The 50th Game:

[brewtank34]

So, I'm a day early, but tonight's game marks the 50th game in the season. I come on this board to learn from all you sabermetric fanatics as well as some good Brewer talk. Looking back on the 1st 50 games, can any of you provide stat's to show just how well off we are now with Braun in the line-up vs. 50 game suspension.

 

His stats are pretty on par with his career. He's 2nd in HR's. 3rd in OPS (1.013), 9th in OBP (.395)

 

Seeing how poor our offense has been this year combined with the horrible list of injuries we've experienced so far...I would argue to say that Braun is worth at least 4 W's on his own already this early in the season. I don't have the statistical data to prove that obviously, which is why I'm asking you all to confirm.

[RockCoCougars]

I shudder to think where this team would be without Braun in the lineup. I think that he's easily accounted for at least 4 wins pretty much on his own (including last night).

[3and2Fastball]

I believe that WAR is mainly meant to compare players.... if Braun's WAR for this season so far is 2 or 3, I definitely do not think that without Braun we would have only lost 2 or 3 more games

 

I look at the absence of Prince Fielder from our lineup and feel strongly that my previous thoughts of Gamel + Aramis > Prince + McGehee was foolhardy, and yet I do not have the mathematical data to back that up .... there is something about having a power bat like Fielder in the lineup that puts fear into pitchers and that effects the day to day games in ways that I don't think stats can fully articulate

 

And I say that as someone who is very much into baseball stats

 

Without Braun we're the worst team in MLB right now, I really believe that

[RockCoCougars]

I believe that WAR is mainly meant to compare players.... if Braun's WAR for this season so far is 2 or 3, I definitely do not think that without Braun we would have only lost 2 or 3 more games

 

Exactly. Hitting a two run homer last night surely doesn't account for 1 WAR, but if he doesn't hit the homer, they most likely don't score. Obviously Fiers deserves a ton of credit too, but if you don't score, you can't win. According BR, Braun is third in the league in runs created and has accounting for roughly 20% of the Brewers team RC. No doubt if you take him from the lineup, you can knock the Brewer average runs per game under 4. For a team that has scored 3 or fewer over half the time, take away their major run producer and they have real problems.

[Baldkin]

You can use WPA (Win Probability Added) as another way to judge a guy, and his "clutchness", thus far Braun is just over 2.0.

 

He's been great, but, in all reality, they couldn't have been 5 games (or something) worse than they have been even without him -- Unless Brooks Conrad went 0 for 150 in his place.

[Raw Biz]

Obviously the butterfly effect comes into play here: If Braun is suspended for 50 games, then everything else changes as well. Who knows if Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy, etc. all get hurt. Obviously without Braun and all those same injuries we would have been a lot worse. But I will say that given the choice between losing Braun for 50 games and losing Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy for the entire season, I'd rather lose Braun for those 50. That's not because those 3 are amazing but because the depth/trickledown effects were terrible. That's also not taking into consideration the stigma that Braun would be labeled a cheater (even though he basically already has been).

[rluzinski]

In a 1 run win, you could claim anyone who got a run or RBI won the game for their team, so you can't give a full win to any one player. Seems to be what many fans want to do and may be one reason why so many scoff at the relatively low seasonal "wins above AAAA player" numbers even a great batter puts up in a year. Also, fans seem to also sometimes ignore when a batter does something that hurts the odds of a team winning. You have to sum it all up.

 

WPA gives a percentage credit or debit for each PA but you can receive +WPA in a loss and -WPA in a win. Not sure if the original poster wants to include that performance or not. Also, WPA does not adjust for opportunity. If Braun has had a lot of opportunity to shift the team's odds of winning a game, so might have his replacement. Here are the WPA values for the Brewers so far this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&players=0

 

Not unexpectedly, Braun has more net WPA that anyone else on the team. His LI is about 1, which means he's average in terms of having gotten opportunities to rack up WPA.

 

Really though, it's impossible to reconstruct each game, with Braun being replaced by Aoki or whatever. His WAR does tell us that if he had been replaced by a AAAA backup and played in completely average games, he would have won 3 more games for his team than his scrub replacement. That's good enough for me.

[brewtank34]

Obviously the butterfly effect comes into play here: If Braun is suspended for 50 games, then everything else changes as well. Who knows if Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy, etc. all get hurt. Obviously without Braun and all those same injuries we would have been a lot worse. But I will say that given the choice between losing Braun for 50 games and losing Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy for the entire season, I'd rather lose Braun for those 50. That's not because those 3 are amazing but because the depth/trickledown effects were terrible. That's also not taking into consideration the stigma that Braun would be labeled a cheater (even though he basically already has been).

