Speaking of Josh Hamilton (somebody had to) [Latest… Melvin: We have the connection with Narron but not with US Bank… post 230]

[chadomac]

Don't want him at all. He has too much baggage, I doubt he's as good over the next five years as he was the last five, and he's a little injury-prone...which will only get worse with age.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would sign Hamilton for 5/$125 in a heartbeat.

In your post on the MLB forum (the 'young pitchers thread' iirc), you noted that you don't believe Greinke at ~$23M will be an investment where the return will match. I don't disagree with that.

 

However, to then state that you would have zero hesitation about giving Hamilton comparable money, and imply that the team would get good return to match the value of the contract, seems odd. I don't think Hamilton isn't a good hitter, but his unreal performance in 2010 imo elevates expectations for him.

 

His career .914 OPS seems like an accurate guesstimate as to what you'll get out of him at this point, and his avg. # of games played/season is just 123 (and that's with assuming 150 games for '12). He's not at all what I would describe as a good bet to provide production equivalent to $25M/yr.

 

I really don't have a major beef with the idea of signing Hamilton, it's more that you dismissed Greinke out of hand as being unlikely to match $25M/yr. with production, and then have no doubts about the injury-prone, addiction-demon-battling Hamilton, who will enter his age-32 season in 2013. This post isn't meant as COMEATMEBRO, but I'm genuinely curious to hear why you wouldn't want to see Greinke given $25M/yr., but would have zero problem with paying that to Hamilton.

[monty57]

The new league-wide infusion of cash could get scary. Players with "warts" are going to get long, expensive contracts which I think a lot of teams are going to be begging to get out from under in a few years. The Brewers (and many other teams) are in the precarious position of not wanting to get left behind, while also needing to show some kind of fiscal responsibility. I hope they err on the side of fiscal responsibility, as that's easier to fix if you're wrong.

[adambr2]

I would sign Hamilton for 5/$125 in a heartbeat.

In your post on the MLB forum (the 'young pitchers thread' iirc), you noted that you don't believe Greinke at ~$23M will be an investment where the return will match. I don't disagree with that.

 

However, to then state that you would have zero hesitation about giving Hamilton comparable money, and imply that the team would get good return to match the value of the contract, seems odd. I don't think Hamilton isn't a good hitter, but his unreal performance in 2010 imo elevates expectations for him.

 

His career .914 OPS seems like an accurate guesstimate as to what you'll get out of him at this point, and his avg. # of games played/season is just 123 (and that's with assuming 150 games for '12). He's not at all what I would describe as a good bet to provide production equivalent to $25M/yr.

 

I really don't have a major beef with the idea of signing Hamilton, it's more that you dismissed Greinke out of hand as being unlikely to match $25M/yr. with production, and then have no doubts about the injury-prone, addiction-demon-battling Hamilton, who will enter his age-32 season in 2013. This post isn't meant as COMEATMEBRO, but I'm genuinely curious to hear why you wouldn't want to see Greinke given $25M/yr., but would have zero problem with paying that to Hamilton.

 

Fair question. My first answer would be to say that I think Greinke is a bit (gasp) overrated. When you look at some of the elite pitchers of today and the last 10 years (Santana, Halladay, Cain, Lincecum, King Felix, etc), I don't think Greinke is quite there. I think he's on that next tier. Furthermore, even though I think the "pressure" knock on him is a little overblown, I am skeptical on his ability to not be psychologically affected by pitching in an extreme pressure situation like the playoffs. And if we can't be sure he can perform at his peak then, why even sign him? Just get guys that can get us there.

 

I also think that over the course of an entire season, elite position players end up being a bit more valuable than elite starting pitchers, and elite starting pitchers have a higher risk of injury, even given Hamilton's situation.

 

Is it a risk? Yes, but these types of players are usually signed well into their 30's. Braun is signed until he's 37, Prince until he's 36. He comes with some baggage, but in the right kind of environment, he has a chance to be one of the elite players in the league like he was in 2010.

 

I guess I'd be more comfortable with 4/$90 or 4/$100, but 5/$125 wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hamilton can't make it through a full season without getting hurt. Combine that with he's just leaving his prime and can't DH in the NL and I can't see any reason for the Brewers to sign him unless it's a MAJOR discount or a one or two year deal.

[TURBO]

I want zero part of Hamilton, period.

 

That money can be spent in a lot of places, and an aging, often hurt, baggage bearing guy like Hamilton would be a poor move in my opinion.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess I'd be more comfortable with 4/$90 or 4/$100, but 5/$125 wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.

