Adam Dunn's Hall of Fame chances?

[igor67]

Dunn does two of the most important things very well, his biggest problem is that everything else he does poorly. Not so-so, but comfortably below average. The speed and defense would take him down a peg, but I'd say his biggest problem is actually his batting average. It turns out that having ridiculously low averages does hurt. Despite all the HRs his career SLG is only .505. That's a reflection of relatively few doubles and singles to go with those over the fencers. I had thought of him having a better chance that many, but when I peaked at those numbers he does indeed seem like he has almost no shot, unless he has a flukey long career and piles up HRs.

[adambr2]

He has zero chance.

 

 

Well, with all due respect, I believe that's ridiculous.

 

Adam Dunn would have to struggle to be at 400 HR's by the end of this year and should EASILY be at about 410 HR's. He's 32 years old.

 

Lets say he plays another 8 years and averages 25 Hr's a year(very low, but for the sake of argument). That would put him at about 610 HR's.

 

And you're going to tell me that when not a single player who has hit 500 HR's without the stink of roids on him or has admitted to using them HASN'T made the HOF, this player who could EASILY surpass 600 HR's has "zero chance?"

 

Sorry, this is a pet peeve for me. To me, he doesn't FEEL like a HOF'er, but to just blandly throw out there that he has ZERO chance of being a HOF'er...which...given the career he's had to this point at 32 years of age is ridiculous.

 

 

He has ZERO chance. He is a career .243 hitter who has stuck out at a 34% clip over the course of his career. Never once in my life have I ever thought "Wow, Adam Dunn is absolutely dominant." The HOF is supposed to be for those WOW type players who were dominant MVP types while they played.

 

Again, I personally think he should have zero chance to get it.

 

Certainly many have that opinion but you used two statistics, batting average and strikeouts, that aren't very good measures of a player IMO. He has a career .374 on-base percentage. Just my opinion, but if you're getting on base at a .374 clip, and I'm a voter, I don't care what your batting average is. There are lots of players in the HOF with a lot lower OBP's and OPS'es. Our own Yount, for instance, at .342 and .772.

 

And not that it changes the point (he does strike out a lot), but Dunn has struck out 27.9% of his plate appearances in his career, not 34%. That's a lot more fair measurement than the percentage of AB's that you used which doesn't give him credit for any of his walks.

[craigharmann]

Dunn has as much of a chance to make the HOF as his pseudo-lookalike, Will Ferrell, of winning an Oscar for best actor in a drama.

[thebruce44]

Yeah, Weeks' is pretty much a parallel to Dunn right now, except that, hopefully, Weeks' won't last all season -- though I am not nearly as confident about that as I was a month ago.

 

Weeks actually has a slightly higher OPS right now than Dunn had all of last season, so if you want to get an idea of just how bad Dunn's 2011 somehow was, Weeks is giving us a pretty good idea.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but I wonder if 3 months ago, the White Sox would have let us take Dunn off their hands for nothing.

 

Don't forget position. I can't remember anything like Dunn's 2011. Dunn posted a -2.9 WAR. Weeks is on pace for a -1.8.

[3and2Fastball]

Adam Dunn now has 22 HR's and 99 strikeouts this season. He is on pace for 57 HR's, 126 walks, and 255 strikeouts (.226/.368/.940!). The 255 strikeouts would obliterate Mark Reynolds' record of 223 strikeouts in a single season.

 

A season like that'll get you "famous"

[adambr2]

Wow, and I thought Weeks' 75 K's so far this season was bad.

 

Of course, if Weeks had 22 HR's so far this season, I'd be fine with his strikeout total.

[Mr QL]

Get to 500-600 HRs and win a WS or two

[dlk9s]

Mid-way through the White Sox game tonight, Dunn is now 8-13 with 4 homers in his career off Kershaw.

[HiAndTight]

Can someone please answer two questions for me?

 

A-How is the the "type of player who doesn't age well?" He's exactly the type of player that "ages well," based on his stats. What type of player OTHER than a very large, extremely strong man with great OB skills and power has a skill set that ages better? Those players are the most likely to continue to produce well as they age.

 

B-Taking steroids out of the equation;

How many players haven't made the HOF with 500, which at this point is almost a lock for Dunn?

