Offensive struggles

[markedman5]

Not sure how this compares to other teams or how the brewers have done in the past but I decided to look at how often we have had below average run production(I defined it as 3 runs or less) and how we have done in those games

 

 

Not surprising it isn't a pretty picture.

 

18 times already(we have only played 35 games) we have scored 3 runs or less and the record in those games is a pathetic 3-15.

 

I'm too lazy to do the research on how this compares to last year or how other teams are doing in low scoring games.

 

ps. I took a quick look at the Cards....2-10 in games they scroed 3 runs or less.

[jerichoholicninja]

I would guess most teams lose most of the time when they score 3 runs or less. The average runs per game a team scores is about 4.5 so in theory scoring 3 or less would greatly increase your chances of losing.

[Baldkin]

The scary part is they are only 7-4 when holding the opposing teams to 3 runs or less.

[rluzinski]

Brewers have averaged 4.06 runs per game(RPG) this year (NL average last year was 4.13)

Brewers have given up an average of 4.94 RPG

 

A team that scores 4.06 RPG is expected to score 3 runs or less, 49% of the time (Brewers have done it 51% of the time)

A team that scores 4.94 RPG is expected to score 4 or more run,s 61% of the time.

 

That means that a team that gives up an average of 4.94 RPG and scores 3 or less runs should win 39% of the time. We would expect the Brewers to be 7-11 in those games, not 3-15.

 

Of course, in an 18 game sample, we should actually expect the numbers NOT be what we should "expect". Also, while 3 runs is below average run production, an average offense scores 3 runs or less about 50% of the time. Run distribution does not follow a bell curve and those 8+ run games really makes a big difference.

[WV Brew]

Not sure anyone has noticed but the Brewers are dead last (tied with Pittsburgh) in Pythagorean numbers. Only the Twins are worse in MLB.

[brwrsfan]

18 times in 35 games is just pathetic. Sure, good pitching happens time to time. But with the players on this roster, that is completely and utterly pathetic. I'm starting to blame RR. Yeah, the lineup is underperforming in most cases, but leaving Morgan/Weeks at the top is just stupid at this point. Put Lucroy second and bat Weeks 7th. Why is it so hard for him to figure that out?

[markedman5]

Yeah its amazing. We are 6th in the league in runs scored but we have no consistency. Cards have out scored us by 49 runs in only 37 games!

 

On the other end of the spectrum we have given up 181 runs....in the same number of games Washington has given up 121.

 

Even with the terrible offense the terrific pitching is carrying them.

[mothershipconnection]

I can't watch Brooks Conrad anymore. Yes, it's a small sample, but even on an offense that frequently sucks, his bewilderment at the plate stands out.

[MNBrew]

I can't watch Brooks Conrad anymore. Yes, it's a small sample, but even on an offense that frequently sucks, his bewilderment at the plate stands out.

 

Exactly. I hope he's the guy sent out when Gomez comes back. For a guy w/ about 2.5 yrs of MLB service time & increasingly declining production, he's about 10x more pathetic on this team than Casey McGehee ever was. Yuck.

[rluzinski]

18 times in 35 games is just pathetic. Sure, good pitching happens time to time. But with the players on this roster, that is completely and utterly pathetic. I'm starting to blame RR. Yeah, the lineup is underperforming in most cases, but leaving Morgan/Weeks at the top is just stupid at this point. Put Lucroy second and bat Weeks 7th. Why is it so hard for him to figure that out?

Did you not see my post where I showed that an average offensive team scores 3 or less runs about 50% of the time? And calling the Brewers offense average at this point might be kind. Juggling a couple of batting order spots around is not going to make much of a difference.

 

And it's not a small sample with Conrad, as he has been pretty worthless his whole major league career.

[adambr2]

18 times in 35 games is just pathetic. Sure, good pitching happens time to time. But with the players on this roster, that is completely and utterly pathetic. I'm starting to blame RR. Yeah, the lineup is underperforming in most cases, but leaving Morgan/Weeks at the top is just stupid at this point. Put Lucroy second and bat Weeks 7th. Why is it so hard for him to figure that out?

 

You can, but is it really going to matter? You can plug Lucroy at the #2 spot in the order, you can try Hart at cleanup, you can experiment with Green, Mayonset, Aoki, etc, all getting a lot of reps, but no matter how many ways you put lipstick on this pig, they're just not very good. Injuries have been a part of that, but I think we're giving this current roster too much credit. They're a far cry from last year's team, at this point.

[adambr2]

To sum it up:

 

Ramirez/Izturis is probably about equally bad offensively as McGehee/Betancourt.

 

Ishikawa is a massive, massive dropoff from Prince.

 

Everywhere else is pretty much the same, but Weeks and Morgan, who were important parts of the offense last year, are shells of their 2011 selves. About the only good news is that Braun is still Braun, but he's a one man show. Hart and Lucroy do enough to be solid contributors, but the rest of the lineup is far too bad for one star and two solid contributors to make up for.

[adambr2]

I didn't even realize until the postgame that Morgan was jogging down the line to 1st on his bases loaded DP, looking back to see what happened at the plate with Weeks. Completely inexcusable. If he's running all out for 90 feet, he's safe at 1st and at least we have one more shot with the bases loaded.