Adam Dunn's Hall of Fame chances?

[HiAndTight]

The question was raised with Paul Konerko the other day, a player I think has truly been one of the most underrated players in the game over the last decade...but just not quite a HOF caliber talent or HOF caliber #'s.

 

But it got me thinking about his teammate, Adam Dunn.

 

 

Now before everyone scoffs, let me make my argument.

-He's 32 years old

-He's at 382 HR's right now without any stink of steroids.

-He's playing in the AL so he's pretty much a DH from here on out. So those absolutely....GOD awful defensive days are over and done with now.

-From the years 2004-2010, ages 24-30, 7 seasons, he AVERAGED 38 HR's a season and a line of .253/.381/.533 OPS pf .914.

-He's coming off a year from hell last year, but has bounced back this year and is back hitting 17 HR's and is putting up a .929 OPS.

 

Sp now that he's at age 32, doesn't have to worry about playing in LF where I ltierally think I could have done as good of a job(not a reflection on me, but rather on Dunn's inability).

 

If he averages 30 HR's over the next 5years, he'll be at 532...which frankly with his size and strength and playing DH in the AL is well on the low side.

 

His BA kills him, but the guy has always walked just about as well as anyone in the league. He's on pace this year for 52 million this year.

 

So after this year, he should easily be at 400 HR's going into his age 33 season.

 

So with modest projections, ie, 30 HR's a year until he's 37 he's at 538 and again, I think he could very easily end up 600.

There are two questions,

 

A-Do you believe the Writers are going to elect him based on his total # of HR's IF he hits well into the 500's

B-Do YOU believe he SHOULD be a HOF'er.

 

I make the distinction because I think those on here place a higher value on defense than most voters do. 500 used to be the magic number to make the HOF. Now since the steroid era, there are some who will have hit 500 who won't make it. But those are suspected users.

 

The Big Donkey has never been accused of, or rumored to have used PED's. He's been the big old horse since he came into the league.

 

 

So I guess the question is, will the voters look at his power and On-base skills and get him into the HOF despite atrocious defense and a low BA, or will the counting #'2 be the difference?

 

 

 

Edit-Clarified the questions regarding the writers and each posters opinion.

Ie, do you think he SHOULD get in, and do you think he WILL get in, ie, Bert Blyleven SHOULD be in IMO vs Andrew Dawson who IMO should NOT be in.

[chickinbrickin]

He has zero chance.

[dlk9s]

A-Is he GOING to make the HOF;

B-Do YOU think he's going to be a HOF'er.

 

Those look like the same questions to me.

[jerichoholicninja]

That he's basically a DH that's been forced to play defense in the NL and his low batting average and high strikeout totals will keep the voters for voting for him. He's a borderline Hall of Famer for me personally.

[HiAndTight]

A-Is he GOING to make the HOF;

B-Do YOU think he's going to be a HOF'er.

 

Those look like the same questions to me.

 

 

I apologize, very-very poor wording. I'll correct that.

 

 

A-Do you believe the WRITERS will elect him to the HOF

B-Do you believe that he SHOULD be a HOF'er.

 

 

Thanks for pointing that out. That's very difficult to read.

[HiAndTight]

He has zero chance.

 

 

Well, with all due respect, I believe that's ridiculous.

 

Adam Dunn would have to struggle to be at 400 HR's by the end of this year and should EASILY be at about 410 HR's. He's 32 years old.

 

Lets say he plays another 8 years and averages 25 Hr's a year(very low, but for the sake of argument). That would put him at about 610 HR's.

 

And you're going to tell me that when not a single player who has hit 500 HR's without the stink of roids on him or has admitted to using them HASN'T made the HOF, this player who could EASILY surpass 600 HR's has "zero chance?"

 

Sorry, this is a pet peeve for me. To me, he doesn't FEEL like a HOF'er, but to just blandly throw out there that he has ZERO chance of being a HOF'er...which...given the career he's had to this point at 32 years of age is ridiculous.

