How big of an effect would selling have on attendance?

[adambr2]

Is this something that will keep us from being sellers at any cost, no matter what the offers might be for Greinke?

 

99% of people here would understand in a selling situation, that if the season is lost anyway, there is little difference between winning 70 games and winning 75 games. Problem is, the majority of fans at Miller Park won't feel that way. (and frankly, many fans aren't really interested in going out to the park to watch a team that isn't playing for contention).

 

The team is very dependent on attendance to maintain this high payroll. I'm not sure the ramifications if they only sell 2.5M tickets vs. 3M, but I imagine it can't be good. Still, if they can't win now with what they've got, attendance is going to drop anyway, so you may as well do everything you can to reload if it comes to that.

 

Mark and Doug have some very difficult decisions to make. Since 2007, they've developed more of a culture of "contention" for the Brewers and making any obvious "sale" at the deadline is a clear step back from that philosophy.

 

I do not think they will be afraid to sell, but I think they will value "MLB ready" over "upside". In this case, I think that would be a mistake as I think the rotation will be too broken next year to return to contention with potential losses of Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf. Thornburg, Jungmann, and Bradley offer hope, but probably not until 2014.

[trwi7]

I do not think they will be afraid to sell

 

I completely disagree with this and if they do "sell" it will likely be the Carlos Lee trade all over again. Big league players.

[adambr2]

I do not think they will be afraid to sell

 

I completely disagree with this and if they do "sell" it will likely be the Carlos Lee trade all over again. Big league players.

 

I think that would be a big mistake. As it stands right now I think they are more than a couple big league players away from contention next year. Trading guys like Greinke for established big league players in a selling year rather than young players with tremendous upside who may be ready in 2014 defeats the whole purpose of selling IMO.

[Invader3K]

If the team doesn't start playing significantly better over the next 30 days, I think they'll have to sell. I don't know how you can take a look at the team right now, the potential losses of Greinke, Marcum, and K-Rod, and think this team is anywhere close to contending next season. It's time to load up on young, high upside players that can help in a season or two. I really don't think Melvin is going to trade for another Kevin Mench or Scott Linebrink, though I've been wrong before.

 

I said on Twitter yesterday, that if this team is not looking like a contender by the end of June, the team should put everyone not named Braun, Gallardo, or Lucroy on the table. No fire sales, but make everyone available in exchange for high upside young players. If the attendance takes a hit, so be it. Payroll will probably be back down next season anyway.

[igor67]

If I may simplify the trade strategy, get the best players available besides LF and Catcher. Time under team control is a factor worth considering, but most important in my mind is getting the best players we can find. The current farm system is deep enough to help fill in the cracks, so to speak around premium talent we are just short on premium talent.

[fondybrewfan]

This year I don't think it tickets sales much. Most tickets are already sold; September would like be pretty poor but I would be surprised if attendance didn't get at least close to 3 million.

 

2013 is an entirely different story and you can't really speculate right now. Doug will have a lot of money to spend this offseason and it will probably be a very different team in 2013. That could excite the fan base again.

 

It has been a long time since this team has been in sell mode. I never expected to not have these types of years every once in a while so this won't effect by long term decisions on attending games. Whether or not the Brewers are good; attending Brewer games seems to be the "hip" thing to do now. It is more than just the Brewers; it is the experience of going to the games.

[owbc]

75 losses, no "selling": 2.6-2.7 million fans

70 losses, "selling" starting in June: 2.5-2.6 million fans

 

It would make almost no difference because the team would be in 4th or 5th place either way and most tickets have already been sold.

 

I'm trying to think how it would affect 2013 attendance, but if Greinke and K-Rod are gone either way, the drop in attendance in 2013 will be mostly dependent upon new acquisitions. Even with the drop in revenue, they will have some cash to work with--although so will a number of other teams since attendance and revenue is up throughout baseball this year.

 

I assume that they will wait until July to start selling, since I know a decent portion of the fanbase and the front office seems to think that this season has some hope yet.

[craigharmann]

If they don't sell and the product on the field stinks, the attendance will suffer. This seems to be where things are heading. I hope it's not the case, but it seems like the product isn't going to improve, then you either bring up the younger guys, give other guys a shot and start looking to the future. I really believe Greinke could net a good haul of 2-3 solid young players with great upside.

