Hart beyond 2013

[reillymcshane]

Hart said he wants to stay beyond 2013 and he's amenable to talking about a longer contract.

 

Here's the exact words:

 

"I'm only signed through next year, so I don't know what their plan might be. I'd like to be here longer than that. I'd be willing to listen to anything they have to say. I don't think it's something that they've even thought of at this point."

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/hart-looking-good-so-far-at-1st-base-jk5rtqe-159965205.html

 

I guess a lot comes down to what the team thinks of Gamel and Hunter Morris long term (I don't know of any other players who'd project as first basemen in our organization). Gamel has potential, but he hasn't seized the moment when he's had the chance. And Morris is having a solid season at AA - showing a lot of progress as a hitter - but he's not a certainty by any means.

[3and2Fastball]

In terms of the future at 1B, I think the Brewers are counting on either Clint Coulter or Victor Roache (their 1st round picks this year) to be their 1B for 6 years.

 

Coulter is only 18 so we're probably looking at 2015 for him, but Roache may be ready by 2014 (and they may be thinking of Roache being a RF). I think Morris & Gamel are starting to be looked at as stopgaps in the meantime but either or both of them have the talent to be productive MLB starters who contribute a Corey Hart-esque .820 OPS

 

Personally I'd like to see Hart traded as early as this coming trade deadline but that really isn't Melvin's MO to trade our players at a higher value. If I was the GM I'd be open but cautious about extending Hart as he does have value, especially being able to play RF & 1B and give you 30 HR seasons. But he is just a .820 OPS guy who is starting to slow down a little and the injuries are adding up, you don't want to break the bank for those type players

 

Hart could have some trade value next month, but the Brewers probably won't trade him for a year when his trade value will be much lower or even non-existant if Hart is injured then....

[JohnBriggs12]

Hart is now a 1st baseman and most certainly projects as one from age 32-34, so I don't think Werth and Ethier are correct comparables. As a 1st baseman, his numbers look pretty much in line with Adam LaRoche. LaRoche hit .261/.320/.468 with 25 HR and 100 RBI as a 30 year old in 2010. Those are certainly Corey Hart like numbers. All that was worth was a 2 year $16 million dollar deal with an option from Washington.

 

I think Hart's worth a bit more than that, maybe 3 yr/$33 million, but nobody is going to offer him Werth money. Werth's been a bust so teams aren't likely going to try and repeat that.

 

Roache won't make his pro debut until 2013. I think his timetable is more like 2015 at the earliest. Coulter is likely targeted for 2016. Even if one of those guys moves to 1B, a 3 year deal for Hart covering 2014-2016 isn't going to be major block.

[cvollbrecht]

Hart is now a 1st baseman and most certainly projects as one from age 32-34, so I don't think Werth and Ethier are correct comparables. As a 1st baseman, his numbers look pretty much in line with Adam LaRoche. LaRoche hit .261/.320/.468 with 25 HR and 100 RBI as a 30 year old in 2010. Those are certainly Corey Hart like numbers. All that was worth was a 2 year $16 million dollar deal with an option from Washington.

 

I think Hart's worth a bit more than that, maybe 3 yr/$33 million, but nobody is going to offer him Werth money. Werth's been a bust so teams aren't likely going to try and repeat that.

 

Roache won't make his pro debut until 2013. I think his timetable is more like 2015 at the earliest. Coulter is likely targeted for 2016. Even if one of those guys moves to 1B, a 3 year deal for Hart covering 2014-2016 isn't going to be major block.

 

So you don't believe that he is a competent RF or even LF anymore? He has had a better career UZR/150 than Braun, the only difference is that Braun makes flashy plays and Hart is more conservative in the field. He is at absolute worst "average" in RF and is becoming a dang good 1B which should only increase his value. The only reason he is playing 1B is because of Gamel's injury. Now thats not saying that I don't prefer him at 1B with our current roster, but not many teams have the OF depth that we have. Heck, we have 2 guys in AAA that could be 4th OF's right now for a lot of teams. I love Hart, but I think that he will price himself out of Milwaukee if he can continue to put up .275/.335/.480 with 25-30 HR and 75-90 RBI. Considering what Ethier and Werth have got in recent years, I could see him fetching at least a 4 year deal with anywhere form 35M-55M.

