Jorge Soler?

[narwhalattack]

Jorge Soler has recently become an MLB free agent and should sign before July 2nd (so there isn't an international budget constraint). Should the Brewers go after him?

[HiAndTight]

Absolutely. I've read scouting reports that he projects to be a .275/.280 hitter(though that's in question with the competition he's faced and it's hard to judge) and could be much higher, but has big time power, is 19 and already 6'3 200 pounds with a very strong arm and is a prototypical RF'er.

 

We're lacking bats. But rumor is the Cubs have a deal in place with him for around 25 million over 5 years.

 

The problem is, unless I'm mistaken, you'd be counting on a 19 year old kid to be major league ready. And we couldn't have control of him like we would a draft pick. So you'd likely be paying 5 million a year for a guy who may not be ready just yet and by the time he is truly developed, those 5 years would be just about up.

 

I don't know how solid the 5/25 is however, but 7/25 or so I would say go for it...

 

And that's just because we desperately need impact bats. Still, a lot of money to add without the ability to develop him..if he needs it, in the minors. Unless I am mistaken about that, and we could keep him down there for a couple years without those years counting against the years in the contract. If that makes sense.

 

 

Of course on the other hand, spreading that 25 million(or whatever it is) out to 10-15 16 year old Latin American prospects would probably go a lot further....

[narwhalattack]

Soler is expected to sign for a 4 year deal before tomorrow. Bet it's not the Brewers.

[cvollbrecht]

Cubs got Soler according to NY Post

[cvollbrecht]

Heyman reports it's for 9 years at around 30M

[HiAndTight]

Heyman reports it's for 9 years at around 30M

 

 

God I hate Hoyer and Theo...and I suspect in 3-4 years everyone else here will as well.

 

Brilliant move for the Cubs...lets him develop for 2-3 years without feeling the pressure to rush him up, and if he's a good player, 30 million through the first 6 years is hardly outrageous.

 

They don't spend foolishly(ignoring Lackey and maybe one or two other signings). Seems like a huge upside contract and with almost downside.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yep, that regime on the Northside is going to return the Cubs to being playoff contenders before long.

[RockCoCougars]

Just like Andy McPhail did in the mid 90's. He was the last 'young genius' that they brought in fresh off two W.S. rings.

[TooLiveBrew]

RockCo, I don't get your seemingly unwarranted loathing of any GM who develops the reputation of being good.

[RockCoCougars]

RockCo, I don't get your seemingly unwarranted loathing of any GM who develops the reputation of being good.

 

As with many things in life, Epstein was in the right place at the right time. You or I could have won rings in that situation. He's treated as some sort of baseball guru by people with selective memories. He didn't leave the Red Sox on very good footing, that's for sure- and he's responsible for two of the worst free agent signings in recent memory.

 

I don't loathe all successful GM's, just those who I feel have more street cred then they deserve. Terry Ryan is an example of one GM that I truly respect.

[TheCrew07]

Isn't being a good GM taking advantage of opportunities that present themselves? Theo did very nice job early in his tenure but like many people became too attached to aging veterans and it cost him in the end. Was it all his doing or was ownership dictating some of those decisions? As much as I bag on Melvin I honestly believe that Mark A. is also a driving force behind some of these bad moves. I started to wonder what was going on in Boston when they had Buchholz on the block for 2 straight years at the trade deadline, that's as silly as the Giants trying to move Cain for a big bat all those years ago. Did they not trust him? Why move a young pitcher with that kind of stuff?

 

I brought up Jon Daniels name a couple of years ago as young guy who I thought was in the top tier baseball GMs and was blasted pretty hard for it on the forum here but I think the ultimate result doesn't require much analysis. He made some bad trades early, but he's been nothing short of brilliant lately, they have an incredibly talented MLB team and a loaded farm system, it's an extremely enviable position to be in from where I'm sitting, and it didn't happen by accident. He learned from his mistakes and kept moving forward, which is probably my biggest issue with Melvin's tenure as GM, it's been the same strategy repeating year after year.

