Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[TheCrew07]

If we get hitters to AAA, we can always trade them for pitching.

 

I liked the theory but where's the practical application of it? When Ash and Co were talking about trading hitting for pitching what they were really talking about was trading bunches of prospects for established MLB pitching which isn't very economical. I thought they meant trading prospects for prospects and ittook me much longer than it should have to realize that what I thought they meant was far cry from what their actual plan was.

[danzig6767]

5th round pick Damien Magnifico sounds like a fun one to follow. According to the scouting reports his fastball has repeatedly touched triple digits. The downside is he has an injury history and doesn't have any pitches to go with the heater. Only a sophomore, so I'm not sure if any of the money potentially saved on the early picks will need to be redirected here.

 

What I don't get though is how can you call his fastball a plus plus pitch and also call it straight? If it does turn out to be a legit plus plus pitch, I've seen a lot of closers do really well with 1 great pitch and just a "show me" off speed offering.

 

The vast majority of pitchers who throw a 90 plus MPH four seam fastball, that fastball is largely very straight. Just look say at some current and former Brewers four seam fastballs.

 

Axford very straight. Greinke very straight. Sheets very straight. Gallardo very straight. What has made them successful pitchers off that four season fastball though is mainly just command of it. Controlling the count and not throwing it to often over the middle of the plate. Granted, Axford throws so hard that he can get away with more mistake fastballs than other pitchers, but even he has to command his fastball so that it's not regularly in easier spots to hit. If a big league hitter knows a fastball is coming and then that fastball also catches a lot of the plate, it'll often enough get hit hard, even if it's coming at 95 plus mph.

 

Of course many pitchers also throw two seam fastballs which come in at a lesser velocity, but have movement.

[HiAndTight]

I really dislike the 'hey, we drafted arms at the top of last year's draft, so it's bats this time!' approach. The Brewers need to take a page from the Packers' playbook & stop building their farm system based on need.

 

 

No offense TLB, but I've never understood how people can claim they didn't take BPA since A-We won't know for 4-5 years who that is, and B-We have no idea who the BREWERS believe those players to be.

 

So I don't understand the shot at Sied and company whatsoever.

 

Especially since you WERE clamoring for Bats early in this draft.

Watch video of Taylor's swing, & then tell me you have no doubts he was BPA. Iirc there's a link of his swing in the cage in this thread. And yes, I did want to see early picks spent on bats... which the org. did. This pick in particular is one I'm skeptical of since imo the bat here doesn't look very intriguing.

 

 

EDIT: Maybe it was in the signing thread (link). The swing just looks like he really leaves his lower half out of it.

...

 

EDIT2: Here is the post that linked to the video I was remembering. Anyway, I'm just not thrilled with this pick in round 2. Looks like a guy who will have to have his swing broken down & reconstructed if he wants to be anything more than a slappy or gap hitter. I realize he's young & there's definitely time for said overhaul, but the first comp. I think of when I watch him swing is a RH Nyjer Morgan.

 

 

 

So you're essentially taking your own scouting report and then questioning who the Brewers have rated as BPA? Not trying to be a jerk, but you're the one who referenced something to the afect of "what happened to BPA." And these guys who reportedly watched him play on a REGULAR basis(As they said they saw him play as much as anyone else this year) and you've determined he's not the best player available?

 

 

I'm normally with you, you know that, but I think at times...on this board, the average fan is a little too quick to judge these elite draft pick(I'd say rounds 1-3 or so are the elite picks) because they didn't like what they saw on a youtube video and they vaguely compare to another player(who by the way...has had WAR's of 5.2 and 4.0 2 of the last 3 years).

 

 

It's not YOU that I'm sorta taking a stand agianst here. It's the TCO7's who came out IMMEDIATELY and complained and complained for(well, he still hasn't stopped) about the Jimmy Nelson pick because someone happened to use Suppan as a comp) and Jungman because he watched him pitch in the CWS for two starts, his two worst of the year.

 

Immediate judgements based on clips when these scouts watch these players play 6-8-10 times I think is foolish. Hey, we could have just drafted a future .275.385/.550 1B, a CF'er who can be an elite defender and hti .300/.350/.450 with great defense, and a RF'er with 40 HR potential who can hit for average and has a 70 arm.

