Thornburg to the bigs?

[HiAndTight]

With Estrada's injury looking pretty serious today, and IMO, it being unlikely he's going to make his next start, and with Peralta having a couple of pretty ugly starts back to back, AND with Doug Melvin saying just two nights ago with regard to Thornburg that a pitcher can "easily," go from AA to the big leagues, what are the chance that Thornburg jumps over Estrada and makes the next couple starts in Estrada's place?

 

Now in fairness, Melvin ALSO stated that his preference was that a guy come along slowly and talked about how it CAN damage a player and how he prefers to have a guy make a stop at every level while he was talking about how you can, and again, he did use the word "easily," jump from AA to AAA.

 

But I think if Estrada's injury is as bad as it looked to ME, and even if it wasn't, I think the Brewers just simply need a pitcher who can go multiple innings in Milwaukee up there in any event.

 

I think you have to bring up Henderson in place of Cruz at the very least, and I think it'd be smart to at least bring up Thornburg and get him some innings...because if we have another short start, with the recent innings thrown by our pen, we definitely NEED some fresh arms.

 

 

 

Thoughts?

[narwhalattack]

I would absolutely love it if Thornburg is brought up to the bigs, but according to Tom Haudricourt, the Brewers are already considering using Manny Parra as a spot starter.

[paul253]

I don't like the idea of using Parra. The guy had no success as a starter after his rookie season. I'd love for him to succeed in the starting role, but he's finally found some success as a reliever and I don't want to mess with that.

 

If it is just one start I'd rather see them go with Fiers.

[HiAndTight]

I would absolutely love it if Thornburg is brought up to the bigs, but according to Tom Haudricourt, the Brewers are already considering using Manny Parra as a spot starter.

 

 

Well, I'm not opposed to that. Manny certainly has the ability to be a very good starter, and every year in the big leagues there are pitchers who have bounced around who perform very well after people have written them off.

 

But he's not stretched out first of all, so you're going to need someone to eat up a lot of potential innings. You can't keep pitching one inning guys 2 innings when you have a short start. Our BP is going to totally fall apart.

 

So we're STILL going to need someone capable of going multiple innings. Maybe this is a better idea. Manny starts the game, Thornburg comes in after 4 innings hopefully his first start if Manny can go 75 pitches and maybe Thornburg gives you 3 innings, less pressure, and you see what you've got after one or two of those starts. If Parra's pitching effectively and Thornburg's brilliant in short stints, you can't send them down in a year that you're potentially losing 3 of your starters.

 

You'd get a look at two of your potential starters for next year(though as big a fan as I've always been of Manny, unless it's as a #5 with Greinke, Gallardo, Peralta, Thornburg and then Parra as your rotation, I'm not real confident in him over the long haul.

 

By this time next year you should also have 3 more guys ready should the absolute NEED arise for AA guys to jump to the big leagues in Nelson, Jungman and Bradley. Not that it's ideal, but potentially.

[CheezWizHed]

If it is just one start I'd rather see them go with Fiers.

 

I don't care if its 1 or 10, he needs a chance.

[FVBrewerFan]

Perfect time for Fiers. Here is a guy who isn't projected as one of the top SP prospects. So you really don't want to commit to him being in the roatation to start next season. Just too big of a leap of faith.

 

But now, the way this season is going, there's really no downside to giving Fiers a chance. If he does well, or at least improves as the year goes on, now he's a legit option for the rotation next year. If he fails miserably, at leat you know what you have.

 

I rather go that route instead of starting Parra and messing with an already mediocre bullpen. Now if they really believe Peralta or Thornburg are ready, fine, bring it on. (Although Peralta cerainly doesn't seem ready.)

[Mass Haas]

Melvin's WTMJ Audio

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So it sounds like Thornburg won't be called up because he isn't added to the 40 man yet so we'd lose an option year from him in the case where he needed more development in the minor leagues. If he's not big league ready in 2.5 years, though, then he might be a bust anyways. I'd still go with Thornburg because he is the hottest pitcher in AA or above in our system, but I'm ok with Fiers being the guy as well. Just please, no Parra.

[TooLiveBrew]

I have zero problem with the Brewers not burning an option year on Thorny for just a couple starts. He should be up to stay at this point, but that's a different discussion.

 

And I agree it's time for Peralta or Fiers. It's probably going to be Fiers, which would be the third-best overall choice if you count Thorny. But *sigh* such is life with Melvin as GM.

[HiAndTight]

I have no problem with the decision to START Parra. I have a problem with the decision to replace Estrada with McClendon on the 25 man. What happens when we have a short start? Just burn up our BP again? Seriously?

