If we sell, what are the pieces to sell?

[JohnBriggs12]

The time to sell off Wolf was last winter. But that would have made them change what was the winter sales pitch: "We may have lost Prince, but we've replaced him with the great Aramis Ramirez and we've upgraded at SS too, and our entire rotation that was so good last year returns intact."

 

How's that working out?

[brettac1]

Sometimes stuff doesn't work out, even when it makes sense.

 

Prince Fielder was never going to be more than a 6 year Brewer the day he was drafted. The end. It's a strawman argument to even bring him up like he was an option to be on the 2012 Brewers. He wasn't.

[nate82]

Greinke has pitched like it's 2009 all over again, he's quickly pricing himself out of the Brewers' means.

 

This is somewhat true. When looking at the off season free agent market I do not see that many teams that are going to be after Greinke. I believe the teams that are going to be in on Greinke are going to be very limited. The teams that I see going after Greinke are the Orioles, Brewers, Dodgers, and the Rangers. Since the Rangers just spent all that money on Darvish I don't see them going out and signing another big contract to a pitcher, I believe if they are going to sign a pitcher it will be someone like Marcum or Dempster that they will go out and sign. The Dodgers are going to go after Hamels first and Greinke will be option B. I believe the Dodgers are going to sign Hamels and that now leaves Greinke with only two teams bidding on him the Orioles and the Brewers. Now Greinke is not going to come at some huge discount but I can still see something like 6-years at $110-115m on the high side to 5-years at $90-105m on the low side.

 

Now the question is should the Brewers do this? I know the Brewers shouldn't do this but Melvin and Mark A. will do this if they can get Greinke at about $16-18m a year. The Brewers would definitely have to shed some payroll to make this work and I can actually see Hart being dealt in the off season along with Gomez, Morgan, Marcum, and Wolf not coming back. The smart move is if the Brewers feel like they can resign Greinke in the off season and the team is not going anywhere right now would be to trade Greinke and get a piece for the future and then go out and try and sign Greinke in the off season.

[3and2Fastball]

The Yankees and Red Sox sure seem like teams that have a lot of money and a huge need for pitching and would go after Greinke & Hamels.

[umphrey]

The only trade piece I see is Greinke, and Gallardo and Hart would probably fetch something decent if we were to make them available.

 

You just don't get much for a guy in a trade unless he is

a) young and under team control, or

b) really, really good

 

I've heard a lot of people say we could trade KRod and if we ate some of his salary we could get a good prospect. It doesn't really make sense, we would just be buying a prospect. That happens sometimes, teams will buy a prospect for cash considerations. Teams only sell off their C level prospects though, I can't think of anyone on a top 100 list getting traded for cash considerations, ever.

 

Greinke could get some value even though his contract expires next year, he would probably get traded with a contract extension. A team with payroll will give up prospects to do that, to get the jump on an elite player.

[adambr2]

I should clarify from my original post that I think everyone is tradeable. Epstein made a good comment about that today, and I think it's completely true -- making a guy "untradeable" does nothing but limit your options. "Untradeable" just means that you would have to be blown away to do it.

 

Braun is "untradeable", but if the Nationals called and offered Zimmermann, Strasburg, and Harper, you'd pull the trigger.

[Oldcity]

If we trade Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod, Hart, and Axford I have to imagine we'd get enough back to prevent the full fledged rebuild.

This is definitely an important point. They'd get an absolute haul of players if all these guys were dealt, and surely some would be MLB ready. It probably wouldn't be more than a year before they'd be trying to contend again. Not too bad of a result if they can't turn it around this month.

[paul253]

This series against the Pirates to me shows the need to sell and start over. They go out and sweep the best team in baseball, on the road no less, then come home and lose 2 of 3 to the Pirates. This is not a playoff team and they are probably going to lose a lot of key players this offseason. I may be willing to hang onto Marcum now, depending on what you get offered for him of course. I think I'd offer him that one year deal to get draft picks for him if we aren't offered much in return for a trade.

 

But I think for sure KRod and Greinke need to be traded. I'd also strongly consider trading Corey Hart due to the presence of Aoki. I'd also throw Axford's name out there to see what we get offered back. If someone offers a pitcher with #1 or #2 potential, I think you have to take it.

[endaround]

They need to sell because the Brewers' #7 starter lost to the Pirates' #1 starter in a one run game with the 2 best hitting Brewer starters out? OK.

[paul253]

They need to sell because the Brewers' #7 starter lost to the Pirates' #1 starter in a one run game with the 2 best hitting Brewer starters out? OK.