 

I can get by with this rationale. Thanks!

[HiAndTight]

I believe that WAR is mainly meant to compare players.... if Braun's WAR for this season so far is 2 or 3, I definitely do not think that without Braun we would have only lost 2 or 3 more games

I look at the absence of Prince Fielder from our lineup and feel strongly that my previous thoughts of Gamel + Aramis > Prince + McGehee was foolhardy, and yet I do not have the mathematical data to back that up .... there is something about having a power bat like Fielder in the lineup that puts fear into pitchers and that effects the day to day games in ways that I don't think stats can fully articulate

 

And I say that as someone who is very much into baseball stats

 

Without Braun we're the worst team in MLB right now, I really believe that

 

 

THANK YOU! I hear so many peopl use it to say, "well, we're only 2 wins worse this year," or if we trade for this all-star pitcher, he's worth at most one win the rest of the way." There is absolutely no way to determine that. I doubt Sabathia's

 

I actually agree that Gamel+Aram+Agon was better than Prince or Yuni and McGehee. I hardly think you were foolhardly in thinking that. Prince hasn't been a superstar, though pretty good. Aram usually starts slow, Agon was a HUGE upgrade. I think we upgraded our team and below expected performance and injury has totally negated that.

 

Of course it's possible we just got a little later start on our hot streak this year...which is fine, because at this point, I'd welcome a 1 game playoff with Greinke taking the mound vs anyone.

 

This might sound stupid, and I think it was more applicable during ST'ing, but this team might be a better playoff team(assuming it gets healthy). It just seems like we have more guys who can give you good at bats, rely less on HR's(though can still clearly hit them) and while I'm not big on manufacturing runs and even less when it comes down to 1st or 2nd inning runs, if you're facing Halladay, Kershaw, name your NL ace, I think we're pretty set up to do that in a close game.

 

Hell, maybe I'm just trying to convince myself.

[HiAndTight]

In a 1 run win, you could claim anyone who got a run or RBI won the game for their team, so you can't give a full win to any one player. Seems to be what many fans want to do and may be one reason why so many scoff at the relatively low seasonal "wins above AAAA player" numbers even a great batter puts up in a year. Also, fans seem to also sometimes ignore when a batter does something that hurts the odds of a team winning. You have to sum it all up.

 

WPA gives a percentage credit or debit for each PA but you can receive +WPA in a loss and -WPA in a win. Not sure if the original poster wants to include that performance or not. Also, WPA does not adjust for opportunity. If Braun has had a lot of opportunity to shift the team's odds of winning a game, so might have his replacement. Here are the WPA values for the Brewers so far this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&players=0

 

Not unexpectedly, Braun has more net WPA that anyone else on the team. His LI is about 1, which means he's average in terms of having gotten opportunities to rack up WPA.

 

Really though, it's impossible to reconstruct each game, with Braun being replaced by Aoki or whatever. His WAR does tell us that if he had been replaced by a AAAA backup and played in completely average games, he would have won 3 more games for his team than his scrub replacement. That's good enough for me.

 

 

No...it really doesn't. It's clearly faulty science when it comes to applying it to actual games and to state as a matter of fact that you can determine that Braun would be worth this many more wins via WAR is bad science and bad math IMO.

 

I try to stay away from matter of fact statements, though I do state things in opinion as though they're fact. But I'm saying it's a fact that you can't take WAR and directly relate it to a teams wins and losses.

[HiAndTight]

Obviously the butterfly effect comes into play here: If Braun is suspended for 50 games, then everything else changes as well. Who knows if Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy, etc. all get hurt. Obviously without Braun and all those same injuries we would have been a lot worse. But I will say that given the choice between losing Braun for 50 games and losing Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy for the entire season, I'd rather lose Braun for those 50. That's not because those 3 are amazing but because the depth/trickledown effects were terrible. That's also not taking into consideration the stigma that Braun would be labeled a cheater (even though he basically already has been).

 

 

Absolutely agree.

 

 

I also find it amazing that everything we've been through we're still just 4.5 games out right now. We're not as talented as the Angels obviously, but if Fiers can pull an Eldred for half a season....hey...we're still in it.

 

Might not be best long term, but if you're convinced Melvin and Mark A won't sell unless it's obvious we're out of it, then we might as well get on board..

[SenatorShriv]

This might sound stupid, and I think it was more applicable during ST'ing, but this team might be a better playoff team(assuming it gets healthy). It just seems like we have more guys who can give you good at bats, rely less on HR's(though can still clearly hit them) and while I'm not big on manufacturing runs and even less when it comes down to 1st or 2nd inning runs, if you're facing Halladay, Kershaw, name your NL ace, I think we're pretty set up to do that in a close game.

