Speaking of Josh Hamilton (somebody had to) [Latest… Melvin: We have the connection with Narron but not with US Bank… post 230]

[KCBrewerfan34]

Gomez's value is probably at its peak, Melvin should strongly consider moving him (in the right deal).

[endaround]

Gomez and Bourn had comparable seasons last year. Bourn's wOBA was .326 and Gomez's was .329. Now obviously they provide value in different ways, but that actually makes Gomez more attractive when he can become a 25-50 or even 30-50 guy with full playing time. But Gomez could also easily crash.

[monty57]

Put this in a relative context.

 

If it would cost $12MM/year to extend Gomez:

 

1) Is he worth $11.5MM more per year than Schafer?

2) Is he worth $8-10MM more per year than Aoki, who could probably be extended to play CF?

3) To make this close to on topic, if Hamilton "only" costs $5-8MM more per season, does it make sense to extend Gomez rather than signing Hamilton?

4) If the budget makes it one or the other, does it make more sense to extend some of our young guys (pitchers, Segura, Schafer, Maldonado) to "Lucroy-type" deals rather than blowing a big chunk of cash on Gomez?

 

It seems to me that we have too many better options for it to make sense to extend Gomez.

[TooLiveBrew]

Toolivebrew,

 

Doug Melvin I believe in one of Tom H jsonline articles a couple years back said that big contracts to pitchers are more risky than position players. Does that mean he'd offer more to a position player?

I think that's a logical conclusion from that snippet. But remember Hamilton's camp floated the 5/$175M number, which to me says they're looking for $150M at the least. Still waaaaaay too much money for any team that stays sane. So with that said, maybe he winds up a Dodger?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Toolivebrew,

 

Doug Melvin I believe in one of Tom H jsonline articles a couple years back said that big contracts to pitchers are more risky than position players. Does that mean he'd offer more to a position player?

I think that's a logical conclusion from that snippet. But remember Hamilton's camp floated the 5/$175M number, which to me says they're looking for $150M at the least. Still waaaaaay too much money for any team that stays sane. So with that said, maybe he winds up a Dodger?

 

To be fair I think it was 7 years for $175 million or $25 million per year. Unless the Detroit owner cares even less than he did last year highly doubtful he gets that contract IMO.

[mothershipconnection]

I don't think any executive is putting Gomez in the same class as Bourn/Upton, not even close. Unless I am seriously underestimating how much the consensus opinion of him has changed over the course of last season.

 

Nobody else puts him there, but if history repeats itself, Boras will. All of his players are worth eleventeen bajillion dollars to him until the free agent market dictates that they're worth less.

[TooLiveBrew]

To be fair I think it was 7 years for $175 million or $25 million per year. Unless the Detroit owner cares even less than he did last year highly doubtful he gets that contract IMO.

Whoops, good catch. Thanks for correcting me. $34M AAV would be pretty bonkers!

[logan82]

To be fair I think it was 7 years for $175 million or $25 million per year. Unless the Detroit owner cares even less than he did last year highly doubtful he gets that contract IMO.

Whoops, good catch. Thanks for correcting me. $34M AAV would be pretty bonkers!

So is 7@$25m per for a 32 year old with a bad injury history.

[KCBrewerfan34]

So the Phillies are out, so is Boston and Tex will go only 3 years, does 4/80 or 5/100 get this done, lets go with our young pitching, tweak the bullpen and let's go for this.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Toolivebrew,

 

Doug Melvin I believe in one of Tom H jsonline articles a couple years back said that big contracts to pitchers are more risky than position players. Does that mean he'd offer more to a position player?

I think that's a logical conclusion from that snippet. But remember Hamilton's camp floated the 5/$175M number, which to me says they're looking for $150M at the least. Still waaaaaay too much money for any team that stays sane. So with that said, maybe he winds up a Dodger?

 

He could very well get 150M, and I think it's logical to assume he will, because lately there is always a team that will go crazy every year and it might just be a team that we least expect. I mean did anybody really expect the Reds to resign both Votto and Phillips? I know I didn't. I understand that they were re-signing their own players prior to FA, but still, they paid a hefty price for a team that doesn't draw much attendance.

