Speaking of Josh Hamilton (somebody had to) [Latest… Melvin: We have the connection with Narron but not with US Bank… post 230]

[Bnowell4evr]

monty57,

 

I might get you in trouble with some on here, but I couldn't agree more with your post. I'd add that top of the rotation starters with 2-3 years on deals are guys you can usually only get in trades. Most of the veterans out there some are suggesting are mid to back end guys, or mid rotation guys coming off of career yeas in their 30's. The risk of overpaying these types is huge and the Brewers have a history of doing just that especially when they have a lot of room in their budgets. That's exactly why some of us would rather go with guys that showed something last year and are still cheap. There will be quality veteran arms available in July. There are every year.

 

Your assessment of the Hamilton situation is right on. Big upgrade at right price is something you don't turn away from. The Brewers aren't going to blow teams out of the water with a Fielder type offer that was fueled by an owner willing to lose money to win a championship before he dies. But the Brewers have been and still need to be opportunity shoppers.

 

I agree that the majority of time you acquire a top of the rotation pitcher for 2 or 3 years its gonna come in a trade. However many posters who have advocated acquiring that type of pitcher refuse to do another trade and would only sign that type of FA if it was for outrageously below market value. There seems to be a disconnect with reality in how they would acquire those types of arms and instead of doing what it takes to attain them they would rather do nothing and waste a year of Braun's prime.

[monty57]

At least the group of fans who want an all in house rotation should be pleased with these rumors.

 

Is there a group that specifically wants an "all in house rotation?" I don't want us to sign a multi-year deal for a pitcher that we'll regret in a couple of years, and that same logic would apply to signing Hamilton to a long-term / $20+MM-a-year deal.

 

Just like I'd be fine with signing a top-of-the-rotation starter to a 2-3 year deal, I'd be fine with signing Hamilton to a shorter-term deal. Just like I wouldn't sign a big, multi-year deal to a CF who is no better than Gomez/Schafer, I do not want to sign a big, multi-year deal to a SP who is no better than the "in-house" guys we already have.

 

Getting a significant upgrade at a position is great, and that's the only reason you'd sign a player to a position where you already have "MLB caliber" players. We have CF covered, but Hamilton is a big enough upgrade where you'd consider signing him for the right price. We have SP covered, but if we can get a significant upgrade at the right price we should look at upgrading. In neither case should we sign a veteran just because we have some money to spend and it'll look to the fans like the front office is trying. Not that that's what you're advocating, but some seem to think we need to get a veteran pitcher "just because."

 

From my perspective there are a large number of posters on this site who would prefer Melvin to do nothing this winter so a couple of pitchers with a mid 4 ERA in AAA along with a journeyman who was dumped by the Nationals can be given every rotation spot behind Gallardo. There seems to be a large number of Brewer fans who were upset by our late season surge because it prevented an all our rebuild like they desperately wanted.

 

...and after reading my post, is that still your perception of my reality?

 

I desparately wanted Melvin to trade Greinke when the ship was sinking, and am very glad that he did, as it shored up a big hole at SS for the next six years and added some hig-upside talent to our stable of young pitchers. During the late-season surge, I later said it could be a perfect scenario where they got a good return for Greinke and still made the playoffs. While the Brewers were hemming and hawing about trading Greinke, some posters wanted the Brewers to lose a few games so that Melvin would pull the trigger on the trade, but I don't believe anyone wanted the Brewers to lose after the Greinke trade was made.

 

I am a fan of free agency, as players shouldn't be forced forever to play under the control of one team, but I hate the fact that free agency means the Brewers can lose good players for nothing. Therefore, I'm an advocate of at least testing the market on any player who is entering their final year of "team control," and why I dislike trading away talented young players with 6 years of control for players with a year or two remaining on their contract. That may be perceived by those who don't read through entire threads/posts as a desire to "trade everyone," but I definitely don't want to blow the team up or "fire sale." In fact, I try to look for a methodology which would lead to us never having to go through a "fire sale." Teams which have to have "fire sales" are in the situation because they get themselves into too many expensive, long-term deals which destroys their financial flexibility. Trading (rather than extending) Greinke and bringing back a long-term inexpensive answer at SS, along with allowing the young pitchers to prove they're "MLB Caliber" has gotten me excited at the prospect of having a lot of good, young, inexpensive talent filling in the holes around the higher-priced vets we have on the roster.