 

The Cubs are definitely a threat, they have a pretty decent GM who should learn from his mistakes and they have 1 of the top scouting directors in baseball if not the best scouting director in baseball, Tim Wilken. He's the guy who drafted Halladay and Carpenter in Toronto, moved on to Tampa and helped Andrew Friedman build one of the best farm systems in baseball, he's very good at what he does. The Cubs revamped their FO a bit so Wilken actually works under Jason McLeod who oversees all of scouting and player development, but McLeod is a pretty good talent evaluator himself.

 

The central is pretty wide open now but I don't think it's a good idea to dismiss what's been going on in Pittsburgh and Chicago, the Pirates could easily have the best young pitching staff in the division within 2 years and Chicago has some legitimate hitting talent in Rizzo, Jackson, Baez (yes I know he's in A ball), and now Soler plus they will have the money to fill rotation holes with impact pitching from the FA market. What if the Cubs were to sign Greinke away from us this off season? 1 or 2 top of the rotation guys and suddenly they are a pretty formidable team again.

 

I worry about everyone, there isn't a bad farm system in the division and there are plenty of solid front office people doing good things. They all certainly make mistakes, but no worse than Melvin, and some are much more flexible in their philosophies than he is. Outside of completely obvious trades like Sabathia and Greinke, what has Melvin done which has been so brilliant? Who can't identify CY talent after they've already won a CY? His record in FA is an overall negative and he decimated the farm system to get to where he did with players he couldn't retain longer than 2 years. Nor is he progressive in any way, he's behind the market trends playing follow the leader. He's just extremely average... he's certainly not horrible which makes him better than what he had, but he's certainly not special either.

 

If you want to talk about being "gifted" a team, Melvin was provided with 2 HOF quality talents and 3 more all-stars for position players and has made the playoffs twice, and 2008 was pretty much an accident. He knew from the time he got here that the organization didn't have enough impact pitching and what did he really do to address the situation? Let's be objective here, why are so many so quick to point out flaws in others but unwilling to see those same flaws in our guys? When the market swung away from pitching Tampa exploited it to build their 2008 rotation through 3 trades, now that the market has swung towards pitching there's opportunity to grab hitters for pretty decent value like the Cubs did when they landed Rizzo. It's about knowing your talent and if Cashner can't stay healthy enough to be a starter that will be a fantastic trade for the Cubs. Cashner was just sent down to get stretched out to start again so we'll see but he has health concerns regardless of his role.

 

There is a hell of a lot more value in signing players like Sole and Chapman for $30 million for 6+ years than there was signing Wolf at that same money for 3. Regardless of what I think of relievers' overall value, the market is set for the back of the bullpen types, so even if Chapman is nothing more than a closer he'll easily be worth more than his initial contract. The idea should be to buy wins below the market rate as often as possible, that's just good business, so before we run around bashing other GMs lets consider Melvin's record from that same perspective.

[HiAndTight]

Just like Andy McPhail did in the mid 90's. He was the last 'young genius' that they brought in fresh off two W.S. rings.

 

 

How is one related to the other?

 

Because one failed, that inherently means another regime is going to fail?

 

I think most of us would agree that Jed Hoyer is a pretty damn good GM, Theo has proven he knows how to build the right way, and someone can help me as his name escapes me, but their scouting director has a great history as well.

 

But forget all that. Forget what they've done prior to coming to Chicago. Look at what they're DOING in Chicago? If Henry was still there, he'd probably have looked to spend to improve the team in the off-season.

 

Theo and Jed are building totally from within. They're taking their lumps, should end up with 2 maybe 3 top 5-10 picks if not higher along with the international market which they're aggressive in(hence the thread) and they've been extremely economically savvy.

