Adam Dunn's Hall of Fame chances?

[TooLiveBrew]

Of course, and I would certainly agree. But wouldn't you agree prior to Big Mac, Bonds, Raffy and Sosa, all pretty much believed to have used PED's by the majority of people, that 500 HR's was a guarantee you'd get in?

 

And I think you're answering half the question. YOUR opinion on it. I'm talking about the writers. You know a lot of them aren't comparing year to year..they're just looking at the 500-550 or even more HR's(assuming a decline, but not a HUGE one over the next 7 years).

 

It's a tough question to answer though before you know where he ends up obviously. He could just as easily have an extremely steep decline.

 

Anyway, he may very well be one of the first litmus tests for if 500 is still automatic entry into the HOF.

Yeah, it's certainly an interesting discussion -- I love threads like these. The "is 500 HRs an automatic Hall(of Fame) pass?" question's particularly interesting.

 

And it'll be fun to see how many HRs Dunn can chase down before he has to hang 'em up. Like you noted ('The' Dew Deck shot, because, yeah... I think everyone remembers that shot), he's not exactly lacking for power.

[Ennder]

0% pretty much. If he produced like he did 5 years ago for an extended period then maybe but he has been almost below average for a number of years now. A bunch of clueless fans don't realize the stats have slipped but anyone with a brain can identify it.

[HiAndTight]

0% pretty much. If he produced like he did 5 years ago for an extended period then maybe but he has been almost below average for a number of years now. A bunch of clueless fans don't realize the stats have slipped but anyone with a brain can identify it.

 

 

 

Wow. That might be the most pretentious, arrogant comment I've read on here.

 

Clueless fans? Because we're speculating if he hits 500-550 or 600 HR's, all WELL within his reach if that "magic number," still gets you into the HOF? And you insult EVERYONE who doesn't agree with you in one swift comment?

 

Name one player eligible who hasn't been directly related, to PED's who HASN'T qualified for the HOF after hitting 500 HR's?

 

And yes, ALL of his stats have declined over the last few years(one year in reality with regard to the HR's which is the at the heart of this thread).

 

He hit 46 HR's, then 40 for 4 straight years, then 38 for two years.

That's 7 years.

LAST YEAR he had a terrible year, and now this year, he's back, has 17 HR's(on pace for 51) and an OPS of .929.

He's also leading the league in walks, has a .375 OBP, and again, is on pace for 52 HR's this year.

 

 

By the way, 5 years ago, he put up a line of;

.236/.386/.513 with an .898 OPS OPS+ of 131

He hit 40 HR's and had 100 RBI's.

 

THIS YEAR he's putting up a line of;

.226/.375/.554 OPS of .929 with an OPS of 147(the HIGHEST of his career)

And on pace for 52 HR's and 116 RBI's.

 

 

So yeah...I can ABSOLUTELY see why you'd say something as absolutely ridiculous as;

 

A bunch of clueless fans don't realize the stats have slipped but anyone with a brain can identify it.

 

And in fact, going back the last 5 years he has hit;

40,38,38,11(this year on pace again for 52).

If you go back another year it's 40/40/38/38/11

OPS lines of; .898/.928/.892/.569/.929

 

So the guy has been...amazingly consistent sans 2011, and has bounced back in a BIG way this year.

 

Don't want to upset the "Ender army," but who exactly are the clueless fans now?

 

So...in reality, his numbers slipped ONE year and his HR and OPS numbers have been remarkably similar, including this year in which he's on pace to set career highs.

[HiAndTight]

Of course, and I would certainly agree. But wouldn't you agree prior to Big Mac, Bonds, Raffy and Sosa, all pretty much believed to have used PED's by the majority of people, that 500 HR's was a guarantee you'd get in?

 

And I think you're answering half the question. YOUR opinion on it. I'm talking about the writers. You know a lot of them aren't comparing year to year..they're just looking at the 500-550 or even more HR's(assuming a decline, but not a HUGE one over the next 7 years).

 

It's a tough question to answer though before you know where he ends up obviously. He could just as easily have an extremely steep decline.