 

It was the "couple of pitchers with a mid 4 ERA in AAA along with a journeyman who was dumped by the Nationals" who turned the ship around and almost got us to the playoffs. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't look at upgrading, but it certainly doesn't mean that they're all worthless and should be blocked at any cost by any veteran FA we can find. Peralta (one of those "mid 4 ERA in AAA" guys) is the Brewers top prospect, and will almost certainly be in most "Top 100" prospect lists. Rogers obviously has loads of talent, and we lose him if he's not on the roster. Estrada, the "journeyman who was dumped by the Nationals," has 30 starts for the Brewers, with a 3.76 ERAs, 1.15 WHIP and 133 K in 129.1 IP in 2012 and a 3.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 33 K in 41.1 IP as a starter in 2011.

 

That said, I have certainly acknowledged that starting four inexexperienced guys behind Gallardo would have a lot of risk. However, there's also a lot of risk in making a trade or signing a free agent. I just like to look at things like cost vs value, as opposed to those who argue a point either with a snide remark against a strawman or with something like "it's not my money," or "we need a veteran." Everything has a cost, and everything has a value. When making any decision in life, always weigh the cost vs the value. If you do this, you may miss out every now and then, but you will almost never be the big loser.

[TheCrew07]

There seems to be a large number of Brewer fans who were upset by our late season surge because it prevented an all our rebuild like they desperately wanted.

 

I'm glad that well thought out arguments about ultimate value by any number of posters gets reduced to "rebuild like they desperately wanted".

 

Nobody, absolutely nobody, who's talked at length about young players, value, or the proper time to trade a player has been in favor of a rebuild. In fact, that's exactly what posters like me are trying to avoid. There may be some random posts here and there about a total rebuild, but that's not what the more vocal posters are discussing at all.

 

The question you need to ask yourself is why a rebuild ever becomes necessary in the first place. When you see or get your mind around all of the different scenarios that can contribute to the point where the production on the field isn't worth the payroll in place, hence the need for a complete teardown of the roster, then maybe you'll understand where we are coming from.

 

If posts from me or other posters like Monty are too long for you to read then do us the courtesy of not commenting on points of view you that you haven't taken the time to read, let alone understand. The points have been made and discussed from so many different angles that I have a hard time believing it's a matter of understanding, in truth it's probably just simple a lack of effort... skimming a post, inferring your own conclusion on what the post was trying to say, and posting back some circular taglines that have little or nothing to do with the actual topic of the post.

 

In truth the gist of the "value" argument is simple ecomonics and good business sense. Hack some 0s off the money being discussed and if you were a small business owner what kind of talent would you be looking to acquire to build your organization? Instead of millions we're dealing in the tens of thousands... bringing it down to the level most of us are playing at. You might want to bring in some older expensive employees to fill certain niche roles to help develop your strategy and work force but what type person would your core employee be? Would you have an expectation of being able to retain your best employees if their salary demands outpace your ability to pay them?

 

The value arguments are best described as treating the Brewers' money like you would your own. When you're playing in a rigged system you have to extract as much value out of every single dollar you spend as possible. There's no such thing as a "wash", there's money that brings back positive value and money that doesn't, each year is its own animal. Take Wolf, he was great for 2 years but he was still dead money this season, and the good years don't make up for the bad. 7 digits spent on negative WAR is money wasted, regardless of the contract, player, or position. It's 7 digits that could have been better spent elsewhere. It's much more prudent to take peformance risks on young minimum wage players than it is to continually bet 7-8 digit salaries on aging/declining players.