 

The Rizzo trade was a GREAT trade for them, but I suspect the Dempster and even moreso Garza are going to bring back one helluva haul to an already vastly improved farm system. Soto, Marmol should/could bring back strong lower level prospects simply for their upsides.

 

And if-IF they do go ahead and trade Castro with FOUR YEARS left, I suspect that'll bring back a bigger haul than any trade made in the past 10 years(with regard to the opinions of the prospects received at the time. Imagine a team like LA, Boston, St Louis(Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez though unlikely within the division and the rivalry) Kansas City, Cleveland...hell, even Tampa Bay who cold certainly use him for the next 4 years and have the arms to make such a deal.

 

The Rays IMO have FIVE PITCHERS who would be at worst our #3, and possibly a few more such as Wade Davis, McGee and then they're pretty loaded in AAA with Archer who throws in the mid 90's with great stuff, Alex Torres another flame thrower with huge upside as their #6 prospect, Alex Colome with a plus hammer and another guy in the mid 90's, all of whom are big league ready, or near big league ready, and THEN there is Taylor Guerrieri an elite arm touching 98 with a possible 70 curve, 60 change and slider and 60 command, PLUS they have an elite SS prospect who like Archer was traded for Garza in Hak-Ju Lee.

 

I could see a team like the Rays who of all the pitchers I mentioned, StartersMatt Moore the 22 year old rookie phenom with the FB that can touch 100, Hellickson(25) last years rookie of the year who's pitching just as well this year, Cy Young runner up David Price(26), then the "old guys," Jeff Nieman and Shields to go with 3-4 very good pitching prospects deciding that after getting something like 12 of the first 38 draft picks, and a LOADED farm system and a loaded young staff with 4 legit 1/2's under the age of 26 to go after a guy like Castro by offering up Ju-Lee, Colome, Taylor Guerrieri and another lower level guy, OR a guy like Wade Davis who's wasting away in the bullpen IMO.

 

 

 

Anyway, veered way off topic there, just got to thinking about even how Castro was available, thought of a team that he'd possibly push over the edge and then the most logical given he's still got 4 years left after this one?

 

I believe with Rizzo, any haul they may get for Dempster, Garza, Casto, Marmol or soto they'll have an ELITE system in short order.

 

Imagine if they could throw Castro into that lineup at SS by the way.

Desmond Jennings CF/RF

Castro SS

Longo 3B

Zobrist 2B

Joyce RF

Upton CF

Pena 1B

Scott DH

Molina C

 

I might bump them over the Rangers as WS favorites if they made a move like that.

 

 

 

Anyway, way off topic. The point is, they're building the right way.

[nate82]

Sigh another good player gone that is really affordable. I wish the Brewers would take some chances on guys like this. Someone like Soler would look real nice and even someone like Yoenis Cespedes would have been a good contract for the Brewers. It seems as though the Cuban and other Latin America players have come down a lot in price while the big stars in Japan are still very high. The Brewers should really be taking advantage of this opportunity as these players are coming in at slightly lower prices than in the past. Cespedes would look rather good in RF for the Brewers right now. The recent contracts even Chapman's contract have been rather team friendly and under what you would have to pay for someone on the current FA market given the same skill set.

[Invader3K]

Well, Melvin did sign that Aoki guy to a pretty reasonable deal...

[endaround]

How is this affordable? Sole gets $30m if he sucks and can opt out to arby if he's good.

[monty57]

I believe with Rizzo, any haul they may get for Dempster, Garza, Casto, Marmol or soto they'll have an ELITE system in short order.

 

I worry about everyone, there isn't a bad farm system in the division and there are plenty of solid front office people doing good things.

 

Yeah, the Cubs are looking to have a pretty good system in the not-too-distant future, the Pirates took advantage of paying over slot value while the rule existed and they've got a lot of young talent in the system (including the MLB level), the Reds have locked up some stars and have a lot of talent in the system and the Cardinals are old but have some really good prospects coming up. That leaves the Brewers with a below average farm system, very little young, cheap talent on the MLB roster and a lot of money tied up in a few players for the next few seasons. Melvin's got his work cut out for him.