 

Anyway, he may very well be one of the first litmus tests for if 500 is still automatic entry into the HOF.

Yeah, it's certainly an interesting discussion -- I love threads like these. The "is 500 HRs an automatic Hall(of Fame) pass?" question's particularly interesting.

 

And it'll be fun to see how many HRs Dunn can chase down before he has to hang 'em up. Like you noted ('The' Dew Deck shot, because, yeah... I think everyone remembers that shot), he's not exactly lacking for power.

 

 

[sarcasm]Well, you're OBVIOUSLY clueless....[/sarcasm]

 

 

Seriously though, I don't think he's a all-time great, which is what the HOF should be IMO. But it's undeniable that on the pace he's one(which again has been one of the most consistent HR hitting paces of any hitter of all time with the 46/40/40/40/40/38/38/11/(this year, already 17).

 

But the point of this thread was DOES he get in(I of course also asked if anyone thought he SHOULD get in if he continues at a decreased past over the next 7-8 years. Which again, if he just averages 25 HR's a year, a very conservative number, he'll be pushing for 600), MORE SO than SHOULD he get in.

 

Again, I've looked for and have failed to find a single player without the dark cloud of PED's hanging over their head who haven't made it having hit 500, much less 550 or 600.

[TooLiveBrew]

0% pretty much. If he produced like he did 5 years ago for an extended period then maybe but he has been almost below average for a number of years now. A bunch of clueless fans don't realize the stats have slipped but anyone with a brain can identify it.

I know you haven't been a believer in Dunn as he'll age, & I can't say I think he's not going to fall off a cliff at some point. But I think the question about him is interesting, since 500 HR has really been a benchmark.

[HiAndTight]

0% pretty much. If he produced like he did 5 years ago for an extended period then maybe but he has been almost below average for a number of years now. A bunch of clueless fans don't realize the stats have slipped but anyone with a brain can identify it.

I know you haven't been a believer in Dunn as he'll age, & I can't say I think he's not going to fall off a cliff at some point. But I think the question about him is interesting, since 500 HR has really been a benchmark.

 

 

Being a believer in how he'll age is besides the point. The fact is that Ender's wrong. His HR's, the stat in question here, have remained extremely consistent, as has his OPS and everything else I pointed out.

 

Though he profiles as the type of guy who's BA might drop, but who should be able to hit with more than enough power to get to 500 when he's still only 32.

[Funketown]

To answer the first question, I don't think Adam Dunn should get into the HOF unless he cracks 600 HR's.

 

To answer the second, I think there's a decent chance that he gets in, so long as he hits 500 HR's. There is yet to be somebody who played outside of the '90's who hasn't been voted in with 500 HR's. I think there's a good chance Dunn is the first player for whom 500 HR's is not enough, but it wouldn't surprise me either way.

 

Dunn doesn't need to age well to crack 500 HR's. So long as he doesn't completely fall off a cliff, there's no reason to believe he doesn't have a good chance to hit 100 HR's over his last 5-7 seasons (age 33-37/39).

[DuWayne Steurer]

Will he and should he are two different things.

 

He hits lots of homers, and takes lots of walks, so he's always had a good OPS, despite not being a good batting average guy.

 

There's several factors going against him however.....

 

1.) Despite being a premier power hitter, he's never won a homerun or RBI title.

2.) He's never been considered anything close to an elite player, or among the 'league's best'. He's never put up a 150 OPS+.

3.) He's a -24! defensive WAR for his career. I don't think anyone can argue that he's an absolute butcher in the field.

4.) He hasn't hit his decline years yet. He's an .878 OPS guy right now, and that's before his decline phase. It's very safe to say that when he retires, his career OPS may be somewhat lower than .878, and his career OPS+ will be somewhat lower than 127. (If I had to guess, I'd say somewhere around 120)

 

Because of his Homeruns and Walks skillset, he may hang around a while, even as the rest of his skills completely erode.

 

So, will he? I think there's about a 15-25% chance that he will be, based on what we know about how the sports-writers vote.

