The curious case of JJ Hardy

[The stache]

In 2007, JJ Hardy was an All Star for the Milwaukee Brewers at shortstop. He was a cog in one of the best young offenses in MLB that included other homegrown talents Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart. Between 2007 and 2008, Hardy hit 61 doubles, 50 home runs, and drove in 154 runs. His star was most definitely on the rise. Curiously, after having one bad season, the Brewers gave up on Hardy. They had another young short stop in Alcides Escobar that many thought was a future star. He was traded to the Minnesota Twins for Carlos Gomez. He played one season in Minnesota, hitting only 6 HR in half a season.

 

Fast forward to 2012. Hardy is again one of the best offensive shortstops in the game. In his last 166 games with the Baltimore Orioles, Hardy leads all MLB shortstops with 39 home runs. More than Troy Tulowitzki, more than Asdrubal Cabrera.

 

Escobar, the future shortstop, is with the Royals hitting .300 with 7 SB in 8 tries, and is on a pace to hit 50 doubles.

 

Did we give up on JJ Hardy too soon?

[RockCoCougars]

Hardy deserved his demotion to Nashville. It had nothing to do with service time at all....

 

As I said in another post, Hardy was a convenient scapegoat for Macha/Melvin. Hands down this will go down as the 2nd worst move of the Melvin era, nothing else is close.

[Gobias Industries]

Hardy deserved his demotion to Nashville. It had nothing to do with service time at all....

 

As I said in another post, Hardy was a convenient scapegoat for Macha/Melvin. Hands down this will go down as the 2nd worst move of the Melvin era, nothing else is close.

What's the first?

[DHonks]

Stache, the Brewers never gave up on Hardy. They saw his salary request being too high, the availability of a replacement, and his refusal to switch to 3b. In the end, they traded him for a cheap high ceiling CF in an era when we had no quality CF prospects. It obviously hasn't worked out great. They wouldn't have traded him had they foreseen the Greinke deal

[RockCoCougars]

Hardy deserved his demotion to Nashville. It had nothing to do with service time at all....

 

As I said in another post, Hardy was a convenient scapegoat for Macha/Melvin. Hands down this will go down as the 2nd worst move of the Melvin era, nothing else is close.

What's the first?

 

http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/assets_c/2010/06/suppanthumbs-thumb-225x168.jpg

[Gobias Industries]

Ha! Can't believe I forgot.

[Baldkin]

 

Did we give up on JJ Hardy too soon?

 

It took JJ getting run off two teams to actually get his head on straight and work out in the off season. I doubt he'd done that had he been gifted the SS job for another two years in Milwaukee.

[pete]

Wait, where does Gagne rank?

[jerichoholicninja]

The Brewers didn't handle JJ's situation the best, but he sucked at the end and I can't blame them for demoting him.

 

If he would have agreed to play 3rd base the organization would be in a much better shape right now. Heck, he might be playing short stop again.

[Invader3K]

People forget how terrible Hardy was that season. Escobar's play at the time also seemed to justify Hardy being demoted for Alcides. Didn't work out in the end, but I agreed with the decision at the time.

[pete]

The problem was that Melvin demoted him on the exact day that would give the team another year of control before he went to free agency and then claimed it had absolutely nothing to do with the decision.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers liked Escobar and what was not to like? He's a plus defender at a key position and they figured he would hit enough. It's taken a little time for his bat to come around, but he's progressed every year. Apparently the talk about Escobar got in Hardy's head that year.

 

All's not lost. Carlos Gomez has progressed too. So it's not like Hardy was given away.

[Invader3K]

The problem was that Melvin demoted him on the exact day that would give the team another year of control before he went to free agency and then claimed it had absolutely nothing to do with the decision.

 

I agree it was a bit disingenuous to say that, but I had no trouble manipulating things to gain an extra year of team control. It's not like MLB or Hardy were out to help the Brewers at that point.

[pete]

I think its more likely that he was lying rather than disingenuous.

[3and2Fastball]

Escobar was a key aspect of the Greinke trade, so in that way his value was golden.

 

As far as our use of Hardy, that remains to be seen. If Carlos Gomez can actually play up to his potential (a big "if" that has followed him his whole career) then it was a great trade.