 

Again, no FA contract longer than 2 years has worked out well in the end for Melvin. Hart hopefully will be the first, and he was a home grown guy, if Weeks rebounds a solid argument will be able to be made for him as well. FA pitching has been a disaster, every single contract he's signed has had dead money in it. Suppan, Looper, Riske, Davis, Gagne, Hoffman, Hawkins, K-Rod (his tender), Wolf... who was healthy and productive the entire length of their stay? It's no secret that I don't have much use for Melvin, but it's not that he's been unlucky, that's simply the way it goes with aging players. They aren't any less risky than "these damn kids who are being pushed on us", how do the kids ever get a chance to prove they belong if they aren't given an opportunity?

 

I've been saying it for years, I'm very much a next man up believer in organization building. That means there will be a time a place for FA signings, like the Packers signing Pickett and Woodson, niche players that return great value, but that kind of value isn't sitting in the FA pool every single year. As a yearly tool FA should mostly be about short duration stopgaps, especially for the Brewers competing in a tilted market. FA isn't a means to end for Milwaukee, it's a means to mediocrity, because that's all the Brewers can really afford to buy on long-term deals. FA should be the last stop made when trying to fill a hole, not the first.

 

In the case of Hamilton, a hole doesn't even exist so you'd better be getting some great value since you know over the course of 3 years he'll miss over 130 games, and over the course of a 4 year contract he'll miss an entire season's worth of games. If the years and the money are right, sure take a shot, but a 4 year deal worth $80 million essentially means we should lop $20 mil right off the top because he misses so many games per season. He's a fantastic talent, but he's lived hard and his body just doesn't hold up for even 140 games per season.

 

Just say no and move on Doug. The team has enough SLG and offensive production to score runs the way it is.

[Raw Biz]

I haven't read through every post but would people be opposed to signing Hamilton to play 1B and trading Hart for pitching? If you could sign Hamilton for something like 4/80 and trade Hart for a young arm with multiple years of control, I'd be all over that.

[paul253]

From my perspective there are a large number of posters on this site who would prefer Melvin to do nothing this winter so a couple of pitchers with a mid 4 ERA in AAA along with a journeyman who was dumped by the Nationals can be given every rotation spot behind Gallardo. There seems to be a large number of Brewer fans who were upset by our late season surge because it prevented an all our rebuild like they desperately wanted.

 

What an ignorant post. I mean, first of all, the guys with the "mid 4 ERA" in AAA, namely Peralta and Rogers, both have top of the rotation potential. Peralta had a bad few weeks after he was recalled to Milwaukee and thrown in the bullpen then he came back and pitched like the top prospect he is. Rogers obviously has had some injury issues but his shoulder has been fine for three years now. What would you like us to do with these guys? Rogers has to be with the club one way or the other next season as he is out of options. Do you want to just throw him in the bullpen and go sign a 30 year older veteran for $5 million?

 

And what are the alternatives? I have no doubt you'll throw out names like Greinke, Peavy, and Sanchez as if any of them are actually realistic targets. The reason people want to go with "mid 4 ERA in AAA and a journeyman who was dumped by Washington" is because A) All of them pitched REALLY well in Milwaukee last season B) They are a hell of a lot cheaper than the alternative, allowing the Brewers to spend their limited money elsewhere and C) Because we feel they are just as good or better than the REALISTIC targets like Ervin Santana or Kyle Lohse. The way I see it is we already have 5 options for the last 4 spots (Peralta, Rogers, Estrada, Narveson and Fiers) with two top prospects (Burgos and Thornburg) ready to contribute should something happen.

 

And I'll admit it. I wouldn't have been all that upset with the Brewers finishing with a top ten pick in the draft. They still desperately need talented prospects to bolster their below average farm system. It was nice watching them do well in September but in the end it didn't accomplish all that much.

[TooLiveBrew]

I haven't read through every post but would people be opposed to signing Hamilton to play 1B and trading Hart for pitching? If you could sign Hamilton for something like 4/80 and trade Hart for a young arm with multiple years of control, I'd be all over that.

I just don't think any team will get production to match the value of the contract Hamilton is going to get. I like the idea of moving him to 1B to help keep him on the field, but Hamilton might well not want to make that switch. If he were amenable to the move, then I think TC07's estimates on missed playing time would be pretty overstated.