 

I'll also once again give Ender a chance to explain how we're braindead and explain how his numbers have continued to drop the last 5 years when it be difficult to find a player who's numbers have been MORE consistent? '11 was obviously terrible, but every other season was outstanding, and he's on pace for almost 60 bombs this year.

 

In fact, when it's come to hitting a lot of HR's and posting a high OPS, he's been extraordinarily consistent.

 

I'll guess he ends up with about 575 HR's and he will get in.

Though I don't believe he should.

[brettac1]

Can someone please answer two questions for me?

 

A-How is the the "type of player who doesn't age well?" He's exactly the type of player that "ages well," based on his stats. What type of player OTHER than a very large, extremely strong man with great OB skills and power has a skill set that ages better? Those players are the most likely to continue to produce well as they age.

 

B-Taking steroids out of the equation;

How many players haven't made the HOF with 500, which at this point is almost a lock for Dunn?

 

I'll also once again give Ender a chance to explain how we're braindead and explain how his numbers have continued to drop the last 5 years when it be difficult to find a player who's numbers have been MORE consistent? '11 was obviously terrible, but every other season was outstanding, and he's on pace for almost 60 bombs this year.

 

In fact, when it's come to hitting a lot of HR's and posting a high OPS, he's been extraordinarily consistent.

 

I'll guess he ends up with about 575 HR's and he will get in.

Though I don't believe he should.

The part that doesn't age well is that he has always had a low batting average for his whole career. He's not a .285 hitter that loses a little bat speed and becomes a .250 hitter. As I said earlier in this thread, low batting average is part of the skillset. Guys that age well that have patience and power were also able to carry an average. Players that age well do a lot of things well, not one or two. That's why Ryan Braun is the guy that you look to extend if you have to choose between him and Prince Fielder. There's a lot less of a chance that four skills (just an example) will fall apart at the same time and leave you with a useless player than there is that two will.

[Funketown]

Dunn's HR/FB % this season is 36.5. That's absurd!

[brettac1]

He's made me very happy that I drafted him on all of my fantasy teams this year. I think the highest I took him was the 17th round and that was in a 14 team league.

[gregmag]

He has zero chance.

 

 

Well, with all due respect, I believe that's ridiculous.

 

Adam Dunn would have to struggle to be at 400 HR's by the end of this year and should EASILY be at about 410 HR's. He's 32 years old.

 

Lets say he plays another 8 years and averages 25 Hr's a year(very low, but for the sake of argument). That would put him at about 610 HR's.

 

And you're going to tell me that when not a single player who has hit 500 HR's without the stink of roids on him or has admitted to using them HASN'T made the HOF, this player who could EASILY surpass 600 HR's has "zero chance?"

 

Sorry, this is a pet peeve for me. To me, he doesn't FEEL like a HOF'er, but to just blandly throw out there that he has ZERO chance of being a HOF'er...which...given the career he's had to this point at 32 years of age is ridiculous.

 

 

He has ZERO chance. He is a career .243 hitter who has stuck out at a 34% clip over the course of his career. Never once in my life have I ever thought "Wow, Adam Dunn is absolutely dominant." The HOF is supposed to be for those WOW type players who were dominant MVP types while they played.

 

Again, I personally think he should have zero chance to get it.

 

I have to disagree with you about a couple of things. First, the HOF isn't just limited to "dominant MVP types." It's possible to be exceptionally consistent for a long time and deserve to be in the HOF; Molitor is a guy like that. This is the peak vs. career argument. Some people argued that Eddie Murray shouldn't get in because he never really had that one dominant season -- in WAR terms, he never topped 6.3. But he topped 4.4 ten times, which is fairly remarkable. Same with Molitor -- no seasons over 6.3 WAR, but eleven seasons over 4. Among pitchers, you could say the same thing about Don Sutton.

 

Second, I think chickinbrickin is right to call you out for saying Dunn has zero chance. First of all, I agree with you that Dunn shouldn't get in. But that's a different question than whether he has a chance to get in. Dunn has a very good chance to hit more HRs than any non-HOFer has ever hit. That makes him, by definition, an interesting case. If he gets to 600, or even 550, I can absolutely imagine how the HOF voters might decide that he belonged; and, FWIW, he wouldn't be the worst player in the HOF if he made it. Again, I don't think he should get in. But saying "I personally think he should have zero chance to get it" is like saying "I personally think Rhett Miller's new album should top the Billboard charts" (which I do) -- it has nothing to do with how the world actually is.