 

I will be one of the shocked Brewers fans if the Brewers go out and sign Josh Hamilton, because that would be classified under the "risky" moves category and I've seen multiple quotes from the Brewers upper management about how they really have to consider risk when it comes to the player they are thinking about getting. It's nothing to brush over, and Hamilton's health history could very well be enough for the Brewers to just say immediately no way are we going to sign this guy. Plus, when is the last time the Brewers spent more than 42 million on a player in FA? That Suppan contract was such a disaster, even though it was only about 10-12 million a year, that I suspect it scared the Brewers partially away from FA and forced them to be smarter. I found this quote from Doug Melvin right after they released Suppan,

 

"When you enter into free-agent contracts, guys, it's one of the riskiest things to do," Melvin said. "We all get excited about the free-agent people that are out there, but there are not a lot of free-agent contracts with pitchers that you do get the full length of performance."

 

He makes it sound like FA is a last option and that we shouldn't jump into it unless we need to. I would agree with him that I'd rather focus on building from within and keeping our current position players, than take a big risk in FA. The Brewers don't really need Hamilton.

[brewcrewdue80]

My thoughts on Hamilton. A contract would have to be shipped. My guess is Ramirez. And Gomez? I recall Dodgers in the trade rumor on Ramirez. Do they still have a need at 3b? For Brewers having Hart at 1st the idea to lose Ramirez opens 3B to Green and Gamel. The 2years of salary loss for Ramirez may make it enough to sign Hamilton. That to me is about the only realm of reality to signing Hamilton is to move Ramirez. I realize you lose Ramirez's bat but he's now plugging up Green and Gamel seeing as Hart at 1b. And Brewers have discussed extension could mean Hart is staying 1b for awhile.

It seems to me nobody wants more than 3years of Hamilton's expected contract with injury risk/ aging. 4years for 88mil by Brewers w/o Ramirez?

[brewcrewdue80]

And with Gomez. For all that its said on Upton I think Gomez is better defender, better base stealer. He batted a better avg. Only trailed HRs. So to me I have the belief Gomez has all the rights to ask what Upton is asking. The truth and problem is Upton doesn't have the right to ask for what he's asking.

I see Upton as a Plague to the team that signs him. There's a reason Tampa has been No-hit/ had perfect games thrown against them in recent years. Upton. He has the "tools" to bat leadoff/2nd meaning top of your order. Problem is he doesn't have a good OB, BABIP, and a higher k% than what I would want at top of my order. But he's that 30/30 legitimate threat so you stick him up there. If Upton actually batted .280 and one what an OB% above .330 was I would be all for the money he's asking. But to stick someone at the top of your order for Less than .300OB! is ********! Not to mention if he does hit 30HRs meaning what 18% of all hits he's not on base ahead of your cleanup hitters. So your then looking at a guy who's likely on base 25% of the time for your 3/4batters if that. I just don't get the love for him.

Now back to Gomez. He's everything but the power Upton has. And its equal on hits let's just say so Gomez has edge on doubles/triples. There can't be but 5-8 extra runs in value by Upton over Gomez on a season. Now should Gomez bat .240 have 10-13hrs and only 20sbs 2013 he's worth less than Upton. And also not worth a top of the order spot as Brewers have used him.

This gets me on to bringing Hamilton on. You know where to stick him in lineup and he will produce what you expect. Gomez to me vs Aoki,Segura,Lucroy belongs at #7 in lineup. With 20/40 potential that's not going to make him happy in contract year. So my idea above. If Brewers could find a trade suitor for Ramirez and Gomez I'd bring on Hamilton 4 years. You have Schafer, Aoki to back him up, Hart to move back to RF Gamel/Lucroy to play 1b.

 

But w/o some salary dump on Brewers part I have no argument to bring Hamilton on right now.

[endaround]

1. Gamel can't play 3B.

 

2. Green at best is a platoon player.

 

3. Hamilton wasn't as good as Ramirez last year.

[splitterpfj]

To this point, it sounds like no one has offered Hamilton anything beyond four years.

 

We all saw Prince sit around last winter, then get a huge contract, so of course Hamilton could too...but right now, I still wouldn't rule the Brewers out if they decide they want him.

[endaround]

No one has signed a large FA contract yet. It hard to say Hamilton is being left out when there has been no movement by anyone.

[splitterpfj]

endaround, you're so right, it's very early, and things could change in a big way.

 

I don't think Josh is being, "left out", I just don't think he's going to come anywhere near the type of deal Fielder got. I think he'll get huge money per season, but five years is likely the longest anyone is going to go on this. Right now, I think four years is actually more likely.