[HiAndTight]

That he's basically a DH that's been forced to play defense in the NL and his low batting average and high strikeout totals will keep the voters for voting for him. He's a borderline Hall of Famer for me personally.

 

 

Harmon Killebrew had a career line of .256/.376/.509 and OPS of .884

Adam Dunn right now is at .243/.374/.504 OPS of .878

 

Killebrew ended up with 573 HR's.

If Dunn averages JUST 27 HR's over the next 7 years, he'll end up with 573 HR's.

 

Again though, I think he has the chance to hit 40 HR's playing in Chicago for the next 3-4 years. 120+382=502 at age 35 or 544 at age 36.

 

 

 

This is why I think it's such an interesting discussion. He's a guy who I think will end up hitting 600 and unless something changes, he will never have been linked to PED's in anyway.

 

But he's also a guy you NEVER looked at and said, "yeah, he's one of the best 10 players in the game," these years, or even this YEAR. Never finshed higher than 21st in MVP voting and has been a ONE All-Star game.

 

And yet....can you keep a guy who's clean and hit 600 Hr's out?

[brettac1]

I don't think he's going to get 600 HR. He might not even get to 500. He has the standard "old player skills", and that doesn't age well (it already hasn't for him when you look at how his ability to hit LHP has gone off a cliff).

 

One of my all-time favorite players, though, and probably my favorite active player and that includes Brewers.

[rluzinski]

I don't think he's going to get 600 HR. He might not even get to 500. He has the standard "old player skills", and that doesn't age well (it already hasn't for him when you look at how his ability to hit LHP has gone off a cliff).

 

What do you mean exactly? Old player batting skills are typically walks and power; skills that have kept old guys in the league for a long time. It's the young players who rely on speed that have to develop "old player skills' to stick around into their mid to late 30's. Dunn had them when he was a rookie.

 

Sure, Dunn's production is going to fall off and he'll be a DH platoon guy soon but I see him in the league for another 5 years after this. You have to think he has well over a 50% chance of hitting at least 500 HRs.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think he's going to get 600 HR. He might not even get to 500. He has the standard "old player skills", and that doesn't age well (it already hasn't for him when you look at how his ability to hit LHP has gone off a cliff).

 

One of my all-time favorite players, though, and probably my favorite active player and that includes Brewers.

 

 

He's already at 17 HR's this year alone, and if he ends up with 18 more this year in 4 months, you're looking at him averaging only until he's 37. Even as a platoon player facing just righties, I think he gets that easily with his pure power.

 

And if he DOES continue to hit 35-40 the next 4 years, he's a couple of DH seasons away from cruising into 40 pretty easily.

 

 

Interesting discussion though.

 

He DEFINITELY doesn't "feel," like a HOF'er to me, but if 500 is suppose to be the magic number, he could EASILY surpass, but I DO agree, he just does NOT "feel," like a HOF'er.

[TooLiveBrew]

Dunn getting compared to Killebrew is a classic example of why context & era are important when evaluating HOF cases. In Killebrew's two best seasons in terms of OPS, the AL aggregate OPS was... 1961: .724, 1969: .690. Dunn's best OPS years so far in his career have been 2004 (.756 NL aggregate OPS) & 2007 (.757). What Killebrew was doing at the time he played was far more rare & therefore far more valuable. Dunn's the definition of a Hall of Very Good candidate imo.

[3and2Fastball]

I think has a chance to make the HOF if

 

1) He makes it to 600 HR's .... Or

 

2) If he contributes mightily in a World Series (such as getting a WS MVP Award or a WS walk-off etc) Or

 

3) He wins a few MVP's

 

If he finishes with 550+ and a WS MVP or 2, yeah that would work too

 

The 600 HR's is the most likely scenario, which he could achieve if he stays healthy and keeps on pace like he has been

 

The MVP is a long-shot, but I suppose if he hits 60 HR's in a season he could get one (he's on pace for 51 this year)

[splitterpfj]

Dunn has one chance, and that's a big pile of home runs.