 

Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, any of those three would have been great if not for a couple starts, but at least to come in after Parra who at best should give you 4 innings and easily could struggle to get through 2.

 

So then it's what, Loe for 2(who I think has about 20 appearances already), McClendon for 2....I don't know, it just doesn't make any sense to not add another stretched out arm.

 

I do think Parra COULD surprise. He's always had that potential. But christ what exactly is the plan? What are we counting on from him and then equally as important are we just going to assume the next two guys up are going to go 7 innings so that we can field a staff who's arms aren't falling off?

[HiAndTight]

I have zero problem with the Brewers not burning an option year on Thorny for just a couple starts. He should be up to stay at this point, but that's a different discussion.

 

And I agree it's time for Peralta or Fiers. It's probably going to be Fiers, which would be the third-best overall choice if you count Thorny. But *sigh* such is life with Melvin as GM.

 

 

Again, not seeing the option as being a big problem with Thornburg. If we find ourselves in 2015 and he's not ready yet, he's a bust.

[reillymcshane]

I wonder if they're bringing up McClendon for the weekend, then for Marco's nexts start, they simply option him again and bring up Fiers to start. It gives them an extra arm for the weekend.

 

Fiers is starting tonight at AAA, and would be all ready to pitch on Tuesday - Marco's slot in the rotation.

 

Can you option a guy as quickly as 5 days? Or do they have to stay in the bigs for a while?

[Mass Haas]

You can option a player back down after even just one game.

[TooLiveBrew]

I have zero problem with the Brewers not burning an option year on Thorny for just a couple starts. He should be up to stay at this point, but that's a different discussion.

 

And I agree it's time for Peralta or Fiers. It's probably going to be Fiers, which would be the third-best overall choice if you count Thorny. But *sigh* such is life with Melvin as GM.

 

 

Again, not seeing the option as being a big problem with Thornburg. If we find ourselves in 2015 and he's not ready yet, he's a bust.

It's not just the option, but the service time. While I agree that we're not exactly on the razor's edge with either TT's options or service time, if he'd have only come up for a start or two, I'd rather just keep him in the minors.

[HiAndTight]

I have zero problem with the Brewers not burning an option year on Thorny for just a couple starts. He should be up to stay at this point, but that's a different discussion.

 

And I agree it's time for Peralta or Fiers. It's probably going to be Fiers, which would be the third-best overall choice if you count Thorny. But *sigh* such is life with Melvin as GM.

 

 

Again, not seeing the option as being a big problem with Thornburg. If we find ourselves in 2015 and he's not ready yet, he's a bust.

It's not just the option, but the service time. While I agree that we're not exactly on the razor's edge with either TT's options or service time, if he'd have only come up for a start or two, I'd rather just keep him in the minors.

 

 

 

Service time? In our last year with Greinke and a 105 million dollar budget, are we really worried about what would likely be about 10 days of service time among 6 to 6 1/2 years?

 

I respectfully think the service time came into consideration even less than the options, and if the options came into consideration, which I don't believe it did, that would tell you something about the Brewers opinion of Thornburg that is very different than everything we've heard Melvin say about him. Incidentally, Thornburg's pretty much the only guy you can count on Melvin talking about in any detail when he joins the booth during a game.

 

The system will came up last week and he happened to mention that Nelson was hitting 98 last year, mentioned Jungman and Bradley, etc..etc..., but talked about Thornburg the most, LITERALLY even saying how you can "easily," go from AA to MLB these days and how it's often done.

 

So in my opinion, Thornburg will either be up to back up Parra the next time he's due to start, OR they are so high on Thornburg, they don't want to rush him or mess with him at all.

 

What I do think is obvious is that there should be some movement in the pitching staffs. McClung? Vargas? Really? We need subpar pitchers from the 2008 roster in AAA why? Thornburg to AAA, with either Kintzler or Sanchez and Nelson and Garman up to AA. See if maybe he has the stuff to become a loogy for us. He's put up respectable numbers thus far without looking at his splits. I'd assume a guy putting up good numbers as a left handed specialist would be much better vs lefties, but it's just an assumption.

 

There is something about moving Nelson, Jungman and Bradley together.

 

 

Getting off topic, what a rotation we could have if in some dream world everyone reached their ceilings, or maybe one slot away(I think Bradley if he can get his velocity touching 97 and sitting around the low 90's is a potential ace). But if we have Gallardo/Thornburg/Bradley/Nelson/Jungman Fiers as the long man with Peralta there also getting a crack.

 

It just seems like we're owed some Rays type prospect luck when it comes to pitching where guys who dominate throughout the minors actually continue to do so at the big league level.