Appreciate the reply. Honestly, the main thing I realized in reading through your posts on Greinke & Hamilton (in that order) was that I really don't want to see the Brewers spend big FA money on any player. Obviously the Braun and Luc/Weeks/Gallardo type contracts are good ideas, but imo in free agency Melvin's better off sticking to guys on relatively low contracts. Finding production like Ramirez's on affordable contracts is what any GM in Milwaukee will have to be adept at doing to 'win' in FA.

 

I love the idea of adding a bat like Hamilton's to the lineup, but I don't think he's worth what he'll likely command on the FA market.

[danzig6767]

I guess I'd be more comfortable with 4/$90 or 4/$100, but 5/$125 wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.

Appreciate the reply. Honestly, the main thing I realized in reading through your posts on Greinke & Hamilton (in that order) was that I really don't want to see the Brewers spend big FA money on any player. Obviously the Braun and Luc/Weeks/Gallardo type contracts are good ideas, but imo in free agency Melvin's better off sticking to guys on relatively low contracts. Finding production like Ramirez's on affordable contracts is what any GM in Milwaukee will have to be adept at doing to 'win' in FA.

 

I love the idea of adding a bat like Hamilton's to the lineup, but I don't think he's worth what he'll likely command on the FA market.

 

Yea, Melvin got flack from some on this forum when he signed Ramirez, but the only risk IMO was mainly in Aramis declining to where year three of the deal has him being overpaid. In the end though, even if that comes to fruition, it's not some franchise crippling situation.

 

Handing out 100 plus million to a player though and that not working out well would be pretty devastating to any franchise with fairly limited funds. Contracts of that size need to be handed out with extreme caution by franchises who can't just print money as some big markets can.

[monty57]

Yea, Melvin got flack from some on this forum when he signed Ramirez, but the only risk IMO was mainly in Aramis declining to where year three of the deal has him being overpaid.

 

In year three of the contract, he will be roughly the age Lance Berkman is now and we'll be paying him $20MM plus a buyout. I hope it's just "declining to where he's overpaid," and we're not watching a guy sitting on the DL all year collecting his pay before retiring after he gets his buyout. If he is still a .800 OPS guy at age 36, the deal will have been well worth it, but there was a lot of risk with the signing. I'd prefer not risking 20% of payroll on a 36-year-old, always-good-but-never-great player.

 

My first answer would be to say that I think Greinke is a bit (gasp) overrated.

 

Just slightly. Some seem to think he rips off his shirt to show off an emblazoned "S" which automatically vaults his team to the playoffs. He's good, but I agree he's not elite. He's seemingly defied statisitcal odds for his career, putting up numbers the "stat guys" love, but the end results don't seem to add up to the sum of all the parts.

 

I love the idea of adding a bat like Hamilton's to the lineup, but I don't think he's worth what he'll likely command on the FA market.

 

That sums up my feelings on Greinke and Hamilton. I'm happy we have Braun for his career. I would worry if we had to dish out $40MM for two guys in a season, so I'd rather build a core around Braun with Lucroy-type extensions. Every time we get told that we can't survive without {insert star player name here}, we learn that we can. I for one was glad we didn't sign Greinke to the (allegedly) offered extension and instead traded him for a high-upside return. If we are able to work our way into the playoffs after making the trade... well, that would be about a perfect scenario.

[danzig6767]

Yea, Melvin got flack from some on this forum when he signed Ramirez, but the only risk IMO was mainly in Aramis declining to where year three of the deal has him being overpaid.

 

In year three of the contract, he will be roughly the age Lance Berkman is now and we'll be paying him $20MM plus a buyout. I hope it's just "declining to where he's overpaid," and we're not watching a guy sitting on the DL all year collecting his pay before retiring after he gets his buyout. If he is still a .800 OPS guy at age 36, the deal will have been well worth it, but there was a lot of risk with the signing. I'd prefer not risking 20% of payroll on a 36-year-old, always-good-but-never-great player.

 

You can't just view the contract that way. It also has to be factored in that the team got Ramirez at a 6 million dollar bargain this season and if he produces well again next year, he'll have out-performed his 10 million dollar salary. So sure it would suck if Aramis declines noticeably in 2014 while getting 16 million, but it can't be ignored how he performed in 2012/2013 in relation to his salary. The signing should be viewed based on the totality of how Ramirez performed over all three seasons in relation to his overall compensation.

[TheCrew07]

The signing should be viewed based on the totality of how Ramirez performed over all three seasons in relation to his overall compensation.

