Paul Konerko for the Hall of Fame?

[JohnBriggs12]

With the possible exception of Josh Hamilton, Konerko has been the most astounding bat this year at age 36: .399/.476/.681. I thought it would be a good time to examine his Hall of Fame credentials. He's got 407 (and counting) lifetime HR. He's hit 30 or more 7 times and well on his way to an 8th. He's had 6 seasons of 100 or more RBI. His career line is .284/.361/.504. He's a 5 time All Star, has one WS ring, and 7 postseason HR. He has benefitted from playing in a great hitters park. His home OPS is .932 vs. .801 on the road. Defensively, he doesn't have great range but he possesses a solid .995 FP. He's a model citizen, team leader and has no hint of PEDs.

 

My own guess is he needs two more productive seasons after this one. If that happens he'll surpass 2,500 hits, get close to if not quite reach 500 HR. That should get him in if voters overlook the home/road splits.

 

Editor's Note: "Hall of Fame Trial" is a pending trademark of another website.

[jerichoholicninja]

He won't get in unless he gets 500 homeruns.

 

Even if he does I wouldn't consider him hall of fame worthy. He's really, really good but not hall of fame caliber in my opinion.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Was just wondering this the other day myself.

 

Absolutely has to get to 500 homers, and even then, I think he doesn't make it. I think he's going to be Fred McGriff again, he's going to get 'very good'ed' out of the HoF.

 

(Yet guys like Rice and Dawson are in).

 

I think an .860-ish OPS for a first baseman in this day and age, compiled in a hitters park just isn't impressive enough to warrant serious hall consideration.

 

To me, a guy is 'dominant' in a season in which he puts up either a 150 OPS+, or a 150 ERA+. If a guy does that for at least 5 years in his career, and puts up good counting numbers, he's usually going to get in the HOF. Then you have your defensive guys like Ozzie Smith and Bill Mazeroski, and then you have your 'milestone' guys, the 3,000 hits guys like Robin Yount, and Lou Brock.

 

Konerko won't be in any of those groups. Before this year, he's had exactly one season where his OPS + was even higher than 140. He's only a 2 time top 10 MVP finisher. He's just very good, not great. And that's still something to hang his hat on. Just not something to hang a plaque on.

[brettac1]

Definitely one of the most under-appreciated players of his generation, pretty much by every segment of fan. Fred McGriff is a great comparison, though if I had to choose one of them for the Hall, it would be the Crime Dog.

 

I'm a big fan, but I don't think he'll make it in. I would think that maybe if the voters decided they were going to do some moral high horse thing and use a guy like Konerko to represent the "he did it the right way" contingent, he could get in. However, I think as the older generation of HOF voters start to fall by the wayside, a new group of voters who will be much more understanding of the "steroid era" will be ushered in that won't care about that storyline.

[Invader3K]

Here's baseball-reference.com's list of Konerko's most similar batters through age 35:

 

Fred McGriff (934)

Derrek Lee (902)

Carlos Lee (886)

Orlando Cepeda (886) *

David Ortiz (884)

Reggie Jackson (883) *

Gil Hodges (882)

Carlos Delgado (878)

Rafael Palmeiro (871)

Dale Murphy (864)

 

Very interesting that McGriff is at the top of the list. You also have two Hall of Famers and another guy who would be a slam dunk to get in if not for PEDs (Palmeiro).

 

I have a feeling if he gets to near 500 homers, he could well get in. To me, he seems like he's more in the "very good" category.

[3and2Fastball]

I dunno, I suppose it really depends on how he closes out his career and whether he finishes with over 500 HR's. He is a "maybe", to me... a very good player who has never really been dominant in terms of being thought of as "the best in the league"... but then I've been thinking of Adam Dunn as a potential Hall of Famer so I should probably rethink Konerko

 

Hitting 40 HR's for a World Series winning team certainly helps. A career OPS+ of just 123 for a 1B doesn't exactly scream "Hall of Fame!" to me....

 

His best seasons have been 2010 & 2011 and now he's even better this year, which is remarkable for a 36 year old. If that trend continues for a few years and he finishes with 500+ HR's and a .290+ career batting average, I think he might get in...

 

But how can it continue? How does a player get better in his mid-30's? Pretty rare

[DuWayne Steurer]

Here's baseball-reference.com's list of Konerko's most similar batters through age 35:

 

Reggie Jackson (883) *

 

 

Very interesting that McGriff is at the top of the list. You also have two Hall of Famers and another guy who would be a slam dunk to get in if not for PEDs (Palmeiro).

 

I have a feeling if he gets to near 500 homers, he could well get in. To me, he seems like he's more in the "very good" category.

 

Jackson had an OPS+ of 147 or higher 9 times.