[HiAndTight]

Of course, and I would certainly agree. But wouldn't you agree prior to Big Mac, Bonds, Raffy and Sosa, all pretty much believed to have used PED's by the majority of people, that 500 HR's was a guarantee you'd get in?

 

And I think you're answering half the question. YOUR opinion on it. I'm talking about the writers. You know a lot of them aren't comparing year to year..they're just looking at the 500-550 or even more HR's(assuming a decline, but not a HUGE one over the next 7 years).

 

It's a tough question to answer though before you know where he ends up obviously. He could just as easily have an extremely steep decline.

 

Anyway, he may very well be one of the first litmus tests for if 500 is still automatic entry into the HOF.

Yeah, it's certainly an interesting discussion -- I love threads like these. The "is 500 HRs an automatic Hall(of Fame) pass?" question's particularly interesting.

 

And it'll be fun to see how many HRs Dunn can chase down before he has to hang 'em up. Like you noted ('The' Dew Deck shot, because, yeah... I think everyone remembers that shot), he's not exactly lacking for power.

 

Just bumping the old thread.

Dunn with 23 HR's right now, and the White Sox hottest hitter after finishing with 41 HR's last year, the second most of his career.

 

439 HR's already in his age 33 season. He has a legit chance to finish his age 34 season with 500.

 

 

Another very poor season with the BA, but he keeps hitting 40 HR's a year(he's on pace again for 40+ HR's this year.

 

And his BABIP this year is .215, so he's been incredibly unlucky. BB and K% are down. I have no real rooting interest here other than I would take some satisfaction from seeing Dunn hit 600 after ender called anyone brainless who thought he had a chance to get in. It's actually amazing how consistent he's been hitting 40 HR's throughout his career.

 

8 of the last 9 seasons he's hit at least 38, two years he hit 38, 4 with 40 and 46 and 41.

[Funketown]

Dunn shouldn't have a chance to get in. Based on recent HOF votes, I wouldn't bet on him getting in. But if he gets close, I won't be shocked.

 

Check out the bottom of Dunn's B-Ref page with his leaderboard ranks. He's a Hall of Very Good guy at best.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

[Outlander]

One of the good things about the steroid era is that 500 HRs is no longer a guarantee for the hof, heck 700 isn't a guarantee. I imagine Dunn never gets elected no matter how many he hits.

[JimH5]

He has no chance. He's out of the Top 100 in current active WAR (BB-ref). He's never finished higher than 21st in MVP voting. He's only twice been in the top ten in OBP. He's only once finished as high as 5th in SLG. He has no speed and no/negative defense. He's never been in the postseason.

 

 

Guys like that aren't Hall of Famers.

[jerichoholicninja]

If he's stays healthy, by the end of his career he should be top 15-20 in homeruns without any steroid allegations (so far). That alone should get anyone in.

[JimH5]

If he's stays healthy, by the end of his career he should be top 15-20 in homeruns without any steroid allegations (so far). That alone should get anyone in.

 

When Dave Kingman retired, he was in the Top 20, and he's never sniffed the HOF.

 

Edgar Martinez has a 68.3 career WAR. .312/.418/.515

David Ortiz has a 41.9 career WAR. .286/.381/.550

Carlos Delgado has a 44.3 career WAR. .280/.383/.546

Dunn has a 16.5 career WAR. .238/.367/.498

 

Dunn's problem is that after 2014, he's a free agent, and I suspect he'll be on a series of 1-year contracts after that. He can't run, he can't field a position, he can't hit lefties. So I don't think he's going to be around into his late 30s.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's very doubtful Dunn can push his name in to the HOF with his overall numbers. I mean he's not hitting .200 over the last 3 seasons. It's wishful thinking he can continue being a 40HR guy for a team over the next 3-5 seasons. He's aging, and his BA sits below .200 for the last 3 seasons, who's to say it doesn't become .165 over the next 3 seasons? As JimH posted he's a career .238 hitter and it's declining. So he may reach 550HRs but be a .224 hitter when it's all said and Dunn. Can you really put a Player in the HOF who's batting closer to the Mendoza line? I doubt he'll even reach 2,000 hits. So, we'd be looking at a player with 1800 hits in the HOF batting .225 but he had 550 HRs? If Dunn didn't hit 40HRs, if he hit 25-30, do you think he'd even be on a ML roster?

