Speaking of Josh Hamilton (somebody had to) [Latest… Melvin: We have the connection with Narron but not with US Bank… post 230]

[TooLiveBrew]

The idea that the Brewers could compete in the FA bidding for Hamilton just isn't realistic in any way.

[DHonks]

Well, we could move Weeks and Hart, clearing up about $20 million for next year. Of course right now I'd try to lock up Marcum for 5 years and $70 million since he's back

[TooLiveBrew]

Josh Hamilton is the type of FA that all of the huge market teams get in on. A once-in-a-decade (at least) type of bat, and he'd be a good fit for just about any of them. The Brewers don't have the kind of money to match what this bidding is going to reach. Durability concerns won't be enough to hold the price down. His talent trumps all.

[crewcrazy]

Oh, I bet a 40 year old Josh Hamilton could handle playing 1B

Hamilton is going to break down completely long before 40. He's a walking injury.

 

Given what Hamilton's done to his body, I'd be surprised if he's still in the league at 40...he's much more likely to break down for good before then. It could still happen, of course, but I can't see anyone willing to guarantee him years to age 40. If you figure he'll get 6 years on the FA market this year, that would cover his age 32-37 seasons. If he's still capable of hitting after that, I could see a series of one-year deals to DH.

[HiAndTight]

Can he play SS?

 

Someone will pay him 20M a year, he's averaged something like 110 games per year for his career. I'd rather the Brewers spend that money on Greinke.

 

 

 

Well, I don't really care that he plays 110 games a season. He certainly has proven that he's just an extremely valuable player. A guy that can put up ridiculous numbers. He's at 3.1 WAR this year already.

 

So it's not because of how often he plays. He wins games for you when he does, and our OF depth argues for signing him than against IMO. You have protection. Heck, you move Hart to 1st and you have the same lineup you've had in the last 3-4+ years.

 

And...you have the same pitching. That hasn't worked. I think if we fail to sign Greinke, the Brewers will be in purgatory for the next several years. Right where the Bucks are right now. There are only two great draft picks, the first and the last(it's slightly difference with baseball, but...same idea). You're either trying to win it all or you're looking to rebuild and set back up to win it all.

 

During which time our attendance will likely slip, payroll drop and we'll slowly sink further down. If we sign Greinke, we hit on just a couple of our pitchers, Thornburg, Peralta, Bradley, Jungman...get super lucky and get another ace out of there and maybe a 3 cheap for 6 years, a decent SS in free agency or trade and we're still set up to win moving forward with high attendance and our TV money.

 

I just don't think Hamilton is as safe a bet(which might be the first time I've said that about an OF'ers vs a Pitcher in a long time) for 20 million over the next 5 years. Plus, I think Hamilton is going to get 25 or so million for 6 years, so I think he'll end up way out of our reasonable price range anyway.

[HiAndTight]

I have no doubt at all that a team like the Red Sox, Yankees or Dodgers will absolutely break the bank for him, even with all the risk factors, if that happens

 

This will probably come down to the same situation as Pujols and Fielder. He will end up staying in the AL, because a team will offer him 9-10 years and no NL team will touch that since they don't have the option of moving him to DH later in his career. The Dodgers get thrown in because they were just bought for so much money, but Stan Kasten has been in baseball a long time, and I doubt he'd offer a 30-year old OF a 10 year deal, because as part owner he doesn't want to be paying a 40-year-old pinch hitter $30MM / year in the future.

 

 

I will stake my life savings, my home and everything that I own on the fact that he doesn't get 10 years, and my prediction is he gets 6. Prince got 9 years at 28, not 31 and played every single day(almost literally) his entire career. His missed...off the top of my head, I'd guess less than 15 games in his 6 full years with the Brewers and probably less than 5 or 6 the last 5 years.