[BradWI]

If they need to, they'll just add more promotions for cheap tickets to get people to the ballpark. Personally I'd probably go to more games once they are truly out of it as tickets will be cheap on the secondary market (and they are already creeping lower).

[RockCoCougars]

The effect on 'paid attendance' would be negligible this season, though I'd be willing to bet that there would be a bunch of unoccupied seats late in the season. The major issue for the Brewers would be an erosion in the season ticket base and suites that they'd run into this off season. Those sales will take a big hit.

[Funketown]

I guess my concern is that selling will lead to the Brewers' most recent honeymoon of popularity in Milwaukee to be over, even if it only costs a couple of wins. I'm probably not the best person to gauge that given that I'm about 1,000 miles away, but I just have a fear that attendance will go the way of the Cleveland Indians.

 

The only thing that should hold them back from selling right now or in a month is revenue loss. If revenue losses are fairly moderate and only affect the team this season, I say sell. If selling this season will affect revenues over a longer horizon, it becomes quite a bit more complicated. I'll let Mark A. and Co. be the judge of that.

[nate82]

 

I completely disagree with this and if they do "sell" it will likely be the Carlos Lee trade all over again. Big league players.

 

OK Debbie Downer.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I just hope they are honest with themselves. It would be great to have the team turn around over the next month and they are in a mediocre division. However, the only reason to hang on to Greinke would be if they believe they have a shot to keep him beyond this year. If that is out the window, which it sure sounds like it is, they need to try and monetize him for the highest value possible. They should be aware of what the bid/ask is on the contract. It's tough with all this TV money floating around. It's helped the Brewers in absolute terms, but not in relative terms. If Zack wants to leave, he'll find a suitor and a much bigger check than the Brewers can offer.

 

Losing Greinke and getting nothing versus getting something can only help next year with both the team and attendance.

[DHonks]

We're only what, 6 or 7 games back. We should even have conversations about selling for almost two months. Last year people we talking about selling at this time, too. A few acquisitions, some health, and a nice winning streak and we could be leading the division in only a few weeks.

[adamds22]

We do have a pretty weak schedule the next 4 weeks or so. We could be right back in it after these next couple weeks (Home vs Pit, Cubs, Padres and Away vs KC and Min)

[Funketown]

I don't know if it makes much of a big difference, but having the injuries might help some fans understand the sell-off if it should occur. Management could play it off as "re-loading" rather than "re-building", as that seems to conjure images of the early 2000's Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think fans would be fine if they put young players on the field and not a bunch of fillers. Fans got excited seeing Fielder in 2005. There's nobody on that level now, but let's see Schafer and Bianchi instead of Ransom, Izturis, and Morgan. Let's see Fiers and Thornburg instead of Parra. If Weeks struggles for another month, stick Green in at 2b a couple times per week. If Weeks gets hot, see if there is a market for him (even if the Brewers have to pick up some salary).

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it depends on the return. If we got our future short stop I thnk the fans would come to see what we have in him. If memory serves the rules for getting compensatory picks has changed in the new CBA. I don't believe a team can trade for a guy who is in his last year of a contract and get the compensatory draft picks if they don't resign him. If that is the case the return would probably be much smaller than it has been. After all teams used to trade for the player knowing they would get two draft picks as well.

[rluzinski]

We're only what, 6 or 7 games back. We should even have conversations about selling for almost two months. Last year people we talking about selling at this time, too. A few acquisitions, some health, and a nice winning streak and we could be leading the division in only a few weeks.

 

Two big differences. First, this year's team currently has significantly less overall talent. Second, Greinke and Marcum are both now on the last year of their contracts. It doesn't look like either are going to resign in-season, so trading them now will really only effect this year's team.

 

Sure, most teams are only a "nice win streak" away from leading their division but I don't think that is the litmus test for determining when to go into sell mode. if it was, no one would ever sell. You have to come up with a reasonable estimate for how LIKELY it is that the Brewers can make the post season this year. That (and the resulting drop in revenue from decreased in-season revenue) is the cost of selling.

