If we sell, what are the pieces to sell?

[nate82]

After relooking at the Angels system again I am really liking Kaleb Cowart. He is a switch hitting and a very good defensive 3B. He hasn't hit all that well right now but he is only 20 in A+ right now. I am also liking C.J. Cron from the Angels it is just to bad that the Angels don't need some OF help. Their OF is already crowded with Bourjos, Trout, Hunter, and even Trumbo. I would really like to trade Hart to the Angels for one of Cowart/Cron and Nick Maronde. Not a trade that would help next season but it would deepen the Brewers minor league system by a lot.

 

The Giants look to be another team that may need some OF help. I assume the Giants would want some more pop in their lineup and I think Hart would be the perfect fit there. I like Tommy Joseph and that is about it from the Giants. The Giants don't have much in terms of prospects but a Melvin move might be getting someone like Belt and a few other guys for Hart from the Giants. I would rather get Tommy Joseph as I think he has more potential and power in his bat than Belt does and he is more athletically gifted than Belt is. The only question here with Tommy Joseph is what position would the Brewers play him at. He is a fairly good defensive catcher and he could be moved over to 3B as he is rather athletic.

 

After looking at the Rangers I think I might prefer an Olt, Neil Ramirez, and Roman Mendez would be a nice haul for a Greinke trade though I think that maybe too much. I wonder if the Rangers would give up Profar or Perez plus some B/C+ type prospects to get Gallardo? Looking back at the Jimenez trade I would expect something similar or just a little bit more for a Gallardo trade. I am not sure the Rangers will give up what it would take and even with the trade I proposed above I am not sure I would take that maybe Perez and Olt as the centerpiece for a trade for Gallardo and I would seriously look at doing that. That trade would set the Brewers up to make a run around 2014-16. With Perez being in the rotation in 2013 at some point and then Thornburg and Perez in the rotation in 2014 with Peralta, Jungmann, Bradley, and others joining them in 2015 or 2016.

[Oldcity]

Cron was "my guy" in last year's draft. Getting him would be just fine with me. He was drafted out of college, so he's hopefully not too far away. Maybe a couple years.

[nate82]

Cron was "my guy" in last year's draft. Getting him would be just fine with me. He was drafted out of college, so he's hopefully not too far away. Maybe a couple years.

 

If he wouldn't have gotten injured late in the season last year he would be only a year or two away. Cron has some very nice power and looks to be trapped with the Angels as both DH and 1B will be occupied by Pujols, Trumbo, or Morales. I think Cron will be available for a team in a trade and like I posted earlier Cowart would be a very good upgrade for the Brewers at a position of need. After the Ramirez contract would be over Cowart would be ready if not sooner to take over at 3B.

[ListachRides]

Didn't see this posted anywhere. From CBSSports via MLB Trade Rumors:

 

The Brewers are simultaneously preparing for the possibility of becoming sellers and suggesting they could become buyers. They’ve told their scouts to identify prospects to target in the farm systems of contending teams, yet they won’t necessarily sell. They remain interested in keeping Zack Greinke, whose contract expires after the season.

 

I was worried they'd be too stubborn about selling, so I consider it a good sign that they're at least preparing for the possibility.

[paul253]

I was worried they'd be too stubborn about selling, so I consider it a good sign that they're at least preparing for the possibility

 

And I am glad that they are looking at prospects and not expensive vets 2 years away from free agency.

[Invader3K]

Agreed. It sounds like they are at least doing some groundwork planning, and that is good to hear. Maybe Melvin isn't the lazy and delusional GM some seem to make him out to be around here.

[paul253]

Maybe Melvin isn't the lazy and delusional GM some seem to make him out to be around here.

 

I don't think it's that people think he is lazy or delusional, it just seems like almost all of his trades have been about improving the team immediately, even if he could have maybe gotten higher ceiling prospects instead. Yeah they've got the occasional prospect (De La Rosa, Zach Jackson, Capellan) but two of those three also included major league talent. He doesn't seem to like trading major league talent (especially talent that should net a decent return) for only prospects.

[LouisEly]

I'd like to see Greinke moved at the all star break. A rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Fiers, Estrada and Marcum would be painful .