No they need to sell because:

- a third of the way through the season they are in 4th place, 6 games under .500 and have the fifth worst record in the NL

- have suffered season ending injuries to three starters and serious injuries to several others

- have one of the worst team ERAs in the league

- have one of the wost team batting averages in the league

- will likely lose one of the better pitchers in all of baseball, along with several other major contributors, after this year and get only 2 draft picks in return

- have one of the worst minor league systems in all of baseball and could use an infusion on talented players, the type of talented players you get by trading guys like Greinke, Hart, Marcum, KRod and/or Axford.

 

Can things be turned around? Or course they can. But what about this team, other than maybe the sweep of the Dodgers, has shown you that it is likely that they actually will?

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't even think I buy the Dodgers as being "the best team in baseball" -- I realize that they had the best record in the league heading into that Brewers series, but that lineup is far from impressive, even with Kemp healthy.

 

I guess my main point in nitpicking that is that I don't think one series result is enough (one way or the other) to say that the Brewers should/shouldn't sell... so I respect that you lay out all your other rationale.

[paul253]

What drove the original post was seeing the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers on the road in a 4 games series. And L.A. may not be the best team but they are a good team. So I say to myself, alright maybe things are starting to turn around a bit and Milwaukee can make a run. Then they come home and lose 2 of 3 to a Pittsburgh team that, on paper at least, they are far more talented than. And you're right, one series isn't enough to draw a conclusion. This one series just reminded me of all the other series in the first third of the season that got them to the point where they are. Losing series to the Astros. The Twins. The Pirates. The Padres. They are not a playoff team. And since they are not a playoff team they would be smart to get what they can for guys that aren't going to be on the team next season, especially those that can get you a pretty decent player in return.

[logan82]

If we started the year with the team we currently have I would say we are on the outside looking for the playoffs. We would need a lot of things to go our way to make it in. Unfortunately that isn't the position we are in. We are trying to dig out of a hole with our 2 best hitters dinged up. Winning the Dodgers series or losing the Pirates series doesn't really change my opinion except to give us fewer games to make up ground. I hope we have a nice month in June and get within a couple games of first, but unless we do, I think we should sell.

[adamds22]

I don't think we make the playoffs and we do need to sell certain pieces however at the same time I don't think we can have a fire sale either. Obviously the biggest and first piece is ZG, they need to meet with his agent now and find out if they have or are willing to give him what it takes to resign him. If not you absolutely trade him ASAP to get the biggest return possible (easier said than done). Outside of him you need to make a lot of people available but in situations like Weeks, Ramirez you'd be selling low and/or taking on salary, if that is the case I'd rather pass on trading them and hope they figure it out between now and next season.

 

Staying put: Braun, Gomez, Aoki, Weeks, Ramirez, Luc, Yo, Narv

Most likely staying put: Axford, Marcum, Parra, Estrada (I don't think anyone in this group will be traded but could see maybe Ax and Marcum if the deal is right and selling extremely high)

Listen to all trade offers: Hart, Morgan, Wolf, Kotteras, any other reliever (gotta listen to all the offers for these guys, would be nice to get something for Wolf/Morgan)

Must Trade: ZG (unless of course contract talks progress and the Brewers think they can sign him) If the Brewers let him walk for two draft picks I will be quite pissed and that would be a HUGE mistake on the Brewers behalf. If we don't trade him by the deadline I fully expect him to be a Brewer next season and beyond. You would hope that Brewers management isn't that stupid to just let him walk.

 

The rest of the guys I don't think would net us any return that would be worth anything or we don't have anyone we can plug in for the rest of the season ie SS so our hands are kind of tied in that situation and we will have to ride out what we currently have.

[monty57]

Winning the Dodgers series or losing the Pirates series doesn't really change my opinion except to give us fewer games to make up ground.

 

This is key. We're now 24-30, which means we have 54 games down, 108 to go (exactly 1/3 of the way into the season).

 

To reach 90 wins, which is probably the minimum # of wins we'd need to be to win the division, we'd need to go 66-42, a .611 winning percentage.

 

The Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Reds, Dodgers and Giants are all on pace to win 90 or more games, so even with the second Wild Card team, it's still likely going to take 88 or more wins to get a Wild Card berth. To do that, the Brewers would need to go 64-40, a .593 winning percentage. That's exactly the winning percentage we ended with last season, when we broke a Brewers' record for # of wins.

 

It's possible we make the playoffs, but unless we hit a big winning streak soon, the odds of us making it are getting slimmer and slimmer. The odds of us making it with Lucroy, Gamel, Gonzalez and Narveson gone and Braun and Ramirez banged up seem really, really slim.