 

For the sake of minimizing how much you piss off the season ticket holders, I would wait until the end of June to start selling. If the Brewers find themselves in about the same situation as they do now, I would start shopping Greinke, Marcum, Wolf and KRod.

[Ennder]

I wouldn't really begin to even think about selling until after the all star break and wouldn't be serious about it until July 23rd. If we are a significant number of games back on July 23rd they need to seriously consider it. We have a really easy schedule the rest of the way up until the all star break and then we face the Cardinals and Reds right after it so we'll have a really good idea of where things stand at that point. That is also 8 days from the trade deadline so they can start thinking of deals and discussing them if it looks ugly and then those two series can make the decision final.

[3and2Fastball]

the question is whether a team that sells will have an effect on attendance, when really the question should be:

 

How big of an effect will losing have on attendance?

 

Fans come out for winning teams. Whether we sell or not, this year's Brewers isn't going to have a winning record. Might as well sell and build a better team for '13/'14 ....

 

As far as the fans (the casual fans) reaction to selling, that all depends on how the Brewers publicize the trades.... it was fun having Blue Chip players like Fielder, Weeks, and Braun coming up through the minors. Fun anticipating their arrival. Fun checking out their video game type minor league stats. That will be fun again, if we can aquire some more Blue Chip prospects

 

Greinke plus K-Rod for Profar please

[RockCoCougars]

As far as the fans (the casual fans) reaction to selling, that all depends on how the Brewers publicize the trades.... it was fun having Blue Chip players like Fielder, Weeks, and Braun coming up through the minors. Fun anticipating their arrival. Fun checking out their video game type minor league stats. That will be fun again, if we can aquire some more Blue Chip prospects

 

Greinke plus K-Rod for Profar please

 

That may have been fun for the Internet GM types, but watching the big league team during that era was not fun, as evidenced by the attendance (outside of the MP honeymoon period). As someone who endured the down period from '93-'02, I don't want to endure another rebuilding period again. Personally, I'm against blowing everything up because Melvin neglected to build depth on the team and because Weeks and Ramirez forgot how to hit for 7 weeks. Bottom line, both Greinke and Gallardo are top 20 MLB starting pitchers, with Braun and the rest of the offensive core, there is no excuse for a rebuild. Get Greinke's agent back to the table and make an offer that reflects market value.

 

How does Profar make this team better in '13 or '14? Without Greinke, the pitching will likely be substandard, so we will be right back to 2010 with a bad pitching staff and a hotshot SS prospect that will have growing pains, best case, flameout worst case. I don't care how good this guy is, you cannot expect a 20 or 21 year old to step in and start leading a team right away. This doesn't even mention that the organization has basically no infield or catching prospects who will be ready the next couple of years. As far as I know, they have a couple of fringe outfield prospects and that's about it for guys who will realistically be able to contribute in the next 2-3 years. There are some decent pitching prospects who hopefully will be able to fill in the back end of the rotation if necessary though.

 

Bottom line, this team needs to step up to the plate and make a good faith effort to retain Greinke. If not, considering the state of the minor league system, they may as well do a full scale rebuild, trading marketable guys for multiple prospects.

 

If Greinke can be retained, I think this team can be salvaged. Otherwise, I see a long dry spell ahead. I've mentioned this before, but to me, there are lots of parallels between this squad and the '93-era Brewers. They are in a bit better shape because the '93 team had nothing like Braun, but otherwise basically you have a few good players, a few position players that show potential, some overpaid bad players and a farm system that has been milked pretty much dry from bringing guys to the majors over the past 5-7 years.

[DHonks]

i still wouldn't think of selling.

 

I also don't think we have much in the minors that could step in and play. I'm far less optimistic about Shafer than most here. I'm more a fan of Gindl than most on this board. Green needs to go back to AAA soon and play everyday. I love his potential even if his stance makes me cringe. But he's really only had 4 months of success in the last 5 years. I'd like to see him play regularly.

[monty57]

How does Profar make this team better in '13 or '14? Without Greinke, the pitching will likely be substandard, so we will be right back to 2010 with a bad pitching staff and a hotshot SS prospect that will have growing pains, best case, flameout worst case.

 

I think attendance is going to be down next season because of how bad the team's playing this year, so I think that "selling" done correctly could help attendance more than letting all of our free-agents-to-be play out a losing season and leave for free agency. I think the latter would really, really hurt attendance in 2013.

