If we sell, what are the pieces to sell?

[reillymcshane]

I think Wolf last 3 starts should have been wins and they might just pick up his Option.

We owe Wolf $10 million next year or a $2 million buyout. Think about Wolf this way - if he's a FA, is he worth $8 million (which is what his option essentially costs us)?

 

I'd say no. I would think you could take $8 million and spend it more wisely.

 

The following guys signed for well below $8 million.

 

Capuano

Harang

Saunders

Maholm

Bedard

Colon

Chen

Garcia

 

I probably missed some guys too. And yes, a lot of those guys are (were) injury risks. A couple got two year deals, but at a reasonable annual salary. But Wolf has a 5.00+ ERA. Unless he improves it, no one is going to want to pay him $8 million a year. You can get a back-of-the-rotation guy for much cheaper than that.

[monty57]

I don't think it's that people think he is lazy or delusional, it just seems like almost all of his trades have been about improving the team immediately, even if he could have maybe gotten higher ceiling prospects instead. Yeah they've got the occasional prospect (De La Rosa, Zach Jackson, Capellan) but two of those three also included major league talent. He doesn't seem to like trading major league talent (especially talent that should net a decent return) for only prospects.

 

That's a good observation. I'm not convinced that if Greinke (and/or Marcum) is traded that the Brewers will be looking for A or AA ball prospects, regardless of their ceilings. The rotation is looking like a complete mess for next year. The Brewers do not control Greinke or Marcum. If Wolf keeps pitching like he has so far over the course of the season, there is no way the Brewers can pick up his option for next year. Who knows what shape Narveson's shoulder will be in, if anything you'd have to consider 2013 a rehab-type year for him. The top minor league option heading into this year (Peralta) is having a bad year and if you want to pencil him into the major league rotation for next year you probably cannot count on him being anything more than a #5. If Greinke and Marcum both leave, how does the 2013 rotation currently stack up? Gallardo, Estrada, Thornburg, Fiers, Peralta? Free agency? For starters the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs (and others) will be heavily involved in looking at free agent starting pitchers. I don't see the Brewers having much of a chance to add much quality when they'll have to bid against the big boys.

 

Because of that I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin passes on higher-rated prospects playing in the lower levels and trades for major league pitchers or starter prospects that are so advanced that they figure to stick in a major league rotation in 2013. Not the approach I would take, but I think there is a good chance the Brewers will prefer this strategy. If they don't trade for MLB pitching or nearly-guaranteed MLB pitching it will almost be like they've given up on any chance of winning in 2013, which would be totally out of character for Attanasio.

 

First off, welcome to the board.

 

Regarding Wolf, we'll have to see how the rest of the season plays out. He started off really poorly, but has pitched much better since. Some team may trade for him based on his track record and the fact that he's pitching better. Or, we may exercise his option if he continues to pitch well. As you mentioned, we don't have many other rotation options and at least Wolf's would be a one-year deal.

 

Regarding the second paragraph, we have some talent in the low minors, but not really in the upper minors. I think Melvin should look at MLB-ready guys who are either in AAA or are early in tehir MLB careers. I worry that he'll look at MLB-proven guys who only have a couple of seasons of "control" remaining.

[cvollbrecht]

With Beachy now out for the year we could try and offer them Marcum if he checks our health wise. Minor still intrigues me even though he's had a rough start to the year. He would look great as our 2nd LHP next year with Narveson. Pastornicky gives us at worst a cost-controlled bridge to Riviera in a few years.

 

Marcum

for

Minor & Pastornicky

[TooLiveBrew]

Why would the Braves be interested in half of a season of Marcum for a combined 12 or so seasons of cost control of two young players like Minor & Pastornicky? That's like proposing the Brewers deal Thornburg and Lucroy for a rental of Mike Napoli or Melky Cabrera.

[monty57]

Why would the Braves be interested in half of a season of Marcum for a combined 12 or so seasons of cost control of two young players like Minor & Pastornicky? That's like proposing the Brewers deal Thornburg and Lucroy for a rental of Mike Napoli or Melky Cabrera.