He will likely have a .235-ish batting average when he retires. We may all well know that batting average is not a good measuring stick of offensive value, but sports writers WILL hold it against him. Also, as previously mentioned, the fact that he's just never been considered a 'premier' talent will be held against him as well (IMO). He is a one-time all star.

 

Should he? I don't think so. Fred McGriff was a career .886 OPS guy. McGriff fell just short of 500 homers, but was better than Dunn in just about every other way (assuming Dunn makes it to 500, which I'm assuming he will).

 

So I think, rationally...........no, and no.

[Funketown]

I'm willing to discount his defensive WAR a bit because it's not really Dunn's fault the Reds and Nationals kept putting him in the OF. I think he should really be viewed as a poor fielding 1B / DH type than a player who put up abominable defensive numbers in the outfield for a decade.

 

Which means that ultimately he still shouldn't stand much of a chance unless he sticks around forever and gets to 600 HR's.

[3and2Fastball]

Anyone who hits 600 Home Runs without the assistance of steroids is an All-Time Great, no matter what our perceptions are of their value.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Anyone who hits 600 Home Runs without the assistance of steroids is an All-Time Great, no matter what our perceptions are of their value.

 

 

Dunn isn't quite 2/3rds of the way there, so I don't think it should be stated that he's a 600 homerun guy matter-of-factly. He's 32, and could hit his decline years hard, and not make it to 600, or even 550. Let's wait and see. I remember when Griffey Jr. was an absolute lock to get to 700.

 

Also, we're entering an era where 600 homeruns just isn't going to be looked at as the same kind of achievement as it used to be.

 

15 years ago, 3 guys ever had done it. Now 8 are on the list.

[adambr2]

Kind of off topic, but I didn't think I should be starting another Adam Dunn thread, but....

 

What in the world happened last year?? Dunn has been a force his entire career. He's never, ever OPS'ed less than .818. Then, overnight, .569??? Over an entire season?? He basically had a slump that lasted an entire season. You can understand a guy like that having an off-year, maybe a .750 OPS, maybe even .700. But .569?

 

He didn't just lose it, either, because this year he's back to being the same offensive beast he's been his entire career. So I can't even wrap my head around what happened with him last year. Something in his stance, his swing, that just never got corrected the whole season? Or just honestly one of those things that happened and there's really no explaining it? It's one of the most unlikely statistical things I've ever seen.

[TheCrew07]

I don't know, for statistical oddities Weeks' 2012 has to be right up there, especially if it continues. We're long past calling his problems a slump, we're into the 2nd full week of June.

[adambr2]

Yeah, Weeks' is pretty much a parallel to Dunn right now, except that, hopefully, Weeks' won't last all season -- though I am not nearly as confident about that as I was a month ago.

 

Weeks actually has a slightly higher OPS right now than Dunn had all of last season, so if you want to get an idea of just how bad Dunn's 2011 somehow was, Weeks is giving us a pretty good idea.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but I wonder if 3 months ago, the White Sox would have let us take Dunn off their hands for nothing.

[HiAndTight]

Will he and should he are two different things.

 

He hits lots of homers, and takes lots of walks, so he's always had a good OPS, despite not being a good batting average guy.

 

There's several factors going against him however.....

 

1.) Despite being a premier power hitter, he's never won a homerun or RBI title.

2.) He's never been considered anything close to an elite player, or among the 'league's best'. He's never put up a 150 OPS+.

3.) He's a -24! defensive WAR for his career. I don't think anyone can argue that he's an absolute butcher in the field.

4.) He hasn't hit his decline years yet. He's an .878 OPS guy right now, and that's before his decline phase. It's very safe to say that when he retires, his career OPS may be somewhat lower than .878, and his career OPS+ will be somewhat lower than 127. (If I had to guess, I'd say somewhere around 120)

 

Because of his Homeruns and Walks skillset, he may hang around a while, even as the rest of his skills completely erode.

 

So, will he? I think there's about a 15-25% chance that he will be, based on what we know about how the sports-writers vote.

