June is a HUGE month for the Brewers' season, at a perfect time...

[torts]

With Gallardo and Greinke both going, and Arroyo pitching on the other day, I don't think that 2/3 would be a miracle- I actually expect it. The Reds are playing poorly and the Brewers have been in every game for the past two weeks right until the end.

 

ever since the 0-10 loss to the cubs, the brewers havent lost a game by more than 3 runs, with 6 of 8 by 1 run.

[Funketown]

I bet the odds on the Brewers sweeping the series with Greinke/Gallardo both going are at least 8-10%. I'd hardly call that a minor miracle, even if it is unlikely.

[RockCoCougars]

With Gallardo and Greinke both going, and Arroyo pitching on the other day, I don't think that 2/3 would be a miracle- I actually expect it. The Reds are playing poorly and the Brewers have been in every game for the past two weeks right until the end.

 

ever since the 0-10 loss to the cubs, the brewers havent lost a game by more than 3 runs, with 6 of 8 by 1 run.

 

Yeah. Without bullpen meltdowns we could be talking first place with a sweep. That said, the Reds have been having bullpen issues of late also.

 

I'm not ready to concede the division just yet. Obviously getting swept would be a disaster, but I really feel that if they can get even 4 runs a game, they should be able to win the series. I'm good with 2 of 3 and a 5.5 deficit. While the July schedule doesn't look to be quite the cakewalk on paper that June did, there are lots of home games and/or beatable teams. Time for the offense/bullpen to step it up now that the rotation has.

[TooLiveBrew]

This team is so obviously a .500 team at this point, it's not even funny. But naturally to Melvin, that's just one 15-game winning streak away from getting right back in this race!

[torts]

With Gallardo and Greinke both going, and Arroyo pitching on the other day, I don't think that 2/3 would be a miracle- I actually expect it. The Reds are playing poorly and the Brewers have been in every game for the past two weeks right until the end.

 

ever since the 0-10 loss to the cubs, the brewers havent lost a game by more than 3 runs, with 6 of 8 by 1 run.

 

Yeah. Without bullpen meltdowns we could be talking first place with a sweep. That said, the Reds have been having bullpen issues of late also.

 

I'm not ready to concede the division just yet. Obviously getting swept would be a disaster, but I really feel that if they can get even 4 runs a game, they should be able to win the series. I'm good with 2 of 3 and a 5.5 deficit. While the July schedule doesn't look to be quite the cakewalk on paper that June did, there are lots of home games and/or beatable teams. Time for the offense/bullpen to step it up now that the rotation has.

 

I feel like the brewers are just one great bullpen arm away from being able to patch things up. the rotation is fine, the roster is fine, especially when lucroy returns... that bullpen needs someone like a KRod to come in, mid season, and inject some stability. remember how terrible the bulpen was last year before Saito/Hawkins started pitching and the arrival of KRod? Loe being used every other day in the 8th inning? lets hope they can win a couple of the games before the all star break

[Baldkin]

Cannot wait until RR brings in Dillard or Loe to face Votto/Phillips/Bruce.

 

Can't WAIT!

 

What a disappointing month. The 15 game stretch vs the Pirates, Cubs, Padres, Royals, Twins.... they went 7-8.

 

5 of the 8 losses coming by 1 run.

 

This year, though, they haven't had 4 guys on the DL at the same time from the bullpen like they did last June. Guys simply aren't performing.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This team is so obviously a .500 team at this point, it's not even funny. But naturally to Melvin, that's just one 15-game winning streak away from getting right back in this race!

 

What makes it tough for Melvin is that this division is so obviously mediocre it's tough to proclaim the Brewers as a seller, even if they can't get out of their own way to contend. What stinks is that the Brewers are where they're at prior to playing the NL East.

 

Reminds me of the seasons that the Cards or Cubs were winning the division with mid-80's win totals. Somebody's gotta make the playoffs from the NL Central - I think it's trending to not having either of the two wild cards though, which is actually tough to do when the NL Central teams get to play against Cubs and Astros almost 40 times in 162 games.

[FullMetalCardigan]

Don't know if this is the right thread for this as it's only a rumor, but Bill Michaels is claiming the Brewers have a $125M offer on the table for Greinke:

 

http://www.billmichaelssports.com/brewers-lebron-sandusky/

[TooLiveBrew]

Well if you want to see what I think of the 2012 Brewers, look no further than the 2011 Reds. The talent really is there, but the results just aren't. This is a season in which (imo) a GM needs to recognize the stars haven't aligned, and that it's a perfect time to be selling some of the most valuable arms in the game. Not to buy two bullpen arms and a SS in the hopes that a .525-talent team (or thereabouts) can win 2 of every 3 games the rest of the way.