 

With that said... I love the bat, but I just think $20M/season for his age 33-36 seasons is a colossal risk for the Brewers. I think Raw Biz's 4/$80M number is a good low-end estimate for the contract Hamilton will get. I could also see AL teams being the main pursuers since they could shift him to DH as he gets older; as a wealthy AL club you could probably justify a 5th season in your offer.

[MVP2110]

I would be willing to go 4/80 or 5/90 for him. Our pitching the next few years should be somewhat cheap and Hart is expiring and most likely not coming back next season. This year we could roll out a lineup of Gomez/Aoki Weeks Braun Ramirez Hamilton Hart LuCroy Segura and then replace Hart next year with a cheaper option in Gamel or someone else and still have a hell of a lineup. With Aoki and Gomez as depth to Im not as concerned with the injury potential. and frankly no pitchers out there really excite me so why not try to improve our offense even more and then maybe make a deal for a pitcher at the deadline if we need pitching

[Bnowell4evr]

From my perspective there are a large number of posters on this site who would prefer Melvin to do nothing this winter so a couple of pitchers with a mid 4 ERA in AAA along with a journeyman who was dumped by the Nationals can be given every rotation spot behind Gallardo. There seems to be a large number of Brewer fans who were upset by our late season surge because it prevented an all our rebuild like they desperately wanted.

 

What an ignorant post. I mean, first of all, the guys with the "mid 4 ERA" in AAA, namely Peralta and Rogers, both have top of the rotation potential. Peralta had a bad few weeks after he was recalled to Milwaukee and thrown in the bullpen then he came back and pitched like the top prospect he is. Rogers obviously has had some injury issues but his shoulder has been fine for three years now. What would you like us to do with these guys? Rogers has to be with the club one way or the other next season as he is out of options. Do you want to just throw him in the bullpen and go sign a 30 year older veteran for $5 million?

 

And what are the alternatives? I have no doubt you'll throw out names like Greinke, Peavy, and Sanchez as if any of them are actually realistic targets. The reason people want to go with "mid 4 ERA in AAA and a journeyman who was dumped by Washington" is because A) All of them pitched REALLY well in Milwaukee last season B) They are a hell of a lot cheaper than the alternative, allowing the Brewers to spend their limited money elsewhere and C) Because we feel they are just as good or better than the REALISTIC targets like Ervin Santana or Kyle Lohse. The way I see it is we already have 5 options for the last 4 spots (Peralta, Rogers, Estrada, Narveson and Fiers) with two top prospects (Burgos and Thornburg) ready to contribute should something happen.

 

And I'll admit it. I wouldn't have been all that upset with the Brewers finishing with a top ten pick in the draft. They still desperately need talented prospects to bolster their below average farm system. It was nice watching them do well in September but in the end it didn't accomplish all that much.

 

1. I agree with you completely about Rogers and Peralta but you failed to mention Mike Fiers as the main guy I was calling out as a fluke. It seems like the vast majority of posters want to believe his hot start is indicative of his true pitching prowess instead of his ugly finish and very modest AAA numbers. I view Fiers, Estrada and Narveson as #5/long relievers and the thought of going into the season with a rotation including two of them makes me nauseous.

 

2. How isn't Anibal Sanchez (The guy I truely covet this offseason) not a REALISTIC target when we've offered Greinke over $100M and are being linked to top FA's like Josh Hamilton?

 

3. Hiram Burgos isn't anywhere near a top prospect. I'm glad he had a great year but his stuff isn't respected by any of the prospect gurus and the Brewers website even left him off their top 20 prospect list.

 

4. I'm glad you can admit that which goes to prove my point. I know there's plenty of other posters just from reading the Aramis Ramirez thread that would've welcomed a complete rebuild as well

[TooLiveBrew]

Sooo... Josh Hamilton...

[Bnowell4evr]

Sooo... Josh Hamilton...