 

His highest RBI single season total is 106. For a guy who hits 40HRs a season that phenomenally low to not have some random 130-140RBI season. It doesn't show he was exceptional in the clutch. Pretty amazing really to look at his splits and essentially he's a .224-.238 BA with Men on or in the Clutch. Exactly on tap for his Career BA.

 

16.5 career WAR doesn't bode well for him either. -2WAR every season on average defensively. The "Eye Test" with numbers show nothing that should make him considered a HOF candidate.

In a different ERA before SOs were deemed okay, he wouldn't have stayed on a team with his numbers. He Can't Hit! But when he does he hits HRs. I just can't see him getting in the HOF because he strictly was one of the "Most consistent HR hitting over his nothing else special Career" All those HRs but he never Once lead his League in them in any 1 season.

 

If you are going to go in to the HOF because of your ability to hit HRs. You had better have a few seasons of leading your League in HRs hit. Dunn hasn't done that.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I just can't see it at this point. Even with his HR's this season, his OBP is just barely over .300. He is literally providing one thing, and one thing only, and that's homeruns. He's hitting .200, with a .300 OBP. He still takes walks, but a .302 OBP is hurting, not helping your team. He's strictly a DH at this point who can't run, doesn't hit (other than homeruns), and is now carrying a sub-par OBP. I know the "if he stays healthy for 5 more years" argument says that he can hit 600 homeruns, but I just can't see him getting enough PA's if he continues to OBP at such a terrible rate.

[danzig6767]

He has no chance. He's out of the Top 100 in current active WAR (BB-ref). He's never finished higher than 21st in MVP voting. He's only twice been in the top ten in OBP. He's only once finished as high as 5th in SLG. He has no speed and no/negative defense. He's never been in the postseason.

 

 

Guys like that aren't Hall of Famers.

 

When Dave Kingman retired, he was in the Top 20, and he's never sniffed the HOF.

 

Edgar Martinez has a 68.3 career WAR. .312/.418/.515

David Ortiz has a 41.9 career WAR. .286/.381/.550

Carlos Delgado has a 44.3 career WAR. .280/.383/.546

Dunn has a 16.5 career WAR. .238/.367/.498

 

Dunn's problem is that after 2014, he's a free agent, and I suspect he'll be on a series of 1-year contracts after that. He can't run, he can't field a position, he can't hit lefties. So I don't think he's going to be around into his late 30s.

 

I agree with both of these posts by you.

 

Plus, for me at least, i really dislike putting players in any HOF who never were one of the better players in the game, even for just a few years.

[Funketown]

My preference is also for guys who at least dominate the league for a few years. To me, a guy like Sandy Koufax, who is short of the 60 WAR mark, is an absolute no-brainer first ballot HOF'er for me, because he was historically dominant for a few years toward the end of his career.

[HiAndTight]

One of the good things about the steroid era is that 500 HRs is no longer a guarantee for the hof, heck 700 isn't a guarantee. I imagine Dunn never gets elected no matter how many he hits.

 

 

700 isn't a guarantee? Because Bonds, the poster boy for steroids didn't get in his first chance?

 

I would say if someone hits 700 HR's without the stench of roids like Bonds, they're a lock.

 

I still think 600 is a lock if a guy isn't connected with steroids.

[HiAndTight]

He has no chance. He's out of the Top 100 in current active WAR (BB-ref). He's never finished higher than 21st in MVP voting. He's only twice been in the top ten in OBP. He's only once finished as high as 5th in SLG. He has no speed and no/negative defense. He's never been in the postseason.

 

 

Guys like that aren't Hall of Famers.

 

 

 

There are two things just absurdly flawed in this post.

 

1st-Your referencing WAR. It assumes that the majority of the writers look at WAR. It also takes what he's doing THIS season in which he's been incredibly unlucky with a .215 BABIP. AND his defense has always killed his WAR. If the writers made their decisions on "WAR," then Mike Trout would have been the MVP last year. But they didn't. RBI's and HR's gave Cabrera the edge over Trout by a wide margin.

 

2nd-You're stating that it's a FACT that he won't get in. That's just asinine. I don't look at Dunn and think he's a HOF'er, but based on the history of the writers, if he does end up with 600-650 HR's(and again, he's still just 33 years old) which isn't even a high projection based on recent years(again, 8 of the last 9 he's hit 38 or above).