[RockCoCougars]

I think most of us would agree that Jed Hoyer is a pretty damn good GM

 

What are his accomplishments as a GM? San Diego looks to be in horrible shape. They have been trading places with (you guessed it) the Cubs for worst record in baseball. A quick glance reveals that the biggest move that he made with San Diego was giving Gonzalez to the Red Sox... that is unless you believe (as Theo and Jed obviously do) that Anthony Rizzo is the second coming of Albert Pujols or something. We shall see. All that I know is that the three teams these guys have been primarily associated with are all currently in last place. I'll give them the rebuilding excuse for a few years, but I don't fear them in the least based on their past track record.

[TooLiveBrew]

"Giving" Gonzalez to the Red Sox... you do realize that was a trade he made with just one year of team salary control on Gonzo, right? That deal was nothing short of great for SD.

 

Honestly, it's not that you have your doubts about certain GMs, it's the arrogance with which you dismiss them that irks me. "Rebuilding excuse" -- it's not an excuse, it's really what they're doing with the Cubs.

[monty57]

but I don't fear them in the least based on their past track record.

 

How about "based on their past track record plus the fact that they could have a $150MM+ payroll when the time comes to start spending, with little of that money committed to long-term deals?"

 

Maybe they'll act foolishly, but they seem to be starting out the right way, and so far the Chicago fans seem to be accepting of it. They have a grace period to allow Theo to implement his strategy, so we'll see if it works.

[RockCoCougars]

"Giving" Gonzalez to the Red Sox... you do realize that was a trade he made with just one year of team salary control on Gonzo, right? That deal was nothing short of great for SD.

 

Honestly, it's not that you have your doubts about certain GMs, it's the arrogance with which you dismiss them that irks me. "Rebuilding excuse" -- it's not an excuse, it's really what they're doing with the Cubs.

 

I think that arrogance is a bit warranted to counter reading post after post talking about how we should 'fear the Cubs' in a period of time solely because of two front office personnel. No GM is going to build a team into a powerhouse without a ton of luck. Over the years there have been a lot of hotshot GM's who've made a name for themselves, but most do not do nearly as well at their second job. The only one that I can think of that eclipsed his success was Schuerholtz in Atlanta. Pat Gillick put some good seasons together after Toronto, but no rings. Other boy wonders like Dombrowski and Alderson have mixed results but no rings since leaving the jobs where they built their cred. How did John Hart do in Texas? Randy Smith in Detroit? These guys were the Theos of the nineties.

 

As I said, I can only go by what I can see now. What did Hoyer do to make San Diego better, or even position them better for the future? Everybody talks about the horrible contracts that Theo inherited with the Cubs, but there are a few probably worse that he left in Boston. I have no idea why his lackeys (pun intended) absolve him from those contracts and the problems that he left behind in Boston. Like I said, all three teams are in last place. If these guys are so good, what gives? I'll stand by my assertion that they are media darlings mostly because 'they' broke the Curse of the Bambino, and interviews with them and Bill James are good fodder for shows like '60 Minutes'.

[monty57]

Well, we may be "fearing them" in our fight for last place, but I'm mostly looking at how teams will fare relative to the Brewers. Theo has brought in some good young players and has realized that he's not winning the division this year, so he's put his players "up for sale" early in hopes of maximizing the return. By trading their "chips" this year, he will add more talent to the system. Some of this talent will live up to their potential, and since most of his team will be cheap, he will have a lot of money (like $100MM) in reserve to upgrade his needs.