 

This site needs a Thanks or a Like button. Sorry for derailing the thread... Back to your regularly scheduled programming

[markedman5]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/brewers.html

[mothershipconnection]

I really don't know that this is different from any free agent at a position where we're not stacked. "Yep, if he doesn't get any good offers and will come to us at a bargain price, we want him."

 

I bet we'll also sign Ichiro if he wants to come here for next to nothing to be a 4th OF. You may all gasp in shock.

[ELCABALLO45]

The guy has a OPS of .913 and we are acting like we are thinking about going after Alfonso Soriano

 

This is hilarious.

Soriano, Washington, 2006: .277, .351, .560.... .911

Hamilton 2012: .285, .354, .577.... .930.

 

One was 30 years old, the other 31.

 

One averaged 155 games over the previous 6 years, the other, 111.

 

I want no part of Hamilton.

 

Soriano's career OPS after that year was .836

Hamilton's career OPS is .913

 

Josh Hamilton has been a elite hitter the past 3 years. Including OPSing over 1.000 his MVP year.

 

Yes I know he will be 32 next year. Aramis Ramirez was 34 this year and posted a OPS of .901.

 

I am not saying give him a 7 year deal, but if we can get him for a reasonable 5 year deal, the amount of people shying away from him confuses me. A 5 year deal will bring him to the age of 36. Soriano had a OPS of .821 this year. He is "36" His career OPS is .828.

[TooLiveBrew]

Soriano also put up a cumulative OPS of .768 from 2009-'11 (paid an AAV of $18.33M for those seasons), so let's not pretend he hasn't been ridiculously overpaid for most of this contract. He also didn't play full-time in '07, '08, '09, & '11, further cutting into the value he produced.

 

Soriano's career arc is a good example to use of a player aging, especially since Soriano was far more durable through his age-31 season than Hamilton has been. Soriano's cumulative OPS for his age 32-36 seasons is a slugging-heavy .800 (109 OPS+). Not bad, but not particularly good for a left fielder... & certainly not worth the $87M the Cubs have paid him for those five seasons. They spent on him like they'd be getting the ~.900 OPS guy he was in his walk year with Washington for years to come, and they only got that caliber of hitter for 244 games in his first two seasons with the club. Since then, a cumulative .783 OPS.

 

Hamilton is a tremendously talented hitter right now, no doubt about it, & he's probably going to command around $20M AAV as a FA. I could easily see him getting 5 years from some club; I just hope beyond hope that it's not the Brewers. I don't want to see them paying him a payroll-crippling amount in the future for how well he used to be able to hit. I'd much rather see this kind of money spent on more in-house extensions down the road/used to improve the scouting staff/etc.

[RockCoCougars]

Frankly, I'm not so sure that Hamilton is preferable to Gomez at this point. Gomez is much younger and an ace defender in center, while Hamilton projects as a corner OF or a 1B moving forward. I'd rather explore signing Gomez to an extension for a fraction of what Hamilton will get, and then use the surplus money to fill out the pitching staff.... or you might be able to lock both Gomez and Hart up for what Hamilton would cost alone.

[DHonks]

I would prefer a bat to a pitcher. Wolf and Ben McDonald have been our best successes with free agent pitchers. If we sign no pitchers, or if they are guys that fall to us in late January, then I think we could fit Hamilton in our budget. I'd definitely stick him in RF. 130 games of him in RF opens up 32 games for Gamel. That's likely better than Aoki/Gamel in RF over the season.

[MNBrew]

From my perspective there are a large number of posters on this site who would prefer Melvin to do nothing this winter so a couple of pitchers with a mid 4 ERA in AAA along with a journeyman who was dumped by the Nationals can be given every rotation spot behind Gallardo. There seems to be a large number of Brewer fans who were upset by our late season surge because it prevented an all our rebuild like they desperately wanted.

 

What an ignorant post. I mean, first of all, the guys with the "mid 4 ERA" in AAA, namely Peralta and Rogers, both have top of the rotation potential.

 

...[etc., etc., etc.,]...

