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The sac bunt leads to an IBB to Ryan Braun


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Some rough numbers to give us some perspective:

 

Average Runs Scored:

1st and 2nd, 0 out: 1.57 runs

Loaded, 1 out: 1.65 runs

 

Braun getting an AB in scenario 1 is going to close that gap, so it's probably close to a wash, either way.

 

I think the whole thing is just an example of over-managing countered with over-managing. First, I don't understand why RR is constantly playing for 1 run. Unless the Brewers are down big, that is his default strategy. And walking the bases loaded is almost never a good strategy, since a walk bringing a run in overwhelms the advantage of a force at every base and the opportunity of a double play.

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You don't take the bat out of your best and really our only offensive threat. If that's the winning run at home, maybe. But he did it in the 5th inning with a 1 run lead and again in the 8th inning with a 2 run lead. It was clear as day that with 1b open, you don't pitch to Braun in that spot.

 

Aoki is hitting .300+, play for the big inning. Having him bunt is a huge mistake. Sure, maybe Aoki moves him over natually and they walk Braun, and that's one thing, but by bunting, it's just way too easy to walk Braun and then face Ramirez, who is much less of an offensive threat than Braun is these days. There's also the chance that maybe Aoki gets a hit or something crazy and then Braun could hit with 2 men on. It makes absolutely no sense to sac bunt in front of your best player, just so they can promptly walk him. I was irrate when it happened both times last night. Just another example in my opinion of RR making it MORE difficult for this team to win games.

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I didn't get to see the whole game and only saw one IBB to Braun. They tried pitching to him until the count was 3-1. At that point and as poorly as Kershaw was pitching, I can't help but wonder if they would have IBB'ed Braun regardless of what Aoki did in front of him.
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Earl Weaver: "If you play for one run, that's all you'll get."

 

Frankly, I'm tired of the suicide squeeze too. There was a game a few weeks ago where a Brewer hit a triple in the 1st or 2nd inning. RR put on the squeeze in a 0-0 game. Runner was thrown out going for home. Next batter hit into a DP. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

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I don't like the hit and run, but if there's ever a time to use it, it's with Aoki. Better still if Gomez/Plush is the runner on 1B.

 

Not saying they do this every time, but if it means less bunting I think they should mix in the hit and run with Aoki batting and Braun on deck.

 

Still, IBB Braun is going to happen- even with a runner on first. Not always a true IBB, but certain teams will not want to pitch to him. Not the worst thing in the word to put two runners on ahead of Ramirez. Plus it moves the line-up through faster and gives the top of the order one more AB per game. (Not saying that's the reason you would have Aoki bunt all the time, just saying that at least some positives come from it.)

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^^^^ this

 

I hate the contact play, especially when the infield is in. The 3rd base coach can clearly see the infield playing in, why can't they take the play off when they see the defense in like that? Unless CarGo is on third and gets a perfect jump and a high hop or something it ends in an out at the plate. If the ball gets through anyone scores easily, if not you still have the runner on third with 1 or 2 outs. If the infield is back and there is already an out and the pitcher is on deck fine go with it, otherwise just call it off when the other team is obviously playing for it.

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