 

The answer is the same as Konerko's...500 HR, or no chance at all.

[3and2Fastball]

The answer is the same as Konerko's...500 HR, or no chance at all.

 

I really don't think 500 is going to be "magic mark" anymore. I think that is going to be moved to 600

 

When Jim Thome hit 500, I don't think he was thought of as an inevitable HOF'er. But now that he has 600 I think the majority thinking is "oh he'll definitely get in"....

[gregmag]

This is a fun discussion, and I really like the way you framed it: how do we reconcile the classic benchmark (500 HRs) with our sense that the guy was never quite dominant. I'm old enough to remember this same basic argument about Dave Kingman. At that time, I think 400 HRs had been pretty much automatic. Kingman, as an all-around player, was pretty bad, and he got to 442, but sane heads prevailed.

 

I think the HR benchmark has changed. The biggest reason is still the DH, but steroids are in the picture as well, and there may also just be a movement toward more specialized roles. This is just off the top of my head, but I'm not sure we saw that many "power only" guys before Kingman -- hitters whose value was fully concentrated in their ability to hit HRs. I feel like those guys have become more common. I don't mean to denigrate Dunn by comparing him to Kingman, by the way; the difference is that Dunn walks, and that's a huge difference.

 

I think TooLiveBrew is exactly right about why the Killebrew comp doesn't work. This is what OPS+ is for. Killebrew had a career OPS+ of 143, which includes his decline years. Dunn is at 128. They really aren't close. We should take every opportunity to remember how badly great hitters got screwed in the late 60s. Killebrew's 1967 and 1969 seasons, in context, are superhuman.

 

Russ, I think the argument about players with "old skills" aging badly is that, if you don't have anything else, and those skills atrophy, you can fall off a cliff in a hurry. I recall seeing studies about "speed" vs. "power" players, indicating that players with more of their value tied up in speed aged better than comparably valuable players with more of their value tied up in power. I always assumed the real issue was breadth of skill sets. Anyway, that's the argument, as I recall it.

 

As for Dunn, I think he'll have a case if he gets to 550. But he still might have to win a championship to seal the deal. If he gets to 600, I don't see how you can leave him out.

[3and2Fastball]

I struggle a little with OPS+ and comparing various eras. I have no reason to believe that Dunn wouldn't be the exact same hitter in Killebrew's time. No better no worse. And I don't believe that Killebrew would be any better or worse playing in today's era either. Just because there were less sluggers in Killebrew's time, or the average OPS was lower or whatever, shouldn't hurt Dunn when comparing him to Killebrew

[3and2Fastball]

I was going to add: if you were going to say that Ted Williams or Ty Cobb would be even better in today's time then they were in their eras, because they were obsessive-compulsive about hitting and would have made full use of today's technology and advance scouting reports and would be "Captain Videos" like Tony Gwynn and been able to study pitchers even more, I'd buy that (although we would have to discuss the fact that Cobb & Williams played all or part of their careers in easier leagues that weren't integrated, so we'd have to adjust for that... but I digress)

 

However, Adam Dunn & Harmon Killebrew are very similar hitters (Killebrew was a vastly better fielder). You put Adam Dunn in a Time Machine and take him to any era and he's going to turn on fastballs and hit 40 bombs a year, in any time. And he'd walk a lot and strike out a ton and hit about .240

[TooLiveBrew]

but that's the whole point -- the reason Miguel Cabrera is an elite hitter is that there aren't many like him. Dunn's been a tremendous HR & BB guy, but that's not nearly as uncommon in more recent years.