 

Konerko has done that once. (twice, if you're counting this year)

 

Jackson led the AL in OPS+ 4 times. He's also a 5 time top 5 MVP finisher. B-R may see them as similar, but they're not all THAT similar.

[nate82]

Here's baseball-reference.com's list of Konerko's most similar batters through age 35:

 

Reggie Jackson (883) *

 

 

Very interesting that McGriff is at the top of the list. You also have two Hall of Famers and another guy who would be a slam dunk to get in if not for PEDs (Palmeiro).

 

I have a feeling if he gets to near 500 homers, he could well get in. To me, he seems like he's more in the "very good" category.

 

Jackson had an OPS+ of 147 or higher 9 times.

 

Konerko has done that once. (twice, if you're counting this year)

 

Jackson led the AL in OPS+ 4 times. He's also a 5 time top 5 MVP finisher. B-R may see them as similar, but they're not all THAT similar.

 

I think you are reading that wrong. It doesn't mean that Konerko has had a career similar to Jackson but that at this age they are similar players.

[RockCoCougars]

Looking at the stats, I was pretty surprised that he's been as good as he has. That said, I think he falls short. Not a bad career for a guy who was traded twice early on. I had forgotten that the White Sox got him for Cameron.

[Glennron]

I think you are reading that wrong. It doesn't mean that Konerko has had a career similar to Jackson but that at this age they are similar players.

 

Doesn't it mean that their careers through the age of 35 have been similar, and not their age 35 season? That's what I always took it to mean.

[Oxy]

In order to be in the HOF, you have to have at least around 3-5 seasons where you were the best player in the league at your position. I don't think Konerko has ever even been that once. As others have stated, he just has never had a dominating year where he was even in real contention for MVP honors. If he were a defensive whiz and a model citizen who the press absolutely loves I'd give him an outside shot. He certainly doesn't get any national buzz for that kind of thing though.

[Outlander]

Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future. Once he retires I can provide a better answer and analysis.

[JimH5]

He's trailing Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis and Orlando Hudson in career WAR and is 45th among active players. Maybe BR overstates the value of defense, but those numbers are striking.

 

Among active 1B/DH, he's behind Pujols, Thome, Helton, Berkman, Giambi, Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera & Ortiz.

 

His career WAR so far is 26.2, putting him 522nd among offensive players. There are some Hall of Famers with low career WARs, but they are also the guys on everybody's list considered as least qualified (Rick Ferrell 26.3; Freddie Lindstrom 26.8; George L. Kelly 23.4; Ray Schalk 25.0; Lloyd Waner 22.0, etc). They were also inducted at a time when politics and favors were more important than stats. I can't see that kind of thing happening in today's time.

 

There are other guys from this current era who are or aren't borderline Hall of Famers with much more value:

 

John Olerud 53.7

Will Clark 53.2

Robin Ventura 52.3

Jeff Kent 51.9

Bernie Williams 45.9

 

In his very best year, 2010, Konerko was a 4.3 WAR player. He's 36 now, so if you want to project him for another 12-14 points, that puts him around 40 WAR for his career. . .

 

In other words, "You can put it on the boooooooard. . ."

No.

[brettac1]

Olerud is the definition of underrated.

[Invader3K]

John Olerud 53.7

Will Clark 53.2

Robin Ventura 52.3

Jeff Kent 51.9

Bernie Williams 45.9

 

Kent is probably the only one on this list with a shot at getting into the Hall, and he was much more dominant at his position than Konerko has been.

[crewcrazy]

Konerko's had a really consistent, impressive career, but he's more of a longevity guy than a high-peak guy. If you're a "small hall" person, I don't think you can put him in. Hall of Really, Really Ridiculously Good, but not quite Hall of Fame for me.

[RockCoCougars]

He's trailing Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis and Orlando Hudson in career WAR

 

Wow. This really causes me to question the validity of WAR as a useful stat. How could Orlando Hudson have a higher 'counting' WAR than anyone with 400 homers and a career batting average over .280?

[Funketown]

FWIW, he leads Hudson in fWAR by a margin of 31 to 24.7. UZR grades his defense as mediocre to slightly below average while Baseball-Ref's stat (Total Zone?) rates it as monumentally horrible. B-Ref also gives Hudson a big boost on defense while UZR rates him as about average for his career. I'm not sure what they do about positional adjustments at BRef but I tend to prefer UZR to their defensive metric so I tend to favor fWAR as a descriptive measure.

[splitterpfj]

Konerko's always been good, but he's never been the best...he's got to be among the all-time leaders in something sexy when he retires, which he won't be - I think he's got to get to 500 HR.

[danzig6767]

I don't like HOF's in any sport putting consistently good, but never special players in.