Hart beyond 2013

[reillymcshane]

Do the Brewers extend Corey Hart beyond 2013?

 

What if you could do a 3-year deal. It would cover his age 32-34 seasons. That wouldn't put the team too deep of a commitment.

 

This last off season, Cuddyer (who is 33) got $11.5 million a year for three years. Ethier just got a five year deal - $17 million a year, covering ages 31-35.

 

Am I wrong to put Hart between those two - but closer to Cuddyer?

 

I'm thinking 3 years, $36-39 million. Maybe with an option.

 

The team could move him to 1B permanently. It blocks Hunter Morris - an okay prospect, but nothing special. I don't think we have any stud 1B coming up through the minors, so it fills a hole for the next four years.

 

Is Hart worth that? My gut tells me no. But he's been pretty productive the last few years - although his batting average has slipped this year. Still, he's on pace for about a 3.0 WAR this year - after getting 4.2 and 3.7 the previous two seasons (all per Fangraphs).

 

You could, of course, look to deal Hart for young (and cheap) talent.

 

Just curious as to what people think.

[3and2Fastball]

Not sure if Hunter Morris is just an "OK prospect". He looks to me like the next Lyle Overbay, who could give almost the production of Hart in Hart's prime as a LHB at a fraction of the price. And who knows how much Hart's production will slip as he gets into his 30's?

 

I wouldn't extend Hart, and the Brewers 1st round draft picks make it look like they have intention to extend Hart either

[monty57]

This last off season, Cuddyer (who is 33) got $11.5 million a year for three years. Ethier just got a five year deal - $17 million a year, covering ages 31-35.

 

Am I wrong to put Hart between those two - but closer to Cuddyer?

 

I'd say Hart is closer to (or even better than) Ethier. If Hart is extended, it would likely be for a minimum of $15MM/year, and we'll have to see what happens this offseason, but I'd guess it would take more than $15MM/year.

 

You could, of course, look to deal Hart for young (and cheap) talent.

 

This is probably the route I'd go. I don't know if it's the new TV deals coming in or what, but GM's around the league are on a spending spree and the price tag on veteran players is skyrocketing. If we could get a good, young pre-arby guy for Hart and extend him to a "Lucroy-type" deal then I think we'd be better off long-term.

[TURBO]

I would certainly pass on 15 million per year for Corey Hart, in fact, I would run away as fast as I could if that number was even mentioned by he and his agent...

[trwi7]

Not sure if Hunter Morris is just an "OK prospect". He looks to me like the next Lyle Overbay

 

Overbay was a career .341 hitter in the minors. Until this year, Morris never had an OBP higher than .306 and even this year his OBP is only .349.

[Roderick]

If I have an unlimited payroll, sure extend him.

 

But the Brewers should really be working and planning to have cheap players like Gamel, Morris, Gindl, etc be in a position to replace Hart when the time comes.

 

The big money needs to be used for the elite player that pushes you over the top and for extending players at positions that are harder to fill than corner OF/1B.

[MVP2110]

Im all for trading him for young cheap players. The Cubs system is starting to scare me and we really need to get ours back up.

[TooLiveBrew]

Look at how much money Jayson Werth got. Not saying someone else will make that huge of an offer to Corey, but if he wants to test FA, it's bye-bye Corey.

[FVBrewerFan]

I wouldn't necessarily trade him for young talent. In fact, I would rather package together a Hart/Axford/Ramirez type of deal for a premier SS, starting pitcher, or legit power bat.

[rluzinski]

According to Fangraphs, the value of Hart's recent performances are as follows:

 

2010: $15 mil

2011: $19 mil

2012: $13 mil (extrapolated)

 

After regression and age adjustment (he's past the average peak), you might be looking at a projection of around $11-$12 mil for 2014. If he wants to extend his current deal at $10 mil per for a year or two, great. I suspect he wouldn't, so I would be fine with him just playing out his current contract. The Brewers can still trade him at the deadline next year if they want to.