[TheCrew07]

With Escobar behind him, trading Hardy was inevitable, the organization never even approached him about an extension. Extending Hardy prior to arbitration just a couple of years into FA would have been a better plan as it would have increased his trade value and hedged a bit against an Escobar complete collapse. Trading Hardy is the kind of tough decision that is a necessary one for Milwaukee to make, but it's the timing that determines the ultimate value.

 

The problem wasn't Trading Hardy, the problem was 2 trading MLB caliber SSs in 3 years, both moves were completely reactionary and neither move may have netted any kind of long-term solution.

 

I'm not sure it's fair to say that flipping an everyday SS for a platoon CF with a career .659 OPS was good value. Gomez will be a FA in 2014 and if he does finally breakout the Brewers shouldn't sign him to the kind of contract he'd be looking for, there are just too many variables there.

 

As for Greinke we gave up a ton if we only manage to hang onto him for 2 years which seems likely. Cain is hurt again and Jeffress still hasn't put it together but Escobar will be a better than average SS for KC and Odorizzi is putting up huge numbers in AA pitching in a tremendous hitter's park. Up until last week Jake only had 1 start on the road all season, that's just how the schedule shook out for him, so he's been putting up all his numbers his bandbox home park. He's been featured in a BA blog post just about every week so far this season. I still have no doubt he's going to be a very good pitcher, he has 3 plus pitches, maybe 4 depending on whom you ask.

 

Jeffress won't ever provide tremendous value because he's a reliever, but he still has back of the pen upside, and if Lo Cain can stay healthy he'll be a better than average CF as well. Does 2 years of Greinke justify giving up 5 years of Escobar and 6+ of Odorizzi? What if Cain and Jeffress become everyday MLB players? For me there just no way 2 years of anyone carries that much value, now if we're talking 6 years of Greinke my perspective changes, but for 2 years it wasn't worth it.

 

I understand how bad the organization's pitching situation has been which is why I've been continually whining to address it with long-term solutions since 2006. The Brewers didn't have to end up in the situation they did and Melvin didn't have to trade for Greinke when he did, it was simply Melvin's belief in high floor veteran pitching solutions that led us down this road. His inability to identify solutions outside of CY candidate pitchers to fix the rotation is the only thing that has been holding this organization back. Plenty of GMs would have made the Greinke trade and I'd guess the overwhelming majority of the posters on this forum would have as well, but I don't think any of the GMs who I'd consider the best in the game would have made that deal. Maybe Daniels would have, he did trade for Lee, but he's also made some fantastic trades for prospects as well, he sees the value both ways.

 

I'm not opposed to trading prospects, not in the least, but I am vehemently opposed to rental player solutions (thankfully a relic of the past with the new CBA) or any kind of band-aid fix. If I'm trading surplus talent I'm looking for solutions I can control for 3+ years. Anything less and you aren't plugging a hole because you don't have time to develop a player to replace the one you just traded for, you're just temporarily putting your finger in the dyke to slow the leak down. Even the with the Marcum and Greinke trades we'll end up in 2013 exactly where we were coming out of 2010 pitching wise... Gallardo and no other established impact pitching behind him in the rotation. Peralta and Thornburg certainly could have an immediate impact but then again they might need time to build into their careers a little bit as well, that's why the smart course of action would be to get Peralta some experience this season so that if he goes a little Matt Moore he does it as the #5 and is ready to go for 2013.

 

I would really like to get to the place the Rays and Rangers are as organizations, very competitive MLB teams and yet they manage to have incredibly strong farm systems at the same time. It doesn't have to be 1 or the other, it could be both, but that's never going to happen with Melvin as our GM. Somehow the Rays continually manage to break in a young starting pitcher and/or position player every year and yet remain competitive, it can be done. With Melvin there is absolutely nothing in his trade history going to back to his time in Texas to suggest he's interested in stockpiling talent throughout the organization. He's a short-sighted and reactionary GM who isn't able to play both sides of the talent pool effectively. He can buy obvious talent with prospects, but he's unable to ever sell high on a MLB player and replenish the talent pool because he doesn't trade for impact prospects. Cycling talent effectively is perhaps the most important trait for any mid to small market GM, but there's no talent cycle in Milwaukee other than the draft.

