Adam Dunn's Hall of Fame chances?

[HiAndTight]

I just can't see it at this point. Even with his HR's this season, his OBP is just barely over .300. He is literally providing one thing, and one thing only, and that's homeruns. He's hitting .200, with a .300 OBP. He still takes walks, but a .302 OBP is hurting, not helping your team. He's strictly a DH at this point who can't run, doesn't hit (other than homeruns), and is now carrying a sub-par OBP. I know the "if he stays healthy for 5 more years" argument says that he can hit 600 homeruns, but I just can't see him getting enough PA's if he continues to OBP at such a terrible rate.

 

 

If he's still hitting 40 HR's a year, he'll have a job. Just like Carlos Pena who's older and has 309 PA's so far this year.

 

I don't think he'll have any problem landing jobs with teams like Tampa, KC, Minnesota, Houston, Oakland, Baltimore just among the teams that I think he'd be able to land with later on in his career.

 

And again, it's pretty much the consensus around here that BABIP is a stat determined in large part by luck, correct? His is actually at .214 right now, 71 points below his career average, and his strikeout rate is down. If his BABIP was just average his OBP and BA would be in line with his career norms. And he's averaged 145 games and 600+ PA's since he his second year in the league at 22.

 

 

Just playing devils advocate because he certainly doesn't look like a HR to me, but as we're moving out of the steroid era, the guy's still hitting 40 HR's a year, and even 700 HR's is within his reach without any allegations of steroid use.

[rwa12]

He's an interesting case, due to his one-dimensionality. I think a lot depends on how the next few years play out in the voting. I expect Biggio to get in next year. I'll be surprised if Bonds and Clemens don't get in within the next few. If the steroids guys get blackballed, rather than just punished by having to wait, then Dunn could make it. I wouldn't feel good about it, and he'd definitely be in the lower 5% of the guys in the hall (Bill Mazeroski fans have to be hoping he gets in, to take some heat off of Maz), but he'll have gaudy numbers.

 

My first reaction though was, seriously, Adam Dunn? I still think he could have been the greatest slow pitch softball player of all time. Maybe there's a Hall for that?

[MJLiverock]

He has no chance. He's out of the Top 100 in current active WAR (BB-ref). He's never finished higher than 21st in MVP voting. He's only twice been in the top ten in OBP. He's only once finished as high as 5th in SLG. He has no speed and no/negative defense. He's never been in the postseason.

 

 

Guys like that aren't Hall of Famers.

 

 

 

There are two things just absurdly flawed in this post.

 

1st-Your referencing WAR. It assumes that the majority of the writers look at WAR. It also takes what he's doing THIS season in which he's been incredibly unlucky with a .215 BABIP. AND his defense has always killed his WAR. If the writers made their decisions on "WAR," then Mike Trout would have been the MVP last year. But they didn't. RBI's and HR's gave Cabrera the edge over Trout by a wide margin.

 

2nd-You're stating that it's a FACT that he won't get in. That's just asinine. I don't look at Dunn and think he's a HOF'er, but based on the history of the writers, if he does end up with 600-650 HR's(and again, he's still just 33 years old) which isn't even a high projection based on recent years(again, 8 of the last 9 he's hit 38 or above).

 

Absurdly flawed? That seems a bit excessive and just as asinine as you getting upset that some completely dismiss Dunn's chances. Looking beyond WAR and its flaws and writers mentality you ignore the fact that the writers have never even deemed one single season in Dunn's career to be worthy of putting him the top 20 players in his league let alone all of baseball. The fact that his highest MVP vote season is 21st is pretty telling on where he ranks as a player vs. his peers. Not to mention a measly 2 AS game appearances. He doesn't meet any standard I would expect of a HOF player, even Greg Luzinski did better in MVP voting and AS game appearances. Dale Murphy can't get much above 20% in HOF voting and he is/was much better than Adam Dunn.

 

Just looking at the Baseball Reference page using their formulas for HOF he's not close and isn't going to get close because he only has one thing to build on, HRs:

 

 

Black Ink Batting - 4 (425), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 87 (270), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 73 (264), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 31 (296), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Left Field (131st), 16.4 career WAR/17.4 7yr-peak WAR/16.9 JAWS

Average HOF LF (out of 19) = 64.9 career WAR/41.4 7yr-peak WAR/53.1 JAWS

[Funketown]

Not all writers look at WAR, but WAR is strongly correlated with things writers do look at (HR's, hits, BB's, position).

 

Since 1990, there has been just one hitter to be elected into the HOF with fewer than 50 bWAR. Jim Rice had 47.1 bWAR in his career. Dunn has 16.4 bWAR. I'm willing to dismiss his terrible dWAR because he should have been a DH long ago. But even so that only adds a few WAR.

 

Writers don't make decisions based solely on WAR, but they do make their decisions based on the components which constitute WAR. If Dunn makes the HoF, he will unquestionably be the worst player elected in recent memory, and it won't even be close.