[monty57]

I wouldn't necessarily trade him for young talent. In fact, I would rather package together a Hart/Axford/Ramirez type of deal for a premier SS, starting pitcher, or legit power bat.

 

I don't limit "young" to "minor leaguer." If there is a pre-arby guy who makes sense, that would work. I just don't see any sense in trading a 30-year-old OF with one year on his contract for a 30-year-old SS with one year on his contract. In the "post-steroid era," I'm getting leery of anyone who is much past 30, and I hope the Brewers stop signing contracts which guarantee to pay players big money into their mid-30's.

 

If we trade Hart prior to next season, the receiving team would be able to get comp picks for him, so we should be able to get a good young player back for him. I don't see us being a good bet for the playoffs next year, so I would take six years of a good young player (starting at league minimum) for one year of Hart. If the player is good enough, we could extend him to a "Lucroy-type" deal, getting an extra year or two of service. Or, we could flip him in four or five years for another good young prospect.

[Invader3K]

The Brewers seem to be getting fairly deep with OF prospects, so no, I wouldn't extend him...and this is coming from a fan who thinks Corey Hart has been quite underrated and even under appreciated at times. But I still wouldn't spend the money to do it. I'd rather see him traded if anything, while he still has quite a bit of value.

[Thurston Fluff]

I would take six years of a good young player (starting at league minimum) for one year of Hart.

 

So would every other team. Problem is there are few if any teams willing to give up a good young player for one season of a player of any caliber. It took two years of Marcum to trade a good young player and one year of Prince couldn't get us enough in return to make it feasible.

[Invader3K]

A team trading for Hart might also be able to work out a contract extension with him, if they were so inclined.

[3and2Fastball]

Overbay was a career .341 hitter in the minors. Until this year, Morris never had an OBP higher than .306 and even this year his OBP is only .349.

 

Wow, I had no idea that Overbay was that good of a minor league hitter. That said, I still think Morris projects to be similar to Overbay as an MLB player: a .280 hitter who has a few .300 seasons in his peak, 15-20 HR's a season, lots of doubles. Maybe not as many walks as Overbay.

 

Morris was much more highly regarded coming out of college than Overbay. Maybe it has taken him longer to adjust to wood bats? He's playing real well in AA ball right now (22 doubles in 62 games! Plus a solid .289/.349 with 7 HR's and 38 RBI's)....

[TooLiveBrew]

The price tag for Corey Hart is going to be somewhere between the Ethier & Werth contracts. Let that sink in for a moment. I just don't see a scenario where re-signing him is a good idea for the Brewers, even if Corey is willing to give a hometown discount. What would that be, something like 5 years/$60M? I'm not sure I want the Brewers to even commit that much to Hart, & that's probably an unrealistically affordable guesstimate. More realistic might be something like 5/$75M imo, and Hart might well find more on the FA market... in fact I'd guess that would be the absolute minimum for which you could sign him as a FA.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd definitely look into extending Hart if he was amenable. I believe that he's been one of the better bargains in baseball for someone with his production/service time mix. I also think that he's always been a tad underrated on this board for whatever reason. Look at the lineup as we stand. Without Hart, you'd basically have Braun and crap- with very little power.

 

What did the Twins get Willingham for- 3/$25? If that's the case I could see the Brewers being able to get Hart for maybe a tad more.

[Thurston Fluff]

A team trading for Hart might also be able to work out a contract extension with him, if they were so inclined.

Sure they can. But they can also wait a year or sign a free agent of the same caliber as Hart without giving up the good young player. I like Hart but there are always players of his caliber to be had in free agency without giving up good, cost controlled young talent. I just think we have to be realistic in what we can get for one year of Cory Hart. Six years of a similar quality player is not realistic.

[RobDeer 45]

Really think you have to trade him. I love the kid but he's getting slow in the OF and isn't elite. I think we could maybe get a good prospect for him and the key is he'll be cheap. I think that's the move.

