June is a HUGE month for the Brewers' season, at a perfect time...

[rluzinski]

Thanks. The Brewers seem to be on the extreme end of maddening though. They've also scored 0 or 1 less times than they've scored 4 or 5 runs.... roughly 20% of the time.

 

The Brewers' offense seems to be accused of this every year. The fans of most teams accuse their offense of being "inconsistent". It's just the nature of baseball.

 

Tangotiger.net has a program that estimates the expected runs/game distribution for a team that averages 4.36 runs/game. We can combine that with what the Brewers have done this year:

 

Runs/Game: Expected / Actual (games)

0, 6% / 8% (6)

1: 11% / 12% (9)

2: 14% / 8% (6)

3: 14% / 19% (14)

4: 13% / 7% (5)

5: 11% / 10% (7)

6: 9% / 11% (8)

7: 7% / 5% (4)

8+: 15% / 19% (14)

 

A team that averages 4.36 runs/game is expected to score 0 or 1 run 17% of the time. The Brewers have done it in about 20% of their 73 games. To have been average, they would have had to score an extra run in two games where they actually finished with 1 run. I don't see anything here to suggest that the Brewers would have necessarily had more wins had they have an average runs/game distribution.

 

Really, over 73 games, I would expect most teams to NOT have an average distribution of runs scored. I'm actually surprised the Brewers distribution is as close as it is to the average. If you think this kind of distribution is on the extreme end of maddening, you have to think that the average is extreme.

 

To me, I think that it's more that they are dependent on the home run ball to score, and it seems that they hit home runs in bunches.

 

Teams that score an above average number of runs are often relying on an above average number of HR's to do it. Hard to get around that fact. And when the average HR is worth 1.4 runs, of COURSE a team has a poor record in games when they don't hit one. Teams average about a HR/game, so they average about 1.4 runs less in games where they don't hit one. It's just a garbage stat, IMO.

 

I don't know what it is, but the Brewers have seemed to be poor fundamentally at offensive execution for a long time. It's almost ridiculous how hard that it is for them to get a lead off double over to third either by hitting the ball to the right or bunting.

]

 

Another accusation just about every team gets accused of. And what you call good fundamental baseaball is what I call an out, so I guess it's also a matter of preference.

 

The Brewers make a lot of dumb mistakes every year. We just don't remember them as well when they occur in games that our team won.

[torts]

2nd wild card team is on track to be won with 85.5 games this year.

[rluzinski]

2nd wild card team is on track to be won with 85.5 games this year.

 

Teams chasing this second wildcard has to keep it in perspective. They are really chasing for a roughly 50% chance of making the real playoffs, with all the extra revenue it represents.

[Baldkin]

So, 86 wins for the Wild Card.

 

They are 33-40 now. 89 games left.

 

To get to 86 wins, they would have to go 53-36. That's a .595 winning percentage, or a 96 win pace for a full season.

 

Yeah, not going to happen.

 

edit: I have no idea how I am bad at math.

[monty57]

2nd wild card team is on track to be won with 85.5 games this year.

 

So the Brewers would need to go 53 - 36 to get there. That's a .596 winning percentage, which is better than any team in the National League has posted so far this season (the Dodgers are at .581)

[torts]

I was just putting it out there, not saying the brewers were going to get it, just to get an idea of what it'll take to get even the final spot.

[pacopete4]

In order not to be sellers they have to beat the Reds in the final two games, go win 5 or 6 of 7 on the home stand and then take 2 of 3 from the Stros before the break. 8 or 9 of 11 gets this team where they need to be before the break. Remember how hot they got after the break last year. We weren't on some 96 game win season pace the entire year. It's impossible for more teams to do that.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

[Invader3K]

In order not to be sellers they have to beat the Reds in the final two games, go win 5 or 6 of 7 on the home stand and then take 2 of 3 from the Stros before the break. 8 or 9 of 11 gets this team where they need to be before the break. Remember how hot they got after the break last year. We weren't on some 96 game win season pace the entire year. It's impossible for more teams to do that.

 

Between the bullpen and inconsistent offense, this team isn't capable of going on a run like that.

[pacopete4]

In order not to be sellers they have to beat the Reds in the final two games, go win 5 or 6 of 7 on the home stand and then take 2 of 3 from the Stros before the break. 8 or 9 of 11 gets this team where they need to be before the break. Remember how hot they got after the break last year. We weren't on some 96 game win season pace the entire year. It's impossible for more teams to do that.

 

Between the bullpen and inconsistent offense, this team isn't capable of going on a run like that.

 

I'd like to disagree but you just can't. I wanna stay positives but it's getting harder and harder to.

 

But hey, it's baseball. Anything can happen.

[brewmann04]

I hope they have their plan to be sellers in place because they heading that way real fast.

[owbc]

I suspect the selling plan was initiated as soon as Lucroy went down. Maybe even sooner, it was already looking bleak when half the infield was done for the year.

[torts]

bet trades start happening the day after the all-star game

[MadScientist]

bet trades start happening the day after the all-star game

It depends on the trading partner. They may get a better package with an earlier sell. When DM pulled the trigger on the CC trade, he told them the offer would start going down because he'd get fewer starts from him. I could see some tema acting the same way about Greinke.

[FVBrewerFan]

Probably nothing, but figured I would share. I was at the T Rats game last night, and sat right across the aisle to Melvin, Counsell, and for a while RR. They were casually watching the game, interacting some with fans, etc. Then Melvin got a call, and turned very serious, talked to Counsell about it afterwards.

 

Who knows, could have just been a call about Helena losing 20-0, but I like to believe I witnessed a trade offer being phoned in. Better story anyhow.

[Funketown]

Probably nothing, but figured I would share. I was at the T Rats game last night, and sat right across the aisle to Melvin, Counsell, and for a while RR. They were casually watching the game, interacting some with fans, etc. Then Melvin got a call, and turned very serious, talked to Counsell about it afterwards.

 

Who knows, could have just been a call about Helena losing 20-0, but I like to believe I witnessed a trade offer being phoned in. Better story anyhow.

 

Either way it's cool that you got to see those guys; it's got to be neat for RR to have his son playing for the T-Rats.

[paul253]

Shoulda asked him what was up

[FVBrewerFan]

I didn't want to be "one of those guys." There were dudes crouching behind Counsell to get their picture taken with him. One guy wouldn't leave Melvin alone, telling him he needs to sign Greinke long-term. Just a lot of inappropriate stuff. Nice insight to the downside of fame, that's for sure.

 

It was cool for RR and his wife to be there to see their son get 3 knocks in a game, especially since he didn't even know they would be there.

 

Also, amusing to watch Melvin scarf down $1 hot dogs and coffee while Counsell sipped a bottle of water. I wonder which one is the athlete? ; )

[RockCoCougars]

One guy wouldn't leave Melvin alone, telling him he needs to sign Greinke long-term. Just a lot of inappropriate stuff.

 

Not inappropriate at all to me

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I bet Melvin hadn't thought about offering Greinke a long term deal until that guy gave his opinion.

[FVBrewerFan]

Oh, and there was also a guy sitting immediately in front of him two rows down wearing a Tigers' Fielder jersey. That couldn't be easy for him to look at all night!

[TURBO]

Counsell and RR were there last night too... Same stuff going on between innings. People asking for photos and autographs... At least they were not being hounded during the inning itself, just between innings.

 

They were sitting one section over from me, one row behind us. Roughly 30 feet from where we were sitting. After the 8th inning, the crowd was down to less than half, so my daughter and her friend went over and got autographs from both. They were very nice, smiled and gratiously signed, even asked my daughter about her Braun t-shirt...