 

I didn't extrapolate any further on my post responding to the Killebrew/Dunn comp., because frankly I didn't think it'd be needed. While OPS+ isn't by any means a 100% determining comparative stat, it's useful in a quick & dirty sense. Check out where Killebrew stacked up in the two seasons gregmag cited ('67 & '69). He was routinely one of the 5-10 best hitters in his league, and maybe MLB -- he won 1 MVP & finished top-5 five other times. Dunn has certainly been a good power hitter, but he doesn't stand out amongst his peers in the same way that Killebrew did/does. How much a player stands out in the era(s) in which he played is, for me, a major determinant in HOF-i-ness.

 

40 HRs seems like a reasonable estimate for Dunn in a given season, so even though he might hit more than 40 this season, that's no given. Assuming 40 HR/season, Dunn wouldn't get to 500 until his age-35 season (2015). Even if he's able to stay healthy & productive enough to get to 500 by then, you're still looking at 100 more HRs to hit from age-36 & beyond. Dunn isn't exactly a picture of physical conditioning, so I think it's an incredibly long shot he'll reach 600. He is what he is, a player I feel has been undervalued by many over his career -- and certainly an impressively consistent producer. But he's not the kind of player that jumps off the page to me as a HOF candidate.

[Baldkin]

There have been numerous changes, most notably mound height and ballpark size that have increased the run environment in baseball since the 60's. Dunn wouldn't have hit nearly as many HRs in the 60's because a lot of the stadiums were cavernous.

[brettac1]

Russ, I think the argument about players with "old skills" aging badly is that, if you don't have anything else, and those skills atrophy, you can fall off a cliff in a hurry. I recall seeing studies about "speed" vs. "power" players, indicating that players with more of their value tied up in speed aged better than comparably valuable players with more of their value tied up in power. I always assumed the real issue was breadth of skill sets. Anyway, that's the argument, as I recall it.

Yes, the breadth of skillset is the issue. The real "old player skills" also includes low batting average. Dunn used to be able to run a little, but now he's very slow, and all it takes is a little drop in bat speed for players like this to fall fast, since they will see more fastballs since they aren't able to hit them as consistently, or as well. His contact rate is already slipping, too. Guys that rely on one or two things to get by become useless fast. Like Rob Deer or Richie Sexson did, for a couple examples. Dunn is a better hitter than those guys, but they are just examples.

[HiAndTight]

Dunn getting compared to Killebrew is a classic example of why context & era are important when evaluating HOF cases. In Killebrew's two best seasons in terms of OPS, the AL aggregate OPS was... 1961: .724, 1969: .690. Dunn's best OPS years so far in his career have been 2004 (.756 NL aggregate OPS) & 2007 (.757). What Killebrew was doing at the time he played was far more rare & therefore far more valuable. Dunn's the definition of a Hall of Very Good candidate imo.

 

 

 

Of course, and I would certainly agree. But wouldn't you agree prior to Big Mac, Bonds, Raffy and Sosa, all pretty much believed to have used PED's by the majority of people, that 500 HR's was a guarantee you'd get in?

 

And I think you're answering half the question. YOUR opinion on it. I'm talking about the writers. You know a lot of them aren't comparing year to year..they're just looking at the 500-550 or even more HR's(assuming a decline, but not a HUGE one over the next 7 years).

 

 

It's a tough question to answer though before you know where he ends up obviously. He could just as easily have an extremely steep decline.

 

 

Anyway, he may very well be one of the first litmus tests for if 500 is still automatic entry into the HOF.

[HiAndTight]

I think has a chance to make the HOF if

 

1) He makes it to 600 HR's .... Or

 

2) If he contributes mightily in a World Series (such as getting a WS MVP Award or a WS walk-off etc) Or

 

3) He wins a few MVP's

 

If he finishes with 550+ and a WS MVP or 2, yeah that would work too

 

The 600 HR's is the most likely scenario, which he could achieve if he stays healthy and keeps on pace like he has been

 

The MVP is a long-shot, but I suppose if he hits 60 HR's in a season he could get one (he's on pace for 51 this year)

 

 

Meh, it pretty unlikely other than the HR's.