 

And Hamilton I DO think will be the exception to the rule. People talk about "what he's done to his body," and he's obviously abused drugs, but there isn't a whole lot of correlation between that and muscle tears or strains which he's struggled with over a short period of time(relatively short) that he was addicted. He just isn't a natural CF'er, and he probably should be a everyday LF'er, shouldn't push his body and try to steal and I think ultimately when he's 40, he'll still be a very good, very solid player.

 

You can list players all you want, but great players tend to stay great longer. And we're talking about 40 being the last year of his deal. A deal I don't think he'll get, but lets assume he does. You sign almost every long term contract with the expectation that you're going to get screwed in the end and you won't get value the last year, even 2-3 years. But you sign it for the up front value.

 

Though...again, I think Hamilton gets 7 years and 175 tops. Injury, age, and drug issues drive it down more tahn I think people are suggesting on here.

[Dollarbill13]

I'm not sure about 10 but I bet he gets 7 or 8 years at probably 25 mill per season (assuming he stays healthy this year). He's a great hitter but signing him would likely mean making major cuts at other positions (ie not signing Greinke, trading Weeks, etc.). As great as they are, I don't think Braun, Hamilton, and a bunch of random dudes are enough to be WS competitors.

[splitterpfj]

I think the Brewers could afford Hamilton, if they absolutely wanted to, and I think Josh may have some interest in playing here.

 

The thing is, Greinke and Marcum are both free agents, and the team will have to make a decision on Wolf's option for next year.

 

Could they pay for Hamilton? Yes, probably. Could they pay for Hamilton without completely blowing up the pitching staff? Probably not.

[HiAndTight]

I'm not sure about 10 but I bet he gets 7 or 8 years at probably 25 mill per season (assuming he stays healthy this year). He's a great hitter but signing him would likely mean making major cuts at other positions (ie not signing Greinke, trading Weeks, etc.). As great as they are, I don't think Braun, Hamilton, and a bunch of random dudes are enough to be WS competitors.

 

 

Ah...you'd need someone to replace Greinke as your ace, then you'd need someone to replace Marcum as your #3. Now do we have guys capable? Hell yeah. Thornburg could be a legit ace for a 3-4 year run IMO, Bradley could be a legit #3. I mean, Nelson could be a legit #3/4 starter if he can keep throwing 94 with sink and raking up some K's.

 

But it's highly unlikely. Between TT, Jungman, Bradley and Peralta, leaving Fiers out for the moment as you know he's not more than a 4 or a 5(could be a great #4 or #5 like Narveson, but he's not in that same group) all of them could be #1's and #2's. But in reality that only exists in fantasy worlds and St. Petersburg if you have Matt Moore, David Price, Hellickson, Nieman, etc..etc...and can afford to have Wade David learn in the pen.

 

I truly believe those 4 and then just behind them Nelson and Brooks Hall, a HUUGE favorite of mine are going to provide the best home grown rotation we've had in a loong time, I just don't think you're going to get TWO guys that you can throw up there against other aces and hope they develop into the type of pitchers that you can feel confident winning with.

 

Realistically you need 3 pitchers right now, 3 dominant ones. Gallardo and Greinke gives us the margin for error that we only have to get lucky and get one of the 6 I've mentioned to develop into that upper echelon type pitcher in the next several years. I think that's entirely likely.

 

THAT is how I think we have a chance to stay competitive and win 90+ games a year over the next several years. Hit on ONE pitcher from the farm and develop our next homegrown ace to put with Greinke and Gallardo. And I keep going back to Thornburg as I think he's got just incredible upside.

 

And then Peralta's obviously already right there and nearly ready. Those four and a Fiers/Narveson when he comes back, or Estrada, whoever potentially make a great-great rotation.

 

So, Hamilton's great, but I have such confidence that Gallardo and Greinke are going to buck the trend and are more likely to stay healthy long term with their deliveries than most any other power pitcher in the game that I'd gladly give Grienke a 5 year 110 million dollar extension and I think that'd be worth every penny. Perhaps a option year for a 6th year at 25 million with a 5 million dollar buyout to make it 5/115 guaranteed if that's what it takes. But Greinke's on the cusp of putting together a Cy Young contending season and if we continue to wait, it's not going to matter.