[dlk9s]

Wait, where does Gagne rank?

 

Not really all that high. It was one year. No big whoop. Plus, from July 21, he was actually pretty solid.

[3and2Fastball]

I think with the Greinke trade it was Melvin taking a shot/rolling the dice and I could write about could've and should've all day long but I think it was the right move because without the complete collapse of Marcum and maybe making one other smart move (trading for Furcal for instance) the Brewers would have gone to the World Series and had a great shot at winning the whole thing.

 

So in that way it is worth it...

[RockCoCougars]

Wait, where does Gagne rank?

 

That one misses my Top 5.

 

#3 -David Riske, 3 years with a 4th buyout. Enough said.

#4- "OK, great we'll take Cordero and Mench for Carlos Lee, but I have to get Laynce Nix. You can pick another AAA guy from a list"

#5 -"Davis is expendable with Soup in the fold, and I can't figure out why Estrada has been on 4 teams in 4 years. The guy can flat out hit. I'm sure that he's serviceable enough behind the plate."

[Baldkin]

Wait, where does Gagne rank?

 

#4- "OK, great we'll take Cordero and Mench for Carlos Lee, but I have to get Laynce Nix. You can pick another AAA guy from a list"

 

Cruz was on waivers the next season. Every single MLB team could've had him. I'm so sick of this being called a bad trade because of him.

[3and2Fastball]

Cruz was on waivers the next season. Every single MLB team could've had him. I'm so sick of this being called a bad trade because of him.

 

2 mistakes doesn't make it right. The fact that others teams made the mistake of not picking him up the following year doesn't negate the mistake of trading him in the first place.

 

How much better would this team look right now with Nelson Cruz in right and Corey Hart at 1B? Or they could've gotten a haul for Fielder a few years back. Or they could've traded Hart by now. Any way you look at it, it was a poor decision and poor talent evaluation.

[RockCoCougars]

Cruz was on waivers the next season. Every single MLB team could've had him. I'm so sick of this being called a bad trade because of him.

 

It wasn't solely a bad trade because of him. Kevin Mench was absolutely brutal. At the time of the trade, lots of people were apprehensive or upset including Cruz in the deal as seemingly a throw in. It's not like he came out of nowhere, because he put some big numbers up in the minors.

 

That said, personally I'm sick of seeing the waiver thing thrown out there. To me, trading a guy off your roster is much more egregious than getting a waiver claim snuck by you, right before the season. As is usually the case, I'd be willing to bet that the Brewers had multiple pitchers on the D.L. at the time along with Cameron's suspension, further complicating efforts to make a waiver claim on an outfielder.

 

Bottom line, how many times have the sellers been burned by a prospect on a deadline deal? I bet not many. It's supposed to be the other way around.

[brwrsfan]

Melvin gets a lot of flack about the Hardy move, but people seem to forget that he sucked pretty bad on the Twins too, and he again couldn't stay healthy. They got rid of him too...

[Baldkin]

Cruz was on waivers the next season. Every single MLB team could've had him. I'm so sick of this being called a bad trade because of him.

 

It wasn't solely a bad trade because of him. Kevin Mench was absolutely brutal. At the time of the trade, lots of people were apprehensive or upset including Cruz in the deal as seemingly a throw in. It's not like he came out of nowhere, because he put some big numbers up in the minors.

 

That said, personally I'm sick of seeing the waiver thing thrown out there. To me, trading a guy off your roster is much more egregious than getting a waiver claim snuck by you, right before the season.

 

The point of the waivers thing is even a full year later the Rangers didn't think he was anything special. Clearly he completely changed something, or something clicked, which rarely happens to 27 year olds... otherwise we'd all be holding out hope for Ishikawa.

 

Mench was fine, he was what he was, a lefty mashing platoon guy. The problem was Yost had no idea what a platoon or splits were. (OPS vs lefties '06, '07: .876, .901)

[RockCoCougars]

I stand by my contention that Mench was horrible both at the plate and in the field. Considering that he was the centerpiece of a deadline deal involving the team's best hitter, let's just say that Melvin was lucky that Cordero found himself in Milwaukee. If he hadn't, that deal would have made the Greg Vaughn to the Padres deal look like a steal for the Brewers.