[rluzinski]

10-11 so far this June with 3 road games against the 1st place Reds. If the Brewers had taken care of business earlier this month, they'd really be in the mix. Unfortunately the dreadful series in KC and continued inconsistency took the wind out their sails in the middle of the month.

 

Unless the Brewers get swept I think it's hard for Melvin to throw in the towel after this series because of just how average the NL Central appears to be this year. Problem is the Brewers aren't good enough to warrant becoming buyers either. Their bullpen and inconsistent offense has turned them into a mediocre at best club this year that absolutely should be looking to sell as the trade deadline approaches. Too bad Marcum's on the DL, because he would have netted good value via trade before his injury.

I agree with most of what you said here, expect for possibly your explanation for why the Brewers have had a mediocre season so far. The starters have been average in terms of ERA, the offense in terms of runs scored have been a little better than average. The bullpen is near the bottom of the pack in terms of ERA. You called the offense, "inconsistent", which is a claim made against the Brewers pretty much every year. I don't really know the answer but has the offense really had a higher spread in runs scored per game than expected?

 

The Brewers pythagorean record is in line with their actual record, so i think their problem is that they are just getting outscored in general.

[RockCoCougars]

10-11 so far this June with 3 road games against the 1st place Reds. If the Brewers had taken care of business earlier this month, they'd really be in the mix. Unfortunately the dreadful series in KC and continued inconsistency took the wind out their sails in the middle of the month.

 

Unless the Brewers get swept I think it's hard for Melvin to throw in the towel after this series because of just how average the NL Central appears to be this year. Problem is the Brewers aren't good enough to warrant becoming buyers either. Their bullpen and inconsistent offense has turned them into a mediocre at best club this year that absolutely should be looking to sell as the trade deadline approaches. Too bad Marcum's on the DL, because he would have netted good value via trade before his injury.

I agree with most of what you said here, expect for possibly your explanation for why the Brewers have had a mediocre season so far. The starters have been average in terms of ERA, the offense in terms of runs scored have been a little better than average. The bullpen is near the bottom of the pack in terms of ERA. You called the offense, "inconsistent", which is a claim made against the Brewers pretty much every year. I don't really know the answer but has the offense really had a higher spread in runs scored per game than expected?

 

The Brewers pythagorean record is in line with their actual record, so i think their problem is that they are just getting outscored in general.

 

I've been wondering about this. It seems to me that the offense is very inconsistent... more specifically they have problems scoring more than 3 runs (nearly half the time). Obviously it's a somewhat correlated stat, but they are 6-28 when they fail to score 4 runs.

 

Outside of doing the calculations manually, is there anywhere that you can find a team's standard deviation for runs scored per game? I'm guessing that the Brewers are relatively high when compared to other teams. They just seem very feast or famine to me. Looking at BR, they've actually had more games with 8 or 9 runs scored than 4 or 5. That seems way out of whack.

[TooLiveBrew]

With the amount of bunting RR/the Brewers do, I wonder if that's played a role in making the offense less consistent -- the notion that if you're playing for one run, that's all you'll get.

[logan82]

We have almost the exact same number of runs at this point this year as we did last year. I think it is within 3 runs. I do agree that the bunting and other small ball things may be limiting our run scoring. We really can't afford to be giving up outs like we have this year.

 

 

This is a season in which (imo) a GM needs to recognize the stars haven't aligned, and that it's a perfect time to be selling some of the most valuable arms in the game. Not to buy two bullpen arms and a SS in the hopes that a .525-talent team (or thereabouts) can win 2 of every 3 games the rest of the way.

I wouldn't have a problem with them picking up a SS if it was a guy who would be around at least next year or longer.

Obviously it's a somewhat correlated stat, but they are 6-28 when they fail to score 4 runs.

If I had to guess that would fall mostly on our pen. I think we had a ridiculous record in one run games last year.(30-18) This year we are 12-15.

[paul253]

The Brewers have twice as many teams in ahead of them (8) as they do behind them (4) in the wild card standings. They have 3 teams in front of them in the division. If the Brewers don't win at least 2 of 3 vs Cincinnati they should take calls for everyone on their roster except Braun and Lucroy (I'd include Gallardo but I'd even trade him if the price was right, it'd just have to be a really high price).

