If we sell, what are the pieces to sell?

[trwi7]

In regards to ticket sales, they drew 28,000 to a Cubs game on a nice day in June. People don't want to watch this team.

[RockCoCougars]

As I've said before, I don't think that there are any dominant teams in the N.L.. Of the two primary concerns to the Brewers, St. Louis is falling apart, and Cincinnati was handled by Pittsburgh last night worse than the Brewers were over the weekend. It follows that I think that this selling talk is a bit premature, because there is a lot of baseball left to play. I also don't get the concept of selling in every season that you don't make the playoffs. Yes, there are free agents to be, but outside of Greinke and Marcum, they will have little value on the market. I also don't buy the talk that Greinke is as good as gone because the Brewers are not a lock to be competitive. Bottom line, money talks with these players, so the Brewers had better prepare a big offer for him unless they want to start a rebuild.

 

Frankly, for all the 'sellers', I ask why not look into dealing Gallardo and/or Braun? They would bring more on the market than Greinke. I also don't agree with the argument that trading Greinke does not equal a rebuild. You say that this team is not good enough to compete this year as it stands, but you think that it will be next year minus Greinke? Please explain.

[trwi7]

Cincinnati was handled by Pittsburgh last night worse than the Brewers were over the weekend.

 

First game of the series the Brewers lost 8-2. First game of the series the Reds lost 8-4. What's your definition of worse?

 

Frankly, for all the 'sellers', I ask why not look into dealing Gallardo and/or Braun?

 

Speaking for myself, if I was the GM of the team I would let every other GM know that no player on my team is untouchable. Just making a point here but if Washington offers me Strasburg, Zimmermann and Harper for Braun. Sorry Braun, I love ya, but have fun in Washington.

 

If the Giants offer me Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey for Gallardo. Have fun in San Francisco, Yo.

[RockCoCougars]

First game of the series the Brewers lost 8-2. First game of the series the Reds lost 8-4. What's your definition of worse?

 

Good point, but the Reds were buried early and shut down by A.J. Burnett. That's pretty bad.

 

As for the Brewers, I'm long past the point of expecting them to do anything against Dempster. I have tonight penciled in as a win, and I'm hoping that they can step it up against Garza tomorrow (if they don't get Wolfed). With San Diego coming to town over the weekend, I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet.

[Oldcity]

I'm not saying they shouldn't sell, I'm just saying they won't make any trades that give up on the season before July.

 

I'm not even saying definitively that they shouldn't, but that they won't within the next few weeks.. All Attanasio talks about is how he's not giving up, how he seems them as contenders, etc etc. He wants to keep attendance high as long as possible. I sure hope common sense wins out eventually if they keep stinking, but I'm not totally convinced it will.

 

But yeah, in a weak division, there really isn't any reason to give up yet, even with as poorly as they played. Baseball Prospectus still gives them over a 22% chance to reach the playoffs. Trades will still be there in a month; no need to rush.

[monty57]

As I've said before, I don't think that there are any dominant teams in the N.L.. Of the two primary concerns to the Brewers, St. Louis is falling apart, and Cincinnati was handled by Pittsburgh last night worse than the Brewers were over the weekend.

 

For the Brewers to win the division, they will need to outplay all of: Cincinnati by 7 games, Pittsburgh by 5 games, St Louis by four games, and Houston straight up for the remainder of the season. If none of them plays better than .500 for the rest of the year, we will still need 85 wins to take the division, so we'd need to go 61-46 (a .570 win percentage). It will probably take more like 88-90 wins to make the playoffs, even with the second wild card game. It's not impossible that it could happen, but it's getting more and more unlikely. As your example shows, even if one of the teams falters, another wins (Pittsburgh beating the Brewers and Reds). We'd basically have to play the final 2/3 of the season at the pace the Rangers have played the first 1/3 of the season while hoping none of the Reds, Pirates, Cardinals or Astros play much better than .500.

 

It follows that I think that this selling talk is a bit premature, because there is a lot of baseball left to play.

 

I doubt the Brewers will sell early, because they don't want fans to feel they've "given up." However, they will get a better return by sellig early. Melvin knows this, as he bought early when he traded for Sabathia, and made the exact same arguement I'm currently making that teams pay more for an extra few starts from a pitcher. I'm just saying that as the odds of playoffs get more remote, they might want to maximize their return.

 

I also don't get the concept of selling in every season that you don't make the playoffs.

 

If it's obvious you're not going to make the playoffs, you should do what's best for the franchise. That doesn't mean you sell every season, just that you sell when it makes sense. It's starting to look like selling in 2012 makes a lot of sense.