[HiAndTight]

He has no chance. He's out of the Top 100 in current active WAR (BB-ref). He's never finished higher than 21st in MVP voting. He's only twice been in the top ten in OBP. He's only once finished as high as 5th in SLG. He has no speed and no/negative defense. He's never been in the postseason.

 

 

Guys like that aren't Hall of Famers.

 

 

 

There are two things just absurdly flawed in this post.

 

1st-Your referencing WAR. It assumes that the majority of the writers look at WAR. It also takes what he's doing THIS season in which he's been incredibly unlucky with a .215 BABIP. AND his defense has always killed his WAR. If the writers made their decisions on "WAR," then Mike Trout would have been the MVP last year. But they didn't. RBI's and HR's gave Cabrera the edge over Trout by a wide margin.

 

2nd-You're stating that it's a FACT that he won't get in. That's just asinine. I don't look at Dunn and think he's a HOF'er, but based on the history of the writers, if he does end up with 600-650 HR's(and again, he's still just 33 years old) which isn't even a high projection based on recent years(again, 8 of the last 9 he's hit 38 or above).

Absurdly flawed? That seems a bit excessive and just as asinine as you getting upset that some completely dismiss Dunn's chances. Looking beyond WAR and its flaws and writers mentality you ignore the fact that the writers have never even deemed one single season in Dunn's career to be worthy of putting him the top 20 players in his league let alone all of baseball. The fact that his highest MVP vote season is 21st is pretty telling on where he ranks as a player vs. his peers. Not to mention a measly 2 AS game appearances. He doesn't meet any standard I would expect of a HOF player, even Greg Luzinski did better in MVP voting and AS game appearances. Dale Murphy can't get much above 20% in HOF voting and he is/was much better than Adam Dunn.

 

Just looking at the Baseball Reference page using their formulas for HOF he's not close and isn't going to get close because he only has one thing to build on, HRs:

 

 

Black Ink Batting - 4 (425), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 87 (270), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 73 (264), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 31 (296), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Left Field (131st), 16.4 career WAR/17.4 7yr-peak WAR/16.9 JAWS

Average HOF LF (out of 19) = 64.9 career WAR/41.4 7yr-peak WAR/53.1 JAWS

 

 

Now when my argument is based on the fact that writers historically have liked counting numbers more than stats like WAR which 99 pct of the general public doesn't understand. And then you continue to cite it.

 

And no, I'm not getting personally upset as I'm not invested into this emotionally. I actually started the thread because I thought it was interesting. I don't think Adam Dunn is a HOF'er. But he's an INCREDIBLY reliable HR hitter, and guys who hit lots of HR's without the stink of steroids get into the HOF.

[HiAndTight]

He's an interesting case, due to his one-dimensionality. I think a lot depends on how the next few years play out in the voting. I expect Biggio to get in next year. I'll be surprised if Bonds and Clemens don't get in within the next few. If the steroids guys get blackballed, rather than just punished by having to wait, then Dunn could make it. I wouldn't feel good about it, and he'd definitely be in the lower 5% of the guys in the hall (Bill Mazeroski fans have to be hoping he gets in, to take some heat off of Maz), but he'll have gaudy numbers.

 

My first reaction though was, seriously, Adam Dunn? I still think he could have been the greatest slow pitch softball player of all time. Maybe there's a Hall for that?

 

 

What amazes me is that he was actually a good athlete coming up. Not a great athlete, but he wasn't this big plodding clogger he is now.

 

And your first sentence is what makes him so intriguing. Unlike others, I think Dunn could play into his 40's. Does anyone really think it's hard to imagine a 40 year old Dunn playing DH for the Yankees in a platoon situation hitting 25 or so HR's? Of course he's still likely going to strike out 30 pct of the time(or more) and walk 12-15 pct of the time and end up hitting .220, but there is value in that.

 

 

If this was 15 years ago, I don't think there would be a debate. He's very likely to end up with 600 plus, or at least upper 500's in HR's. Writers have their milestones that make you an unquestioned HOF'er. 500 HR's has always been that in MLB.

 

Mow MAYBE because of the omission of guys like Sosa, Bonds, Raffy, Big Mac and others who are tied to steroids like shoelaces, the writers will have the guts to take away these arbitrary guidelines for making the HOF which has left out more worthy candidates than it's let in IMO.

 

Now this isn't exactly Bill James or Cameron and I don't agree with all the players on the list, but he does make some valid arguments in here, both on the first page about sports writers being stuck in an antiquated way of thinking, and some of the players who've made it. Guys like Maz who you mentioned, or Rizzuto. Of course the guy also claims Eck shouldn't be a HOF'er because he was a reliever ignoring the fact that he was a stud pitcher at age 20 and a 20 game winner by 23/24 and started for 8-9 years.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1093821-ranking-the-25-least-deserving-mlb-hall-of-famers-and-who-should-replace-them/page/8