 

Unfortunately with a backloaded contract it's not that simple. It would be nice if we could average out the dollars and make it $12 mil per year but we can't because he'd be movable with a $12 mil contract if he underperformed but he's not with $20 million in total compensation (with the mutual option & buyout) with $6 mil of the original $16 million in salary deferred. We're basically stuck hoping that he's able to perform at a high level for the next 2 seasons.

 

He carries significant risk and for some reason I find deferred money contracts extremely irritating. Hopefully he's healthy for the duration of the contract and if so it seems unlikely he falls off a cliff, but all it would take is 1 bad slide and he's needing shoulder surgery again. We don't have a legit 3B prospect close to MLB ready anyway, so it's not like there's a pressing need to move him now, but I would have liked to get out from under that 3rd year at the trade deadline for a reasonable prospect package. To be honest, I was hoping for Olt in return for Greinke though I didn't think Texas would be willing to part with him which would have landed another excellent corner IF prospect. However Texas is doing to Olt what the Brewers did with Gamel, and not so surprisingly getting a similar result.

 

Once again most FA contracts haven't ended all that well or been productive for the duration of the contract for Melvin in his tenure with the Brewers, or for the Brewers in general. People will excuse away Wolf's contract because his first 2 years were excellent, but the 3rd year was basically $9.5 million of dead money, $11 mil with the buyout which is a complete waste. Sooner or later one of these guys will pan out for the duration of the contract but I would have rather not taken a chance with such a backloaded deal on player in his mid 30s.

 

Honestly if we can't afford a player straight up, I'd rather just move on rather than do the deferred money thing or backload the deal, especially since those contracts are typically going to guys who are normally going be in their early to mid 30s.

 

He's certainly been productive and outplayed his contract in his first season, but that's pretty easy to do given how little he made this year. However, I'm unwilling to project him to stay healthy and effective next year or the year after. Similarly, there's no way I'd project Braun to be relatively healthy for the duration of his deal, he'll likely suffer a major injury and miss significant time at some point, and I would expect it to happen through this same time frame we have Ramirez signed for. It has nothing to do with Ramirez or Braun personally, it's just the nature of the majority of aging athletes.

 

However, if Ramirez does stay healthy it wouldn't surprise me if the the Brewers pick up his option for 2015 as well and roll the dice for one more season.

[logan82]

Ramirez' contract is whatever we think we can trade. We can always pick up part of the contract to make it more palatable to the trading team. I still don't like his contract.

[faede]

Seriously? Ramirez still cant catch a break around here?

 

Deferred or not, aramis is the best free agent signing in the league right now. His value by fangraphs is in the 24mil range and he is in the team picture for nl mvp.

 

The guy is great for us at a black hole type position of need for the crew.

 

He doesnt kill our payroll flexibility and I doubt even in the backload year it will either. Hart comes off the books and it appears we will have young and cheap as a replacement as well as in our starting pitcher corps.

 

Historically, a position player that has been so consistently good over the years doesnt fall off as quickly as a starter when the decline happens.

 

We got amazing value this year, should get solid value the next and would probabaly break even (or close) in year three. I, for one, cannot be more happy with Aramis Ramirez!!!

[jerichoholicninja]

Seriously? Ramirez still cant catch a break around here?

 

Deferred or not, aramis is the best free agent signing in the league right now. His value by fangraphs is in the 24mil range and he is in the team picture for nl mvp.

 

The guy is great for us at a black hole type position of need for the crew.

 

He doesnt kill our payroll flexibility and I doubt even in the backload year it will either. Hart comes off the books and it appears we will have young and cheap as a replacement as well as in our starting pitcher corps.

 

Historically, a position player that has been so consistently good over the years doesnt fall off as quickly as a starter when the decline happens.

 

We got amazing value this year, should get solid value the next and would probabaly break even (or close) in year three. I, for one, cannot be more happy with Aramis Ramirez!!!

 

I totally agree with us.

 

Some posters here have the small market mentally so engrained in their minds that a player playing at or above what he's being paid is still a bad contract because he's making over 10 million and is signed for more than one year.

[monty57]

Seriously? Ramirez still cant catch a break around here?

 

Barring injury, I pretty much expected Ramirez to do what he's done this year, except I expected worse defense. I said that when the deal was signed. I just don't like the final year of the deal, and I don't like that the team signed a back-end-loaded deal because they couldn't afford to pay him this year. It's irresponsible to spend when you don't have money, and Melvin was basically saying he'll pay the piper in two years in order to win today.

 

The signing should be viewed based on the totality of how Ramirez performed over all three seasons in relation to his overall compensation.