He will likely have a .235-ish batting average when he retires. We may all well know that batting average is not a good measuring stick of offensive value, but sports writers WILL hold it against him. Also, as previously mentioned, the fact that he's just never been considered a 'premier' talent will be held against him as well (IMO). He is a one-time all star.

 

Should he? I don't think so. Fred McGriff was a career .886 OPS guy. McGriff fell just short of 500 homers, but was better than Dunn in just about every other way (assuming Dunn makes it to 500, which I'm assuming he will).

 

So I think, rationally...........no, and no.

 

 

 

I both respect and feel bad for the Crime Dog. If he hangs on for a couple more months, he gets 500 and is a HOF'er, but he retired when he didn't think he could play and ended up 7 HR's short.

 

I'll be honest, I look at Dunn and even at 600 HR's(which I think is about 30/70 right now since he's only 32 and 25 per year puts him over until he's 40) I don't see a HOF'er.

 

His defensive WAR ISN'T all his fault as he never should have played in LF, but he did. And he did go on that run of 46/40/40/40/38/30 run in a HR hitters park for the most part.

 

But it at about 50/50 he gets in if he hits 500.

[HiAndTight]

I don't know, for statistical oddities Weeks' 2012 has to be right up there, especially if it continues. We're long past calling his problems a slump, we're into the 2nd full week of June.

 

 

You watch Weeks and you already know what is going to happen as he steps up to the plate.

 

90-95 MPH right down the middle. Doesn't swing.

2nd pitch, slider low and away, strike 2.

3rd pitch, pop up lunging at the slider, or strike 3.

 

For the love of God, please someone tell him just to go up there and swing at the first pitch for the next 15 AB's and just see if he can finally hit a couple bomb's and get going. But I've never seen anything like Weeks. Anyone so talented, so erratic who DOESN'T have attitude problems and works as hard and cares as much and plays tougher than anyone.

 

 

Another option is to just put him on the DL for 15 days and go with Ransom/Green/Conrad playing 2nd. Just send him home to Florida. His WAR would be better there than it is now....and I love the guy.

[The stache]

He's been an All Star once in eleven seasons. Once. He's never lead the league in HR, RBI or SLG. He's never been in the top 20 in MVP. He's never won a silver slugger, or a gold glove.

 

In 5,598 AB's, he's struck out 1,903 times. By the end of the season, he may approach 300 K's for 2012. If he plays until he's 38 (5 more seasons), and averages 30 HR a year, that will put him over 500 HR. If he averages 180 K's a season for those 5 years, he's at nearly 3,000 strikeouts.

 

He's a one trick pony. He hits home runs, and that's all he does.

 

Dunn has never been an elite player, and has never been close to being an elite player. If you look at the Hall of Fame statistics listed on his baseball reference page, he's far off from consideration.

 

Hall Of Fame Statistics Player rank in (·)

Black Ink Batting - 4 (423), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 83 (289), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 59 (328), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 28 (371), Average HOFer ≈ 50

 

In my opinion, he has no chance at the Hall of Fame, nor should he. He's a modern day Dave Kingman without the pesky home run titles. Kingman was on the BBWAA ballot for one season. He got 0.7% of the vote, and dropped off.

[adambr2]

He's been an All Star once in eleven seasons. Once. He's never lead the league in HR, RBI or SLG. He's never been in the top 20 in MVP. He's never won a silver slugger, or a gold glove.

 

In 5,598 AB's, he's struck out 1,903 times. By the end of the season, he may approach 300 K's for 2012. If he plays until he's 38 (5 more seasons), and averages 30 HR a year, that will put him over 500 HR. If he averages 180 K's a season for those 5 years, he's at nearly 3,000 strikeouts.

 

He's a one trick pony. He hits home runs, and that's all he does.

 

Dunn has never been an elite player, and has never been close to being an elite player. If you look at the Hall of Fame statistics listed on his baseball reference page, he's far off from consideration.

