Speaking of Josh Hamilton (somebody had to) [Latest… Melvin: We have the connection with Narron but not with US Bank… post 230]

[wisniewski]

I couldn't be more firmly entrenched on the side of NO when it comes to the Brewers signing Hamilton. It just has no basis in reality as the team currently stands. Aside from the reasons I previously mentioned, I also agree with the poster that said the agent is planting it with guys like Olney (who is a notorious shill for certain agents) just to get some buzz generated.

 

I thought this was an interesting read, and sorry if already posted, I didn't see it:

 

http://disciplesofuecker.com/josh-hamilton-brewers-rumor/7176

[Bnowell4evr]

Assuming the Brewers sign Hamilton there is a lot of injury risk concerns with that team. Hart, Braun, Weeks, Ramirez, and Hamilton are all rather high injury risk concerns. Now add in Lucroy who plays catcher and you have another player who is going to be injured off and on.

 

The biggest concern for the Brewers is what happens when you have two or three of Hart, Braun, Weeks, Ramirez or Hamilton injured? At 2B you have Bianchi and Gennett as your top two options while at LF you have Schafer, Davis, Gamel and Gindl?

 

I just don't see the point of adding Hamilton as he is a rather high injury concern plus if you sign him you almost have to either trade Weeks and Gomez or Hart. Now Weeks doesn't have all that much trade value right now and you would not be getting much in return for him while Gomez has a positive trade value. Hart is probably the player the Brewers decide to trade away and I believe then the Brewers would have to sign Hamilton to play 1B and I am not sure he would want to do that. Trading Hart or Gomez may actually be a good idea for the Brewers but I just don't like the signing of Hamilton as he is a rather high injury risk concern with a team that has a rather high injury risk already.

 

I don't see the Cardinals going after Hamilton as they have nowhere to play him. If the Cardinals don't have room for Berkman why would they have room for Hamilton? Yes I know Hamilton is a better player than Berkman but Craig is someone who is cheaper and can almost bring you as much production as Hamilton can. I just don't see the Cardinals as a fit here and the same with the Reds, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, and some other teams.

 

I believe there are only a few teams that are going to be in on Hamilton. The teams that I see going after Hamilton are the Brewers (I don't like it), Rangers, and possibly the Red Sox. I believe like Fielder last year the market is rather small for Hamilton though there maybe a team that comes out of no where and surprises everyone and makes a huge offer to Hamilton but I am not sure there is a team like the Tigers this coming off season. I believe the Brewers will do the 5-years $100m offer to Hamilton and the Rangers will walk away. The Brewers may actually be the team that lands Hamilton and they maybe bidding against themselves in this situation.

 

I disagree about having to trade Rickie Weeks if we signed Hamilton. We have a bunch of pre arb guys who will be making the roster next year that will allow us to keep Weeks and even Hart if we choose to do so. From just a quick check I see 13 guys on our potential opening day roster making the major league minimum and 2 others making peanuts for their production (Aoki/Estrada). Thats 60 percent of our opening day roster making under 12 mill.

[markedman5]

Mark A said in the J/S today that payroll would be coming down and they lost money last year.

 

The Brewers will clear some $40 million off the 2012 books with Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Rodriguez, Wolf and shortstop Alex Gonzalez no longer in the picture. But that doesn't mean they'll have that much to spend on new talent. Salaries of other players will rise via long-term deals or arbitration.

 

Attanasio also indicated the payroll will come down from the franchise-record level of $100 million with which the Brewers began the 2012 season. With attendance dropping from more than 3 million in 2011 to 2.83 million this year, the club will finish the year in the red, and not by just a little bit.

 

"We're going to curb it back some," said Attanasio. "You've got to have the flexibility to add players during the season if you're in a good position. We were stretched so tight this season, though that wouldn't have mattered if we had been in position to win. We would have done something."

[MNBrew]

Two more thoughts:

 

- Given his circumstances, Hamilton's indeed a bit unique and, atypically, perhaps a better fit than might otherwise seem . . . maybe in a similar way that Greinke turned out to be. I'm not sure it makes any difference in terms of the Brewers' actual needs, but I think it's still a point that will give the rumors extended life.