 

We're not really in the same situation. The Braves have an abundance of young pitching and two good young SS. They are right on the cusp of a playoff spot, and don't have boatloads of talent leaving at season's end that will turn them from a playoff hopeful to a bottom feeder. They have young talent on the MLB roster and a strong minor league system. They are in a position where they can trade some of their "blocked" parts for that extra push to get them to the playoffs.

 

I don't know if the suggested trade is too much to ask for Marcum, but the Braves were talking about looking for a good, veteran SP before Beachy went down, and are now desperate for one. Minor is talented, but hasn't looked good this season so I doubt the Braves want to count on him, Delgado and Jurrjens for their playoff run. If not him, then maybe one of their other MLB-ready SP would be available. Meanwhile, Pastronicky has some talent but was demoted for a younger, more talented player so there's really nowhere in the organization for him.

 

To your analogy, the Brewers don't really have a comp for Minor, as they don't have a lot of depth anywhere in the minors, but Pastronicky is probably a better comp to Maldonado than Lucroy... the 2nd best young player the team has at a position who could be a starter if a team doesn't have a good option, but probably won't be a star. I'd be happy to have Pastronicky since we're woefully thin at SS in the system and we could have him on an inexpensive deal for 5+ seasons, but he's trade bait for the Braves.

[RockCoCougars]

With all due respect to his recent turnaround, Wolf is not worth $8 million per. I might consider bringing him back on a much reduced incentive laden contract under the right circumstances, but that depends. On a related note, I hope that Melvin doesn't give out buyouts to any more older pitchers. Between Suppan, Riske and Wolf (if bought out), that has to total $4-$5 million just to make guys go away.

[paul253]

That's like proposing the Brewers deal Thornburg and Lucroy for a rental of Mike Napoli or Melky Cabrera.

 

No it's not, not even close.

 

First of all, Minor's ERA is over 6. If Atlanta is serious about a playoff run there are going to need a major upgrade. Plus, it's not like they don't have a plethora of young pitching talent they can insert into the rotation next season if they don't re-sign Marcum.

 

Second, while Pastornicky may have a decent amount of upside, I can't imagine it's anywhere close to what Thornburg's upside is. Thornburg has firmly established himself as a top 100 prospect, and I'd even go so far as to call him a top 50 prospect. He is more or less major league ready as well, though a few starts in AAA wouldn't kill him. And like Minor, Atlanta already has a replacement for Pastornicky in Andrelton Simmons. Atlanta would be wise to move Pastornicky now before his value starts to drop.

 

I wouldn't trade Thornburg straight up for Melky Cabrera or Mike Napoli. I wouldn't trade Lucroy straight up for either of them either. And I certainly wouldn't trade them both for Cabrera or Napoli. You are certainly entitled to your opinion of the Marcum for Minor and Pastornicky deal. But your trade is not even remotely similar to the trade proposed by cvollbrecht.

[RockCoCougars]

What am I missing on this Pastornicky guy? I see his name tossed around all the time here, but he did not impress earlier this season, and he really hasn't hit in the minors. Is he just someone seen as a warm body at shortstop who's fairly young or what?

[TooLiveBrew]

I wouldn't trade Thornburg straight up for Melky Cabrera or Mike Napoli. I wouldn't trade Lucroy straight up for either of them either. And I certainly wouldn't trade them both for Cabrera or Napoli. You are certainly entitled to your opinion of the Marcum for Minor and Pastornicky deal. But your trade is not even remotely similar to the trade proposed by cvollbrecht.

 

The instant-refusal my "proposal" elicited is exactly what I was getting at. I didn't spend much time trying to find really accurate comps for Minor/Pastornicky, because my main point was that cvollbrecht's offer leans heavily in favor of the Brewers. Yeah, Minor's ERA this season isn't good, but that doesn't mean he's not still a good young arm. And while Pastornicky hasn't yet hit at the big-league level, he's only in his age-22 season & is hitting pretty well for a MIF for the second straight (partial) season at AAA... and at 22 is still pretty young for even AAA.