 

 

While the market is limited to what teams have a spot for Hamilton to play, there is no such limitation for teams when it comes to pitching. Yankees, Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Royals(darkhorse as they DO have money and they'er just bringing up their young studs), Tigers, Jays, Angels, Rangers....there could be easily 10 teams who enter the Greinke bidding. Hell, the O's also have young offensive talent and an owner who constantly tries to make big free agent splashes and comes up short despite throwing money out there. The Phillies with some contracts coming off the books could make a run.

 

The list is a lot shorter than Hamilton. Which is why I wish the Brewers would simply do what it takes to sign Greinke and work the rest out later. They've got 20 million in TV revenue coming after this year and are even besting last years attendance numbers and made quite a bit of money last year.

 

If they come to the conclusion they need to cut salary, even with Wolf, Marcum, K-Rod and several others coming off the books, they've got areas to free up salary...though I hardly think they need to do that with their current revenues which should easily lead to a 110 million dollar payroll.

[HiAndTight]

I think the Brewers could afford Hamilton, if they absolutely wanted to, and I think Josh may have some interest in playing here.

 

The thing is, Greinke and Marcum are both free agents, and the team will have to make a decision on Wolf's option for next year.

 

Could they pay for Hamilton? Yes, probably. Could they pay for Hamilton without completely blowing up the pitching staff? Probably not.

 

 

They might be able to keep Greinke and sign Hamilton and pay for it for 1 year, even 2. But lets say with all the factors we have in our favor. The TV and radio revenue(I've heard the TV would be 20 since the deal was signed several years ago...I have no clue how the new radio renewal impacts our bottom line), the 2 dollar plus average raise in ticket prices, the record setting pace we're on in terms of attendance, and the fact that even spending 94 million last year, we made a substantial amount of money according to forbres. Even with all that, the 20 million and the current attendance and ticket increase tops among them, what's the absolute most we could stretch the payroll? 120? I've been saying 110 for next season for years, but we've done even better financially than I could have dreamed.

 

But you still have to look down the road. I'm in favor of signing Greinke because I PERSONALLY don't believe he will break down. But he's a starting pitcher. Chances are at some point in his career he will. Hamilton is an obvious risk, and with offensive freaks like Hamilton you KNOW you're going to pay an extra year in a best case scenario, two years in a more likely one and three years in a normal situation(Prince should have gotten 6 years, Pujols 6 or 7). What in the world happens if you have Hamilton who breaks down with injuries, Greinke has a Tommy John, and in 4 years you're paying Braun near 15 million and potentially paying 45-50 million for Greinke and Hamilton, two guys who could POTENTIALLY be on the DL?

 

 

The risk to signing Greinke is a calculated one with his easy delivery and the pitchers we have coming up. The risk to signing both is absolute destruction for the Brewers as we put all our eggs in their basket, they get hurt, our team completely folds, our attendance goes from 3-3.5 million to 2 million we're a 65 win team in Braun's prime years and we've dug ourselves a hole that will take years to dig out from.

 

So as fun as it'd be, even if it was realistic to sign Greinke and Hamilton and despite the fact that I do think we could swing it for a year or two or even longer as Weeks, Hart, Wolf, KRod and others come off the payroll, the long term risk is absolutely ruining your franchise and going back to the 60 win days, except this time losing a lot of money.

 

 

 

 

I think Mark A is willing to break even or step a couple steps either way over the red since he's made a few hundred million dollars on the franchise already. I don't think he's going to risk everything to win a WS.

[monty57]

I will stake my life savings, my home and everything that I own on the fact that he doesn't get 10 years,

 

I'm sure the people of Brewerfan.net could find a good charity for those funds if he indeed signs a 10-year deal.

