If we sell, what are the pieces to sell?

[adambr2]

I don't see us going down this road, but if we end up double digit games below .500 in June/July, I really would hope it's a route we'd consider.

 

First, the core of the team that we wouldn't trade, is Braun, Gallardo, Axford, and Lucroy. These are guys under contract and/or club control through at least 2015 that we can feel confident building around. That's about it.

 

Next are the guys that would have such little value on the trade block, that their return really provides minimal incentive to trade them. Sadly, it's a long list. Morgan, Aoki, Gomez, Loe, K-Rod, Veras, Chulk, Izturis, Ishikawa, Conrad, Dillard, Mayonset, Green, Kottaras, Parra, Wolf, and Estrada. That's the majority of the team -- all guys that if traded, really couldn't expect to bring even a high-end prospect back. You could make a mild case for guys like Gomez and Estrada, but they're still not guys that are going to bring that high-end piece to build around for the future.

 

Then there are guys who have too big of a contract to make them attractive in a trade, Ramirez and Weeks. A year ago, Weeks' value had pretty much peaked, but I'm convinced that injury concerns and just an atrocious season so far have put a tremendous dent into that. While it's undeniable that Weeks is still talented, his performance this year along with the 8+ figures a year he's owed the next several years would definitely be enough to scare off some suitors.

 

That leaves Greinke, Marcum, and Hart. Hart isn't an extremely lucrative trading piece, but his power and OPS might be enough to net a nice pitching prospect for him. Marcum is a guy to dangle out there at the block to teams looking to fill a spot in their rotation and might bring back a similar return.

 

Greinke is by far our biggest trading piece, but signing him is really the only hope we have of trying to get back to regrouping next year and remaining a contender. If it's becoming obvious that that's not going to happen, seeing what we can get for him isn't the worst thing in the world.

 

The flip side to that in the public eye is that it's the equivalent of throwing in the towel, which would really be a step in the direction that Mark A. and Melvin really don't want to take.

[jerichoholicninja]

I would trade Axford. He's a dime a dozen hard throwing reliever who is just coming off of a two year stretch where he could actually throw strikes. We've seen this year what happens when he can't. Finding guys like him on the scrap heap has been Melvin's bread and butter as a GM. Factor in his age and I would have no problem trading him this offseason rebuilding or not.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would trade Axford. He's a dime a dozen hard throwing reliever who is just coming off of a two year stretch where he could actually throw strikes. We've seen this year what happens when he can't. Finding guys like him on the scrap heap has been Melvin's bread and butter as a GM. Factor in his age and I would have no problem trading him this offseason rebuilding or not.

 

"Dime a dozen"? His streak of saves that ended is top 5 all time. He's extremely level headed which separates him from other hard throwers. Speaking of that he tops out at 98. That isn't as common as you suggest either.

 

If his talent is so common, then his trade value can't be all that high either.

 

He's still cheap and the Brewers have nothing close to an heir apparent and would have to overpay to get one. They've done that before, but it didn't work out too well.

[rwa12]

I would view Axford as a pretty valuable trade chip. Would think you could get a decent return for him. I don't consider him untouchable, although I wouldn't mind keeping him either. As has been said, when flamethrowing relievers lose control, it gets ugly. For the closer role, I'm always in the sell high camp.

[monty57]

adambr, while I think this is a good thread topic, I think you're being a little too hard on the Brewer players.

 

Weeks is one of the most talented 2B in the league, and his bad month isn't going to scare off trade suitors. Brandon Phillips just signed a big deal, making Weeks look relatively inexpensive, so even though he's struggled for a few weeks to start the season, he has a lot of trade value. However, I'd hold off on trading him until the offseason, or maybe even next offseason unless the return was really good. If someone bowls us over with an offer, I'd make the deal and put Green at 2B, but there's no rush to trade Rickie, who is probably necessary to our team if we want to have any hopes of being good next year.