 

Yes, there are free agents to be, but outside of Greinke and Marcum, they will have little value on the market.

 

Greinke and Marcum themselves should bring back quite a bit of talent from a playoff-hopeful team which could help us a lot in the future. As to the rest, "little" is better than "none," which is what we'll get if we hold onto them and let them walk as free agents. K-Rod may bring back a decent prospect if a team (like the Yankees and Red Sox) have playoff hopes and injured closers. Even if he only brings back salary relief and a high-upside A-baller, that's money we can spend this offseason and a prospect we wouldn't have if he walks.

 

I also don't buy the talk that Greinke is as good as gone because the Brewers are not a lock to be competitive. Bottom line, money talks with these players, so the Brewers had better prepare a big offer for him unless they want to start a rebuild.

 

I agree, but at this point there is no reason for him to give us any kind of a discount, so we will be paying him free agent money regardless. We might as well trade him for some good, young talent and if we want to pursue him on the free agent market, do it. I think his eventual salary is going to be the reason he won't be a Brewer, not his desire to play for a competitor.

 

Frankly, for all the 'sellers', I ask why not look into dealing Gallardo and/or Braun?

 

I like to hold onto a core and build around them with talented young players and occasionally with a free agent signing. This keeps our playoff hopes at least alive while maintaining fiscal discipline. Gallardo and Braun are both signed to not-too-expensive deals for a number of years, so they are the heart of our "core." If we were blown away (i.e. if someone gives us two or three top prospects for Gallardo), then we should look into it, but I wouldn't openly shop the "core" players.

 

I also don't agree with the argument that trading Greinke does not equal a rebuild. You say that this team is not good enough to compete this year as it stands, but you think that it will be next year minus Greinke? Please explain.

 

There are a lot of moving parts in baseball. Players get injured, a ".300 hitter" hits .280 some years and .320 others, balls "bounce the right way," etc. This year everything has gone wrong. We've had significant injuries, Weeks and Ramirez have forgotten how to hit, our pitching has been worse than expected, and so on. Coming into this year, we had playoff hopes, but with everything that's happened, those hopes are dwindling.

 

As to next year's team, I have said that I don't think Gallardo + Greinke is that much better on a year-to-year basis than Gallardo + Marcum. The first pair gets us maybe an extra win or two a year for a significantly higher cost. If we had extended Marcum for a much lower price (in $ and years) than Greinke, I thought we could go into next year with a team which could at least be as competitive as it would have been if we'd "broke the bank" to sign Greinke. Now I think the "window" to extend Marcum is pretty much gone, so we could very well lose both Greinke and Marcum.

 

If we lose both Marcum and Greinke, don't exercise Wolf's option, and Narveson can't pitch, we are going to have a big uphill battle. But that doesn't change the fact that we sat down at the table with Greinke and after Cain signed he got up and walked away from the table. He's going to test the free agent market, and at this point that makes a lot of sense for him. That's where things stand. The way to "ease the pain" somewhat is to get something back for the players who are going to leave anyway, which includes Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, K-Rod, Loe, and Veras. We may not be a playoff team next year regardless of what we do, but we will 100% certainly be better if we get something in return for these guys than we will be if we don't. We can always try to sign Greinke or Marcum as free agents, whether we trade them or not.

 

*When I say "he's going to test the free agent market," here's why I think that. If the Brewers tell him tomorrow they'll match or even beat Cain's contract, he weighs the risk and thinks "all I have to do is pitch 15-20 more games and then I can use the Brewers' offer as a starting point in talking with other teams." His potential risk is not that great compared to the potential upside of hitting the free agent market. When a player has multiple years before hitting free agency, the risk is great. When that's down to half a season, it makes sense to just take the risk.

[RockCoCougars]

*When I say "he's going to test the free agent market," here's why I think that. If the Brewers tell him tomorrow they'll match or even beat Cain's contract, he weighs the risk and thinks "all I have to do is pitch 15-20 more games and then I can use the Brewers' offer as a starting point in talking with other teams." His potential risk is not that great compared to the potential upside of hitting the free agent market. When a player has multiple years before hitting free agency, the risk is great. When that's down to half a season, it makes sense to just take the risk.

 

First of all, thanks for the response. I still disagree on the sell now thing, but you made a lot of solid points.

 

As for the above, sadly this is the case. The Brewers had a good window to get a deal done, and let it pass for whatever reason. On the rebound from Prince... as opposed to signing Ramirez, they would have been better off offering Greinke a big extension deal last December.