- I'm convinced that the fact that St. Louis doesn't appear to have an open position for Hamilton means absolutely nothing. They have a history of going out & getting "big fish" guys when they weren't seen as being in the running for 'em.

[nate82]

 

I disagree about having to trade Rickie Weeks if we signed Hamilton. We have a bunch of pre arb guys who will be making the roster next year that will allow us to keep Weeks and even Hart if we choose to do so. From just a quick check I see 13 guys on our potential opening day roster making the major league minimum and 2 others making peanuts for their production (Aoki/Estrada). Thats 60 percent of our opening day roster making under 12 mill.

 

Hamilton at a min will cost $20m a year. Hart, Gomez, Gallardo, Axford, Braun and Estrada will all be making more than they were last year.

 

Taking into account all the raises the Brewers will have for 2013 just Axford, Braun, Gallardo, Estrada, Hart, Gomez, and Ramirez is at about 46.25m of the budget which is a difference in salaries from 2012 of approximately 16.79m. That 40m is rather small when you take into account the raises that the team already has coming. The budget for the 2013 Brewers should be somewhere around what the Brewers had during the 2010-2011 season which will put the team at or around $90m.

 

I just don't see any room for Hamilton without trading someone or non tendering someone like Estrada and a few others. If you keep everyone you are looking at a budget around $100-110m which I just do not see happening.

 

So if the Brewers really do sign Hamilton expect Hart to be traded or a combination of players to be traded. Weeks, Estrada, and Gomez would all be looked at to be traded.

[MNBrew]

I just don't see any room for Hamilton without trading someone or non tendering someone like Estrada and a few others. If you keep everyone you are looking at a budget around $100-110m which I just do not see happening.

 

So if the Brewers really do sign Hamilton expect Hart to be traded or a combination of players to be traded. Weeks, Estrada, and Gomez would all be looked at to be traded.

 

I agree about Weeks (for $$ reasons) & Gomez (for PT & "sell high" reasons), but Estrada's pitched very well as a starter & won't be very expensive yet, which means he'd hardly be much of a payroll burden.

 

Of course, Hart could be in the trade picture, too, but IF Hamilton were to happen, ultimately who gets traded would also be predicated largely on what the return would be for any players in question. For example: If you get peanuts offered for Weeks but a decent AA pitcher with a live arm & respectable control offered for Gomez, or a huge return offered for Hart + maybe a young live arm . . . you make a whole different set of moves than if you're offered peanuts for Hart, peanuts for Gomez, and so forth . . .

[nate82]

Marco Estrada will be under his first arbitration season so he will cost around $2m which is not all that expensive but he is not cheap anymore.

[MNBrew]

Marco Estrada will be under his first arbitration season so he will cost around $2m which is not all that expensive but he is not cheap anymore.

 

If Estrada continues to pitch as he has the past 2 years, $2M-ish is still, relatively speaking, both very affordable and very cost-effective, which are exactly why I think there's practically zero chance he's traded. He's the 2nd-most experienced/healthy starter on the team, and about everyone after him has major asterisks in terms of youth/experience (Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Rogers) &/or injury (Narveson, Rogers, Peralta).

 

The Brewers' more "tradeable" depth lies in guys like Hart, Gomez, & Weeks in terms of proven &/or appealing players who, by trading them, also would realize a meaningful cost savings to allow for one or more bigger-buck acquisitions . . . and whose losses could be filled by young but very possibly competent other players, therefore NOT blowing major holes in the roster (Weeks' replacement being the least certain amongst those players).

 

Point: I don't know that trades of any of those guys are likely, even with a potential Hamilton signing, but I'd see a bigger-contract guy or Gomez far more likely to be moved than Estrada.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I'm ok with them throwing 20 mil at a player but I'll be pretty mad if its Hamilton and not Greinke.

