest mistake Melvin made was letting R.A. Dickey go for nothing. They wouldn't have had to trade for one of Marcum or Greinke.

[RockCoCougars]

Who was he going to start ahead of, Ryan Braun or Corey Hart?

 

I don't know... Kevin Mench?

[LouisEly]

Who was he going to start ahead of, Ryan Braun or Corey Hart?

 

I don't know... Kevin Mench?

 

Except that Mench didn't start.

[RockCoCougars]

I must be remembering things wrong then, because I remember Mench stinking up the joint for the remainder of that season. I don't remember the platoon coming into play until the next season.

[trwi7]

Who was he going to start ahead of, Ryan Braun or Corey Hart?

 

Ryan Braun wasn't even in the major leagues and he wasn't playing in the outfield either.

[TheCrew07]

Who was he going to start ahead of, Ryan Braun or Corey Hart?

 

I don't know... Kevin Mench?

 

Except that Mench didn't start.

 

Yes he did. In fact Hart sat on the bench behind him much more than he should have in 2006, I wanted Hart to be starting over Jenkins and after the trade he definitely should have been an everyday player.

 

Hart was needlessly sent to AAA for a 3rd season in 2006 (after needlessly repeating in 2005), played only 26 games down there, but only got 453.1 innings in MLB in 51 starts all year with 2 coming in CF. Mench didn't join the Brewers until July 29th and still managed to get 27 starts and 277 innings out of last 58 games even though he didn't produce. Hart was outproducing him as Hart had a season long .796 OPS and Mench put up a .566 with the Brewers and .733 overall.

 

In fact I was livid that Gross was getting as much playing time as Hart but that's a discussion for a different thread.

 

Trading Cruz wasn't a problem, trading Cruz and Lee for a worthless OF in Kevin Mench, worthless MiLB RP in Julio Cordero, Laynce Nix, and Francisco Cordero was the problem. Trading position players for relief pitchers is horrible value, so it was a terrible trade, and in no way strengthened the franchise on the whole. It's not revisionist history, it's simply the truth. We ended up trading 2 every day players for 2 backups and a relief pitcher.

[logan82]

Gross getting playing time wasn't really a bad thing as long as it was part of a platoon. The guy had decen't splits. Mench over Hart wasn't all that great though.

[trwi7]

Mench over Hart wasn't all that great though.

 

Well there's an understatement.

[logan82]

Mench over Hart wasn't all that great though.

 

Well there's an understatement.

He should have been in AAA to save service time though. At that point I believe he probably was out of options.

[LouisEly]

Yes he did.

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2007.shtml.

 

No, he didn't:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=hartco01&t=b&year=2006

 

Mench got more starts for about two weeks, then Hart started almost every game from August 12th on. After the trade Hart got 46 starts and Mench 31. Then take a look at 2007 and tell me who the starter was, Hart or Mench?