 

Some teams are hoping he'll take a three-year deal at a little more money per season, but I would think someone will decide to add an extra year to get it done. If a big enough market is the team left out in the cold, he may get five years, but I'm willing to bet that's the ceiling.

 

I think his deal will end up being much closer to the money Milwaukee offered Prince than to what Detroit wound up giving him.

[splitterpfj]

The Tigers signed Prince, a much younger and more durable player to this point, through age 36, at 23.77 million per season.

 

Hamilton brings injury risk, and a history of substance abuse, which includes the use of alcohol again in his recent past. On the other hand, there is a ton of money available to team owners now, with their new national TV deal.

 

Let's say someone signs Hamilton through the same age Fielder is signed for, at the same money...that would put Hamilton at a 5-year, 119 million dollar contract this winter.

 

I'll go ahead and cap Hamilton's market at 5 years/125. My money is on something like 4 for 100 million.

 

IF the Brewers decide they want to, I think they could do a deal like that.

[DR28]

The Tigers signed Prince, a much younger and more durable player to this point, through age 36, at 23.77 million per season.

 

Hamilton brings injury risk, and a history of substance abuse, which includes the use of alcohol again in his recent past. On the other hand, there is a ton of money available to team owners now, with their new national TV deal.

 

Let's say someone signs Hamilton through the same age Fielder is signed for, at the same money...that would put Hamilton at a 5-year, 119 million dollar contract this winter.

 

I'll go ahead and cap Hamilton's market at 5 years/125. My money is on something like 4 for 100 million.

 

IF the Brewers decide they want to, I think they could do a deal like that.

 

I agree... I can see the Brewers signing Josh at 4/100 if he chooses.

[Warning Track Power]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31067/predictions-where-hamilton-ends-up

 

3 of the 11 questioned had the Brewers landing Hamilton with only the Rangers outpacing them with 4 of the 11.

 

Ugh...I am starting to get on board with the idea of Hamilton in Milwaukee. Maybe I am just bored with the Brewers relative inactivity and lack of rumors because it really doesn't make a whole heckuva of a lot of sense given the need for bullpen and presence of Gomez and Aoki.

[DoubleSwitch]

Moving Rami to fit in Hamilton would be incredibly foolish. Rami put up about equal numbers offensively and played plus defense at a position where we have very little depth, compared to Hamilton playing poor defense at a spot where we have lots of other options. I know some people still haven't come around to thinking Ramirez' contract was a good idea, but give me him at 2/26 + the option over Hamilton at 5/100 any day.

[Baldkin]

If they sign Josh Hamilton for upwards of 20 mil a season, it would be the dumbest signing in Brewers history.

 

Surpassing some of the all-time greats, such as YuniB, and Jeffery Hammonds.

[Bnowell4evr]

If they sign Josh Hamilton for upwards of 20 mil a season, it would be the dumbest signing in Brewers history.

 

Surpassing some of the all-time greats, such as YuniB, and Jeffery Hammonds.

 

YuniB wasn't a signing. We traded for him and had Zack Greinke thrown in

[TURBO]

Moving Rami to fit in Hamilton would be incredibly foolish. Rami put up about equal numbers offensively and played plus defense at a position where we have very little depth, compared to Hamilton playing poor defense at a spot where we have lots of other options. I know some people still haven't come around to thinking Ramirez' contract was a good idea, but give me him at 2/26 + the option over Hamilton at 5/100 any day.

 

This is what I'm thinking too... Good post!

 

[Ennder]

I saw an interesting segment on mlb network today that showed that Hamilton has feasted on weak pitching over the past 3 seasons but is only marginally above average against good pitching. Just one more reason to shy away from him imo. The best player in baseball against good pitching was Beltran... Molina and Jeter were up there which fits right into the notion that those guys are 'clutch' since you usually face good pitchers in clutch situations. I wish I could find an online reference to the study.

[SRB]

I have to say, I find it quite ridiculous how the media (and fans) are treating Hamilton like he is worthless simply because he has had a very public struggle with substance abuse. Do you know how many athletes are probably addicts? I'm sure it is a substantial number. (Even within the pantheon of Brewers greats, we all know of the problems that Paul Molitor overcame).

 

I feel like the (almost surely) made-up stories linking the Brewers to Hamilton simply because Narron is here now are part of that broader media bias against him. It is kind of offensive really.

 

For what it's worth, to me his injury-history is a legitimate concern, and I don't think I would favor giving him a huge deal. But not because he was open about overcoming addiction.