 

I'll be glad to eat crow in two years if he's pushing us to a playoff bid, but my guess is that many fans will be calling for his head. You don't have to look at a contract over it's entirity, you can simply sign the player to a shorter contract to reduce the risk. Of course, we couldn't do that with Ramirez because Melvin was out of payroll room, so he took on a lot of additional risk and mortgaged some of the future to win now. Maybe it'll be worth it if we make the playoffs this season. If we miss the playoffs this year, then what value was a good 2012 by Ramirez if he and his contract are a reason we don't make the playoffs in two years?

[danzig6767]

The signing should be viewed based on the totality of how Ramirez performed over all three seasons in relation to his overall compensation.

 

I'll be glad to eat crow in two years if he's pushing us to a playoff bid, but my guess is that many fans will be calling for his head. You don't have to look at a contract over it's entirity, you can simply sign the player to a shorter contract to reduce the risk. Of course, we couldn't do that with Ramirez because Melvin was out of payroll room, so he took on a lot of additional risk and mortgaged some of the future to win now. Maybe it'll be worth it if we make the playoffs this season. If we miss the playoffs this year, then what value was a good 2012 by Ramirez if he and his contract are a reason we don't make the playoffs in two years?

 

First of all, i highly doubt that Ramirez would have taken a shorter deal unless the Brewers would have paid him 30 plus million over two seasons instead of three, which would be dumb. Aramis and his agent very likely were looking for a certain dollar amount as total compensation from whoever he signed with.

 

As for what value will he have brought if the team ends up missing out on the playoffs, you and others will i'm sure disagree with me here, but i place value on competing for a playoff berth in baseball, even if the team falls short. Football is my favorite sport, but for me baseball is unique because of the 162 game schedule. Teams play pretty much everyday.

 

So there is nothing like baseball IMO when a team you cheer for is in a playoff race. Every night/day that team plays and the game feels important. That's great entertainment value for me at least. What sucked so much about most of those 20 years pre-Melvin and Attanasio was the lack of hope and entertainment value, even before a season started. As a fan, i knew most of those teams had no realistic shot at all to compete for a playoff berth. Thus, by say only 30-50 games into a season, i'd already be bored by watching the Brewers because there was no nervous tension over winning or losing the game that night.

 

Well, this season like the last 3-4 years, pretty much all of the games have felt important because we actually had solid to good teams. Potential playoff berths were actually realistic. These last 30 games or so have been great fun to watch and the last 16 games could end up being tension filled fun also. I love that as a sports fan and it's why i watch sports. These last 45ish games wouldn't have had that fun/entertainment value without Ramirez and his production. Some fans may view any season where the team misses the playoffs as the same, regardless if they finish 2-3 games from a playoff berth or 20 games short. I don't.

[monty57]

First of all, i highly doubt that Ramirez would have taken a shorter deal unless the Brewers would have paid him 30 plus million over two seasons instead of three, which would be dumb.

 

Hard to say what it would've taken to get him for two seasons, as the Brewers and Angels were the only teams after him. The problem is that we had to sign him to the deal we did because Melvin does not believe in financial flexibility. We were locked into a lot of contracts and the number crunchers wouldn't allow him to pay more than $6MM this year, so he had to get creative, which could hurt us in the future.

 

As for what value will he have brought if the team ends up missing out on the playoffs, you and others will i'm sure disagree with me here, but i place value on competing for a playoff berth in baseball, even if the team falls short.

 

No, I agree with you that there is value in playing competitive ball. However, I would be interested in seeing the ratings the 2012 Brewers get vs previous years, as I think half of the fans lost interest long ago and probably don't even know they're in the playoff hunt, which negates the monetary value of being in a playoff run. Therefore, the "die hards" who would watch the Brewers even during 100-loss seasons are getting to see more exciting ball than we thought a months or so ago, but the Brewers really get no gain from it unless they make the playoffs.

 

Also, we will never know the "what ifs" that could have been if we hadn't spent the money (economists would call this the opportunity cost). I don't want to get into off-the-wall "what if" scenarios, but it is reasonable to believe that we could be better next year and certainly in two years without Ramirez and his contract on the books. I hope he plays well and makes it all worthwhile, but I'm not going to change my stance because he put up numbers I expected him to put up in year one of the deal. He's pretty untradeable now so if he tanks in year three, we will have a very hard time putting together a winning team. If we "eat" his contract in order to trade him, then we will also have a hard time fielding a winning team. The Brewers just can't have a useless $20MM on the payroll, so I really hope he stays healthy and productive through his age 36 season.