 

I would start our "who to trade" list with the guys we're going to lose at the end of the season. That would be Greinke, Marcum and K-Rod. All of them could bring back talent (again, I think you're selling K-Rod short, as he is a "proven closer," and they're highly sought after at trade deadline). If we are not going to extend Greinke or Marcum, then they should be traded if we're still out of it in early July. Each of them should be able to bring back at least one top prospect, and that alone could keep us competative going forward. K-Rod wouldn't bring as much, but we could get a decent prospect back, especially since teams like the Yankees are having injury concerns at closer.

 

Then I'd look at Hart. He's a really good player, and he's only got a year left on his contract, so he's not a part of our "long-term" future. However with that extra year, he also has a lot of trade value, and could probably bring a top prospect back in return. Gindl is waiting in the wings, and if we're out of it Gindl + top prospect > Hart.

 

Finally, I'd look at center field. We've got Schafer as our likely center fielder of the future, and we have Morgan and Gomez in arby. If we don't trade someone, we'll probably end up not offering arby and losing him anyways, so it seems like a no-brainer to shop Morgan. He's off to a slow start, but he had a good year last year, so he should be able to return a relief pitcher or decent prospect. It makes sense to hold onto Gomez because he's got some talent and is right-handed, while all of our other CF's are left-handed.

 

I'm not sold that we can't compete without Greinke, so I think picking up some top young players/prospects to complement our "core" and the pitching prospects we have coming up could keep us competitive going forward.

[trwi7]

If we're going into a rebuilding phase Axford makes a ton of sense to trade. No reliever should ever be part of a team's core.

[cvollbrecht]

If we're going into a rebuilding phase Axford makes a ton of sense to trade. No reliever should ever be part of a team's core.

 

 

That's kind of painting with broad strokes don't you think? Rivera, Hoffman, and Smoltz were all core players for their teams during their careers and Rivera still is.

 

Now I understand what you are saying that closers are a dime a dozen, but if you have a good one then you keep it as long as the cost is reasonable and you aren't committing to the very long term. Axford is under control for another 3 years and if you can make a contract with him to buy out those years and have cost certainty then you do it.

[trwi7]

70 innings a year just isn't valuable enough for me to place in the same category as an ace or an all-star caliber hitter.

[TheCrew07]

You don't start building a team with the bullpen, it doesn't make any sense to spend money there when you have greater needs elsewhere. I would prefer to start with the rotation, then position players, then round out the team with the bullpen.

 

The problem with the Brewers developing relievers is the exact same problem as the starting pitching, if you don't have enough quality arms you're going to end up neither enough starting pitching or enough bullpen arms. Most of your relievers were starting pitchers that didn't cut it and ended up in the bullpen, so if your starting pitcher depth stinks, so does your relief.

 

The point is that if you take a guy who pitches 60 innings in a year and flip him for an everyday player or better yet a starter you do it every time because you are trading up significantly in value which makes the team and organization stronger.

 

Starting pitching > position players > bullpen. Work from the top down not the bottom up. We were so bad for so long that it seems since we actually have good players many people are afraid to flip them for fear of the unknown or a return to the 90s. We currently have a paper thin organization, the same as last year, we have no depth behind the MLB roster, last year we didn't have a single season ending injury, this year we have 3 already and the lack of depth is getting exposed. The idea should be to acquire as much as talent as possible and build as strong an organization as possible for many reasons but the 3 key reasons in my mind are; 1) depth as I'm very much a next man up kind of guy, 2) keep the talent cycling to sustain success as long as possible, and 3) younger players tend be more healthy than older players, which means less DL time, which leads to less worry about immediate depth and ultimately fewer concerns about contract value.

 

Players like Hart may be underrated nationally, but when people suggest trading him or Axford or anyone else it's not about how the player is rated by that particular person, it's about the ultimate value of the move. Very few players are irreplaceable and those that are typically price themselves outside of the Brewer's means. Trying to lock up players as "Brewers for life" definitely has some sentimental value, but the contract value at the end is typically going to be pretty bad as older players are generally less productive and more injury prone. In Hart's case he's clearly lost a step, maybe 2, and while he will be a productive player for the immediate future if you can flip him for similar or better physical talent it's worth the risk. Yes the prospect might not produce at the same level immediately if ever, but now you've freed up resources to target an impact player such as Greinke for example.