 

I doubt there's ever been a 9-10 year deal which was worth it, but teams still sign them. The extra money from the new TV deals is doing what an increase in money supply without a corresponding move in supply or demand always does, which is increase the price of everything without increasing the value. Teams know they're getting more money, so they're spendinging it (probably foolishly), but the players aren't any better just because they're paid more. All it means is that it takes a much bigger payroll to field the same quality of team.

 

The problem as it pertains to the Brewers is that while their "new money" is projected to be around $20MM, teams like the Angels are getting an additional $130MM. With this new money, salaries are escalating dramatically, and will continue to do so until the "new money" is tied up in contracts, at which point salaries will somewhat stabilize. I can't blame Greinke for walking away from the table with the money that's being thrown around. Some team who knows they're getting a new inflow of revenue will decide that players like Greinke and Hamilton are worth record-breaking or near-record-breaking contracts, which the Brewers should not sign. If there was a time to extend Greinke, it was immediately after they traded for him. Now it seems that he's willing to accept the risk of injury this season for the potential reward of entering free agency.

 

This makes pre-arby players even more valueable, and makes it even more logical to trade away some of the guys who are going to be free agents for young, inexpensive talent if we are down in the standings in a month or so. Stockpile young talent and extend the best of them while they're still in their pre-arby years... those contracts are still team-friendly. Right now a lot of owners and GM's have dollar signs in their eyes from the shiny, new TV deals they're signing, so it might be a good time to trade them expensive players for young, "unproven" talent. Of course, that's just my read on the "baseball market," I could be wrong.

[jerichoholicninja]

If the Brewers couldn't/wouldn't pony up the money and years for Prince and C.C. (two players as good and with MUCH better track records of health), what makes anyone think that they would for Hamilton?

[Invader3K]

If the Brewers couldn't/wouldn't pony up the money and years for Prince and C.C. (two players as good and with MUCH better track records of health), what makes anyone think that they would for Hamilton?

 

Yes, this. Exactly.

 

As far as I can tell, these "rumors" about the Brewers pursuing Josh Hamilton are all based on one purely speculative piece out of Dallas. Nothing more.

[monty57]

If the Brewers couldn't/wouldn't pony up the money and years for Prince and C.C. (two players as good and with MUCH better track records of health), what makes anyone think that they would for Hamilton?

 

Yes, this. Exactly.

 

As far as I can tell, these "rumors" about the Brewers pursuing Josh Hamilton are all based on one purely speculative piece out of Dallas. Nothing more.

 

...and it's Hamilton's agents' job to push any rumors to try to build up the market to sign the biggest deal possible. The fact that there are always reports looking for any "scoop" they can find makes it pretty easy to make it look like there's a big market for a player, even if there really isn't, especially since teams can't discuss players on other teams during the season (i.e. the Brewers can't disucss if they're interested or not).

 

If the Rangers don't extend Hamilton this season, next offseason will likely play out something like Pujols. A team (last year it was the Marlins) will show a lot of interest and create a "floor" for any other bidders. Then we'll hear a bunch of rumors of teams that are in or out of the bidding, and a big-money team will step in and sign him for something all the other teams will groan about. We'll then hear some analysis about how these deals rarely work out, and the same thing will happen next year.

[3and2Fastball]

I think speculation as to "such and such team is interested in Josh Hamilton" is true to the extent that every single MLB team, all 30 of them, are interested in Josh Hamilton. It all comes down to dollars and cents and if it makes sense. But every team would like Josh Hamilton on the roster...

[PrinceEatMeat]

If the Brewers couldn't/wouldn't pony up the money and years for Prince and C.C. (two players as good and with MUCH better track records of health), what makes anyone think that they would for Hamilton?

 

Yes, this. Exactly.

 

As far as I can tell, these "rumors" about the Brewers pursuing Josh Hamilton are all based on one purely speculative piece out of Dallas. Nothing more.

 

I'm in this boat as well. I feel that we would've just kept Fielder if we were looking at throwing huge money around. Not sure why Hamilton would be more enticing long-term than Fielder. It's all just speculation. He'll probably end up in New York or LA. Whoever pays the most. Imagine Hamilton and Kemp in one OF. That would be pretty insane. And Ethier in the same OF as well. I could see it happening.