 

Throw in Braun, Gamel, Weeks, a SS and 3B and things loook good. Just trying to paint the other side of the picture.

 

Really, if we get one of those players to reach one of those ceilings, I'll be happy..And so should most of us.

[HiAndTight]

but rather for the sake of saving money/being cheap).

 

How much do you want to bet that the Brewers will spend most or all of their bonus pool?

 

Well I'm not entirely sure that they're being cheap, but considering that there were many better players left on the board earlier in the draft and that Roache, Coulter, Hannigan, and Taylor are likely to sign somewhere around or below slot, I'm wondering if the appeal of saving money had something to do with many of these picks.

 

 

And there were all these better players on the board according to who?

 

 

"Considering there were many better players elft on the board earlier in the draft." And tell me how many times you went out and scouted ANY of these players? Or are you simply looking at a list and saying, "he rated higher than him, so he's better."

 

I don't recall, but weren't there "plenty of better players when we drafted Gallardo, Prince, and Braun?

 

 

And maybe signing these players did play SOME role into it. Maybe being able to get them at or below slot so they can try and grade a elite HS talent talent who fell like Rodon last year a pick we could have had for less than 100K more and who is now a possible top overall pick in the 2014 draft?

 

 

 

It just drives me nuts these draft day experts who see only a microcosm of the whole process and then accuse the team of being cheap because you heard from this site this player was rated higher.

 

Gets my blood boiling a little bit. Even with Braun, he blows everyone in his class out in WAR save for Tulo who he's still 2 Wins above despite playing jsut 40 more games.

 

Drafts takes at least 5 years to be evaluated. Much les on the spot evaluation.

[jmeks23]

I have to agree. Just because they didn't take the guy you like doesn't mean they made a bad pick. All of the first 4 guys have high upside, and that's really all you look for when you're picking 27, 28 and 38. Roache if healthy might have been in the top 15 and Coulter (though some are more down on him than others) was rated as the best high school Catcher. Haniger may have been more of an unknown to US, but to the scouts he profiles as a RF with power and a good eye at the plate. If he sniffs that projection then I'll be ecstatic, whether there was other players we thought were 'better' or not. The MLB draft is by far the most subjective of all the professional sports drafts because of what others have mentioned. This isn't a bunch of players that have been seen week in and week out by people on TV/in their local stadium. These are guys that get almost exclusively seen by SCOUTS. Who get paid to grade players out, unlike us who look at THEIR scouting reports and a crappy handheld camera video from behind the backstop of the guy. That's why you see Keith Law bashing the Brewers picks and others praising them. It's ridiculous, particularly for Law who will inevitably be WRONG on 75% of his top 50 rated guys.

 

I'm not personally happy they didn't take Gallo or Smoral with one of their first 3 picks either, but I embrace the Brewers choices and honestly I don't give my hopes up on ANY of them. They could all be HOF'ers or they could all be busts. That's why grading drafts immediately after they occur is absurd.

[splitterpfj]

jmeks, I'll give your post a C+.

[jmeks23]

jmeks, I'll give your post a C+.

 

 

You're being generous, it was a C- at best.

[TooLiveBrew]

So you're essentially taking your own scouting report and then questioning who the Brewers have rated as BPA? Not trying to be a jerk, but you're the one who referenced something to the afect of "what happened to BPA."

 

When I read that some evaluators had questions about Taylor's swing, I wanted to watch some video, and I felt like I saw some of what said evaluators were talking about. So yes, then I question whether or not Taylor was actually BPA at that point, since there seemed to be several HS arms regarded to have high ceilings still available. I don't doubt that if Taylor overhauls his swing & discovers a power stroke that he'll be tremendously valuable... it's that I question whether or not he was really BPA.

 

And in doing so, I don't claim to be any kind of a scout (even a bad one). But I also don't think it's unreasonable to see two very formulaic looking first-few-rounds-strategies in back-to-back seasons & question what's going on.

[CheezWizHed]

jmeks, I'll give your post a C+.

 

 

You're being generous, it was a C- at best.

 

More like a B.

 

Your words have great power potential and your defense of ideas was also strong. But sentence structure is a little weak. I think you need to hold your elbow higher when you write.

 

Granted, I based all of that on one post that I read...