 

He's only finished in the top 25 of MVP voting three times and never in the top 20.

I don't see the White Sox as being a WS team in the near future.

 

But you could certainly see him on a Yankees team as a platoon DH even into his 40's as he's just got that type of power that he SHOULD remain a HR threat late in his career.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think he's going to get 600 HR. He might not even get to 500. He has the standard "old player skills", and that doesn't age well (it already hasn't for him when you look at how his ability to hit LHP has gone off a cliff).

 

What do you mean exactly? Old player batting skills are typically walks and power; skills that have kept old guys in the league for a long time. It's the young players who rely on speed that have to develop "old player skills' to stick around into their mid to late 30's. Dunn had them when he was a rookie.

 

Sure, Dunn's production is going to fall off and he'll be a DH platoon guy soon but I see him in the league for another 5 years after this. You have to think he has well over a 50% chance of hitting at least 500 HRs.

 

 

My thoughts exactly. I could take it a step further and say that I think he can play for even longer. 5 years would put him at 37. I could see him being similar to a Jim Thome type player. Bouncing around to teams who are good, but need to fill the DH role. Possibly a team like Houston where I believe he's from Houston. So for a guy like the Big Donkey....a guy who I could see at age 38, 39, 40..etc...being a .225-.240 hitter with a .340 OBP and still hitting 25+ HR's.

 

 

 

So I agree, he's EXACTLY the type of guy who I think will age "well," for the post-steroid era. I really think he has a chance to hit 600 HR's. Which is why he's so interesting to me.

 

He's been SO awful defensively that his move valuable years may be yet to come(in terms of WAR).

[RockCoCougars]

It's pretty likely that Dunn's career batting average will stay around the .240 mark. I'd say that there's no way will the voters put someone in with an average that low.

[HiAndTight]

I struggle a little with OPS+ and comparing various eras. I have no reason to believe that Dunn wouldn't be the exact same hitter in Killebrew's time. No better no worse. And I don't believe that Killebrew would be any better or worse playing in today's era either. Just because there were less sluggers in Killebrew's time, or the average OPS was lower or whatever, shouldn't hurt Dunn when comparing him to Killebrew

 

 

I actually completely agree that when you dig a little deeper the Killebrew vs Dunn argument kinda falls apart.

 

Which, AGAIN, was the reason I asked the questions in two parts. Because I don't think MOST baseball writers look at some of the most advanced metrics like OPS+ to evaluate a player. I think there are still plenty who use counting stats, and there is no bigger "counting stat," than HR's.

 

When Killebrew played, he played in almost a dead ball era and in much smaller ball parks. I do wonder what he'd have done had he played in Cincy for so many years.

 

At the same time I remember Dunn putting one up in the friggin Dew deck vs the Brewers. The Polo grounds to dead center wouldn't have held that one IMO(regardless of what the official distance was).

 

 

 

But there is a reason why Don Sutton is in the HOF with an ERA+ of 108 and Bert Blyleven had to wait an additional 10+years than Sutton.

 

Or why Tim Raines isn't in the HOF despite being probably the 2nd best leadoff hitter of the last 60-70 years behind Ricky. But he came up short of those 3,000 hits. I'm sure he could have easily gotten those 3,000 hits had he not walked at a 15 pct clip at times in his career, but with 800+ stolen bases and with a nearly 85 pct success rate.

 

So we're talking about what makes sense based on the writers and what makes sense based on YOUR opinion, realize the two will likely diverge.

 

That's not to say there aren't writers who's opinions are coming along, but you still see BA overvalued, OBP undervalued, wins overvalued, etc..etc..

 

 

 

One last thing on this real quickly.

 

Someone mentioned Jim Thome being a lock since he got to 600. Now Thome was a significantly better offensive player, HOWEVER, he finished his age 32 season with 381 HR's.

 

Dunn is on pace to finish HIS age 32 season with 415 HR's based on his current pace, and should at least crack 400 by the end of this season.