[splitterpfj]

I'm sure Hamilton is going to get a huge contract, but I don't think he'll come close to what Prince got.

 

Why?

 

In his seasons with the Rangers, Hamilton has averaged 125 games played.

 

I think Hamilton will get more money than Jose Reyes got, because I think teams pay more for power...but his contract is a much better baseline in this case than Prince's deal is.

[Dollarbill13]

I'm sure Hamilton is going to get a huge contract, but I don't think he'll come close to what Prince got.

 

Why?

 

In his seasons with the Rangers, Hamilton has averaged 125 games played.

 

I think Hamilton will get more money than Jose Reyes got, because I think teams pay more for power...but his contract is a much better baseline in this case than Prince's deal is.

 

 

I think this is a pretty fair point but Reyes was coming off a 126 game season when he got his contract. If Hamilton misses 25-30 games this year, his contract will probably be more similar to Reyes. If he stays healthy this year, I bet some teams would "forget" about his injury history. A 150 game season from Hamilton will likely lead to a 6 or 7 year deal at more than 20MM per

[HiAndTight]

I'm sure Hamilton is going to get a huge contract, but I don't think he'll come close to what Prince got.

 

Why?

 

In his seasons with the Rangers, Hamilton has averaged 125 games played.

 

I think Hamilton will get more money than Jose Reyes got, because I think teams pay more for power...but his contract is a much better baseline in this case than Prince's deal is.

 

 

Exactly. These connections made are extremely flawed IMO. I don't think we'll sign him, but when CC left we didn't have nearly the revenues we have right now, and the guy he credits with saving his career would be his hitting coach.

Prince signed a contract I'm almost certain is 3-4 years longer and probably 100 million or close to it more expensive than Hamilton will get.

6 years 125 million is around what I think Hamilton will get. And frankly, we could swing that deal and a Greinke deal for 5 years and 115. We'd have to let Hart leave or trade him(most likely trade for a solid prospect), look to trade Weeks next year if he got off to a hot start and go with Gennett saving us around 20 million. Wolf, K-Rod and Marcum would save us roughly 30 million dollars.

 

You replace them with Peralta, Thornburg and Wooten for example and a cost effective reliever, or perhaps you move a Kyle Heckathorn to the pen where he can crank it up to 95-96 and you're spending 1.5 million where you were spending 30 million.

 

And really, you're only talking about adding maybe 9 million for Greinke from what he's making this year, and 25 million for Hamilton. So that's 34 million in added costs without Weeks in the equation and 50 million in money coming off the payroll(roughly).

 

It's so incredibly unlikely, but it IS possible. Depends on how serious the Brewers are about a WORLD SERIES. And then we'd still get Gamel back next year, bring Gonzalez back at about 2.5 million next year and trade for a guy like Jamey Carroll.

 

You could still....if you step through the closet into make believe, end up with a lower base salary than we had this year.

 

And AGAIN, I repeat myself, but, in terms of revenue'

We went from around 10 million in revenues according to Forbes to nearly 20 million which means we made twice as much last year when we spent about 96 million.

 

-We had 20 million in ADDITIONAL TV revenue.

-We have a new radio contract coming in....no idea how much that adds, but I'm guessing it's at the very least in the millions.

-We raised ticket prices over 2 dollars per ticket and we're drawing much-much stronger than we previously had in our record breaking season last year leading to as much as 6-8 million dollars in additional revenue.

 

And lets keep in mind, Mark A has made 240 or so million dollars over the last 7+ years which is 30 million a year in ADDITIONAL revenue that doesn't get counted in the conventional sense.

 

So do we have the money? Sure we do.

 

there are just 29 other teams that might throw a little wrench in our plans sadly...

[HiAndTight]

Oh, and one more thing. Hamilton's put up HUGE WAR numbers in those limited numbers of games played. I'd argue that with the Brewers OF depth, they may be as well equipped as most teams to withstand an injury to an OF'er for a period of time.