[MVP2110]

Gotta admit Hamilton is very intriguing. Adding Hamilton to the best NL lineup would just make things downright scary. We wouldn't need great pitching. just average pitching which i think we can find with our young guys. At the deadline we could always make a move if we needed to. and I think adding Hamilton would give us tremendous depth every where across the board which would be huge for inevitable injuries. All that said, I won't be too dissapointed when we don't sign hamilton. I will be though if we sign Lohse to a huge contract

[monty57]

Mark A said in the J/S today that payroll would be coming down and they lost money last year.

 

The Brewers will clear some $40 million off the 2012 books with Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Rodriguez, Wolf and shortstop Alex Gonzalez no longer in the picture. But that doesn't mean they'll have that much to spend on new talent. Salaries of other players will rise via long-term deals or arbitration.

 

Attanasio also indicated the payroll will come down from the franchise-record level of $100 million with which the Brewers began the 2012 season. With attendance dropping from more than 3 million in 2011 to 2.83 million this year, the club will finish the year in the red, and not by just a little bit.

 

"We're going to curb it back some," said Attanasio. "You've got to have the flexibility to add players during the season if you're in a good position. We were stretched so tight this season, though that wouldn't have mattered if we had been in position to win. We would have done something."

 

 

Thanks for the post Markedman5. Here's the link: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-thinking-about-small-changes-0t7c4b3-176060731.html

 

As many here have stated, regardless of any new TV deals or any other assumed new revenue streams, we will probably see a payroll in the $80-90MM range to start the 2013 season. In the linked article, it also states "Melvin said he did not expect to be involved with high-priced free agents this winter, and Hamilton fits that bill." I'd have to guess that Greinke also fits that bill.

 

Attanasio stated the #1 priority is fixing the bullpen, and Melvin would like to add a veteran starting pitcher, but that will be hard to do: "We're just not adding any veteran. It has to be the right move for us. I know Doug and his staff would like to add another veteran starter. I don't know how or where that's going to come from. We've got a lot of good young pitchers coming up from the minor leagues, so we may find our answers there."

[Invader3K]

I could see Zack Greinke being a "special case" where the Brewers would be willing to sign him to a fairly large contract because of his popularity with the fan base. No, I don't see that happening as I think we would get outbid by some other club anyway. What I'm getting at is that other than Greinke, I can't really see the team splurging on a big contract this winter.

[Mr QL]

Say what you want but signing Josh Hamilton would sure be exciting.

[chickinbrickin]

I want no part of Hamilton. Look at who won the WS again. The Giants and their pitching. Yes, the lineup would be very tough and we would score runs, but that doesn't guarantee anything. Throw that money at Greinke and I am a happy man.

 

The Brewer's offense is already very strong, no need to bolster that more and forget about pitching. While a Hamilton signing would be exciting it would also be very stupid IMO.

[MNBrew]

Signing Hamilton could be completely independent of the pitching situation and could actually stand to be helpful, esp. if moving a different bat or two could help net some high-end pitching along w/ some solid BP help.

 

Signing Hamilton would be a huge move. But the bigger question is if it's really even necessary.

[SRB]

I really like Hamilton as a player, but in terms of value he is severely overrated pretty much just entirely based on his 2010 season. If you look at his stats, particular his advanced stats like fWAR, his is a good-but-not-elite player. Last season he was worth 4.4 fWAR and 4.1 fWAR the year before (636 PA and 538 PA, respectively). By comparison, Gomez was worth 3.5 fWAR last year in 452 PA.

 

I could honestly see Gomez being the more valuable player going forward, given his age and physical tools.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/176876051.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

This makes me feel better. This quote is hilarious. “We’ve got the connection with (hitting coach) Johnny Narron but we don’t have the connection with U.S. Bank,” said Melvin.

[JohnBriggs12]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/176876051.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

This makes me feel better. This quote is hilarious. “We’ve got the connection with (hitting coach) Johnny Narron but we don’t have the connection with U.S. Bank,” said Melvin.