[nate82]

And in doing so, I don't claim to be any kind of a scout (even a bad one). But I also don't think it's unreasonable to see two very formulaic looking first-few-rounds-strategies in back-to-back seasons & question what's going on.

 

I don't think you can take what happened last year and correlate it with what happened this year. Yes the Brewers drafted heavy in terms of bats but it may have just fell that way. The Brewers may have saw that the players they drafted were the BPA on their board. Not to say that they truly were the BPA talent wise but you have to remember teams are still drafting both on talent and signability. I don't believe the signability is ever going to go away in the MLB draft no matter what MLB does to try and correct this.

[CheezWizHed]

I remember there was a similar outcry a few years back when the Brewers had a major hole of 3B in the system. And they drafted 2 in the top 4 rounds including the 3rd 3B of the draft with the 5th pick overall.

 

I can't complain about the 2005 draft, even though neither Braun nor Gamel stuck at 3B. But at least Taylor Green (25th round) stuck at 3B...

[Mass Haas]

Victor Roache signs

[HiAndTight]

Victor Roache signs

 

 

 

For what I read was slightly below slot value?

 

I think this is going to be beneficial with a lot of players signing earlier and getting into camp.

 

When's the last time we saw our 1st round pick playing right out of the gate? Of course we've drafted quite a few pitchers and HS pitchers we move slowly, college arms we are careful with because they've thrown a lot of innings.

 

But it'll be nice to see him play for Helena(guessing) and hopefully get off to a .400 start and pop a few HR's to give us some hope coming into next year. I mean, Trout went 28th(or 27th)...the pick that we were SUPPOSE TO HAVE(calm down....starting to turn green...shirt starting to tear....woo-saa.....alright...better now) when the Yankees decided to sign Mark Texiera as well and based on the flawless system Trout was snatched right out of our hands because we had the #2 FA and the Yankee's signed both #1 AND #2. God I with Tex was a Red Sox right now.

[Raw Biz]

Victor Roache signs

 

 

 

For what I read was slightly below slot value?

 

I think this is going to be beneficial with a lot of players signing earlier and getting into camp.

 

When's the last time we saw our 1st round pick playing right out of the gate? Of course we've drafted quite a few pitchers and HS pitchers we move slowly, college arms we are careful with because they've thrown a lot of innings.

 

But it'll be nice to see him play for Helena(guessing) and hopefully get off to a .400 start and pop a few HR's to give us some hope coming into next year. I mean, Trout went 28th(or 27th)...the pick that we were SUPPOSE TO HAVE(calm down....starting to turn green...shirt starting to tear....woo-saa.....alright...better now) when the Yankees decided to sign Mark Texiera as well and based on the flawless system Trout was snatched right out of our hands because we had the #2 FA and the Yankee's signed both #1 AND #2. God I with Tex was a Red Sox right now.

 

I don't know if you actually read anything about Roache but he broke his wrist and had pins and such inserted. He most likely will not be playing anywhere this summer.

[HiAndTight]

I remember there was a similar outcry a few years back when the Brewers had a major hole of 3B in the system. And they drafted 2 in the top 4 rounds including the 3rd 3B of the draft with the 5th pick overall.

 

I can't complain about the 2005 draft, even though neither Braun nor Gamel stuck at 3B. But at least Taylor Green (25th round) stuck at 3B...

 

 

Yeah, I see no need for an outcry.

 

If Coultier, (who I LOVE being someone who wrestled for 18 years) is as good of a bat as we think he is, who cares what year we got him? Same with Roache? And last year was one of the deepest drafts for college arms in a while. So we picked two college arms.

 

You can't take two seasons and try and pick up on some trend. It literally takes more than two years for there to be a trend.

 

What I do know is we picked a guy(and already signed him) that we'd never have been able to have drafted 6 months ago and has huge power, a Catcher with a VERY strong arm and who's bat could play at 3rd or 1st base, and a CF'er with good OB skills and speed in our first three picks. In a system lacking big league talent.

 

 

Lets wait t see if we can get all our top 20 picks locked up before complaining, because there are some good things in there.

[TooLiveBrew]

I wasn't aware I'd reached "outcry" level. Sorry about that, folks.