 

While many people seem to be chasing payroll flexibility I'm chasing roster flexibility where we have enough talent depth that we don't go from a Hall, to McGehee, to Ramirez and can make contract extension decisions based on more than just profitability.

[monty57]

I'd be in the camp that says closers are very valuable to winning teams, when the "cost" of each win is significant, but not very valuable to losing teams.

 

That said, I don't think that "selling" some pieces this year before we lose them to free agency will move us from the "winning" to the "losing" category. The "sells" would bring back talent which would help us next year, and would free up cash for us to upgrade areas of need. We'd still have our "core," and our young pitching would finally start reaching the MLB roster.

 

What will move us from the "winning" to the "losing" category is trading prospects for short term fixes in order to increase our chances of winning this season and then seeing loads of talent hit free agency after the season with nothing in return.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm torn on the trading Axford thing. On one hand I see a guy who's had a ton of success early on and will be pretty cheap for quite some time, a good 'bang for the buck' asset for the Brewers to build around. On the other hand, I see a guy who, due to his success and price, probably will have the most trade value of anyone on the team not named Greinke/Braun/Gallardo come July. I guess it would depend on what is coming back in return. Frankly, a guy like Axford would have been a good tool to unload a poison pill bad contract like Suppan on someone back in say, 2009. Thankfully, the Brewers don't really have anyone like that right now (unless Weeks doesn't figure things out, I guess).

[3and2Fastball]

I hadn't really thought about trading Axford but it makes sense on a lot of levels and he'd have a lot of trade value. I would be shocked if Melvin would trade Axford though

 

Greinke & K-Rod have some pretty significant trade value, especially (obviously) Greinke. Hart is another guy I would trade, as well as Marcum. Maybe a team would take Morgan as an extra part of a trade to "sweeten the deal".

[igor67]

At the start of the season I'd have put Hart high on the to trade list in this situation. Gamel's injury combined with Gindl's terrible start really makes it hard to envision an easy transition to the next guy all of a sudden. Even with some solid success in young pitching this year Narveson's injury and losing both Greinke and Marcum also looks very hard on the team. Wolf is fading, so suddenly our rotation looks like most of the last 20 years if we start selling. 1 guy worth having and a whole lot of questions.

[jerichoholicninja]

He's still cheap and the Brewers have nothing close to an heir apparent and would have to overpay to get one. They've done that before, but it didn't work out too well.

 

Or they could just grab some random reliever that throws hard and ride them till they suck like they've done before with Torres, Kolb, Coffey, Turnbow, Vizcaino, Leskanic, DeJean, etc.

[Mr Southpaw]

Trading anyone depends on who you get in return. You don't trade Axford unless you get maximum. He is cheap for years which makes him very valuable. If we make trades, I would go for as much quality as possible. Something like the Marcum/Lawrie trade. One quality 21 year old is worth more than a 3-4 average AAAAers. Anybody remember the ATL/DET Doyle Alexander trade?

[miggs721]

I'd love to make a deal if selling for Andrelton Simmons

[paul253]

I think first and foremost you start with Greinke. He's the guy that will get you the most. If he keeps pitching like he has he can get you another team's top prospect. Go for quality over quantity. I floated the idea of Greinke for Profar before. That is the type of talent I'd ask back for him. The advantage we have with Greinke is that he'll get us draft picks if he leaves. All we have to do is offer him that one year deal which the Brewers will no doubt do.

 

Then I trade Marcum. He's been successul enough the past two seasons that he'll get you a decent return. I wouldn't demand pitching back for him because if you ask for a hitter you'll probably get a better player.

 

Then I trade K-Rod. The fact is he's gone after this year and if you don't trade him you get nothing. Trade him for whatever you can get.