[adambr2]

*When I say "he's going to test the free agent market," here's why I think that. If the Brewers tell him tomorrow they'll match or even beat Cain's contract, he weighs the risk and thinks "all I have to do is pitch 15-20 more games and then I can use the Brewers' offer as a starting point in talking with other teams." His potential risk is not that great compared to the potential upside of hitting the free agent market. When a player has multiple years before hitting free agency, the risk is great. When that's down to half a season, it makes sense to just take the risk.

 

First of all, thanks for the response. I still disagree on the sell now thing, but you made a lot of solid points.

 

As for the above, sadly this is the case. The Brewers had a good window to get a deal done, and let it pass for whatever reason. On the rebound from Prince... as opposed to signing Ramirez, they would have been better off offering Greinke a big extension deal last December.

 

Unfortunately, -- and I know this is going to come off as very critical of Doug and Mark A, but I feel like they almost tunnel vision where they are unable to see more and ask more than what they can do to win this NEXT season. The Ramirez signing was a clear indication of that. They rarely look more than 2 years ahead, and it's really going to come back to bite them this offseason.

[Oldcity]

It would be awesome if they could get someone to take the A-Ram contract for nothing, but I'm guessing they'd even have to pay some of it. And I'm sure they wouldn't do that anyway.

[adamds22]

As to next year's team, I have said that I don't think Gallardo + Greinke is that much better on a year-to-year basis than Gallardo + Marcum. The first pair gets us maybe an extra win or two a year for a significantly higher cost. If we had extended Marcum for a much lower price (in $ and years) than Greinke, I thought we could go into next year with a team which could at least be as competitive as it would have been if we'd "broke the bank" to sign Greinke. Now I think the "window" to extend Marcum is pretty much gone, so we could very well lose both Greinke and Marcum.

 

The only argument I have against this comment is sure Gallardo + Greinke probably only equals a couple extra wins throughout a season over Gallardo + Marcum, our ultimate goal shouldn't be to simply MAKE the playoffs, it should be a WS. When it comes to playoff time a 1/2 of Gallardo/Greinke is significantly better than a 1/2 of Gallardo/Marcum when you consider they will be squaring off vs the 1/2 of the likes of the Nationals, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers etc.

[3and2Fastball]

MLB Network was speculating that the Brewers might trade Marcum if things don't get turned around soon...

[TooLiveBrew]

Unfortunately, -- and I know this is going to come off as very critical of Doug and Mark A, but I feel like they almost tunnel vision where they are unable to see more and ask more than what they can do to win this NEXT season. The Ramirez signing was a clear indication of that. They rarely look more than 2 years ahead, and it's really going to come back to bite them this offseason.

It may be critical, but I think it's a pretty accurate assessment. Melvin & Attanasio have been building for this season & maybe the next one for long enough now that the crap is about to hit the fan after 2012.

[brewmann04]

I hope the Crew can keep grienke and if that means moving Marcum so be it.

I was curious to see what Marcum could bring in Return .

[Oldcity]

Trading Marcum and re-signing Greinke seems pretty unrealistic to me. Greinke wants to play for a winner. Why would he give any sort of discount (which is the Brewers' only hope of signing him) if they're selling off other players?

 

I don't see how they could sell anyone and not trade Greinke.

[cvollbrecht]

Trading Marcum and re-signing Greinke seems pretty unrealistic to me. Greinke wants to play for a winner. Why would he give any sort of discount (which is the Brewers' only hope of signing him) if they're selling off other players?

 

I don't see how they could sell anyone and not trade Greinke.

 

 

He also seems to be very interested in the behind the scenes aspect of baseball and the Brewers are giving him the opportunity to explore that. He has had nothing but good things to say about the team/town/owner, and we all know it't not like Greinke to sugar coat anything. If it is selling off a few pieces and getting back MLB-ready talent, then I could see him recognizing the vision that Melvin and Attanasio are taking.

[Raw Biz]

Trading Marcum and re-signing Greinke seems pretty unrealistic to me. Greinke wants to play for a winner. Why would he give any sort of discount (which is the Brewers' only hope of signing him) if they're selling off other players?

 

I don't see how they could sell anyone and not trade Greinke.

 

 

He also seems to be very interested in the behind the scenes aspect of baseball and the Brewers are giving him the opportunity to explore that. He has had nothing but good things to say about the team/town/owner, and we all know it't not like Greinke to sugar coat anything. If it is selling off a few pieces and getting back MLB-ready talent, then I could see him recognizing the vision that Melvin and Attanasio are taking.