 

 

I mean, Trout went 28th(or 27th)...the pick that we were SUPPOSE TO HAVE(calm down....starting to turn green...shirt starting to tear....woo-saa.....alright...better now) when the Yankees decided to sign Mark Texiera as well

 

This had me chuckling... I know that was a difficult time for you.

 

 

... in our first three picks.

 

To be nitpicky, the third pick was Haniger, while Taylor was #4.

[splitterpfj]

Coulter has signed, these are moving quickly.

[HiAndTight]

Victor Roache signs

 

 

 

For what I read was slightly below slot value?

 

I think this is going to be beneficial with a lot of players signing earlier and getting into camp.

 

When's the last time we saw our 1st round pick playing right out of the gate? Of course we've drafted quite a few pitchers and HS pitchers we move slowly, college arms we are careful with because they've thrown a lot of innings.

 

But it'll be nice to see him play for Helena(guessing) and hopefully get off to a .400 start and pop a few HR's to give us some hope coming into next year. I mean, Trout went 28th(or 27th)...the pick that we were SUPPOSE TO HAVE(calm down....starting to turn green...shirt starting to tear....woo-saa.....alright...better now) when the Yankees decided to sign Mark Texiera as well and based on the flawless system Trout was snatched right out of our hands because we had the #2 FA and the Yankee's signed both #1 AND #2. God I with Tex was a Red Sox right now.

 

I don't know if you actually read anything about Roache but he broke his wrist and had pins and such inserted. He most likely will not be playing anywhere this summer.

 

 

 

"I don't know if you actually read anything?" Little arrogant, wouldn't you say?

 

And yeah, I read HIS comments that says he thinks he can start taking full swings in 3 weeks and his wrist is feeling good.

 

I was under the impression that he'd be ready earlier. Still, a touch on the pretentious side, no?

[Mass Haas]

Arrogant and pretentious are buzzwords that obviously aren't banned, but are only going to continue to steer conversation away from the subject at hand, and into a more personal direction.

 

Regardless of what was read, not read, etc., just letting everyone know (not just HiAndTight) that the focus of the discussion in this thread is picks in rounds 1-5.

 

On that note, all I've seen thus far is that Roache may be able to particpate in fall instructionals. The info HiAndTight provides seems like August may be a possibility, which would be great, obviously.

[HiAndTight]

I wasn't aware I'd reached "outcry" level. Sorry about that, folks.

 

 

I mean, Trout went 28th(or 27th)...the pick that we were SUPPOSE TO HAVE(calm down....starting to turn green...shirt starting to tear....woo-saa.....alright...better now) when the Yankees decided to sign Mark Texiera as well

 

This had me chuckling... I know that was a difficult time for you.

 

 

... in our first three picks.

 

To be nitpicky, the third pick was Haniger, while Taylor was #4.

 

 

Yeah, I was talking about Haniger with regard to the CF'er and simply forgot about Roache, a corner OF'er, a RF'er who BA had going #9 before the season started and who Law absolutely ripped apart for us taking and reaching for.

 

 

Taylor seems a little too far away to me to to get excited about.

 

Either way, regardless of Roache, I hope we get to see these guys in AZ and Helena this year to get a feel for them.

 

 

Also pertty rare to get a guy in the 5th round with an 80 fastball..even with the screws in his elbow. Just improve on his slider and you could have a dominant closer.

[LouisEly]

I would say a majority of players who are labeled as great athletes have this designation. I am actually encouraged to see the Brewers selecting more athletic players.

 

Oh, I agree. The Brewers haven't spent many early picks on athletic, up-the-middle types and I wish they did more of it.

 

Like Brent Brewer? Being an athlete is nice, but the bottom line is that you have to be able to hit the ball.

[LouisEly]

I also have to say I agree with Greinke's comment that we should draft more hitters, fewer pitchers. If we get hitters to AAA, we can always trade them for pitching.

 

That's ironic, because I've always heard that its more "expensive" to trade for pitching than hitting...

 

See: Greinke, Zack

[heresrobin]

Rumor is that Mitch Haniger will sign on Thursday. Callis says a $1.2M bonus...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/brewers-to-sign-mitch-haniger.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[splitterpfj]

Haniger confirms, his deal is done.

[igor67]

One would think the Helena box scores are going to be pretty fun to follow with these guys at the top signing so fast. Too bad about Roache, not being able to join them.