 

Even if someone thinks that both Pastornicky & Minor (BB Amer.'s #37 prospect pre-2011) are overhyped guys who don't have much value (with which I obviously disagree), the Braves could do much better than just burning both of them for half of a season of a good but not great SP. Keep in mind, if the Brewers did receive these two guys in exchange for Marcum, they'd literally have team salary control over them each for the next 5 or 6 seasons. I can't see how anyone would realistically expect the Braves to think that's an even return. If the discussion is one of these two guys for a healthy Marcum, then imo we're in the right ballpark.

 

One other thing to keep in mind, if we're factoring in organizational 'situations' or depth, is that the Braves are really cash-strapped at the moment due to an ugly ownership situation. So the young cheap guys have arguably even more value to the Braves right now than they do the Brewers. I realize this situation is counter-intuitive, in that Atlanta's the much bigger market & has a history of sustaining higher payrolls. But the reality in recent years (& very much kept under wraps, in terms of the national baseball conversation) is that the current Braves ownership is getting ready to sell the team before too much longer (iirc after the end of this season), & has been/is keeping payroll low.

[paul253]

The instant-refusal my "proposal" elicited is exactly what I was getting at

 

Eh.....if Atlanta would turn it down then say Atlanta would turn it down. Don't say "that deal would be like...." and then enter some ridiculous trade idea that isn't nearly as fair as the other offer. I mean, Thornburg and Lucroy for Mike Napoli? Come on.

 

Shawn Marcum is having a good season. He had a good season last season. He had a good 2010, and a good 2008. He is a good pitcher. And even though he is a free agent after this season he'd still be a pretty decent upgrade over Mike Minor. If Atlanta has payroll issues this might be a good deal to take because they wouldn't be on the hook for a huge salary next year. If they feel they have enough options for the rotation next season I can't seem them being all that worried about moving Minor. Pre-2011 was a long time ago. He put up an ERA over 4 last season and so far his ERA is over 6 this season. Surely that has taken some luster off of his BA prospect ranking from 2 years ago. I understand what you are saying about him and I am not saying that Atlanta should be giving up on him. But right now they are only half a game out of the wildcard spots and if they think Marcum can help them out they may take a chance on him.

 

That being said. I don't think I'd trade Marcum straight-up for Minor. I say this because I think you offer Marcum the one year deal if you don't trade him. If he accepts, you have a #3 starter for next year in a year you are really going to be hurting for pitchers. Not the end of the world. If he declines, you get two picks and I think the value of the two picks is greater than the value of Mike Minor.

 

As far a Pastornicky goes, he has never really hit for a high average other than one year. His slugging % has been pretty low outside of 2011 as well. He obviously steals a lot of bases and draws a lot of walks. I see his offensive potential as something like Scott Podsedniks. If he weren't a shortstop I wouldn't even consider trading for him. And again, I probably wouldn't do Pastornicky for Marcum straight up, though it would be nice to have a young, team controlled shortstop for a few years.

 

That leaves Marcum for Minor AND Pastornicky. Maybe Atlanta wouldn't do it, but I bet if you throw in another player they would. Either a bullpen guy like Veras or a mid ceiling, low level prospect like Kentrail Davis or Nick Ramirez. Either way it's an idea to explore and I don't think it's as far fetched as you do.

[TooLiveBrew]

Eh.....if Atlanta would turn it down then say Atlanta would turn it down. Don't say "that deal would be like...." and then enter some ridiculous trade idea that isn't nearly as fair as the other offer. I mean, Thornburg and Lucroy for Mike Napoli? Come on.

 

Fair enough... fwiw, I used Napoli because I was restricting myself to the '13 FA list so service time would be the same as with Marcum. I realize Napoli with Lucroy involved makes the deal worse, which honestly didn't occur to me since I was trying to just come up with a quick comp. I do think that Marcum is being very much overvalued if the return is expected to be something like two young decent players with little to no service time. I just think it's farther-fetched than you do; I think you nailed it with that line. I'd definitely take Scott Podsednik's hitting line at SS for the next 5 or 6 seasons for Marcum right now. And I think I'd take Minor for Marcum too, but I haven't watched much of Minor at all.