[DHonks]

It's foolish to sell right now. We're in 4th place...but that's merely 6.5 games back! 3.0 behind St. Louis and 3.5 behind Pittsburgh. We have about 12-15 games left against each of our division foes, 3 against the Twins, 3 Padres, etc. If we take care of business against the division rivals, then we'll be in great shape. Relax people!

[TooLiveBrew]

If we take care of business against the division rivals, then we'll be in great shape. Relax people!

 

The problem is that this isn't necessarily true. Taking care of business against division rivals is obviously very important, but there's still plenty of other games to be played.

[paul253]

Just to play devil's advocate yes we are only 3.5 games behind St. Louis for third place, but we're also only on game ahead of Houston to stay out of 5th place. I'd feel more confident about the series against the Houstons, San Diegos and Minnesotas if we hadn't already lost series to them.

 

Like I said before, it's not that we can't turn it around. I just haven't seen anything out of this team yet that makes me confident that they will.

[adambr2]

It's foolish to sell right now. We're in 4th place...but that's merely 6.5 games back! 3.0 behind St. Louis and 3.5 behind Pittsburgh. We have about 12-15 games left against each of our division foes, 3 against the Twins, 3 Padres, etc. If we take care of business against the division rivals, then we'll be in great shape. Relax people!

 

Well, they aren't doing that. We keep talking about these easy stretches that we have coming up, like we did last month against the Astros and Twins, but every time we do, we perform poorly -- 1-3 so far at home against the Pirates and Cubs.

[trwi7]

This reminds me of every Bucks season. Jim Paschke will start his rah-rah the Bucks are only 4 games out of the playoffs and 10 of the next 12 are against teams below .500, i.e. the easy part of the schedule.

 

Every year it's the same story. The Bucks finish around .500 or worse in that part of the schedule, make up minimal ground and miss the playoffs.

 

Look at this realistically. Is this team as it is right now better than Washington, Miami, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Los Angeles or San Francisco?

[Invader3K]

Nope. I just said in the game thread, but this team isn't winning when they are supposed to right now. If they keep playing this bad over the next week, it's time to look at selling some pieces and maximizing return for Greinke, K-Rod, etc. You're not going to get as much if you wait until the last week in July.

[Oldcity]

Obviously they aren't going to sell at this moment, so there's no need in determining whether they should yet. Re-evaluate in a month. If they're 8+ games under .500 at that point, then of course they should sell.

[monty57]

Obviously they aren't going to sell at this moment, so there's no need in determining whether they should yet. Re-evaluate in a month. If they're 8+ games under .500 at that point, then of course they should sell.

 

I'd say "probably" the Brewers aren't going to sell now, but not "certainly." Every start Greinke or Marcum makes for the Brewers lowers his trade value a little bit, because he can't make that start for another team. Right now, teams would offer more in return for four months of a player than they will offer at the end of July for two months of that same player, and that's not even taking into consideration the risk of injury to a player, rendering him untradeable. Melvin knows this, because it's the exact reason he traded for Sabathia early so he could get a couple extra starts.

 

Without considering the effect on ticket sales, fan morale, etc, then I'd say right now is absolutely the time to start shopping players. Of course, ticket sales and such has to be considered, and teams don't want to look like they're "giving up," so it is likely that you are correct that if the Brewers do sell it probably won't be for another month.

 

It will upset me a bit if in a future interview Melvin says something like "We got a number of calls about Greinke and Marcum early in June, but we were still in the race, so we held onto them. We couldn't get what we wanted in July, so we held onto them because we knew we could get some good draft picks and that."

 

Few owners want to sell, but few GMs want to be the guy who missed the playoffs and watched their star players leave for nothing, so it will be interesting seeing how this plays out. With the way the Brewers have looked this season, I would be happy to see "Breaking news" that the Brewers had traded one of their "chips" for prospects. I'd be more excited to watch the prospects coming up to play than I am watching Greinke pitch with a AAA team behind him while being sold a line of "we still think we've got a shot at the playoffs."

[brewmann04]

I think the Brewers will listen to every offer and believe if the ship is not righted then we see the Brewers in selling Mode.

[paul253]

I am more and more worried about Melvin trading not for a high ceiling prospect but instead for an established major league player. I have the feeling that if we trade Greinke it'll be similar to the Carlos Lee trade where we got no legit prospect and a bunch of useless spare parts (referring to Mench and Nix. Cordero was solid but why we traded for a closer still boggles my mind). Man I hope he proves me wrong.

 

We have gone heavy outfield again with the position players so far this draft. A third basemen or shortstop prospect would look great in return for Greinke.