 

Not to mention that numbers a little skewed by one year. He's played 156 games, then 89, then 135 then 121 as well as just about every game this year.

 

And worst come to worst, he could be our 1st basemen of the future. His bat will play until he's 40 IMO. I doubt his legs will. Though I've maintained he won't get a contract through age 40. He'll get one through age 37 or so. Which is a safe risk.

 

And for the record, I don't really believe this is going to happen, I'm simply saying, that if the Brewers wanted to push, really push for a WS, they DO have the money right here and now to sign both these players while sacrificing others that can be replaced by league average players.

 

A potential lineup could include

CF-Aoki

2B-Weeks

3rd-RF Hamilton

4-LF Braun

5-3B Aram

6-1B Hart

7-C Lucroy

8-Gonzalez

*We could also trade Hart and go with Gamel at 1B while saving 10 million dollars, or a little bit more than what we'd be paying Greinke over what he's making this year. A more likely scenario.

With Gindl/Schafer replacing Hart the following year

Gennett replacing Weeks the following year

Aram entering the final year of his contract and possibly Taylor Green replacing him....at 3rd.

 

 

And you roll the dice that you are one of the lucky teams that gets two good long term contracts that hit and you put yourself in WS contention. You have get rid of a lot of fringe core pieces, but it IS possible. It is HIGHLY unlikely, but it is possible, even for those fans who cry poverty and constantly question how we can ever sign a marquee Free Agent. Well, the answer? We've never been in anywhere NEAR the same fiscal health we're in right now.

 

And we'd be risking that by making these two moves.

 

Hell, I'm not even behind the Hamilton move that much. Just trying to make the argument we could make it work these next couple years and if finances get tight, we have big contracts coming to an end.

 

And when Aram puts up a cumulative line of .285/.350/530 with 58 HR's and 180 RBI's the next couple years, I'm sure he'd be moveable to a team that wants or needs a 3rd basemen moving forward.

 

 

And ALL OF THIS assumes that we don't get a break out performance from ANY of our toolsy minor league players. We all know with 4 picks in the 1st round this year(two supp and 2 regular 1st) plus our picks last year, the D'Vontey Richardson's, the other talented players contributing anything.

 

 

 

I don't know, there are a million different ways this thing can go, but the bottom line is that we can't truly contend without Zach Greinke in the next few years, so if you can't contend, I contend you might as well move all pieces that have value, pieces that you wouldn't offer arbitration to(and right now I'd offer to Marcum and Greinke if Marcum continues with the season he's having as I doubt he'd take the 1 year deal, even at 13.5 over the security of a 5 year 65 million dollar deal, let Wolf walk and as I said, start a fire sale and fill that farm system up with as much talent as you possibly can.

[jerichoholicninja]

I will eat my hat live on webcam for all of Brewerfan.net nation to witness if Josh Hamilton signs with Milwaukee. We can dream all we want but it aint gonna happen.

[Invader3K]

This blogger (@TStads20) resurrects the Josh Hamilton rumors today: http://mrbadgertalksculture.wordpress.com/2012/06/30/the-domino-effect/

[PrinceEatMeat]

I saw this too. Doesn't shock me at all that they'd go after him. I think it'd a horrible idea to sign him to a huge long-term deal, especially instead of just giving the money to Greinke. Although, I doubt he signs here anyway, so it's probably a mute point.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm calling BS on this one.

[jmeks23]

The only connection being made is Jonny Narron. And the Brewers offense stinks (not necessarily indicative of him, but just sayin') so he might not even be around a year into Hamilton's contract, if he doesn't bite the bullet this offseason.

 

Hitting coaches for the most part are literally a dime a dozen, and are one of the most expendable coaching positions besides their counterpart pitching coaches. Jonny Narron would likely not last a whole 5-7 deal of Hamilton, and might not last the first year of it if they're struggling.