 

To the quote above, I've asked this before: How much difference over a season is Yo & Greinke (no Marcum) vs Yo & Marcum (no Greinke)? I'd say that if everything else is the same and both players play to their "norms", you might get an extra win or two with Yo & Greinke (no Marcum) than you would with Yo & Marcum (no Greinke). Greinke is a very good pitcher, but I think he's over-glamorized on this site in believing that he alone is a key to winning and all is lost without him. His Royals teams lost, and the 2012 Brewers are losing even with him pitching very well. We're not taking that big a step back by holding onto Marcum instead of Greinke.

 

So, if everything being the same Greinke brings an extra win or two over Marcum, then what happens when everything isn't the same? I would trade Greinke for a top prospect or two (whether that's Profar or someone else). Then if Marcum is still interested in remaining a Brewer, I'd extend him for 2-3 years with option(s). I'd also look at trading K-Rod, Veras and Loe who will all be gone at the end of the season. They probably won't bring much, but we'll get nothing by holding onto them. Finally, I'd shop Hart (who should bring back a lot in trade) while he's hitting like an All-Star and has 1.5 years of service time left, and Morgan who may not bring back a lot in trade, but who is redundant with Aoki on the roster and Schafer at AAA. These trades would bring us back young talent and save us a lot of money.

 

We would then go into next year with a core group of players intact, some of our young stud pitchers now MLB ready and a few good new prospects from this year's trades on the MLB roster. We'd have some money to fill in the needed gaps (RH corner OF, bullpen) and could "spin" things to keep fans interested in Brewer baseball, which is what is really necessary to try to keep fans coming to games. Far, far better than losing everyone to free agency and trying to build the 2013 roster from our farm and the "class B" free agent market.

[Bombers]

How does Profar make this team better in '13 or '14? Without Greinke, the pitching will likely be substandard, so we will be right back to 2010 with a bad pitching staff and a hotshot SS prospect that will have growing pains, best case, flameout worst case.

 

I think attendance is going to be down next season because of how bad the team's playing this year, so I think that "selling" done correctly could help attendance more than letting all of our free-agents-to-be play out a losing season and leave for free agency. I think the latter would really, really hurt attendance in 2013.

 

To the quote above, I've asked this before: How much difference over a season is Yo & Greinke (no Marcum) vs Yo & Marcum (no Greinke)? I'd say that if everything else is the same and both players play to their "norms", you might get an extra win or two with Yo & Greinke (no Marcum) than you would with Yo & Marcum (no Greinke). Greinke is a very good pitcher, but I think he's over-glamorized on this site in believing that he alone is a key to winning and all is lost without him. His Royals teams lost, and the 2012 Brewers are losing even with him pitching very well. We're not taking that big a step back by holding onto Marcum instead of Greinke.

 

So, if everything being the same Greinke brings an extra win or two over Marcum, then what happens when everything isn't the same? I would trade Greinke for a top prospect or two (whether that's Profar or someone else). Then if Marcum is still interested in remaining a Brewer, I'd extend him for 2-3 years with option(s). I'd also look at trading K-Rod, Veras and Loe who will all be gone at the end of the season. They probably won't bring much, but we'll get nothing by holding onto them. Finally, I'd shop Hart (who should bring back a lot in trade) while he's hitting like an All-Star and has 1.5 years of service time left, and Morgan who may not bring back a lot in trade, but who is redundant with Aoki on the roster and Schafer at AAA. These trades would bring us back young talent and save us a lot of money.

 

We would then go into next year with a core group of players intact, some of our young stud pitchers now MLB ready and a few good new prospects from this year's trades on the MLB roster. We'd have some money to fill in the needed gaps (RH corner OF, bullpen) and could "spin" things to keep fans interested in Brewer baseball, which is what is really necessary to try to keep fans coming to games. Far, far better than losing everyone to free agency and trying to build the 2013 roster from our farm and the "class B" free agent market.

 

I agree with all of this. Especially since I prefer Marcum over Greinke. (With the idea that the cost will be a lot less) ... Greinke has been pretty un-impressive in his year + with the Brewers.