[logan82]

No matter what they do against the Reds they should be taking calls.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, this season so far just reminds me of the classic Uecker quote I'm sure I'm about to butcher...

 

A couple of slammers & they're right back in this game!

[rluzinski]

I've been wondering about this. It seems to me that the offense is very inconsistent... more specifically they have problems scoring more than 3 runs (nearly half the time).

 

I just looked this up but a team that averages 4.2ish runs/game is expected to score 3 runs about half the time. I think the Brewers are a bit above that but i don't think fans realize how often even an above average offense scores less than 4 runs. We are not talking about a bell curve here. A team can't score less than 0 runs, so those 8+ runs games really skews the distribution.

I've looked at run distribution a lot over the years. Some might be a little more extreme but all teams are all over the place in terms of runs scored. It's the maddening part of being a baseball fan.

[brewmann04]

if the Crew is swept then Mark needs to make the call that Doug needs to put guys on the wire.

[adambr2]

I agree. It's hard to put so much emphasis on 2 games out of 162 but in this case, at this juncture of the season, I think it's justified.

 

You win them both, you're 5.5 out and feeling pretty good about yourself. You lose both, you're 9.5 out and back to 9 under .500. At that point, you really have to consider moving in a different direction.

 

It's a huge two games, no doubt.

[rluzinski]

As a Brewer fan, I will not be feeling very good even if the Brewers win the next 2 games.

[Invader3K]

As a Brewer fan, I will not be feeling very good even if the Brewers win the next 2 games.

 

Exactly. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I just don't believe they have the horses to go the distance this year. The offense and bullpen are just too inconsistent. I don't see this being a team capable of putting together even a 5-6 game win streak to get back into the playoff hunt.

[brewmann04]

What cocerns me is that almost thru 3 months of the season they can't get on any kind winning streak.

[adamds22]

And they won't, this team with the holes we have is not at all a complete team. Our bullpen is a mess, our starting rotation is up and down and injured, some of our core players are not even coming close to their expectations and our replacements aren't doing very well either. For us to even make .500 I think we would have to have a handful off players figure out how it is to play baseball again and its been half a season and some of them still haven't figured it out so I doubt they will flip a switch and perform at their career numbers.

 

Management needs to see this and concede that this year is not going to be our year and get ready to build a team for next year that can out perform this years team. Hopefully some of the players like Weeks, AmRam, Ax perform like we expect them to but we need to start looking for a SS, fill what ever holes we are going to end up with in our rotation and fill up that bullpen for next year. If that takes trading Hart, Marcum, Grienke, KRod etc then they need to start figuring out what they can get for these guys and soon. Yes we are set to sell 3M tickets again this year so selling would not look good but we've already sold a majority of those tickets, you may take a hit towards the end of the season and fall short but if we restock and field a capable team next year we'll be back to the 3M mark again. If we field the same team next year that will not be the case at all.

[RockCoCougars]

I've been wondering about this. It seems to me that the offense is very inconsistent... more specifically they have problems scoring more than 3 runs (nearly half the time).

 

I just looked this up but a team that averages 4.2ish runs/game is expected to score 3 runs about half the time. I think the Brewers are a bit above that but i don't think fans realize how often even an above average offense scores less than 4 runs. We are not talking about a bell curve here. A team can't score less than 0 runs, so those 8+ runs games really skews the distribution.

I've looked at run distribution a lot over the years. Some might be a little more extreme but all teams are all over the place in terms of runs scored. It's the maddening part of being a baseball fan.

 

Thanks. The Brewers seem to be on the extreme end of maddening though. They've also scored 0 or 1 less times than they've scored 4 or 5 runs.... roughly 20% of the time.

 

To me, I think that it's more that they are dependent on the home run ball to score, and it seems that they hit home runs in bunches. It's tough for them to string together more than two hits in an inning (as indicated by the team batting average in the .230's... wow, has it ever been this low in team history?). I'm not sure about the small ball thing. I don't know what it is, but the Brewers have seemed to be poor fundamentally at offensive execution for a long time. It's almost ridiculous how hard that it is for them to get a lead off double over to third either by hitting the ball to the right or bunting.

[Dragonbait]

I this team was able to get a quick 5 game winning streak together, I'd be more optimistic.

 

but as far as this season goes, to me its a lost season. Doesn't mean I've giving up, but the lack of a really good stretch since LA........