 

Then the other guys I look to trade are Hart and Weeks, but I'd only trade one. Hart probably has more value. The Brewers, I think, blew it by not trading him to Atlanta a few years ago. He's getting up there in age and he's definitely replaceable. If you can send to him Atlanta and get a Delgado or a Teheran back I say do it (Or Vizcaino, but he may be hurt???).

 

Weeks may be a little harder to replace in the short term, though Taylor Green could probably fill in until Gennett is ready. However I don't want to trade them both because I think that would be too much to lose.

 

Finally Axford. I think you definitely float his name around and see if you can get someone to overpay. Teams have been paying free agent closers a ton of money. If they can get someone as effective and cheap as Axford I think they'd jump on it. But his trade value decreases each year. Last year was probably his peak, though obviously they weren't going to trade him last year. If you can get a pitching prospect that can be a solid #2 or #3 then I say go for it.

 

If we trade Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod, Hart, and Axford I have to imagine we'd get enough back to prevent the full fledged rebuild.

[nate82]

Greinke, Hart, Marcum, and Axford have the most value right now. You are not going to get much if anything for K-Rod.

 

Greinke is going to bring back top notch talent. The teams that I could see going hard after Greinke if the Brewers are out are the Orioles, Rangers, Angels, and the Dodgers. The Orioles and the Rangers intrigue me the most as they have some rather nice talent in their minors most notably some short stops. I am not sure the Orioles would part with Machado but it is worth a try. The Rangers do have another short stop that they could part with as I expect them to extend Andrus if they are not able to extend Hamilton long-term. The Dodgers have some nice players but no one I would really want in a Greinke trade though I do like James Baldwin and Alfredo Silverio who I think you could get in a trade for Marcum to the Dodgers.

 

As for Hart the teams that would be looking at Hart probably don't have the prospects to net a good enough return. Again I could see the Orioles, Braves, Nationals, Giants, and the Rays as possible trade partners. Now you have to remember with Hart he does have a limited no-trade clause (15 teams) which I believe all of the 15 teams are teams that have spring training facilities in Florida. So that limits the trade possibilities for Hart and the teams that would be interested are going to be mainly teams that have spring training facilities in Florida. If Hart didn't have this clause I could see a Hunter Pence like return for Hart.

 

With Marcum the Brewers could get back some nice talent but not as much as either Hart or Greinke would bring back. As I stated previously I think the Dodgers would be really interested in Marcum and you could possibly get someone like Baldwin or Silverio in return. I like Baldwin better as Silverio is probably going to be more like a Dexter Fowler type player while I think Baldwin could peak as high as a Matt Kemp or he could be a Carlos Gomez type never really seeing his full potential. Baldwin is more risky but he is also far more talented than Silverio is but Silverio is more of a certain thing as how he will turn out. Another team I could see interested in Marcum would be the Red Sox but they really don't have much left in their farm system to trade. The Angels also make sense here but again I am not sure they have anything other than C.J. Cron.

 

Now for Axford I really think the Brewers could get a lot for him at least more than what he is worth to the Brewers. A team like the Yankees may overpay for someone like Axford if their bullpen is struggling. I could also see the Rays being a team that would be interested though I am not sure they would give up much to get Axford. The Red Sox are another team that would be interested but again they do not even have the prospects to get Axford the prospects they have are more in line of getting someone like K-Rod.

 

I would look at trading Marcum and Greinke first and then dangling Axford out there to see what teams would be offering for him. Hart has that limited no-trade clause which is going to limit the teams the Brewers can trade with unless Hart waives his no trade clause. I don't see the Brewers trading Weeks at all he is the last person I see the Brewers moving if at all.

[brewmann04]

trade wolf and or Grienke.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's still cheap and the Brewers have nothing close to an heir apparent and would have to overpay to get one. They've done that before, but it didn't work out too well.

 

Or they could just grab some random reliever that throws hard and ride them till they suck like they've done before with Torres, Kolb, Coffey, Turnbow, Vizcaino, Leskanic, DeJean, etc.