 

And I'll admit it. I wouldn't have been all that upset with the Brewers finishing with a top ten pick in the draft. They still desperately need talented prospects to bolster their below average farm system. It was nice watching them do well in September but in the end it didn't accomplish all that much.

 

A couple thoughts:

 

Sidetrack points, thought #1: As a pretty thorough reader here, while I'm not debating at all the depth of thought behind the suggestions, it's not off the mark at all to generalize that there were abundant posts on BF.net around the trade deadline suggesting that the Brewers would've been best served trading off some-to-most-to-all proven/productive/expensive "non-Braun/Weeks/Lucroy-type" assets for young prospects.

 

Sidetrack points, thought #2: On your last point, I believe that the Brewers doing well in September actually did accomplish something very positive, which was allowing the Brewers to see how many of their young players could cut it when getting regular MLB playing time. The fact that overall they did so well served to help justify counting on more of those young guys as regular 2013 contributors with some depth of performance behind that confidence (though of course there remain several uncertainties since Fiers slumped, Rogers was shut down, & Peralta got a little hurt at the end.) That had to happen at some point. While it may have cost them top-10-pick status, it also represented significant steps toward clarifying what their needs more truly are this off-season, which should lead to more selective or "refined" investing and quite possibly fewer SPs acquired than might've been the case without all that September PT for the young guys.

 

On-topic thought #1: I still agree that there is plenty that's intriguing about the prospect of Josh Hamilton as a Brewer, and there would be plenty of ways to make Hamilton-to-MIL a reality without likely crippling the 2013 team. However, my prevailing thought at this point is that the offense is generally in pretty good shape but the need for better pitching is quite glaring, most especially the bullpen, so that has to be the top priority. Managing to make wise pitching moves this winter without breaking the bank will then leave Melvin & Co. the flexibility to make more moves as needed later.

 

On-topic thought #1a: TC07 makes good points about the performance/value factors and the right ingredients, so to speak, to enable long-term organizational success: Balance the right long-term "core player" investments with a deep & steady stream of high-quality prospects. Do it right and you can sustain long-term competitiveness (see: Detroit Red Wings, past 20 years & Atlanta Braves, 19991-2004). I believe Melvin understands that perfectly -- and he gets it far better than many of us want to give him credit for. He just sees the balance of competitiveness and with the investment-vs.-organizational depth at a different point than many here do. . . . And I'd also posit that the nature of this beast is such that if he did things exactly the way many on here have been calling for him to, he'd still be criticized soundly by countless posters any time things weren't going well on the field . . . in other words, the "glass is half-empty" view many have of Melvin would still be the same.

[clancyphile]

I would prefer a bat to a pitcher. Wolf and Ben McDonald have been our best successes with free agent pitchers. If we sign no pitchers, or if they are guys that fall to us in late January, then I think we could fit Hamilton in our budget. I'd definitely stick him in RF. 130 games of him in RF opens up 32 games for Gamel. That's likely better than Aoki/Gamel in RF over the season.

 

I'd agree. Plus, it isn't just signing Hamilton - it's what the Crew gets when they deal Gomez.

 

If you assume a Braun-Aoki-Hamilton outfield, with an infield of A-Ram, Segura, Weeks, and Hart, and Lucroy/Maldonado behind the plate, there's nowhere for Gomez to play.

 

Gomez can anchor a package for a starting pitcher - someone like a young Shaun Marcum (and I would not be opposed to re-signing Marcum for 3 years and $18 million). If the Crew adds Gamel to the package, it might get a good pitcher. Fiers, Rogers, and Peralta did well in 2012, but there are some real questions about them:

 

1. Is the real Fiers the one who dominated early, or is he the one who struggled down the stretch?

2. Will Rogers stay healthy, or will the arm troubles that nearly derailed his professional career return?

3. Is Peralta for real, or will he fizzle as Manny Parra apparently has?

 

Now, the ideal off-season would be seeing the Crew get Hamilton AND bringing Greinke back, then dealing a Gomez-Gamel package for two or three relievers. If that were to happen, it would just be awesome...