 

As I mentioned earlier, I think Greinke understands how winners are built. Tell him that we recognize he wants a chance to play for a winner and we want to give him that chance. We also want to set ourselves up for the future. So we trade him for impact talent this year, improve ourselves for next year (and the coming years) and make a run at him in the offseason. Keep Marcum, offer him arby (or whatever its called), if he accepts, great another year of a pretty good pitcher, if he doesn't, great high draft picks.

[Oldcity]

Why would a team give up Major League ready talent for Marcum? Wouldn't they just use said Major League talent?

[paul253]

Milwaukee can still be a "winner" next year but they need to play it smart. They will have an excess of major league ready outfielders (Braun, Morgan, Gomez, Hart, Aoki) and a shortage of pitching so it would make sense to trade an outfielder for a pitcher. Trading Hart would probably bring back the most but I'd be willing to bet my house than Melvin won't trade him. This is why some people have frustrations with Melvin refusing to look more than a year down the road. It's why Ramirez is our third basemen right now instead of Green. It's why Corey Hart was re-signed instead of being traded to Atlanta who really wanted him a few years ago (Am I remembering correctly that they offered us Beachy for him?). It's why we cannot find an adequate, long term solution for shortstop.

 

It's ok to miss the playoffs but if we are going to I'd like at the very least to see us making moves that will improve the future of the team. Keeping KRod, Marcum, and Greinke so we can finish 5 games out of first instead of 8 games makes no sense to me when trading them could bring you very valuable pieces in return. Similarly, trading them for guys who will be free agents in two years as opposed to prospects you control for 6 years would be foolish. Greinke is, dare I say it, having a Cy Young type season so far (looking like he's about to go to 7-2 with an ERA around 3). Just because he will be a free agent next doesn't mean we won't get anything for him. Without playing Monday Morning Quarterback look at what we gave up for Sabathia. LaPorta was our top prospect at the time and he was mashing in the minors. And I really didn't want to give up Brantley (and don't forget Cleveland could have taken Green, Lucroy or Cain instead of Brantley). Then two pitchers on top of it. We'll get someone good for Greinke and should be able to get something good for Marcum. So if we get the sense that we aren't going to keep Greinke and are still behind 3 teams in our own division come all star break, what good does it do to keep these guys?

[endaround]

Milwaukee can still be a "winner" next year but they need to play it smart. They will have an excess of major league ready outfielders (Braun, Morgan, Gomez, Hart, Aoki) and a shortage of pitching so it would make sense to trade an outfielder for a pitcher. Trading Hart would probably bring back the most but I'd be willing to bet my house than Melvin won't trade him. This is why some people have frustrations with Melvin refusing to look more than a year down the road. It's why Ramirez is our third basemen right now instead of Green. It's why Corey Hart was re-signed instead of being traded to Atlanta who really wanted him a few years ago (Am I remembering correctly that they offered us Beachy for him?). It's why we cannot find an adequate, long term solution for shortstop.

 

Teams need 5 OFers, the Brewers have 5 OFers. That is not an excess.

[Oldcity]

I suppose you could add Schafer and Gindl to that last, depending on how the rest of their seasons go.

[paul253]

Teams need 5 OFers, the Brewers have 5 OFers. That is not an excess.

 

But they don't necessarily need 5 that can be considered every day players. And I didn't mention the guys in AAA that could conceivably be ready at some point next year too in Schafer, Gindl and/or Khris Davis. If you have a guy on the bench (Aoki) that can play just as well, if not better than the guy ahead of him on the depth chart (Morgan) what is the point in keeping Morgan?

[monty57]

Why would a team give up Major League ready talent for Marcum? Wouldn't they just use said Major League talent?

 

Everyone says Greinke is pitching like a Cy Young candidate this year. Here's his line: 12 games, 7W-2L, 3.13 ERA, 72 IP, 72 H, 25 ER, 18 BB, 81 K, .261 OBA, 1.25 WHIP, 128 ERA+. Pretty impressive, so we should be able to get some good prospects for him, right?

 

So where does Marcum stand? Here's his line: 11 games, 4W-3L, 3.39 ERA, 69 IP, 60 H, 26 ER, 21 BB, 66 K, .232 OBA, 1.17 WHIP, 118 ERA+. So he's pitched one less game, but only 3 less innings so he's pitching more innings per game. He's only given up one more run than Greinke, but given up less hits, and has a better OBA and WHIP. Like Greinke, he's pitched really well this year.