[Roderick]

I hope that Melvin doesn't give out buyouts to any more older pitchers. Between Suppan, Riske and Wolf (if bought out), that has to total $4-$5 million just to make guys go away.

 

If it makes you feel any better then consider Wolf's contract a $29.75M contract for 3 years instead of a $28.25M contract for 3 years with an option/buyout for the 4th year.

 

I say that because it would have taken more money than a straight $28.25 for 3 years to get Wolf. So Melvin added a 4th year but added the buyout as protection. Buyouts are a piece of the puzzle - not a standalone alacarte option that is added after everything else is agreed upon.

[RockCoCougars]

I say that because it would have taken more money than a straight $28.25 for 3 years to get Wolf.

 

How do we know that? It's not like Wolf was a hot item. As far as I can remember, the only other team that showed any interest in him at the time was the Mets. I'd have been fine with a mutual option with no buyout, but I can't believe that the option year and the buyout would have been a deal breaker. Same with Suppan. Did they really need to add that 5th year buyout for him?

 

Now I'm not panning the Wolf signing by any means, because it actually worked out much better than I expected. I thought that it may turn out to be a disaster and I was wrong. That said, the Brewers need to be cautious about giving long term deals to guys who are not in huge demand (especially with their previous teams). They need to start signing guys who other teams are interested in as well (cough... Greinke).

[logan82]

Wolf was the second best starting pitcher on the market that year.

[3and2Fastball]

The top free agent pitchers to be are, in order of most valued, in my opinion):

 

Cole Hamels (likely traded at deadline)

Greinke (who knows yet)

Ryan Dempster (injured but if healthy will be traded)

James Shields (won't be dealt at the deadline)

Brandon McCarthy (likely dealt at deadline)

Kyle Lohse (won't be dealt at the deadline)

Jake Peavey (likely dealt at the deadline)

Marcum

Gavin Floyd (likely dealt at deadline)

Anibal Sanchez (likely dealt at deadline)

Ervin Santana (won't be traded)

Edwin Jackson (won't be traded)

Derek Lowe (likely not traded, but maybe)

Erik Bedard (will the Pirates be buyers & not sellers? Wow)

Joe Blanton (likely traded)

Jeremy Guthrie (likely traded)

Carl Pavano (likely traded)

Brett Myers (likely traded)

Brandon League (likely traded)

 

So, the Brewers should be able to get something for Marcum, but there will be better pitchers or arguably just as good pitchers available at the deadline. And then there is the injury concern with Marcum

 

Myers & League are interesting, as closers likely dealt, their availability via trade will drive down the market for K-Rod a bit

[paul253]

The White Sox are only a game and a half behind Cleveland for first place. If they are still close I don't see why they'd trade Peavy and Floyd.

[Oldcity]

That list sure makes it seem like more starters will be traded this year than normal. That probably deflates the market a bit for someone like Marcum, who is comparable to a lot of those guys.

[adambr2]

There is absolutely no reason not to trade K-Rod by the deadline. He won't be back and won't bring compensation anyway. At best you can get a "maybe" prospect for him, at worst you can get a few million dollars in payroll relief.

 

Trading Ramirez depends on the direction of the team. If you think we can somehow contend next year, sure, keep him around. If not, you better deal him while you can.

 

Greinke is obvious, but I hope the ship hasn't sailed on getting something worth more than a comp pick for him.

 

Other than those three, there's frankly not very much that you could consider to be somebody we would want to part with while also being somebody that would be a worthwhile for trade value. No one is going to give us anything of value for Wolf, Ransom, Kottaras, Ishikawa, Morgan, etc.