[TooLiveBrew]

Service time? In our last year with Greinke and a 105 million dollar budget, are we really worried about what would likely be about 10 days of service time among 6 to 6 1/2 years?

 

Well, "worried about" doesn't accurately state my feelings. "Concerned about" (in general), yes. "Considering as a factor in when to call him up", yes. But it's not something I really think is a big deal at this point.

 

Ultimately, I just want to see TT up to stay in the MLB rotation. I'm about 99.9% sure he's already a better option than Estrada or Parra/Fiers/Replacement-Player-Madness.

[HiAndTight]

Service time? In our last year with Greinke and a 105 million dollar budget, are we really worried about what would likely be about 10 days of service time among 6 to 6 1/2 years?

 

Well, "worried about" doesn't accurately state my feelings. "Concerned about" (in general), yes. "Considering as a factor in when to call him up", yes. But it's not something I really think is a big deal at this point.

 

Ultimately, I just want to see TT up to stay in the MLB rotation. I'm about 99.9% sure he's already a better option than Estrada or Parra/Fiers/Replacement-Player-Madness.

 

 

Yeah, I suppose there is that chance that is TT gets into the big league rotation, he'd pitch himself into it for the rest of the year regardless of who comes back(sans an obvious innings limit).

 

That's the only thing I'm concerned with when it comes to service time though.

 

 

Fiers is the guy that should probably get the start though. Either him or Peralta. I don't put as much stock into a bad outing by Peralta as others seem to. But Fiers does seem like a guy who could hold down the fort pretty effectively for a stretch.

[JohnBriggs12]

Service time should not be an issue at all. The odds that Thornburg or any one minor league pitcher for that matter, will be an effective and successful enough major league pitcher 6 or 7 years from now that it will matter are fairly slim. If 3-4 years from now it appears he will, then you lock him up.

[Brewdude75]

I understand why Doug wants to have them try at every level to get a feel and a look for it.... BUT I have also heard him say a long time ago about how the difference between AA and AAA is very slight difference. If that is the case I do want them to bring up Thornburg. Why can't he do what other teams have done bringing up their young arms. I say let's roll the dice and see what he can do. It will just add to the excitement of watching the Brewers even more. Also Kranitz maybe able to see things that the minor league coaches aren't seeing and correction anything wrong that he may be doing.

[lj854]

Tom Haudricourt just tweeted that Fiers is likely to start Tuesday, although nothing is official yet.

 

Link:

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/154806805.html?ipad=y#!page=0&pageSize=10&sort=newestfirst

[TooLiveBrew]

Service time should not be an issue at all. The odds that Thornburg or any one minor league pitcher for that matter, will be an effective and successful enough major league pitcher 6 or 7 years from now that it will matter are fairly slim. If 3-4 years from now it appears he will, then you lock him up.

I get what you mean, but I disagree that service time shouldn't be an issue at all. It's always an issue, but it's relatively easy to stay on top of & manage.

[HiAndTight]

Service time should not be an issue at all. The odds that Thornburg or any one minor league pitcher for that matter, will be an effective and successful enough major league pitcher 6 or 7 years from now that it will matter are fairly slim. If 3-4 years from now it appears he will, then you lock him up.

I get what you mean, but I disagree that service time shouldn't be an issue at all. It's always an issue, but it's relatively easy to stay on top of & manage.

 

 

I agree. Of COURSE it's an issue for a team like the Brewers pinching pennies which is not to suggest they're cheap, simply saying that they're a team that has to spend very wisely and while they're in great financial shape right now, that's attendance driven which can change all too quick with a couple of down years which is certainly possible.

 

But saving a guy from being a super two, or holding him out so that we've got him for an extra year can end up saving you...10 million+ dollars easily if he's a stud pitcher. Just for an example, if he was to become a super 2, you could be paying him 3 million when you should be paying 500K, 5.5 when it should be 3, 8 when it should be 5.5 and 11 when it should be 8. Add that up and it COULD be over 10 million.

 

Not to mention it's not as simple as saying, "if he looks good 3-4 years from now, just lock him up." Not saying he's Lincecum or will be anything close to him, but no only did he get 9 million his 3rd year as a super two, but it's not always so easy to just "lock 'em up."

 

 

So...it shouldn't be your only consideration, but it's be foolish to NOT consider it. And when you have two options that seem to be equally good, ie, a AAA pitcher who has underwhelming stuff while overwhelming everyone at every level and another who is in AA and has overwhelming stuff, but hasn't reached the top of the ladder...it should definitely be considered.