[danzig6767]

Hard to say what it would've taken to get him for two seasons, as the Brewers and Angels were the only teams after him. The problem is that we had to sign him to the deal we did because Melvin does not believe in financial flexibility. We were locked into a lot of contracts and the number crunchers wouldn't allow him to pay more than $6MM this year, so he had to get creative, which could hurt us in the future.

 

First of all, look at the contracts currently on the books. Only Ramirez is an older player tied into a multi-year deal. It's not as if Melvin has locked up a bunch of 30-plus year old vets to big contracts. In fact, i don't see a single player on the roster that Melvin would struggle badly to trade this offseason if he wanted to because of a bad contract which scares most other teams. Besides that, you're being naive if you think it's just Doug who has wanted to take a win now path towards roster building. Watching Attanasio the last 3-4 years, it's pretty clear to me that he is a win now type of owner unless he feels almost all hope for a competitive team isn't likely. Mark really likes winning and especially likes seeing 3 million fans keep filling Miller Park.

 

No, I agree with you that there is value in playing competitive ball. However, I would be interested in seeing the ratings the 2012 Brewers get vs previous years, as I think half of the fans lost interest long ago and probably don't even know they're in the playoff hunt, which negates the monetary value of being in a playoff run. Therefore, the "die hards" who would watch the Brewers even during 100-loss seasons are getting to see more exciting ball than we thought a months or so ago, but the Brewers really get no gain from it unless they make the playoffs.

 

The Brewers will draw close to 3 million fans again this year and they've been drawing 30-35 thousand during this run. As for ratings, i can only speak for myself and a few buddies of mine who are Brewers fans. We are all old enough to remember the dark days of about 20 straight years where the Brewers were buried in the standings most years by June or July at the latest, we didn't keep watching and apathy was extremely high. Over the last 3-4 years though, my good friends and i have not only watched the vast majority of games and attended many in person, we've actually cared a lot about the team. Bought Brewers gear. Talk about the team instead of just the Packers. Really look forward to big games starting, like i look forward to the game tonight. Don't underestimate just how important that has been in reviving the love for the Brewers baseball in Milwaukee.

 

Also, we will never know the "what ifs" that could have been if we hadn't spent the money (economists would call this the opportunity cost). I don't want to get into off-the-wall "what if" scenarios, but it is reasonable to believe that we could be better next year and certainly in two years without Ramirez and his contract on the books.

 

Unless Ramirez surprisingly falls off a cliff next year, i find it very unlikely that he won't earn his 10 million next season. Maybe in 2014 he declines to where he's overpaid to significantly overpaid, time will tell and if so to what degree. Even in a situation like that, it's only one year, not multiple years. Plus, if he is productive next season as i expect and come 2014 the team feels it needs his 16 million dollar salary elsewhere, i really doubt that Melvin would struggle to move Ramirez's contract since it would only be for one season. Given all of the new big cable TV deals, lots of teams are swimming in cash and an only one year deal at 16 million won't scare good teams looking for a bat.

[TURBO]

Seriously? Ramirez still cant catch a break around here?

 

Deferred or not, aramis is the best free agent signing in the league right now. His value by fangraphs is in the 24mil range and he is in the team picture for nl mvp.

 

The guy is great for us at a black hole type position of need for the crew.

 

He doesnt kill our payroll flexibility and I doubt even in the backload year it will either. Hart comes off the books and it appears we will have young and cheap as a replacement as well as in our starting pitcher corps.

 

Historically, a position player that has been so consistently good over the years doesnt fall off as quickly as a starter when the decline happens.

 

We got amazing value this year, should get solid value the next and would probabaly break even (or close) in year three. I, for one, cannot be more happy with Aramis Ramirez!!!

 

Yup, yes, true, 100% agree!

[StearnsFTW]

I would prefer Edwin Jackson, but Hamilton at 5/115 wouldn't bother me. And I really don't think he'll get more than that.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Uh oh, it begins again. This time it's Buster Olney, who is a lot more credible. He says it'll only be if no one overpays him, and he basically falls in our laps. But that would mean we'd be the ones taking the risk, which terrifies me. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8511345/milwaukee-brewers-lot-offer-josh-hamilton-mlb

[Invader3K]

It's so stupid. He's going to be 32 next year. There's no way the Brewers should be looking at him.

[Dragonbait]

Not an insider so couldn't read past first paragraph, but the comments section made me laugh a lot.

[rwa12]

Basically, he said that the atmosphere of Milwaukee, added to the presence of the Narrons would make us a front runner. He adds the caveat that Milwaukee is only in play if no one makes him a monster offer. That they would be in play at a reasonable price, assuming they don't chase overpriced pitching.

[TURBO]

Talk about a franchise crippling move.

 

Just say NO to hamilton please!