 

Hall Of Fame Statistics Player rank in (·)

Black Ink Batting - 4 (423), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink Batting - 83 (289), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 59 (328), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 28 (371), Average HOFer ≈ 50

 

In my opinion, he has no chance at the Hall of Fame, nor should he. He's a modern day Dave Kingman without the pesky home run titles. Kingman was on the BBWAA ballot for one season. He got 0.7% of the vote, and dropped off.

 

Kingman had a lifetime OPS of .780, Dunn's is .878. One thing that Dunn has that Kingman never did is the ability to get on base. IMO his strikeout totals, and lack of a silver slugger or gold glove, are irrelevant to his HOF case.

 

I don't think he'll get in, but I think he's more than a one trick guy if you consider getting on base to be important, which I certainly do.

[3and2Fastball]

I consider OBP very important, but the problem with Dunn is he gets on base and then he's so slow he's a base clogger. At least when he was younger he could run a little

 

I do think he needs 600 HR's to be seriously considered for the HOF

[jerichoholicninja]

I consider OBP very important, but the problem with Dunn is he gets on base and then he's so slow he's a base clogger.

 

I didn't know Dusty Baker posted here.

[3and2Fastball]

I didn't know Dusty Baker posted here.

 

Ha! One of the few things I agree with Dusty Baker on.... On Base percentage is very important any way you look at it, but players who can get on base and run are much more valuable than Base Cloggers. Give me Rickey Henderson over Jimmy Foxx any day

[adambr2]

Dunn is slow, but I can't agree with Dusty on that. In my opinion, any phrase that even insinuates that getting on base is a bad thing is absurd. Once you get on base, a living turtle could round the bases at his own pace on a home run, and unless you're talking about someone who literally cannot run at all, you can still go station to station on any hit.

 

He offers you nothing in terms of stealing bases, going first to third on a single, etc, but IMO getting on base = good, regardless of who gets on base.

[reillymcshane]

The only way it happens if it he can keep producing for another 7-8 years, but that's not likely. His walks and HRs are awesome looking, but his batting average, terrible defense and sloth-like running skills take away so much of his value.

 

Even saber-metric types aren't going to value him - Fangraphs has him as averaging less than 2.5 WAR a year - he's only got 25 WAR over 11 or 12 years. That isn't hall worthy.

 

If he hangs out for 7-8 years and averages 30 HR, he could get to 600 HR. But that's a stretch. Guys like him to tend not to age well. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but even if he reaches 600 HR, he's going to have a sub-.250 BA. People will shake their heads at that. And they'll know he's been a DH/bad fielder all his career.

[chickinbrickin]

He has zero chance.

 

 

Well, with all due respect, I believe that's ridiculous.

 

Adam Dunn would have to struggle to be at 400 HR's by the end of this year and should EASILY be at about 410 HR's. He's 32 years old.

 

Lets say he plays another 8 years and averages 25 Hr's a year(very low, but for the sake of argument). That would put him at about 610 HR's.

 

And you're going to tell me that when not a single player who has hit 500 HR's without the stink of roids on him or has admitted to using them HASN'T made the HOF, this player who could EASILY surpass 600 HR's has "zero chance?"

 

Sorry, this is a pet peeve for me. To me, he doesn't FEEL like a HOF'er, but to just blandly throw out there that he has ZERO chance of being a HOF'er...which...given the career he's had to this point at 32 years of age is ridiculous.

 

 

He has ZERO chance. He is a career .243 hitter who has stuck out at a 34% clip over the course of his career. Never once in my life have I ever thought "Wow, Adam Dunn is absolutely dominant." The HOF is supposed to be for those WOW type players who were dominant MVP types while they played.

 

Again, I personally think he should have zero chance to get it.

[3and2Fastball]

He offers you nothing in terms of stealing bases, going first to third on a single, etc, but IMO getting on base = good, regardless of who gets on base.

 

yes, absolutely. I think the point is, in the context of comparing various players, OBP + steals tells more of the story about a players' value. (which, as an example, helps Ryan Braun close the gap with Joey Votto in terms of: his OBP isn't as great, but he's a much better baserunner)

 

it is just a matter of context.