[monty57]

I would take six years of a good young player (starting at league minimum) for one year of Hart.

 

So would every other team. Problem is there are few if any teams willing to give up a good young player for one season of a player of any caliber. It took two years of Marcum to trade a good young player and one year of Prince couldn't get us enough in return to make it feasible.

 

If we trade him prior to next season, the receiving team would get comp picks for him. Getting Hart for a playoff run and then getting an extra 1st rounder and sandwich pick is worth quite a bit. We may just hold him for the picks, but we're probably not going to the playoffs next year and we could use some upper-minors prospects, so I'd trade him.

 

Melvin was apparently offered Daniel Hudson for one year of Prince. If I recall correctly, Beckham's name was being thrown around as well, but he insisted on getting two top-of-the-rotation guys with some MLB experience, which is a steep price for anyone, and there aren't many teams who want to pick up a one-year player who can also trade away 2/5 of their starting rotation.

 

I also believe he was offered one of the Braves' young pitchers (Beachy?) for Hart when he was going to be a free agent before signing him to the extension, and I don't remember which one (Fielder or Hart) was involved in when Matt Cain was rumored to be dangled to the Brewers.

 

When he couldn't get two young, MLB-proven starting pitchers for Prince, he extended Hart and traded our farm system for two years of Grienke and Marcum and a shot at the World Series, leading us to where we are now. I'm not expecting two aces for Hart, I'd be happy with something like Delgado from the Braves who have too many young pitchers and may like Hart's bat for a playoff run or two.

 

P.S. Just looking at the deals I just mentioned for a minute (and his trading Lawrie for Marcum) makes me think Melvin really overvalues MLB-proven guys and undervalues prospects.

[Thurston Fluff]

Melvin was apparently offered Daniel Hudson for one year of Prince. If I recall correctly, Beckham's name was being thrown around as well, but he insisted on getting two top-of-the-rotation guys with some MLB experience, which is a steep price for anyone, and there aren't many teams who want to pick up a one-year player who can also trade away 2/5 of their starting rotation.

 

I also believe he was offered one of the Braves' young pitchers (Beachy?) for Hart when he was going to be a free agent before signing him to the extension, and I don't remember which one (Fielder or Hart) was involved in when Matt Cain was rumored to be dangled to the Brewers.

 

Rumors of trades are not trades. There are all kinds of rumors that never amount to anything. What we see in actual trades seem to show good young players cost more than one season of above average veterans. IF I am wrong please show me an actual trade where someone of Hart's caliber is traded for the likes of players you mentioned. I'd like to believe it is possible but so far can't think of any trade that actually was made that compares.

[monty57]

Melvin was apparently offered Daniel Hudson for one year of Prince. If I recall correctly, Beckham's name was being thrown around as well, but he insisted on getting two top-of-the-rotation guys with some MLB experience, which is a steep price for anyone, and there aren't many teams who want to pick up a one-year player who can also trade away 2/5 of their starting rotation.

 

I also believe he was offered one of the Braves' young pitchers (Beachy?) for Hart when he was going to be a free agent before signing him to the extension, and I don't remember which one (Fielder or Hart) was involved in when Matt Cain was rumored to be dangled to the Brewers.

 

Rumors of trades are not trades. There are all kinds of rumors that never amount to anything. What we see in actual trades seem to show good young players cost more than one season of above average veterans. IF I am wrong please show me an actual trade where someone of Hart's caliber is traded for the likes of players you mentioned. I'd like to believe it is possible but so far can't think of any trade that actually was made that compares.

 

I've only got a minute, but Daniel Hudson (along with lhp David Holmberg) was traded just after those rumors to Arizona for Edwin Jackson, so I believe that one was true.

 

Last year, two years of Ubaldo Jiminez was traded at the deadline for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White and two others. A couple months of Michael Bourn brought in Jordan Schafer and others. A couple months of Furcal got the Dodgers Alex Castellanos, and the Cards traded Colby Rasmus to get Edwin Jackson. Probably the most notable was the Giants trading top prospect Zach Wheeler for a couple months of Carlos Beltran.