 

Not really. Gallardo and Marcum would combine to be at least an average #1/#2 combo, Wolf would be a below average #3 (an average #3 if he could return close to last year's form), and Fiers and Estrada are above-average #4/#5 starters. If you want to accept Fiers small sample so far as an average, I'd argue that Fiers is an average #3, Wolf an average #4, and Estrada an above-average #5. I think your point is that with the Brewers offense so far that wouldn't hold up, but if the Brewers offense returns to what they should be doing that staff would not be painful at all.

[Oldcity]

Fiers is nowhere near an average number three. No offense, but I don't think you'd find anyone who'd agree with that. He's never broken into the big leagues until age 26 for a reason. We don't even know if he's a viable long-term MLB starting-caliber pitcher.

[adambr2]

I'd like to see Greinke moved at the all star break. A rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Fiers, Estrada and Marcum would be painful .

 

Not really. Gallardo and Marcum would combine to be at least an average #1/#2 combo, Wolf would be a below average #3 (an average #3 if he could return close to last year's form), and Fiers and Estrada are above-average #4/#5 starters. If you want to accept Fiers small sample so far as an average, I'd argue that Fiers is an average #3, Wolf an average #4, and Estrada an above-average #5. I think your point is that with the Brewers offense so far that wouldn't hold up, but if the Brewers offense returns to what they should be doing that staff would not be painful at all.

 

Gallardo/Marcum as an "average #1/#2 combo" is very generous this year. I think that underestimates the #1/#2 that most teams have. Gallardo is a low-end #1 at his best, and probably more of a #2 this year, and Marcum is more like a low #2/high #3.

 

Wolf's numbers this year resemble more of a #5 than a #3, although I agree he could improve and be a #3 at his best. Narveson was a high end #5, Estrada is more average. At this point, Fiers probably has a shot to be a career #5. A small handful of decent starts doesn't change that.

 

Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Fiers/Estrada isn't a historically bad rotation, but it's probably no better than 2010.

[trwi7]

If we're trading guys this year, it means we aren't in contention so why do we care what our rotation would look like for the rest of 2012?

[clancyphile]

I'd say move Wolf, K-Rod and Marcum, see what we can get. Just punt on 2012, look for a shortstop in the off-season, and figure out what to do with A-Ram.

[DHonks]

clancy, what's wrong with Ramirez? His last month has been very good, and his overall numbers are fine. I'd like a few more homers, but won't complain

[Baldkin]

clancy, what's wrong with Ramirez? His last month has been very good, and his overall numbers are fine. I'd like a few more homers, but won't complain

 

Owed 30 million over the next 2 years (including his buyout). That's what's wrong with him. Odds of him outplaying that contract are slim to none.

[adambr2]

I'm just wondering if anyone feels that we can actually get anything of value for Wolf and K-Rod. I'm not sure we can. Wolf is a soft-tossing vet who still has an ERA over 5.00 in the rotation near the end of June. Both are overpriced for their production level. Even though it was a little different situation, we gave up nothing of value to get K-Rod, who was pitching better at the time. We might be able to get something for K-Rod, but he isn't worth a top prospect to anyone.

 

Both are also overpriced for their production level.

[danzig6767]

I'm just wondering if anyone feels that we can actually get anything of value for Wolf and K-Rod. I'm not sure we can. Wolf is a soft-tossing vet who still has an ERA over 5.00 in the rotation near the end of June. Both are overpriced for their production level. Even though it was a little different situation, we gave up nothing of value to get K-Rod, who was pitching better at the time. We might be able to get something for K-Rod, but he isn't worth a top prospect to anyone.

 

Both are also overpriced for their production level.

 

Just getting someone to take on their contracts for the rest of the season is probably the best case scenario for the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

My biggest Worry about Fiers is that he not really a Grounball Pitchers and might need to pitch in Putchers park to suceed.

[Dollarbill13]

Owed 30 million over the next 2 years (including his buyout). That's what's wrong with him. Odds of him outplaying that contract are slim to none.

 

Using a rough estimate of $5M per win, he'd need to produce a WAR of 6 over the next two years combined to match the $30M. Not out of the question at all. Even if he's only a 2 win player over the next two years, his contract will be worth it.

[Invader3K]

Hmmm...

 

 

"Brewers people telling other teams that decision on sell/not sell will rest totally with owner. They think Greinke least likely to be moved."