 

So lets look at how they've compared in recent history. Marcum was injured in 2009, when Greinke had his Cy Young year.

 

2010 Marcum: 31 games, 13-8, 3.64 ERA, 195.1 IP, 181 H, 79 ER, 43 BB, 165 K, 1.147 WHIP, 115 ERA+, 3.8 WAR (Baseball-reference.com)

2010 Greinke: 33 games, 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 220 IP, 219 H, 102 ER, 55 BB, 181 K, 1.245 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 3.2 WAR

 

2011 Marcum: 33 games, 13-7, 3.54 ERA, 200.2 IP, 175 H, 79 ER, 57 BB, 158 K, 1.156 WHIP, 111 ERA+, 2.9 WAR

2011 Greinke: 28 games, 16-6, 3.83 ERA, 171.2 IP, 161 H, 73 ER, 45 BB, 201 K, 1.200 WHIP, 103 ERA+, 1.4 WAR

 

So basically, Geinke had an unbelievable year in 2009 while Marcum was injured. Since then, Marcum has been a better pitcher. I wish we had used the bad few weeks he had at the end of last year to sign him to a cheap 2 or 3 year extension, but we didn't and now he's pitching himself into a really nice free agent contract. He would certainly be a valuable pick-up for any team that has playoff aspirations.

[Oldcity]

My point is, if teams have Major League-ready talent, they won't trade it for a deadline player--they'll just use those players.

 

Comparing the stats of Marcum and Greinke is beside the point. Who has higher trade value? Clearly that will be Greinke.

[monty57]

My point is, if teams have Major League-ready talent, they won't trade it for a deadline player--they'll just use those players.

 

Comparing the stats of Marcum and Greinke is beside the point. Who has higher trade value? Clearly that will be Greinke.

 

I guess it depends on the definition of Major League-ready. If you take it to mean a young player who has already gotten his feet wet and is pitching well then yes the team will go with them. If you take it to mean a guy in AAA who is probably ready to pitch in the majors, but has never been tested, then the team may rather have a "proven" guy to get them to the playoffs.

 

Using Atlanta as an example, Beachy is Major League ready in the former sense. He's young, but he's proven to be really good at getting MLB hitters out. There is no way Altanta would trade Beachy. However, Delgado, Minor and Teheran are Major League-ready in the latter sense. They're talented, but have not yet proven themselves at the MLB level. With the way Minor has pitched so far this season, if the Braves are shooting for the playoffs, they may be filled with enough urgency that they would trade the talented young Minor for a proven vet. That's just an example, and I don't want to steer this to an "is Marcum going to get us Minor" thread.

 

Turn this around and ask: If the season had gone differently and the Brewers were healthy and in 1st place and a SP went down, would Melvin/Attanasio call up Peralta or Fiers, or would they go out and trade for a veteran? If a proven ace were on the market in that situation, would we trade Peralta to get him, even if its only for three months? I don't know what return to expect for Greinke or Marcum, but I'd bet we could get a decent prospect back... especially if the trade happens in June rather than late July.

 

As to my comparing the stats, I guess I'm just frustrated with posts (not yours) that treat Greinke like a savior without whom we're a perpetual bottom feeder, while Marcum is treated like dirt. Marcum is almost as good a pitcher as Greinke, and if the market treats Greinke as a far superior player, then we should trade Greinke and sign Marcum to a cheap deal. If any GM takes the time to look at the numbers Marcum has put up since his surgery, they will jump at the chance to get him for a playoff push.

[RockCoCougars]

As to my comparing the stats, I guess I'm just frustrated with posts (not yours) that treat Greinke like a savior without whom we're a perpetual bottom feeder, while Marcum is treated like dirt. Marcum is almost as good a pitcher as Greinke, and if the market treats Greinke as a far superior player, then we should trade Greinke and sign Marcum to a cheap deal. If any GM takes the time to look at the numbers Marcum has put up since his surgery, they will jump at the chance to get him for a playoff push.

 

I'm sure that I've been one of these posters, because I don't think that Marcum and Greinke are that close. You may be able to make a comparison now by throwing out Greinke's best year and a year that Marcum missed with injury, but in two or three years, I'm not so sure. Marcum is older, with a history of major arm surgery and stuff that won't age as well (doesn't miss enough bats).

.

That said, there is no way that Marcum will come cheap. Barring major injury or extended playoff-esque meltdown, he's going to get a three or four year deal for eight figures per, easy. At the same time the market will bear out the fact that Greinke is perceived as a far superior talent, and he's going to get a lot more.