 

Hell, maybe I'm just trying to convince myself.

 

I think you are.

 

You win in the playoffs the same way that you win during the regular season. You score more runs than you allow. Right now this team is set up in a way that it has to hold teams to very few runs in order to win. In the playoffs you'll also be facing the best hitters so the point is kinda moot in my eyes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Preventing your opponent from scoring is the single most important component of winning games, so if your team has to lean toward one end of the spectrum or the other, pitching/defense is definitely the way to go.

 

Now that doesn't mean it's as much fun as watching Fielder & Braun sock HRs...

[Funketown]

Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs!

 

The most significant difference between the playoffs and the regular season is the 3-4 man rotation. With Marcum, Gallardo, and Greinke up front that might make the Brewers project a bit better in the playoffs.

[RightFieldCoder]

Preventing your opponent from scoring is the single most important component of winning games, so if your team has to lean toward one end of the spectrum or the other, pitching/defense is definitely the way to go.

Pitching/Defense is half the component for winning. The other half is offense. Giving up 8 runs a game isn't bad if you score 10 runs a game.

[monty57]

Obviously the butterfly effect comes into play here: If Braun is suspended for 50 games, then everything else changes as well. Who knows if Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy, etc. all get hurt. Obviously without Braun and all those same injuries we would have been a lot worse. But I will say that given the choice between losing Braun for 50 games and losing Gamel, Gonzo, Narvy for the entire season, I'd rather lose Braun for those 50. That's not because those 3 are amazing but because the depth/trickledown effects were terrible. That's also not taking into consideration the stigma that Braun would be labeled a cheater (even though he basically already has been).

 

The first thing I thought about when I read the initial thread was "butterfly effect." If Braun wasn't in the lineup, maybe Roenicke would've put Weeks in the #3 hole and he'd be hitting for a .900 OPS right now. No one knows what could have happened had something been altered. Bottom line is that I'm glad Braun wasn't suspended, because all things being equal (no butterfly effect) we'd be in much worse shape without Braun.

 

I look at the absence of Prince Fielder from our lineup and feel strongly that my previous thoughts of Gamel + Aramis > Prince + McGehee was foolhardy,

 

With Gamel injured, we won't know how this season's production from 1B/3B would've turned out, but Ramirez has raised his OPS by .100 points or so in the recent past. Unfortunately, his "warming up" is now offset with losing Lucroy.

[Funketown]

I'd peg it at three wins. There's no way of knowing with any bit of certainty, but given the numbers I think that's a pretty good ballpark estimate.

 

Three wins is nothing to scoff at either. Take three wins away from the Crew, and you're looking at a 19-31 record and 9 games out of first. That's a pretty big difference from where they are now.

[MJLiverock]

Preventing your opponent from scoring is the single most important component of winning games, so if your team has to lean toward one end of the spectrum or the other, pitching/defense is definitely the way to go.

 

Now that doesn't mean it's as much fun as watching Fielder & Braun sock HRs...

 

 

Haven't teams like the Mariners and A's tried that in recent years and battled for the cellar?

 

You can't win a 0-0 game, you have to score a run to win, you don't have to pitch a shut out to win.

[TooLiveBrew]

Preventing your opponent from scoring is the single most important component of winning games, so if your team has to lean toward one end of the spectrum or the other, pitching/defense is definitely the way to go.

Pitching/Defense is half the component for winning. The other half is offense. Giving up 8 runs a game isn't bad if you score 10 runs a game.

I'm only referring to the statistical impact found during research for Baseball Behind the Numbers... which I realize is years old now. Preventing your opponent from scoring had the strongest correlation with winning games.

[rluzinski]

His WAR does tell us that if he had been replaced by a AAAA backup and played in completely average games, he would have won 3 more games for his team than his scrub replacement. That's good enough for me.

 

 

No...it really doesn't. It's clearly faulty science when it comes to applying it to actual games and to state as a matter of fact that you can determine that Braun would be worth this many more wins via WAR is bad science and bad math IMO.

 

I try to stay away from matter of fact statements, though I do state things in opinion as though they're fact. But I'm saying it's a fact that you can't take WAR and directly relate it to a teams wins and losses.

 

I think you need to read my post my post again. I never suggested it was being applied to any actual game. The whole point of my post is that we will never know how the Brewers would have performed without Braun. They might be leading the division without him for all we know! WAR simply applies Braun's 2012 context neutral aggregate production to average games in the current run environment. It is "good enough for me", since we can't really answer the original poster's question.