[monty57]

Brewers people telling other teams that decision on sell/not sell will rest totally with owner. They think Greinke least likely to be moved

 

So they'll trade everyone who will bring nothing back in return but will absolutely crush any remote chance they still have of making the playoffs, but they'll hold on to the one piece* which could have any chance to bring back a return that could make us respectable in the coming years.

 

*If Marcum's not hurt badly, he could bring back a good return or get picks, but if he needs Tommy John, we'll get nothing for him.

 

Also, by "least likely" I'd assume they mean "least likely of all the players who will be free agents at season's end."

[TooLiveBrew]

Brewers people telling other teams that decision on sell/not sell will rest totally with owner. They think Greinke least likely to be moved

...

Also, by "least likely" I'd assume they mean "least likely of all the players who will be free agents at season's end."

It could also be GM-speak for "bring a legit offer or don't even bother"

 

I find it insanely hard to believe that, if the Brewers wind up selling, that they'd have some moronic & arbitrary rule about not dealing their most valuable realistically-tradeable chip.

 

But I do have to say, my first reaction on reading that quip was basically summed up in your post. I've just taken some more time to try & digest that snippet... and perhaps am talking nonsense to calm down my panic

[adambr2]

Brewers people telling other teams that decision on sell/not sell will rest totally with owner. They think Greinke least likely to be moved

...

Also, by "least likely" I'd assume they mean "least likely of all the players who will be free agents at season's end."

It could also be GM-speak for "bring a legit offer or don't even bother"

 

I find it insanely hard to believe that, if the Brewers wind up selling, that they'd have some moronic & arbitrary rule about not dealing their most valuable realistically-tradeable chip.

 

But I do have to say, my first reaction on reading that quip was basically summed up in your post. I've just taken some more time to try & digest that snippet... and perhaps am talking nonsense to calm down my panic

 

 

I agree, I think it has to be GM posturing. I can't fathom that we would be sellers and NOT sell Greinke. There is no logic behind that.

 

I also don't buy the argument that trading Greinke is going to prevent us from signing him in the offseason. I don't see that making a difference. People often try to make free agency more political than it really is. Most of the time, it's not. If he becomes a free agent, and I think at this point it's almost certain that he will, he will probably take the best and biggest offer his agent gets, just like 95% of other free agents.

 

If that team is us, he'll be back, regardless of whether or not we trade him mid-season or not. If not, he'll be going elsewhere anyway. He's not going to leave millions of dollars on the table to play for a quieter city because of an overblown anxiety issue.

[JosephC]

I don't think it's that people think he is lazy or delusional, it just seems like almost all of his trades have been about improving the team immediately, even if he could have maybe gotten higher ceiling prospects instead. Yeah they've got the occasional prospect (De La Rosa, Zach Jackson, Capellan) but two of those three also included major league talent. He doesn't seem to like trading major league talent (especially talent that should net a decent return) for only prospects.

 

That's a good observation. I'm not convinced that if Greinke (and/or Marcum) is traded that the Brewers will be looking for A or AA ball prospects, regardless of their ceilings. The rotation is looking like a complete mess for next year. The Brewers do not control Greinke or Marcum. If Wolf keeps pitching like he has so far over the course of the season, there is no way the Brewers can pick up his option for next year. Who knows what shape Narveson's shoulder will be in, if anything you'd have to consider 2013 a rehab-type year for him. The top minor league option heading into this year (Peralta) is having a bad year and if you want to pencil him into the major league rotation for next year you probably cannot count on him being anything more than a #5. If Greinke and Marcum both leave, how does the 2013 rotation currently stack up? Gallardo, Estrada, Thornburg, Fiers, Peralta? Free agency? For starters the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs (and others) will be heavily involved in looking at free agent starting pitchers. I don't see the Brewers having much of a chance to add much quality when they'll have to bid against the big boys.

 

Because of that I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin passes on higher-rated prospects playing in the lower levels and trades for major league pitchers or starter prospects that are so advanced that they figure to stick in a major league rotation in 2013. Not the approach I would take, but I think there is a good chance the Brewers will prefer this strategy. If they don't trade for MLB pitching or nearly-guaranteed MLB pitching it will almost be like they've given up on any chance of winning in 2013, which would be totally out of character for Attanasio.

[brewmann04]

I think Wolf last 3 starts should have been wins and they might just pick up his Option.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd like to see Axford traded in the offseason. Not based off of his sucking lately but off of last season. He's cheap and controlled for a while and could net a decide return.