[paul253]

There were rumors about the Braves wanting Hart but they were not going to be giving up Beachy for him. I believe it was someone of lesser value than Beachy that was being talked about. I know a lot of people here wanted Beachy or Delgado for Hart but I don't believe there was ever any solid rumor about Hart for Beachy.

If what I remember is correct, the Braves offered Beachy but we insisted on Mike Minor, who at the time was more highly regarded.

 

As far as extending Hart, I just can't see why we'd do it. He's the type of guy we need to get away from. When Corey Hart was coming up, he was far and away my favorite prospect. Liked him more than Hardy, Fielder, Weeks, etc. But looking at him now I see him as a one dimensional offensive player. It seems like his only asset now is power. His OBP is .312. That's horrible. For comparison sake, Carlos Gomez, Alex Gonzalez, George Kottaras and Travis Ishikawa all have higher OBPs than him this year. He strikes out about once every three at bats and rarely draws a walk. If you put him back in the outfield you can see he has clearly lost a step. If you keep him at first you are getting an average first basemen. That said, if you want to resign him it'll probably cost you at least $10 million a year, and likely more. He'll be what, 31, when he hits free agency? The Brewers need to quit investing so much money in guys in the tail end of their careers (the Suppans, the Wolfs, the Ramirezs, the Eric Gagnes, the Corey Harts) so that maybe could afford to make a better run at the guys at the height of their careers (Sabathia, Fielder, Greinke, etc). Outfield is our strongest position in terms of having prospects who are ready to replace him, and first base is probably the easiest position to move someone to. We have Morris. We have Roache. Hell Khris Davis could play first if he ever gets healthy. Lucroy could eventually move there. Ramirez could play first next season.

 

Corey Hart has done a lot for Milwaukee and is a pretty decent player. But in my opinion it's time to move on. If we don't trade him this off-season, we certainly shouldn't give him a multiyear contract after 2013.

[TURBO]

Khris Davis is a little short to play MLB 1st base imo...

[Baldkin]

Khris Davis is a little short to play MLB 1st base imo...

 

If his bio is right, he's at least 3" taller than Prince.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'd consider extending Corey because I think he'll take somewhat of a hometown discount. It seems like he likes it here. He's a big family guy. If he starts getting Werth/Ethier numbers in his head, I'd move on as well. Werth was a silly contract and Ethier got extra dough because the Dodgers are desperate to hang on to a face of the franchise. I'd be surprised if someone else paid the silly bucks for Corey, despite him being just as or close to as good as they are. I would agree he's been an underrated piece of the franchise.

 

There are so many holes this team will need to fill, some of which could be addressed by trading Corey. It's funny some have compared Morris to Overbay, that's always how I've pictured Gamel. Paying a fair price for Corey is fine, but if you are the Brewers you can't win without production from guys making less than they are worth. You only get a few $10-15mm bullets so you have to use them wisely. If they can get an attractive contract, great...otherwise move on. Can't blame either side if it comes to that.

[reillymcshane]

It seems like his only asset now is power. His OBP is .312. That's horrible.

 

He's had OBP of .340, .356 and .312 over the past three years. I don't think it's wise to only look at this year (although I believe that it should be weighed more heavily than past seasons). A good month and he can suddenly have a .350 OBP.

 

I guess you have to look at him - look at the scouting reports, examine other stats, watch his at bats - and determine if he's on the 'decline'. Is a .312 OBP what you anticipate going forward? If so, he's definitely not worth it.

 

I suppose playing the waiting game is best. See how he plays out 2012. And how your other assets in the minors play out.

 

Another point -- if you don't extend him, there are usually options available in that same $10 million/year area. Examples include Cudyer, LaRoche, Willingham, etc. So if you're looking for a 2-3 year stop gap, you can always dip into the FA market. You certainly don't want to saddle yourself with an unnecessary long term contract if it can be avoided.

[JJHardy7]

Would Hart net us picks at this piont (if he was a free agent after this year)?

[RockCoCougars]

I see the Corey Hart situation as fairly similar to the Geoff Jenkins one a few years back. A pretty productive guy who came up through the system, seems to enjoy playing in Milwaukee and belied that by signing an extension before hitting free agency. Hart will also be roughly the same age Jenkins was when his deal ended. Jenkins was the odd man out in Milwaukee because of Braun and ironically Hart. As we stand this time, I don't really see any young studs ready to take over right (or first for that matter) for the foreseeable future. Jenkins also had a worse history of serious injuries than Hart and seemed to age worse because of it (not to mention he is reportedly one of the guys on the 'unconfirmed list'). I'd certainly be open to offering Hart an extension, but I'd probably wait until the off season to start pursuing anything, to see how things play out for the rest of this season and in free agency.