 

They may not be exact matches to what 1 - 1.5 years of Hart would bring, but teams do trade young players for veteran "rentals" when they're shooting for the playoffs.

[nate82]

I would take six years of a good young player (starting at league minimum) for one year of Hart.

 

So would every other team. Problem is there are few if any teams willing to give up a good young player for one season of a player of any caliber. It took two years of Marcum to trade a good young player and one year of Prince couldn't get us enough in return to make it feasible.

 

If we trade him prior to next season, the receiving team would get comp picks for him. Getting Hart for a playoff run and then getting an extra 1st rounder and sandwich pick is worth quite a bit. We may just hold him for the picks, but we're probably not going to the playoffs next year and we could use some upper-minors prospects, so I'd trade him.

 

Melvin was apparently offered Daniel Hudson for one year of Prince. If I recall correctly, Beckham's name was being thrown around as well, but he insisted on getting two top-of-the-rotation guys with some MLB experience, which is a steep price for anyone, and there aren't many teams who want to pick up a one-year player who can also trade away 2/5 of their starting rotation.

 

I also believe he was offered one of the Braves' young pitchers (Beachy?) for Hart when he was going to be a free agent before signing him to the extension, and I don't remember which one (Fielder or Hart) was involved in when Matt Cain was rumored to be dangled to the Brewers.

 

When he couldn't get two young, MLB-proven starting pitchers for Prince, he extended Hart and traded our farm system for two years of Grienke and Marcum and a shot at the World Series, leading us to where we are now. I'm not expecting two aces for Hart, I'd be happy with something like Delgado from the Braves who have too many young pitchers and may like Hart's bat for a playoff run or two.

 

It wasn't one year of Prince it was 1.5 years of Prince and Beckham never was a real consideration as I do not see Williams parting with him. I am sorry but for 1.5 years of Prince Hudson was not enough of a return and Williams knew this and just low balled Melvin as the White Sox were really the only team that were interested in trading for Prince. Also Cain has never been linked to real rumors for Hart. It has always been Fielder for Cain I am not sure where this started that it was rumored Hart for Cain as the Giants have only been mentioned in talks about trading for Hart and the pitcher was not Cain it was Sanchez.

 

There were rumors about the Braves wanting Hart but they were not going to be giving up Beachy for him. I believe it was someone of lesser value than Beachy that was being talked about. I know a lot of people here wanted Beachy or Delgado for Hart but I don't believe there was ever any solid rumor about Hart for Beachy.

 

If Melvin could get the Braves to part with Delgado for Hart I believe he would do that deal instantly. I don't see the Braves giving up on someone like Delgado for Hart. If the Phillies were playing better they would be a team I would peg as someone interested in Hart. The Red Sox would be another team that would be interested in Hart. But here is the problem with both the Phillies and the Red Sox they both have spring training camps in Florida and I believe Harts limited no trade clause blocks any trade to any team that have their spring training facilities in Florida.

 

That limited no trade clause which basically eliminates the entire NL and AL east along with some AL central and NL central teams kind of kills some of Harts trade value.

 

If you want to look at comparables for Hart in terms of a trade look at the Beltran deal last year and the Hunter Pence deal about 2-years ago. Hart's value in the trade market falls somewhere between those two trades.

[markedman5]

I think the brewers asked for Cain for Fielder and the Giants said no IIRC.

[TooLiveBrew]

The rumor at the time was Fielder for Cain. And I'm like 99% sure the other rumor, as you recalled, was Beachy for Hart. But who knows what really was offered or not.

 

 

P.S. Just looking at the deals I just mentioned for a minute (and his trading Lawrie for Marcum) makes me think Melvin really overvalues MLB-proven guys and undervalues prospects.

 

It's absolutely one of his biggest weaknesses.