 

I don't think Axford is in the category of any of those guys and his numbers are far and away superior. Of that group, only Turnbow came close to having the stuff Axford has, and he didn't have the level head that Axford has. Plus after his one good year where he topped out at 98, Turnbow was losing velocity and command. Ax man is still topping out at 98.

[jerichoholicninja]

He's still cheap and the Brewers have nothing close to an heir apparent and would have to overpay to get one. They've done that before, but it didn't work out too well.

 

Or they could just grab some random reliever that throws hard and ride them till they suck like they've done before with Torres, Kolb, Coffey, Turnbow, Vizcaino, Leskanic, DeJean, etc.

 

I don't think Axford is in the category of any of those guys and his numbers are far and away superior. Of that group, only Turnbow came close to having the stuff Axford has, and he didn't have the level head that Axford has. Plus after his one good year where he topped out at 98, Turnbow was losing velocity and command. Ax man is still topping out at 98.

 

Ax's walk per nine is up 1.6 from last year and hits per nine is up 3.6. Obviously small sample in 13 innings but it has to be concerning. I would definitely look to trade him the off season, especially if he returns to last year's numbers.

[Roderick]

trade wolf and or Grienke.

 

Refresh my memory. Does a team that trades for a player in their last year of contract still get comp picks (A/B) if that player leaves via FA?

 

Seems to me, I thought they changed this rule, if so, that would decrease what little value Wolf would have (as you knew you would get a type B comp pick before).

[TheCrew07]

The new CBA changed the entire rental player trade structure. The only way to get draft pick compensation is to offer a qualified contract to a FA, but he has to have played for your team the entire season prior.

 

Wolf doesn't fit in this category as he has a club option remaining ($1.5 million buyout) so technically the team he was traded to could have him in 2013 as well.

 

Greinke has pitched like it's 2009 all over again, he's quickly pricing himself out of the Brewers' means.

[monty57]

trade wolf and or Grienke.

 

Refresh my memory. Does a team that trades for a player in their last year of contract still get comp picks (A/B) if that player leaves via FA?

 

Seems to me, I thought they changed this rule, if so, that would decrease what little value Wolf would have (as you knew you would get a type B comp pick before).

 

I believe the new CBA states that you can only get compensatory draft picks if the player has been on your roster the entire season. I also believe that instead of offering arbitration, the team must offer a one-year deal equal to a set salary, which I believe will be around $12MM next year. Therefore, if we trade Grienke, Marcum or K-Rod the team which we traded them to would not get any draft picks. To your question on Wolf, he does have a team option for 2013, so the team who would trade for him would be able to retain him for another year if they exercised the option. He's a bit of a conendrum... if he pitches well enough for someone to want him, we'd probably be willing to exercise his option to have him around next year when we'll need starting pitchers. If he doesn't pitch well enough for us to want to exercise his option, no one will want to trade for him.

 

It will be interesting to see how the trade deadline plays out this season. There is negative pressure in that the "buying" team will not get picks, but there will be upward pressure with the new Wild Card slot limiting supply (selling teams) while increasing demand (buying teams).

 

It would make no sense for the Brewers to trade Grienke for less than the value of the comp picks they'd recieve, so if anyone wants his services, they will have to pony up and trade some good prospects for him. He's a difference-maker, so I'd bet that the Brewers could get good talent for him. The Brewers would probably be willing to offer Marcum a one-year/$12MM deal as well, so they probably wouldn't trade him for less than a top prospect. Meanwhile, someone like K-Rod isn't going to be offered a $12MM deal, so the Brewers will only get a decent return for him if there aren't many closers on the market and they can get a few teams who need a closer into a bidding war.

[adambr2]

trade wolf and or Grienke.

 

That ship sailed months ago. IMO there is no one out there right now that would give us anything more than a low-level, will never see the MLB prospect, and even then it would be a miracle if they would pick up half the remaining salary for the year.

 

A Wolf deal at this point I think would be strictly a salary dump which would really only come into play if we ended up selling other pieces and throwing in the towel.