[clancyphile]

A couple thoughts:

 

Sidetrack points, thought #1: As a pretty thorough reader here, while I'm not debating at all the depth of thought behind the suggestions, it's not off the mark at all to generalize that there were abundant posts on BF.net around the trade deadline suggesting that the Brewers would've been best served trading off some-to-most-to-all proven/productive/expensive "non-Braun/Weeks/Lucroy-type" assets for young prospects.

 

Sidetrack points, thought #2: On your last point, I believe that the Brewers doing well in September actually did accomplish something very positive, which was allowing the Brewers to see how many of their young players could cut it when getting regular MLB playing time. The fact that overall they did so well served to help justify counting on more of those young guys as regular 2013 contributors with some depth of performance behind that confidence (though of course there remain several uncertainties since Fiers slumped, Rogers was shut down, & Peralta got a little hurt at the end.) That had to happen at some point. While it may have cost them top-10-pick status, it also represented significant steps toward clarifying what their needs more truly are this off-season, which should lead to more selective or "refined" investing and quite possibly fewer SPs acquired than might've been the case without all that September PT for the young guys.

 

On-topic thought #1: I still agree that there is plenty that's intriguing about the prospect of Josh Hamilton as a Brewer, and there would be plenty of ways to make Hamilton-to-MIL a reality without likely crippling the 2013 team. However, my prevailing thought at this point is that the offense is generally in pretty good shape but the need for better pitching is quite glaring, most especially the bullpen, so that has to be the top priority. Managing to make wise pitching moves this winter without breaking the bank will then leave Melvin & Co. the flexibility to make more moves as needed later.

 

On-topic thought #1a: TC07 makes good points about the performance/value factors and the right ingredients, so to speak, to enable long-term organizational success: Balance the right long-term "core player" investments with a deep & steady stream of high-quality prospects. Do it right and you can sustain long-term competitiveness (see: Detroit Red Wings, past 20 years & Atlanta Braves, 19991-2004). I believe Melvin understands that perfectly -- and he gets it far better than many of us want to give him credit for. He just sees the balance of competitiveness and with the investment-vs.-organizational depth at a different point than many here do. . . . And I'd also posit that the nature of this beast is such that if he did things exactly the way many on here have been calling for him to, he'd still be criticized soundly by countless posters any time things weren't going well on the field . . . in other words, the "glass is half-empty" view many have of Melvin would still be the same.

 

Sidetrack #1: I tend to agree with you there. It goes to show that it's never over until it's over.

 

Sidetrack #2: Certainly, this thought makes an argument for giving folks like Taylor Green and Mat Gamel another shot to see if regular playing time is the missing ingredient in their success. That said while I think Peralta and Thronburg are hopes for the future, and that Fiers and Rogers showed something, there still are some questions. Will Peralta and Thornburg end up like Gallardo, key parts of a future rotation, or like Manny Parra, a bright prospect who fizzled out in the majors? Is the real Tom Fiers the one who dominated early, or the one who struggled down the stretch? Is Mark Rogers going to stay healthy, or will he have another arm injury?

 

On-Topic thought one: I agree that there are ways to make Josh Hamilton work, and in a fashion that wouldn't cripple the team financially in 2013-2017. Furthermore, I think Hamilton isn't a "normal" case for most free agents, given his past. While most of the time, we'd write him off as easily headed to a big-market team like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, or even the Nationals, this time, it may be different, given his personal history. When you have the chance to get a change to add a bat that has averaged a .913 OPS over the last five years, and .952 over the last three, and you can tame it up with a bat that had averaged a .933 OPS over the last five years, and .947 over the last three - I think Melvin should look into it. A lineup with Weeks, Braun, Hamilton, A-Ram, Hart, and Lucroy in the two through seven spots would be good for the Crew.

 

On topic thought 1A: I agree that the best move is to lock in a good core of superstars, and to develop the rest through the minors. But sometimes, remaining flexible is a good thing. The Greinke trade was one instance where the flexibility paid off for the Crew. And I am sure that Gomez and Gamel could be flipped for some help in the bullpen. I'm sure that Melvin would be hammered no matter which way he moves. What is the worst case of looking into Hamilton? He goes to another NL Central team and puts up years like he has for the last three, and the Crew faces him.