[paul253]

I'd actually like to see the Brewers make a plan. A long term, sustained success plan. It seems like Melvin plays to "win now" every year and that is why guys like Gamel, Green and Schafer don't get the chances they've earned. My idea is for them to shoot for 2014 as the starting point. That means trading Greinke, KRod, Ramirez, and Hart. I'd include Marcum but because of his injury I don't think you can get anything for him. This is what I'd like to see.

 

Trade Corey Hart to Pittsburgh for Starlin Marte and Luis Heredia. Not sure if Heredia is available but he is a long ways away so I can't imagine Pittsburgh would be too insistent on keeping him, especially for a player they can keep through 2013. Marte is most often mentioned as trade bait and could immediately compete for a starting position in 2013.

 

Trade Ramirez to LAD for Lee and Gould. Two more arms in the system and frees up a bunch of money.

 

Trade Greinke to Texas for Mike Olt. At this point I'm willing to take a straight up deal for Olt.

 

Trade KRod for the best relief prospect you can get. Honestly I have no idea who this will be.

 

Trade Kottaras for the best relief prospect you can get. Not expecting much here but Kottaras is expendable.

 

Then allow Marcum, Wolf and Morgan to leave after this year freeing up more money. Ditto for Gomez depending on how much he will cost.

 

The 2013 team may be a little young and I wouldn't expect much but the good news is that there would be a lot of upside.

 

Hopefully by 2014 you have a rotation including Gallardo, Peralta, Thornburg, and Fiers and a solid, young core consisting of Lucroy, Braun, Marte, Olt, Schafer, Gennett, and Gamel. Green would be a nice utility guy. Obviously a long term answer at SS is needed. Khris Davis, Hunter Morris and Caleb Gindl could figure in there somewhere as well. And we'd still have pitching prospects like Jungmann, Bradley, Gagnon, Lee, Gould, Nelson, Burgos and Heredia. Supplement all of this with a couple of free agents and you might have the beginning of some sustained success due to the cheap homegrown players and the ability to complement them with free agents.

[Jaylyn]

Agree 100% paul. I would speculate that would contend in 2013 with those changes.

[endaround]

Contend? That team is bad. It would have to seriously play over its head.

[brettac1]

I have yet to make me think that Scooter Gennett is a core player, or even a big league regular.

[paul253]

Contend? That team is bad. It would have to seriously play over its head.

Depending on what they do with their money and how much they can improve their bullpen it wouldn't be that bad. I mean, not playoff caliber but it's not like they would lose 100 games. Plus, a lot would depend on who reaches their potential and who doesn't. If Green, Gamel, Schafer and Marte all struggle it will be a long year. But if they all play average ball it won't be that bad. They'll still have Weeks, Braun, Aoki, Lucroy, Axford, and Gallardo.

 

I have yet to make me think that Scooter Gennett is a core player, or even a big league regular.

 

The guy led his league in hits last year and is third in his league right now. He hit .309 in Wisconsin, .300 in BC and is currently hitting .291 in AA having just turned 22. And while his defense may not be gold glove caliber quite honestly if Rickie Weeks can turn into an average fielder there is hope for just anyone. So really, what makes you think he can't be a major league regular?

[ELCABALLO45]

Matt Garza is missing from that list

[brettac1]

Contend? That team is bad. It would have to seriously play over its head.

Depending on what they do with their money and how much they can improve their bullpen it wouldn't be that bad. I mean, not playoff caliber but it's not like they would lose 100 games. Plus, a lot would depend on who reaches their potential and who doesn't. If Green, Gamel, Schafer and Marte all struggle it will be a long year. But if they all play average ball it won't be that bad. They'll still have Weeks, Braun, Aoki, Lucroy, Axford, and Gallardo.

 

I have yet to make me think that Scooter Gennett is a core player, or even a big league regular.

 

The guy led his league in hits last year and is third in his league right now. He hit .309 in Wisconsin, .300 in BC and is currently hitting .291 in AA having just turned 22. And while his defense may not be gold glove caliber quite honestly if Rickie Weeks can turn into an average fielder there is hope for just anyone. So really, what makes you think he can't be a major league regular?

The lack of walks and hitting the ball hard.