[3and2Fastball]

As far as extending Hart, I just can't see why we'd do it. He's the type of guy we need to get away from. When Corey Hart was coming up, he was far and away my favorite prospect. Liked him more than Hardy, Fielder, Weeks, etc. But looking at him now I see him as a one dimensional offensive player. It seems like his only asset now is power. His OBP is .312. That's horrible. For comparison sake, Carlos Gomez, Alex Gonzalez, George Kottaras and Travis Ishikawa all have higher OBPs than him this year. He strikes out about once every three at bats and rarely draws a walk. If you put him back in the outfield you can see he has clearly lost a step. If you keep him at first you are getting an average first basemen. That said, if you want to resign him it'll probably cost you at least $10 million a year, and likely more. He'll be what, 31, when he hits free agency? The Brewers need to quit investing so much money in guys in the tail end of their careers (the Suppans, the Wolfs, the Ramirezs, the Eric Gagnes, the Corey Harts) so that maybe could afford to make a better run at the guys at the height of their careers (Sabathia, Fielder, Greinke, etc). Outfield is our strongest position in terms of having prospects who are ready to replace him, and first base is probably the easiest position to move someone to. We have Morris. We have Roache. Hell Khris Davis could play first if he ever gets healthy. Lucroy could eventually move there. Ramirez could play first next season.

 

Corey Hart has done a lot for Milwaukee and is a pretty decent player. But in my opinion it's time to move on. If we don't trade him this off-season, we certainly shouldn't give him a multiyear contract after 2013.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think Paul is completely correct here. Corey Hart is exactly the type of player the Brewers need to not extend. Especially with a limited salary cap and big money already going wisely to Braun & Yo. Put the Hart $$$ towards a Greinke offer

[JohnBriggs12]

Hart is now a 1st baseman and most certainly projects as one from age 32-34, so I don't think Werth and Ethier are correct comparables. As a 1st baseman, his numbers look pretty much in line with Adam LaRoche. LaRoche hit .261/.320/.468 with 25 HR and 100 RBI as a 30 year old in 2010. Those are certainly Corey Hart like numbers. All that was worth was a 2 year $16 million dollar deal with an option from Washington.

 

I think Hart's worth a bit more than that, maybe 3 yr/$33 million, but nobody is going to offer him Werth money. Werth's been a bust so teams aren't likely going to try and repeat that.

 

Roache won't make his pro debut until 2013. I think his timetable is more like 2015 at the earliest. Coulter is likely targeted for 2016. Even if one of those guys moves to 1B, a 3 year deal for Hart covering 2014-2016 isn't going to be major block.

 

So you don't believe that he is a competent RF or even LF anymore? He has had a better career UZR/150 than Braun, the only difference is that Braun makes flashy plays and Hart is more conservative in the field. He is at absolute worst "average" in RF and is becoming a dang good 1B which should only increase his value. The only reason he is playing 1B is because of Gamel's injury. Now thats not saying that I don't prefer him at 1B with our current roster, but not many teams have the OF depth that we have. Heck, we have 2 guys in AAA that could be 4th OF's right now for a lot of teams. I love Hart, but I think that he will price himself out of Milwaukee if he can continue to put up .275/.335/.480 with 25-30 HR and 75-90 RBI. Considering what Ethier and Werth have got in recent years, I could see him fetching at least a 4 year deal with anywhere form 35M-55M.

 

They didn't move him to 1B just because of Gamel's injury. They wanted to look at him there in spring. Gamel got the job for this year, but he had to produce to keep it and they were never sure he would. The injury was unfortunate but they can't afford the luxury of trying Gamel out there again. Hart can still play corner OF, but so can most 1B. He's lost most of the speed he once had when he was accumulating that UZR rating. He's playing with a bum knee as it is. Another year of almost exclusive 1B play and teams will look at him like he never played the OF. Other than the Cardinals, how did teams view Lance Berkman, once he became primarily a 1B? They got away with him for a year in RF but he went right back to 1B when Albert left.

 

Ethier has a Gold Glove. Werth can play a little CF. That Hart can function doesn't put him on par with either of those two.