 

The statement Melvin made is coy and doesn't really rule anything out. It repeats what we know and that is the Brewers won't go overboard to sign him. But just yesterday on MLB Network, Dan Plesac, when asked about Hamilton, said straight out, "Brewers, 5 years, $100 million". The MLB network guys are pretty well connected.

[ORBrewerFan]

If we sign Hamilton, Hart is gone and Maldonado better buy a first baseman's glove.

[Raw Biz]

If we sign Hamilton, Hart is gone and Maldonado better buy a first baseman's glove.

 

I've said that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Hart could bring back a solid young pitcher.

[xisxisxis]

a top of the order of

 

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Hamilton

ARam

 

would be very impressive. Do you spend $20m per for 5 years on Hamilton or the same (ish) on Greinke? Hart will likely only be here 1 more year. Gomez is gone for sure next year. Aram is way on the wrong side of the career peak so we will be needing to replace 3 bats over the next 2 years. A pre-emptive move to address the offense IF THE DEAL IS TAILORED IN THE BREWERS FAVOR does make some sense. the upper levels of the farm system lacks impact bats so i could see a hamilton signing makes sense for the current window of being competitive.

[wisniewski]

So the Rangers QO'd Hamilton, which is no big surprise...so not only will his signing team have to give him a bloated and overpriced deal, they'll also have to surrender a top pick.

[monty57]

If we sign Hamilton, Hart is gone and Maldonado better buy a first baseman's glove.

 

I've said that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Hart could bring back a solid young pitcher.

 

Yeah, I think signing Hamilton would require a few dominoes to fall. Hart gets traded for a young starting pitcher who can go 200 IP (eliminating the need to spend money on a veteran FA SP). Gamel becomes the everyday 1B with Morris waiting in the wings in AAA. Gomez is probably traded for young relievers to help out the pen (eliminating some of the need to spend money on veteran relievers). Braun, Hamilton, Aoki are the starting OF with Schafer as the #4 OF.

 

C Lucroy ($750k)

1B Gamel ($481k)

2B Weeks ($10MM)

SS Segura ($480k)

3B Ramirez ($10MM)

LF Braun ($8.5MM)

CF/RF Hamilton ($20MM)

CF/RF Aoki ($1.25MM)

 

Total position players $51,461,000

 

SP Gallardo ($7.75MM)

SP Pre-arby guy traded for Hart ($414k)

SP Fiers ($414k)

SP Estrada ($1.5MM ? arby guess)

SP Rogers ($414k)

 

*I don't know who will win out for the rotation spots, but they're all league minimum

 

Total SP $10,492,000

 

That's around $62MM locked up in the starters. Our bench should be mainly filled up with pre-arby guys, and trading Gomez for a reliever should allow us to stay pretty cheap in the bullpen.

 

I would say it's doable, but it certainly brings risk to the table, may hamstring us in the future as other guys get more expensive (if we don't continually cycle talent) and requires a lot of moving pieces. I agree that we couldn't pull it off without trading Hart and probably Gomez, but trying to move all of those pieces doesn't seem like a Melvin-type move. That's more of a thing the Marlins do and it ends up blowing up on them. We'd really need to have the Hart trade in the bag before we'd sign Hamilton.

 

Fun to ponder, but it sounds too much like fantasy than reality.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If you have to trade Hart to get Hamilton why not just lock up Hart, he will be alot cheaper and then use that money elsewhere, the only way I sign Hamilton is if Hart stays.

[Raw Biz]

If you have to trade Hart to get Hamilton why not just lock up Hart, he will be alot cheaper and then use that money elsewhere, the only way I sign Hamilton is if Hart stays.

 

Personally, because I think Hart could bring back a better pitcher in a trade than we could find as a FA. I'd rather have Hamilton and trade for a young SP than re-sign Hart long-term and sign Dempster/EJax/Lohse/etc. I also don't think Hart will be that much cheaper. He'd still probably cost in the 4/60 range. Again, this is all assuming Hamilton could be had for relatively cheap, which I doubt. But given a choice, I'd trade Hart and sign Hamilton rather than resign Hart and sign a FA pitcher.