 

Edit: If HiandTight is right with his number-crunching about the TV deals, then there maybe room to make a run for Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, or both. With K-Rod and Wolf off the books, the Crew should be able to make a competitive offer to Hamilton.

[joepepsi]

Hamilton seems to me the type of player who ends up in St. Louis or SanFran. They can outbid the Brewers and have the cash to compete every season. For a 31 year old, the guarantee of playing with an annual competitor is alluring.

[clancyphile]

Hamilton seems to me the type of player who ends up in St. Louis or SanFran. They can outbid the Brewers and have the cash to compete every season. For a 31 year old, the guarantee of playing with an annual competitor is alluring.

 

Hamilton to St. Louis is a disaster.

[Bnowell4evr]

Hamilton seems to me the type of player who ends up in St. Louis or SanFran. They can outbid the Brewers and have the cash to compete every season. For a 31 year old, the guarantee of playing with an annual competitor is alluring.

 

Hamilton to St. Louis is a disaster.

 

I know they're stadium is named after Beer! How could a guy suffering alcohol addiction go to a city like that? Its a disaster waiting to happen!

[clancyphile]

Hamilton seems to me the type of player who ends up in St. Louis or SanFran. They can outbid the Brewers and have the cash to compete every season. For a 31 year old, the guarantee of playing with an annual competitor is alluring.

 

Hamilton to St. Louis is a disaster.

 

I know they're stadium is named after Beer! How could a guy suffering alcohol addiction go to a city like that? Its a disaster waiting to happen!

 

Yeah, the Cards getting Hamilton is a GOOD thing for the Brewers.

 

Hamilton averaged a .913 OPS over the last five years. What jersey do you want Hamilton wearing, Brewers or Cards?

[Invader3K]

I'm convinced Milwaukee is being used as the hot new free agent buildup team. His agent is probably pushing this idea to guys like Heyman and Olney. That's the only real logical explanation.

[nate82]

Assuming the Brewers sign Hamilton there is a lot of injury risk concerns with that team. Hart, Braun, Weeks, Ramirez, and Hamilton are all rather high injury risk concerns. Now add in Lucroy who plays catcher and you have another player who is going to be injured off and on.

 

The biggest concern for the Brewers is what happens when you have two or three of Hart, Braun, Weeks, Ramirez or Hamilton injured? At 2B you have Bianchi and Gennett as your top two options while at LF you have Schafer, Davis, Gamel and Gindl?

 

I just don't see the point of adding Hamilton as he is a rather high injury concern plus if you sign him you almost have to either trade Weeks and Gomez or Hart. Now Weeks doesn't have all that much trade value right now and you would not be getting much in return for him while Gomez has a positive trade value. Hart is probably the player the Brewers decide to trade away and I believe then the Brewers would have to sign Hamilton to play 1B and I am not sure he would want to do that. Trading Hart or Gomez may actually be a good idea for the Brewers but I just don't like the signing of Hamilton as he is a rather high injury risk concern with a team that has a rather high injury risk already.

 

I don't see the Cardinals going after Hamilton as they have nowhere to play him. If the Cardinals don't have room for Berkman why would they have room for Hamilton? Yes I know Hamilton is a better player than Berkman but Craig is someone who is cheaper and can almost bring you as much production as Hamilton can. I just don't see the Cardinals as a fit here and the same with the Reds, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, and some other teams.

 

I believe there are only a few teams that are going to be in on Hamilton. The teams that I see going after Hamilton are the Brewers (I don't like it), Rangers, and possibly the Red Sox. I believe like Fielder last year the market is rather small for Hamilton though there maybe a team that comes out of no where and surprises everyone and makes a huge offer to Hamilton but I am not sure there is a team like the Tigers this coming off season. I believe the Brewers will do the 5-years $100m offer to Hamilton and the Rangers will walk away. The Brewers may actually be the team that lands Hamilton and they maybe bidding against themselves in this situation.