 

Meanwhile the Brewers are talking like they're not going to sell, which will leave them with over $50MM tied up in seven players, a handful of guys in arby, and little pre-arby talent to fill in the holes without a lot of money to spend. We're potentially heading downwards quickly while the rest of the division (with the possible exception of the Cards who are old but do have multiple top prospects) are heading upwards. We're not that far ahead of the Cubs right now, so it won't take much more downward movement by us or upward movement by them to put us in last place over the next few years.

[RockCoCougars]

so he's put his players "up for sale" early in hopes of maximizing the return

 

How did he maximize his return for Zambrano? Trading a very serviceable pitcher along with $15 million for a guy with a rag arm doesn't seem like max return to me. We don't hear much about that deal now, do we. I guarantee that we would have if Zambrano had become Crazy Z, melted down in Spring Training and/or if Chris Volstad would have somehow not pitched like Chris Volstad, guys would have been putting down their Baseball Prospectuses and spray painting 'Theo is God' in alleys outside of Barnes and Nobles everywhere.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't get it man, it's not like the guys kicked your dog or anything. Why do you care if some people view them as being good at their job? I mean no one's going around insulting your pov. You just don't seem to approach this very objectively -- if you view the Gonzalez trade to BOS as buddies "giving" a player away, then I don't think you're being fair at all.

 

It's funny to me that you go on to list a who's who of some of the best GMs in the game, and dismiss them all. Ruben Amaro, Jr. himself said that Gillick was nearly 100% responsible for the Phillies' WS teams. So from all this, I take it that you have some snarky puns & putdowns for that overrated hack Doug Melvin? I mean he won Baseball America's MLB Executive of the Year last season, & he hasn't done squat in his second job... "mixed results but no rings" would be your phrase, I believe.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't get it man, it's not like the guys kicked your dog or anything. Why do you care if some people view them as being good at their job? I mean no one's going around insulting your pov. You just don't seem to approach this very objectively -- if you view the Gonzalez trade to BOS as buddies "giving" a player away, then I don't think you're being fair at all.

 

It's funny to me that you go on to list a who's who of some of the best GMs in the game, and dismiss them all. Ruben Amaro, Jr. himself said that Gillick was nearly 100% responsible for the Phillies' WS teams. So from all this, I take it that you have some snarky puns & putdowns for that overrated hack Doug Melvin? I mean he won Baseball America's MLB Executive of the Year last season, & he hasn't done squat in his second job... "mixed results but no rings" would be your phrase, I believe.

 

Gillick did a ton more for the Jays then Epstein did for the Red Sox. If Gillick was 100% responsible for the Phillies success, the same could be said about Dan Duquette in Boston. Melvin is an OK GM, but doesn't get a fraction of the ink that Epstein gets... same with most of the other GM's of currently successful teams....For example, why is Freidman with Tampa not as 'cool' as Beane or Epstein? You certainly don't hear about him as much.

 

I'll even admit that it may be somewhat unhealthy, but the manlove for Epstein and Beane irks me to no end. Seriously, what is the difference between Esptein and Brian Cashman? Outside of the fact that one is younger, hired Bill James and has an Ivy League pedigree, I see none. I think that you could make the argument that Cashman actually has a better track record.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'll even admit that it may be somewhat unhealthy, but the manlove for Epstein and Beane irks me to no end. Seriously, what is the difference between Esptein and Brian Cashman? Outside of the fact that one is younger, hired Bill James and has an Ivy League pedigree, I see none. I think that you could make the argument that Cashman actually has a better track record.

 

I actually think Cashman is a very good GM who also happens to have seemingly unlimited money available to him. But yes, I'd agree your loathing for Epstein, Beane, et al is somewhat unhealthy.

 

 

For example, why is Freidman with Tampa not as 'cool' as Beane or Epstein? You certainly don't hear about him as much.

 

I guess I'd tell you to start reading different types of baseball publications then. There's plenty of respect for Freidman/Tampa amongst the prospect-tracking stuff. Jon Daniels is another. I guess you could probably just get by with reading TheCrew07's posts, though, too...